NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[DrippingGoofball]

Well, obviously Albert B. Rampage isn't a cop, so...

Obviously he is the cop, mathcam said so.

Go ahead and lynch me I'm vanilla.

[Untrod Tripod]

Vanilla scum

[MrBuddyLee]

and I'm not trying to back off my VitR or LML reads there. I still feel strongly about those.

Are you implying that you think VitR and LML are scum together? That doesn't feel likely to me at this point.

I don't recall saying I thought they were scum together. They're independent reads, and if we flip one as scum then I will reevaluate my reads on the game.

@UT

, please explain how you view VitR's attacks on LML.

Not ignoring this. I'll get back to you on that later today.

[MrBuddyLee]

@CES

, why mathcam? Also, what's your opinion of Bookitty now?

@Glork

, what are the main reasons you were looking closely at UT overnight? Do you think any of the Bookitty voters/non-LML voters are worth closer scrutiny?

@Mathcam

, you've said you screwed up the timing near-deadline and didn't post to help us get a lynch. I can't tell from your post--if CTD hadn't voted, would your visit to the site Wednesday have been in time to place the lynching vote? Why did you avoid posting in the 48 hours leading up to deadline?

@STD

, why did you start out the day voting PJ?

@Sotty

, what do you think of mathcam?

@Albert

, why did you vote cam right out of the blocks, even before he made his meandering case on you? Also, what do you think of the run-up on DGB?

@UT

, what's your take on Bookitty at this point?

@DGB

, what's your take on Bookitty at this point? Was yesterday's lynch horserace scum vs town or scum vs scum? Reason I ask is that two of your top suspects took the race from [ Bookitty(8) LML(4) ] to [ Bookitty(8) LML(6) ]. Have you considered all that when looking at KK and Poro?

[Save The Dragons]

@STD

, why did you start out the day voting PJ?

I still found him suspicious for some of his actions yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos:

(1) If CES is off the table, who would be next in line to pursue?

Like I said earlier, my main suspect list is CES, mathcam, and undo. I also tend to agree with your case on Glork, he seems a little bit off. And, like I said, I'm more suspicious of DGB then I was yesterday, because of the anti-town way she acted at the end of the day.

(2)

Since scum know who the town are, doesn't it make it easier to say XXXXX is town when you're scum?

Not really. The timing is everything.

Several times this game, DGB declared someone town just at at moment where I felt the same way. She's getting a lot of the same gut reads that I'm getting, and that's hard to fake as scum. Also, you can tell a lot about motivation based on timing; I don't see a scum wanting to declare SSK as town on page 5 where she did, for example.

I donno, maybe it's just because I've played with her so many times, but this feels like town-DGB play, specifically.

I'm interested in your opinion on your ability to read DGB in light of Real Life Results!: DBG declared LML town in D1 (Post 388), and DGB has since explained in D2 that her read was based off of LML's "emotional" posting (Post 910). Do you think her after-the-fact explanation matches up with the in-the-moment declaration?

I recognize that DGB did mention, indirectly, LML one other time in D1 -- when DGB said that a no-lynch was preferable to a LML-lynch -- but I don't think that's relevant to what I'm asking for here: how comfortable you are with your DGB-is-town determination based on her from-the-hip assessments?

Less so, certainly. Basically I have to balance my day 1 pro-town read on her with the fact that she acted in an anti-town way at the end of the day. If she's scum, her end-day defense of LML would have been remarkably blatant, but I'm not sure I would put that past her.

She still wouldn't be my first choice to lynch, we have other people who's behavior looks more unambiguity scummy, but I'm less confident, certainly.

[Yosarian2]

How on earth did you read that from what I wrote?

If you're innocent, I'm not outing a "cop," I'm just pretending to think ABR is a cop.

Only if you're scum, am I outing a cop, LOL. You said I outed ABR-cop who is hinting at a guilty on YOU. You just confessed scum.

Thanks!

...

You give me a massive headache, DGB.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Do you keep notes on the game?

No, I don't really do that anymore. These days I pretty much just respond to stuff directly in thread, comment on town-tells and scum-tells I see as soon as I notice them, ect. Which is why i often end up triple posting like this, heh. But I think it's usually more useful to share my thoughts like this as I have them, both town-tells and scum-tells, as it might help other people find scum as well.

[DrippingGoofball]

How on earth did you read that from what I wrote?

If you're innocent, I'm not outing a "cop," I'm just pretending to think ABR is a cop.

