NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Bookitty]

I'm going to be busy for much of today, so I'm going to make that hypo vote a real one to make sure we can lynch today if that's the decision.

VOTE: Save the Dragons

[Albert B. Rampage]

Save the Dragons (6) -- chamber, SpyreX, DrippingGoofball, mathcam, Green Crayons, Yosarian2

[DrippingGoofball]

Sotty you're pulling at my heartstrings with #3271. I think you nailed it.

[DrippingGoofball]

Save the Dragons (7) -- chamber, SpyreX, DrippingGoofball, mathcam, Green Crayons, Yosarian2, Bookitty

L-2

[Albert B. Rampage]

ninja'd

[mathcam]

ABR not voting STD is totally weird to me. For all we know, Patrick's got a list of people that have expressed interest in replacing, and it'll just take a couple of days for them to confirm they're still in. I don't envy Patrick's task, but if STD is the right lynch, then we should do it.

[Yosarian2]

This isn't a threat. It's a simple statement of fact. There are 4 scum left, and considering the number of confirmed townies and obvious townies, and the pairs of people who can't possibly be scum with each other (you and chamber, OGML and Albert, ect), I think there has to be exactally one scum in the group of (DGB, STD). I have trouble coming up with a scum group that doesn't include one of them. Do you disagree?

Yes. There's so many players left, including two useless hard-to-read lurker slots (SpyreX, OGML). Even if we exclude you and me and all of the pairs you list, how about MBL, or GC, or BooKitty, or Poro? Are you so certain of all of your reads? I can easily think of lots of four-player scum groups that fit your constraints. It seems totally fake to claim that one of DGB and StD

has

to be scum.

1) Chamber
2) Porochaz
5) MrBuddyLee
6) DrippingGoofball
8) undo
9) Sotty7
11) Juls (replacing petroleumjelly)
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)
15) Albert B. Rampage
16) Green Crayons
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)
18) VitaminR
19) Save the Dragons
20) Yosarian2
21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)
22) OhGodMyLife (replacing Kublai Khan who replaced Tigris)

First, eliminate the 3 masoons.

Poro, GC, and Bookitty are pretty clearly all town. Bookitty is town because of the day 1 wagon, I'm pretty confident Green Crayons was not scum with LML from the way he helped lynch him on day 1, and Poro is just obvtown.

OGML is also likely town; he's hard to read sometimes, but all of his posting since he joined the game has given me a good vibe.

I also really don't see mathcam as scum. He's looking increasingly townie as the game goes on. Out of all my remaining town reads, this is one that might be wrong, but let's assume not for the moment.

We're left with

1) Chamber
5) MrBuddyLee
6) DrippingGoofball
15) Albert B. Rampage
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)
18) VitaminR
19) Save the Dragons

VitR and Chamber are probably not scum together.

DGB and STD are not scum together. (I already thought so, but the way DGB responded to my "trap" totally confirmed that.)

ABR can't really be scum with most of the people on the list.

MBL probably isn't scum with VitR

I don't think mathcam can be scum with either DGB or STD, considering the way he's attacked both of them

So, assuming 4 scum left, the scum are probably:

(DGB or STD) + (VitR or Chamber) + Spyrex + someone else (maybe MBL? Maybe OGML? Or maybe one of my other town reads are wrong?)

or maybe

(DGB or STD) + (Spyrex) + MBL + OGML? But I don't really think that makes sense.

I really can't construct a plausible scum group that doesn't include either DGB or STD. Can you?

In any case, we probably should be able to win this game through process of elimination lynching at this point. But if we can lynch the *right* one out of the STD/DGB pair first, then the other one is basically confirmed town in my mind, which dramatically increases our chances of winning.

[Albert B. Rampage]

OGML is also likely town; he's hard to read sometimes, but all of his posting since he joined the game has given me a good vibe.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Wrong on so many levels.

[Yosarian2]

To be clear, there *are* scenerios that don't include either DGB or STD, they just seem very unlikely.

And, if there was any doubt, of *course* I'm not actually suggesting we auto-lynch DGB tomorrow if STD flips town. That would make her likely scum, but no more so then, say, Spyrex.

