NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Save The Dragons]

Is your scumputer crap?

[chamber]

Is your scumputer crap?

Yes. You can see me tearing it a part in oldy1, though she seems to have incorporated some of my criticisms from then.

[Save The Dragons]

I've honestly never seen it before. I think my point is valid about bias on finding wagoners, but I've only looked at it for 30 minutes.

You should be saying that the scumputer is crap because I'm scum.

Not because it favors wagon-happy players.

I think you know I'm town.

Ah! I lost it...where did that damn thing go? Oh...I knew I had it when day began. Where is it? Where is my blasted vote? Oh! There it is. You have it!

[petroleumjelly]

Busy (and I had sort of mentally clocked out of this game, thought it looks like I need to do some overtime...)

Not interested in the Scumputer in the slightest. It is based on flawed reasoning and I grant it little to no weight (especially given the selectivity involved and the fact that DrippingGoofball exempts herself as Town and acts like it is nevertheless objective information; but even then I do not agree with the premise that large wagons necessarily have scum on them). I feel have argued with DrippingGoofball over this type of analysis in the past. I prefer reasons, not "there is probably a scum on this wagon."

1.)

chamber, please answer my questions from yesterday, seeing as we are both still alive. Thanks.

2.)

Albert B. Rampage, I am not interested in "teaming up with you" when you are still plausible scum. Even if I thought you were very likely Town I would not be interested -- I don't engage in voting blocs. I will look into your claimed suspicions when I have more time, though.

Also, if you think my suspicions are terrible,

explain why

. I am willing (and often

do

) change my mind on players, but just saying I suck without more is not going to do anything to get me into your thought process.

3.)

Fairly certain I want to lynch DrippingGoofball. Would not be displeased with a mathcam lynch. I fully endorse pressure on SpyreX. As mentioned, the slot has been absent for two down-to-the-wire game Days. One does not agree to replace in near a deadline and then

not post or vote

.

Vote: SpyreX

[MrBuddyLee]

DGB, when you get a chance, can you please answer my question to you about MafiaSSK from earlier today? Still looking for a follow-up answer from Albert as well.


@Crayons, I initially swung to townish on KK for the timing and effect of the vote he placed on LML. Unless Bookitty is scum, it was pretty townish of KK to place the vote on LML that took it from 8-5 Bookitty to 8-6. It doesn't make KK a lock for town but it's a fairly significant vote imo. A momentum changer that puts LML within reach. Why would scum do that? Would be really bad, stupid, selfish scum play imo.

LML didn't reaaally go after Tigris/KK aggressively D1 in the manner that he'd go after a scumpartner he's busing. The only thing LML did towards that slot that looks possibly suspect is kind of waffle about ever finding her suspicious as he dropped off the early five person Tigris wagon to hop on StD. Voting KK near deadline looked more like a survival tactic than a distancing tactic but isn't much evidence on its own.

D2, KK defended both PJ and undo from attack and didn't join their wagons. Said the undo wagon was a terrible lynch wagon.

That was all before Glork flipped. I wasn't thrilled with KK's push on Glork, as he stubbornly disagreed with pro-Glork points, but at least he addressed them in a way that seemed somewhat believable. KK defending mathcam near-deadline lines up to an extent with my analysis of MafiaSSK/mathcam.

That's the evolution of my thoughts on KK.

Also, @Crayons, you're bad at reading and/or deceptive:

But, here, let me do a quick quote wall to underscore the point.

You cherrypicked two things I pointed out that had been previously pointed out, then quoted three unique things I found suspicious but you lumped it all in as "VCA criticism" even if those specific critiques had never been made by anyone else. Is LML forgetting to take into consideration that Nati might be scum relevant? Definitely, but not according to you.

And then you ignored the other four or five valid and unique points I made in post 820 about LML's interactions with PJ and Glork and how they made sense from an "LML is scum" perspective. Because to do so would be to admit you were wrong in one point out of six that you made against me.

Basically, your effort to characterize my LML post on deadline-eve as rehashed garbage is deceptive and total BS.

You were too busy listening to yourself talk yesterday to open your eyes and give the pro-town Glork evidence a fair look. You actually refused to acknowledge ANY validity to ANY of the Glork=pro-town arguments made by myself, Glork, or as far as I can remember, anyone else. Never a single "oh, good point there, I'll think about it". Do you realize what that says about your playstyle? (And we'll assume for the sake of argument that you are town.)