Only if you're scum, am I outing a cop, LOL. You said I outed ABR-cop who is hinting at a guilty on YOU. You just confessed scum.

Thanks!

...

You give me a massive headache, DGB.

Oh come on it's soooooo obvious

[CrashTextDummie]

Bookitty (7) -- Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, mathcam, undo, CrashTextDummie

We need to lynch from this player pool.

Vote: mathcam

Why not this player pool:

Kublai Khan (2) -- DrippingGoofball, LoudmouthLee
Porochaz (1) -- inHimshallibe
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Albert B. Rampage

?

I have no reason to trust PJ. I can't say that I know for certain that he's scum though.

Unvote, vote UT

This is acceptable.

Right.

Jesus that above post (bookitty's) is so town and explains a lot for me I just have one question.

I don't think that post is as strongly indicative of BooKitty town as you seem to, but it does make me feel a bit better about her, as it somewhat mitigates the rather large issue of how BooKitty suddenly arrived at such a strong scum read on LML.

Instead of merely going with a "look at the bandwagon" route, I went and reread the game with LML-is-scum tinted glasses. That was neat. And time consuming. Also I might have just been skimming at the end.

I would like to know how you reread the game with LML-is-scum tinted glasses and arrived at town reads on DGB and ABR.

@CTD: it's super weird that LML zeroed in on you in Post 661 for posting elsewhere on the site, but not in this thread. Like, why would he be checking to see if you, specifically, were posting elsewhere, as opposed to any of the other players in this game? Thoughts as to why that might be? Do you know what other areas of the site LML saw you posting?

There's only one area of the site he could have seen me posting in, as I am active in only one other game. The reason he would point this out was either to invite this line of questioning or to prepare an attack against me. You are asking me to guess though and you could have figured this out yourself. Another rather pointless inquiry on your part.

This is a bad vote. I am totally convinced PJ is obvtown now. The way that LML went after PJ seemed genuine, more real then his other attacks; LML he was really trying to lynch PJ, both because PJ was trying to lynch LML and because PJ looked lynchable. One of the big scumtells I had on LML was the difference between the PJ vote, who he seemed like he was really trying to lynch, and his other wagons, which looked like he didn't really care.

:goodposting:

DGB looks a little worse now, with her absurd "I'd rather lynch no one then LML" stuff at the end of the day; when would you ever rather no-lynch then lynch on day 1? This would be a bigger scumtell if it wasn't so blatent, but it's still pretty disturbing.

"Blatant" is pretty much the subtitle of DGB's scum handbook.

It's fucking HORRIBLE strategy to try to save a doomed Mafia Goon on Day One, when as soon as either you OR the goon in question dies, the other one is probably going to follow soon after. LML was dead weight. The play at that point is to cut your losses, not to try to carry that dead weight to victory. I think that LML's lament about being bused is at least partly true, because even he knew he was dead weight when he refused to claim, complained about being the lynch, then tried to claim Doc.

Disagree about LML having been "dead weight". BooKitty is living proof that narrowly surviving a deadline lynch can leave you in a pretty comfortable position. I don't think you've looked particularly villainous this game Glork, but we seriously aren't on the same wavelength here, reads-wise or otherwise.

Lynch mathcam. PLEASE lynch mathcam. EVERYBODY.

RABBLE RABBLE

ABR – he too pushed for LML votes early on, but unlike VitR, he didn’t present any solid motives for it. Still, he generally advocated for his lynch during the game. Plus, he was attacked by LML in post 110.

That is quite a head scratcher of an analysis. ABR was arguably the biggest advocate for not lynching LML.

Will post tonight.

inHim grabs a notepad and pen, writes down "CTD" on a page, tears it off, folds it, and sticks it into his pocket.

vote: CTD

I am in awe of the intricate and in-depth analysis you are putting on display.

Not much else I feel like commenting on, though I started skimming towards the end.

ABR is probably somewhat scummier to me than DGB, but she's a good lynch as well. Same goes for mathcam and, to a lesser extent, BooKitty still.

vote: DGB

[DrippingGoofball]

@DGB, what's your take on Bookitty at this point? Was yesterday's lynch horserace scum vs town or scum vs scum? Reason I ask is that two of your top suspects took the race from [ Bookitty(8) LML(4) ] to [ Bookitty(8) LML(6) ]. Have you considered all that when looking at KK and Poro?

I had not. Looks good for them both, actually.