[Yosarian2]

Wrong on so many levels.

Even if you think my read on OGML may be wrong, it doesn't change the chart that much.

[Juls]

Do what you gotta do. It's just an opinion.

[DrippingGoofball]

ABR not voting STD is totally weird to me. For all we know, Patrick's got a list of people that have expressed interest in replacing, and it'll just take a couple of days for them to confirm they're still in. I don't envy Patrick's task, but if STD is the right lynch, then we should do it.

Sotty and VitaminR will come through and get this job done.

[chamber]

Poro, GC, and Bookitty are pretty clearly all town.

These are all some degree of a scum read of mine...

[Sotty7]

STD should claim in his next post.

[Yosarian2]

Poro, GC, and Bookitty are pretty clearly all town.

These are all some degree of a scum read of mine...

I can understand not being able to read Poro, especially if you haven't played with him as much as I have.

But how could Bookitty be scum here? What are the odds that both day 1 wagons were on scum, and that there was no real counterwagon at all?

And if you read day 1, do you really come away with the impression that GC could be scum with LML?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I also believe Bookitty is completely town.

[Yosarian2]

Really, chamber, I'm having a lot of trouble understanding your play this game at all. If you thought DGB was town today and wanted to defend her, great, but why didn't you defend her against one of the people actually voting for her? Why did you instead try to stop me from asking her questions to figure out her alignment?

Same thing with CES; if you thought he was town, great, maybe you're better able to read him then I am, but why not actually defend him directly, instead of that weird passive-aggressive stuff you were doing at the end of the day yesterday where you kept sort-of defending him but then vanished when questioned?

I just don't understand what most of your posts in recent days are even supposed to accomplish.

[chamber]

It's true that I haven't played with poro much.

Sometimes competing scum wagons happen. I'm not going to rule her out because of only that.

I will admit that I had a town read on GC during day1, its been slipping since yesterday, he's the weakest scum read of the 3.


preview edit: I don't have an agenda when I'm posting. Lots of my posts aren't trying to accomplish anything. But as I've said, I didn't have a strong town read on CES, and I certainly have no town read on DGB. My interest wasn't in defending them, that was a biproduct of dismantling the bad arguments being raised against them. Why didn't I defend her against people actually voting for her? Because their reasons were less bad.

[Yosarian2]

. But as I've said, I didn't have a strong town read on CES, and I certainly have no town read on DGB. My interest wasn't in defending them, that was a biproduct of dismantling the bad arguments being raised against them. Why didn't I defend her against people actually voting for her? Because their reasons were less bad.

But I wasn't raising an argument against her at all? All I was doing was trying to make sure my earlier town read on her before voting for STD (who I had also had a town read on earlier this game).

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, everyone has an agenda while posting, even if they're not always consciously aware what it is.

[VitaminR]

To be clear, there *are* scenerios that don't include either DGB or STD, they just seem very unlikely.

And, if there was any doubt, of *course* I'm not actually suggesting we auto-lynch DGB tomorrow if STD flips town. That would make her likely scum, but no more so then, say, Spyrex.

They seem very unlikely? Really? There are so many 'probably's in your Post 3281 that, if you actually put a figure on them your scenario is the one that ends up being very unlikely.

If you let yourself make a ton of assumptions, then maybe it looks like DGB or StD has to be scum. But the moment you're wrong about one of your four town reads (which seems likely, especially given that almost everyone in this game probably disagrees with at least one of those reads), for example, you'd only have three scum to find elsewhere and there are suddenly a ton of options.

[chamber]

Anyway, everyone has an agenda while posting, even if they're not always consciously aware what it is.

Not in the way you initially used the word. [secret] agenda.

Obviously all my posts have some surface level thing that they are accomplishing. (Typically communication of some kind).

[VitaminR]

FYI, I don't think that I ever said that I'll vote StD. I'd rather lynch one of our useless lurker slots than StD.

[VitaminR]

We all know Spy is scum right? I mean, it's pretty obvious. Are we just saving him for a rainy day?

I'm starting to think you're on to something with this. This slot has been perpetually absent and difficult to read.