I could keep trying to point out the backwardness of GC's approach to "determining" my alignment, but he's clearly beyond reasoning with.

When you lock on, you're too busy being right to allow your mind to be changed by good arguments.

[SpyreX]

SpyreX said availability was going to be an issue. In fact, if it doesn't get better I will replace out in the next day or so.

But, I will give the unabridged synopsis from catching up that I wrote out during night. Which has already proven to be awesomely wrong.

This Group:
Chamber
MrBuddyLee
DrippingGoofball
undo
Petroleumjelly
Albert B. Rampage
VitaminR
Yosarian2
Bookitty

Lynches This Group:
CrashtextDummie
Untrod Tripod
Cogito Ergo Sum
Save the Dragons
mathcam

And Shakes the Shit out of:
Porochaz
Sotty7
Green Crayons
Kublai Khan

Before I got to the end of D2, I wanted both undo and PJ dead. So masons makes perfect sense there since its apparently undecipherable from scum. That top group has maaaybe 1 scum in it. Of that group, I'm more worried that I've been sucked in by MBL or ABR than anyone else and I really doubt either of them.

In the shakers I liked tigris more than I've liked KK thus far. The no-push on my slot gives me a lot of pause for scum-KK though. Its such an easy apple to bite from.
Sotty wins the "I've forgot they're in this game" WHILE I was rereading and they get talked about, but never really pushed. I can't decide if this is more a wait for later mislynch or just under the radar scumbolina.
GC is the inability to decide. I read it and I like them, but I can't come to a decision. Which is the inverse of poro whom I've 180'd on back and forth and back and forth as the game progressed.

As for the last group.
CTD's been riding the hammer cred pony way too hard. Most of his stances are contrarian for the sake of it (see the weird play on Yos's reads).
UT's joined in the hardest when fighting with DGB in a way that isn't helpful or useful.
CES's eletric hardon for the Seoul slot is probably the single greatest mystery that I would love the bullet point list of. I really call it suspect with the d1 juggle on bookitty.
STD's response to Zor was less playing the game and more defusing the bomb. Now, I'm the position of knowing Zor was town so its easier to see but a reread of that interaction knowing that makes it stand out.
SSK was oddly detached from the meat of the game and playing professor and not playing town. mathcam can be boiled down to not agreeing with almost anything said and not from that cross-eyed hes town mindset.

Major things I'd love to figure out:
Shanba makes almost no sense for the NK. I'd assume there was a crumb of some sort, but I never saw it. That means scum wanted to keep the status quo at best and ??? at worst.
The jump from LML to Bookitty is the giant flag and the sheer raw clingy hatred from some *cough*CES*cough* reaaaallly shouldn't have slid as hard as it did.

---

I'm not caught up with anything from today except for the flips. If I am not tomorrow night, I will replace out. 1 game is hard, 2 is proving to be impossible and I apologize.

[SpyreX]

Aww DGB <3

Unvote, Vote: STD

[Sotty7]

Well the scumputer is null since she does it all the time. But if it is basically down to who wagons more I'm not too interested in the numbers. I think town are just as likely to wagon as scum. The most important bits of information are those vote counts, at least to me.

Really don't like the STD vote from Spy so vote stays.

[Bookitty]

I have seen the scumputer catch scum before. I think I have a better handle on how it works now, having done some of the calculations myself.

That said, I think we need more scum flips before it's going to be really accurate. Also, it isn't taking into account that there have been wagons on mathcam and myself (and to a lesser degree KK). I know this doesn't help me, but I think having a big wagon on you ought to be factored in somehow. Some wagons are on scum, who generally won't be voting themselves. PJ and Undo are town, Yosarian2 is my most confident townread, and I have some others who have established pretty good towncred in my eyes, so it's already narrowed down pretty significantly for me.

I'm going to go with my own suspicions today and

VOTE: mathcam

[Green Crayons]

UNVOTE: MBL
VOTE: mathcam

-----

I'm not following the "scumcomputer" posts. When DGB hits her conclusion, which will hopefully come with a vote, I hope she will provide a small synopsis of why she's voting it.

-----

Between D2 and D3, Sotty has said about five or six things that have come straight out of my mind. I'm comfortable with her being town again.

[DrippingGoofball]

You said "yosarian looks really bad." Why? You said VitR, Poro look better, CES looks worse. Why? ...etc.