[DrippingGoofball]

ABR is probably somewhat scummier to me than DGB, but she's a good lynch as well. Same goes for mathcam and, to a lesser extent, BooKitty still.

vote: DGB

So ABR & I are bus'ing mathcam according to your scum road map?

[Green Crayons]

@mathcam:

Seriously, DGB? Now you're taking a ridiculous stab at identifying a cop

and

outing said cop at the same time?

How is "taking a ridiculous stab at identifying a cop" different from "outing said cop"?

I'm trying to figure out the difference because I'm trying to figure out why this was your response to DGB's post.

-----

@CTD:

Instead of merely going with a "look at the bandwagon" route, I went and reread the game with LML-is-scum tinted glasses. That was neat. And time consuming. Also I might have just been skimming at the end.

I would like to know how you reread the game with LML-is-scum tinted glasses and arrived at town reads on DGB and ABR.

- DGB read is based off of a gut read of D1 + other players' opinions about her that I'm willing to trust.
- ABR read is based off of ABR's townposting. By the way, this is wrong:

ABR was arguably the biggest advocate for not lynching LML.

- It's wrong on its face because ABR was pro-lynching LML for a good majority of the day, with the only lull in that being after LML's post-weekend revivial. Hardly a contender for the title you want to bestow upon ABR.
- But it's also wrong in terms of who was the biggest "don't lynch LML" advocate. That would be Glork.

@CTD: it's super weird that LML zeroed in on you in Post 661 for posting elsewhere on the site, but not in this thread. Like, why would he be checking to see if you, specifically, were posting elsewhere, as opposed to any of the other players in this game? Thoughts as to why that might be? Do you know what other areas of the site LML saw you posting?

There's only one area of the site he could have seen me posting in, as I am active in only one other game. The reason he would point this out was either to invite this line of questioning or to prepare an attack against me. You are asking me to guess though and you could have figured this out yourself. Another rather pointless inquiry on your part.

This is pretty defensive and dismissive of a basic follow up to a scum flip.

- What is this one other area of the site, specifically, that you're active in? Is LML also involved in that game? I'm trying to figure out how he would have known you were posting elsewhere -- did it just flash up on his screen because he was in the same part of the forums as you, or did he have to go searching you out? Or, you know, did he know of your activity because scum might have daytalk? These are all possibilities that make my question far from "pointless."

- I'm asking for your speculation as to why LML-scum decided to focus on you, and on this particular aspect of your play. You know, because people usually look at who known scum suspected, and the strength of those reasons, in order to look for scum buddies. Your input, as the focus of LML's suspicion, is helpful for me to suss out your alignment.

[CrashTextDummie]

So ABR & I are bus'ing mathcam according to your scum road map?

Not very likely.

- What is this one other area of the site, specifically, that you're active in?

Would you like me to break site rules? I can't tell you anything more other than there's one other game I am active in.

- I'm asking for your speculation as to why LML-scum decided to focus on you, and on this particular aspect of your play. You know, because people usually look at who known scum suspected, and the strength of those reasons, in order to look for scum buddies. Your input, as the focus of LML's suspicion, is helpful for me to suss out your alignment.

I've given you the only answer I have. I can't read minds and I don't have inside knowledge into the machinations of the scumteam this game. If you want to speculate that LML pointing out my lack of activity here in relation to activity elsewhere is indicative of us being scum together, that's your business, but I literally see no point in asking me to speculate on the matter.

[Bookitty]

Now some follow-up questions for mathcam.

It should be noted that I did not realize your +1/-1 system would not even give

post numbers

.

I imagine this makes it difficult for you later on to interpret them, and so you are certainly correct that it makes it more difficult for anybody else to figure out what went on.

The bolded part is precisely my issue too. I actually thought mathcam was being sarcastic by posting naked figures with no support or reasoning with them. I don't think that now, though; I just don't see the point of the post at all.

I don't keep written notes (other than the pbpas I post in the thread from time to time) but I am starting to think I ought to.

[CrashTextDummie]

- It's wrong on its face because ABR was pro-lynching LML for a good majority of the day, with the only lull in that being after LML's post-weekend revivial. Hardly a contender for the title you want to bestow upon ABR.
- But it's also wrong in terms of who was the biggest "don't lynch LML" advocate. That would be Glork.

a) upon checking ABR's ISO, it's true that I overstated the extent of ABR's "don't lynch LML" campaign. I probably misattributed some of his pro-BooKitty posts based on memory.
b) Glork ended up on the LML lynch, so he is a smaller "don't lynch LML" advocate than ABR by default.

