Plotting The Caper

[Blackberry]

/in!

[Blackberry]

Question: If someone other than the boss is arrested, is that person automatically excluded from the team?

No. They continue in the game unrevealed and can be put on the team.

That makes it a risk-reward play for the cops...if they miss,

they've confirmed someone as non-cop

at the very least, which helps the Boss.

This is an incorrect statement.

[Blackberry]

/confirm

[Blackberry]

This game seems rather easy actually. If we play our cards right, we are guaranteed a 50%

or better

of winning.

I can reveal how this is possible when we near the end, first I suggest we claim. I would propose the following:

Everyone first claim whether they're henchman, specialist or mercenary (NO STATS).
Second, based on claims, we either have henchman or specialist claim next:
Start with everyone claiming their LOWEST stat, then go in reverse order with everyone claiming their HIGHEST stat (ie, no one claims first or last if we all claim in reverse).

At first I was convinced the head honcho should claim specialist, but honestly it doesn't matter. Because when all is revealed head honcho takes himself out of the equation.

It is however, incredibly important, that no town lie about their role.

Btw, once everyone has claimed their role I can elaborate how we have 50+% but must wait till we all claim. I also have a trick up my sleeve for the mercenary to join us >=].

I am a SPECIALIST.

[Blackberry]

We don't want the Mercenary to join us though... he sucks, lol.

Once everyone has claimed role, I can actually explain how the Mercenary can be

very

helpful to us and himself.

Role claims first though, because I don't want to give Mafia/Mercenary any ideas of how they should claim.

[Blackberry]

Short & Simple Story:

We are guaranteed to win by the Mob Boss's pick.

Me: 5 Explosives; 3 Safecracking, 1 Driving

MOB BOSS:

Just pick Mitillos (+5), one of me/Aronis (+5), and anyone (+?) (it literally doesn't matter who) and we win

EVERYONE:

At this time I suggest none of the non-Specialists say anything more. If you're town, we're going to win this unless you say anything to give away or narrow down the Mob Boss. So I propose we all just do absolutely nothing.

Longer Story:

I technically was wrong about what I thought was a guaranteed 50% or higher, as I made a default assumption that there was a specialist in each category. However, it doesn't matter, because I believe the Cops and Merc all made a terrible decision not to claim Specialist. By not claiming specialist they just practically guaranteed their loss (Cops can technically still win if they correct identify the mob boss).

I'll go into further detail of my initial thoughts of the game as to how I assumed it would play out:

I assumed: Cops & Merc would claim Specialist, and that Mob Boss would too (remember how I mentioned I first though Mob Boss should pick Specialist? I remember why, the Mob Boss should claim the role that the majority picks, so he in fact did us a good by not claiming Specialist in this particular game). But when Mob Boss makes his decision there'd be only 6 Specialist claims.

To Win: There is literally only two smart choices for the Mob Boss.

Scenario 1 (best option): Pick 3 specialists, even if 1 specialist is a Cop/Merc, we still win because the points will be above 10, the only way to lose in this scenario would be if 2/3 picks were incorrect. So if there were 6 specialist claims it's 50/50 that we win, and this is where I could lead into scenario 2 and entice the Merc to claim and that he'd be picked.

Scenario 2: Pick 1 specialist (+5), 1 Uncounterclaimed Henchman (+3), and either the other Henchman (+3) or the Merc (+2). This would give us 10 and a win. The only thing here is selecting the correct Specialist. So if 6 specialists had claimed and the Merc had come to our side and outed himself, we then had a 3/5 chance of picking the correct Specialists (i.e., bumping us up to a 60% chance of winning).

However, there is a MAJOR flaw in Scenario 1, in that I assumed any combination of specialists could be picked, I didn't really take into consideration that the real specialists may specialize in the same thing.

For future games, I still believe the best scenario is for Cops, Merc, and Mob Boss to all claim Specialists and then things can play out from there. I'm actually more intrigued by this game now that I realize my math was incorrect.

But we're guaranteed the win this game as long as Cops don't lynch Mob Boss, so I propose we all just shush until deadline passes. XD

[Blackberry]

No repeats. So the specialists do not actually specialize in the same thing.

This is incorrect. There are no repeats

in stats

. Specialists may have the same 5 Skill and have different stats (i.e. 5, 3, 1 vs 5, 1, 3).

No repeats. So the specialists do not actually specialize in the same thing.

Blackberry and Aronis claimed same specialty with different secondary skills. That's possible, I believe.

Mod: Confirm that it's possible for there to be two specialists with the same 5 skill but different 3 skills?

This is correct.

[Blackberry]

There is no need for claiming. We have three confirmed specialists - no one else matters (lol).

Seriously, 60% of the henchmen claims are lying. We do NOT want them to claim. If two henchman claim and the mob boss is unfortunate to counterclaim one of them the cops will know who is the mob boss. The ONLY way we lose is if the cops arrest the boss. I have faith the boss isn't dumb enough to pick 2 henchman claims when we have three confirmed roles that guarantee a win.

This has literally turned into a waiting game to see who the cops arrest. The fewer information we give them the better.

[Blackberry]

What the hell third specialist?!

So gamsimbre lost us the mission. Oh well. I guess I should've pushed harder to be taken as explosives, but it'd help if the specialists actually claimed.

If gamsimbre had claimed it still would have been 50/50 chance of winning like it was.

Several people made bad calls:

Specialist should have claimed - although after I claimed my stats, I made it very difficult for gamsimbre to claim and not look suspect.

Merc should have claimed Specialist - claiming Henchman is pretty much playing against your wincon cuz you won't get picked

I personally think it's a fallacy to go for the "highest" score (although I assumed mob boss would be of this mentality and thus why I calculated my claim as such). But I suppose depending on the situation it could be beneficial if there was the potential one of them was a merc.

Cop Telo should have attempted an arrest. We only had a 50% of winning under the current circumstance. There was no reason not to attempt an arrest. You being confirmed cop does not hurt us. Do you mind if I ask why you didn't do so?

[Blackberry]

I was waiting for someone to counterclaim you. As long as they didn't I was pretty sure you were going on the caper and we would win. I didn't need to arrest anyone. I checked it right up to the last minute. Honestly I was going to pick gamsibre because I thought the only reason he wasn't posting was because he was mob boss.

I would have gone for gamsimbre too, only because a 5th henchman made more sense if gamsimbre was Mob Boss trying to fit in. MoS was my 2nd choice though because I didn't think MoS was Merc, I suspect MoS was Mob Boss or the real specialist screwing around or something.

Pros of Arresting: 20% chance of arresting cop, thus, our 50% of winning becomes 60%
Cons of Arresting: None

Thus, one should have arrested.

[Blackberry]

BBMolla

- I do think you should host another one though ^_^. I actually think it's an interesting game idea that hasn't been tapped for its full potential in terms of how it can be played.

A few rule suggestions (these are just my suggestions):

1. If a Cop makes an arrest within the last 24 hours before deadline, the deadline gets extended by 24 hours. If I had made an arrest 1 minute before deadline, I would have still been on the Caper, even though I had just outted myself. I feel this goes against the intention of the Cops blowing their cover.
2. Allow Cops to talk in private, maybe even if just a little bit before the game, as to mimic a real life scenario where cops would plan ahead of time .
3. Shorter deadline, or some mechanic that permits players to vote on a shorter deadline maybe, i.e, "Let's decide which night we'll commit the Caper"?