Those that look worse do so because while they were on few wagons, they tended to be on wagon with high probability of the remaining players being scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

Ah! I lost it...where did that damn thing go? Oh...I knew I had it when day began. Where is it? Where is my blasted vote? Oh! There it is. You have it!

It's not because you're voting me that you don't know I'm town, if you get my drift.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB, when you get a chance, can you please answer my question to you about MafiaSSK from earlier today?

I tried and couldn't find it.

[DrippingGoofball]

But if it is basically down to who wagons more I'm not too interested in the numbers. I think town are just as likely to wagon as scum.

No no no no no

It's who unflipped on the wagons most likely to yield scum.

It's based on a random distribution of scum on wagons, and excuse me, but there are always a few scums on a typical team that wagon hard.

TOTALS
68.2 Sotty7
60.1 Save the Dragons
55.7 Albert B. Rampage
37.2 Cogito Ergo Sum
35.3 Tigris/KublaiKhan
35.1 Porochaz
34.2 MafiaSSK/mathcam
33.0 VitaminR
31.8 Green Crayons
29.5 Yosarian2
29.3 Seol/Bookitty
18.1 chamber
18.0 MrBuddyLee

NUMBER OF WAGONS
8 Save the Dragons
7 Albert B. Rampage
6 Sotty7
6 Seol/Bookitty
5 Porochaz
5 VitaminR
4 Green Crayons
4 MafiaSSK/mathcam
4 Cogito Ergo Sum
4 Tigris/KublaiKhan
2 chamber
2 Yosarian2
2 MrBuddyLee

AVERAGE POINTS PER WAGON
14.7 Yosarian2
11.4 Sotty7
9.3 Cogito Ergo Sum
9.0 chamber
9.0 MrBuddyLee
8.8 Tigris/KublaiKhan
8.5 MafiaSSK/mathcam
8.0 Green Crayons
8.0 Albert B. Rampage
7.5 Save the Dragons
7.0 Porochaz
6.6 VitaminR
4.9 Seol/Bookitty

WHO LOOKS BAD TO ME? You can draw your own conclusions. These are mine.

Sotty7 > CES = high total + high average
Tigris/KublaiKhan > mathcam > GreenCrayons = middle high total + middle high average
Yosarian2 > chamber > MBL = standouts on a few wagons, but the small number makes it more jumpy, so I'm not too worried about these players yet.

SPECIAL NOTE: These 4 players have a low rating because they were on a relatively small maxwagon with one flipped scum (LML)
7.5 Save the Dragons
7.0 Porochaz
6.6 VitaminR
4.9 Seol/Bookitty

It was THIS wagon in particular, on a townie:

petroleumjelly

(5) -- Albert B. Rampage, Save the Dragons, VitaminR,

LoudmouthLee

, Seol/Bookitty

[Bookitty]

@MOD:

Can we please have a prod on Kublai Khan? He hasn't posted yet this game day.

Also:

@Kublai Khan:

Who are your top suspicions now that Glork has flipped town?

[Albert B. Rampage]

@MBL

I've played similarly to VitaminR when bussing on Day 1. It's a good strategy. His posts are crafted to be imperceptible from his town game, so I give no credance to any read of VitaminR Day 1. It's easy to fake being town for the first day, especially when you're trying to earn townie points by bussing a partner.

I'm so sure of my suspicion, that I will change my vote.

Unvote mathcam, vote VitaminR

I'm also open to voting CES.

[mathcam]

I'm sorry, DGB, and I really don't mean this at all personally, but the scumputer still reads like total nonsense to me. If it's just an exercise in probability, then I think there's no merit whatsoever. When one person reveals to be town, that raises the random probability that every given person is scum by exactly the same amount, regardless of what wagons they were on. So knowing how many times who was on what wagon cannot possibly give information about their scumminess or townliness. So I assume there's some mafia-theoretic background that you're incorporating to make this not just about random distributions, then I think those assumptions need to be made explicit, because

that's

what your argument is really being based on. Are you

assuming

there is at least one scum on every wagon that lynches a town? On every wagon of at least 5-6 people? On just those wagons you deem suspicious? If so, those are assumptions that need to be justified, or at least stated, and

not

by probabilstic arguments (because these assumptions are being used to

deviate

from the random distribution of scum model -- if you say "By probability, it's very likely that there's scum on suchandsuch wagon, you can't then go back and reason with the random probability values for people on that wagon, since you've manipulated those values with your assumptions).