[undo]

b) Glork ended up on the LML lynch, so he is a smaller "don't lynch LML" advocate than ABR by default.

Glork jumped on the LML wagon immediately after the "bus" slip. Two posts before he was still saying "lynch anyone not named Glork, ABR, Bookitty, DGB, or Porochaz, and possibly LmL". Relevant course of events, methinks.

Second phase of my LML interactions analysis coming in about 12 hours.

[VitaminR]

Going to try and get caught up with the thread. First, Glork's case:

Re: My VitR feelings... In a nutshell, some of VitR's early stuff bothered me, and I think he fits the profile of someone who would hard-push LML as a scumbuddy. The way he switched to PJ, and then LML followed twenty posts later made me feel that the distancing was complete/successful. But then LML became a viable candidate, and VitR had to bus.

You have it backwards. Go read the thread. I worked hard to make LML a viable lynch candidate.

Specifically, VitR had been elbow deep up LML's rear for a bulk of the day, with some lingering mehhhhhPJ feelings. Then, VitR hauls off and voted PJ for an "opportunistic" on the very same LML, and LML follows onto PJ a mere 20 posts later.

I get that VitR thinks (and thought) that both LML and PJ were distancing/busing, but that raises a really, really important question. Why switch FROM LoudmouthLee TO petroleumjelly as the latter finally joined the former's wagon to make it substantial? PJ's move onto LML (combined with my move off of Seol) left LML tied for the leading vote getter. So what on earth compels VitR to decide that that's the appropriate time to derail a growing wagon on the guy he had been voting all day?

Hint: He really wanted an excuse to move specifically

away

from LML and

onto

petroleumjelly. The behavior doesn't make sense for someone who actually thought (and apparently still thinks) that both of them were scum together.

Day 1 I never really thought about LML and PJ being scum together, that was mostly a thought that coalesced reading the thread after the LML-flip. I suspected both of them for independent reasons. My switches from LML to pj and back were motivated mostly by indecisiveness and self-doubt, triggered by gut feelings that LML's frustration, and later pj's, were sincere.

I feel slightly better about Glork with this case than before.

[Green Crayons]

@CTD:

1. I didn't know giving any information more than "another game" would break site rules. But if it would, then obviously I don't want that.

2. For me, speculating why scum did what they did is part of figuring out who is/is not connected to them. For me, your "take" as to LML's actions are insightful because I can evaluate your own assessment in and of itself, and also compare it to my own meanderings. But if you have no further answer on the point, fair enough.

3. I disagree about who takes the crown, but maybe we agree that Glork was at least one of the major (if not the most) anti-LML-lynch advocates.

[Glork]

VitR: Not thinking about them being scum

together

seems fair.

GC: I don't think anyone (myself included) is denying they I defended LML hard during D1. That said, I'm a rather bus-happy player (not quite to the "pathological" level that MBL suggests of LML, but probably not far off). What specifically makes you think that I am LML's scumbuddy, and not just someone who was wrong and vocal on Day One?

MBL: I'm slightly less suspicious of CES than I was yesterday, but he's still on my radar. ABR uncharacteristically went silent from Sunday night until the end of D1, and showed up right at the start of Day Two. That might actually be a pretty good place to poke around.

[VitaminR]

Glork, you don't have more of a critical reply or anything? I gotta say your attack on me feels pretty lacking in enthusiasm and I'm not sure where that's coming from. I was feeling a little better about you after you outlined the reasons behind your suspicions, which seemed credible enough (I was also sort of swayed by your self-meta), and now you're undermining that again.

[Sotty7]

That does not suitably convey how ludicrous it was that you thought you would reveal your cop suspicion.

ABR is so obvious, Sherlock. I didn't "reveal" anything.

Also you're scum with a guilty on you so.

ABR plays like this all the time, why this time are you taking it one step further and feeling it's okay to float out there he could be the cop?

Right now I'm leaning town on mathcam. I was trying to understand his notes a little and I don't really get his inhim read but I'm still hooked on the early part of the game. I still think the opening SSK wagon was junk and that ScumLML was caught between him and the KK/Tigris wagon because he wanted freedom to ride either one. It doesn't feel like an attempted or weak bus to me and could very well mean both of these slots are town.

MBL is asking way too many questions with much too little analysis.