I have not sifted through all of your data (and to be honest don't really intend to), but I'm curious as to how I can be your preferred lynch of the day given that I seem to be almost perfectly average with regard to all of your scum metrics.

I still owe you guys an actual contribution to finding scum, instead of just dismissing/deflecting/absorbing attacks on me. I'm trying.

[Green Crayons]

@CES:

how do you feel about Vitamin vouching for you?

[Yosarian2]

You said "yosarian looks really bad." Why? You said VitR, Poro look better, CES looks worse. Why? ...etc.

Those that look worse do so because while they were on few wagons, they tended to be on wagon with high probability of the remaining players being scum.

You know, the only reason I wasn't on many wagons yesterday is because I was on CES most of the day and nobody else would join me. And since CES is pretty obvscum at this point, I don't see how that's supposed to be an argument against me.

[mathcam]

I'm trrying to go back and ISO everyone. This is taking a long time (4 out of 14 or so done, and I'm going to have to stop this to do actual work for a while), but so far, I'm pretty down with a CES lynch.

12) Cogito Ergo Sum -- Not much on day one, though Yos makes some reasonable points here and there. He's pretty adamantly anti-BooKitty, to the point that he's defending LML at her expense. Posts 670 and 679 feel weird to the point of scumminess. Supsicious quote: "The LML wagon is play-style based but has some merit." I'm also interested in the start of his day 2 behavior, where he seems confused that I wouldn't be more anti-BooKitty...almost get a "Darn, was expecting some more fireworks here" feeling from him, as if he and the rest of the scum had planned over night that BooKitty vs. mathcam was going to be the big fight of the day. His buddying with chamber is really weird to me, defending him a couple of times and deferring his vote to chamber's on multiple occasions. I will be interested in thinking about chamber, porochaz, and BooKitty regardless of how CES flips.

(Brief summary of expressed opinions: Anti-Seol, "Scum team: Seol/ABR/Green Crayons/DrippingGoofball/Porochaz", then pro-Porochaz, ant-BooKitty for arguments against LML, pretty anti-BooKitty, LML wagon is playstyle-based but has some merit, votes undo weirdly, 1492: "I'll vote PJ if chamber does"?, switches to me on mason reveal, calls me a compromise deadline lynch, back to me on day 3 presumably still for being standoffish and univolved).

Vote: CES.

[DrippingGoofball]

So I assume there's some mafia-theoretic background that you're incorporating to make this not just about random distributions, then I think those assumptions need to be made explicit

Yes. Scum will wagon more. Sure you'll have some outliers, but generally scum wagons more, that's why the scumputer works. Plus, the scumputer does work.

[DrippingGoofball]

Are you

assuming

there is at least one scum on every wagon that lynches a town?

No, I'm assigning the probability of scum being on a wagon assuming that they are randomly distributed. Except that they're not in reality randomly distributed; there will be more scum on any wagon. It's really hard when you're scum having your scum team stay off a wagon and actually reach a lynch. Trust me, I've tried to pull that off with my buddies a few times and it's nearly impossible especially early in the game when you need a BIG wagon to lynch.

On every wagon of at least 5-6 people? On just those wagons you deem suspicious?

I took wagons of >5 people at their maximum length.

If so, those are assumptions that need to be justified, or at least stated, and

not

by probabilstic arguments (because these assumptions are being used to

deviate

from the random distribution of scum model -- if you say "By probability, it's very likely that there's scum on suchandsuch wagon, you can't then go back and reason with the random probability values for people on that wagon, since you've manipulated those values with your assumptions).

It really does look like you've made zero effort to understand what I'm doing and are only interested in shooting it down.

I have not sifted through all of your data (and to be honest don't really intend to), but I'm curious as to how I can be your preferred lynch of the day given that I seem to be almost perfectly average with regard to all of your scum metrics.

Yeah and it really shows. Are you my preferred lynch of the day? So far I voted STD, and SpyreX. Are you paranoid maybe a little?

I still owe you guys an actual contribution to finding scum, instead of just dismissing/deflecting/absorbing attacks on me. I'm trying.

Save yourself some trouble and name your buddies?

[Albert B. Rampage]

@DGB Would you mind doing a proof of concept of your system on this game? http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=47172

[DrippingGoofball]

@DGB Would you mind doing a proof of concept of your system on this game? http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=47172

No thanks I don't have 6 solid hours.

[Albert B. Rampage]

How about if you only used data available on Day 3? It's a short game.