I don't think that post is as strongly indicative of BooKitty town as you seem to, but it does make me feel a bit better about her, as it somewhat mitigates the rather large issue of how BooKitty suddenly arrived at such a strong scum read on LML.

The big key was the whole thing was extremely reasonable. My biggest gripe on her was I felt her vote on PJ while hovering over LML to be full of holes and I was right, but for the wrong reasons. I'm happy to accept that and rule her town for it.

[VitaminR]

In other news: the mathcam-DGB back-and-forth was real weird and I can't make up my mind if that's just DGB plus mathcam being unsettled by DGB or if there's anything scummy there. That said, I think DGB has a point in saying that she's sort an easy target here (to reuse a phrase that ticked people off before) and I don't think the build-up of votes on her is really proportional to anything she's done.

inHim's entry into the game doesn't inspire any confidence.

MBL made some good points about LML's meta that I agree with. Following up on that and in response to Yos:

Eh. His attack on PJ just looked like a scum trying to get rid of a threat, and PJ at the time was a huge threat to LML. I commented at the time that his PJ vote looked very OMGUSish; I found the timing extremely suspicious, because LML turned on PJ right after PJ voted for LML.

Most of LML's voting patterns seemed to just be him doing fake scumhunting to try to look like he was doing something, none of it looked like he was really trying, but in PJ's case, I got the impression that LML really wanted him dead.

If you look at his voting pattern, most of LML's votes look like OMGUS votes, attacking people who were attacking him (STD, UT, PJ). PJ was the most serious threat, and the only one that had a real wagon on him, so he tried a lot harder on that one. He probably didn't go after BooKitty because BooKitty wasn't going after him for most of the day; if he had made a case on BooKitty, she probably would have turned on him, which would have lowered his odds of survival.

Also, the best case scenario for the scum team would have been a no-lynch on day 1, which almost happened, so he was probably perfectly happy trying to push a minor third-tier wagon at the end of the day to lower the odds of a lynch happening at all.

I don't think making a case on BooKitty would have lowered LML's chances of survival by that much. The BooKitty lynch got pretty close to happening at a time when LML wasn't really that close.

I think the best explanation for LML's behavior with regard to pj, which we both agree stood out, has them as scumbuddies. And everything you say about his pj vote fits perfectly well with that. LML's response to pj's attack was completely different to how he responded to you, or me, or GC, who also tried to put significant pressure on him. Sure, pj had three votes on him at the time, but I also had some suspicion coming my way early. I simply don't think viewing his response to pj as trying to eliminate a threat to himself makes sense when he otherwise didn't seem interested in playing for his own survival. It makes way more sense to me if he saw that there were two wagons on scum and figured linking them in this way would pay off (in exactly this way).

[Green Crayons]

GC: I don't think anyone (myself included) is denying they I defended LML hard during D1. That said, I'm a rather bus-happy player (not quite to the "pathological" level that MBL suggests of LML, but probably not far off).

What specifically makes you think that I am LML's scumbuddy, and not just someone who was wrong and vocal on Day One?

This is the second or third time you've self-meta'd in defense of your actions. I don't find it persuasive, and actually find it suspicious for the very obvious reason that it's manipulable by the very person who seeks to use it as a defense.

To respond to the bolded, I could just link to my Post 1069 and call it a day. And I could do that because my points against you don't really line up with your mischaracterization of my suspicions -- that is, what I set out in Post 1069 wasn't that you were just "wrong and vocal." So I will simply indicate how each point does not fall under the umbrella of simply calling you "wrong and vocal."

1. Post 1069's Point (1): soft defending LML-scum on Page 5 nips suspicion in the bud while still being early enough in the game that you don't have any established connections for your defense to get linked to. This is a scum motivated action.

2. Post 1069's Point (2): your actions as described -- which notes that you go above and beyond merely being wrong about LML (of course, merely being wrong is not alignment indicative) -- is scum motivated play.

3. Post 1069's Point (3): your actions as described -- which notes your LML vote being opportunistic after being incredibly anti-LML-lynch all D1 -- is scum motivated play.

4. Post 1069's Point (4): this point does not describe your play, but LML's, and is therefore completely unrelated to your mischaracterization of my suspicions.

5. Post 1069's Point (5): this point does not pertain to your play in relation to LML, but instead notes that your play is pretty conservative and safe and scummy, and is therefore completely unrelated to your mischaracterization of my suspicions.

[Green Crayons]

Vitamin, please stick around for a while. I like your posts.