Mini 1576 - Timeshift Mafia II - Endgame

[Bert]

Remind me why you read me as town for three game days?

Because your reasoning was extremely vague

Flip flop makes no sense.

[Bert]

"Stong WKin townread" to "big scumread"

Ure I was "not paying attention to Bert" excuse is ughhhhhh

I don't buy that

[Tammy]

Anatole why did you jailkeep me?

[Anatole Kuragin]

without an SK, you and studio are both conf-town, and I figured bulba would doc studio, didn't want to block bulba if he really was doctor, which I knew we would get an answer on today

[Anatole Kuragin]

bert, like I said, I didn't pay you much attention and you didn't seem like an obvious partner or obvious bus from either of the other two scum flips

[Anatole Kuragin]

but there's literally no other choice besides mara now

[Bert]

without an SK, you and studio are both conf-town, and I figured bulba would doc studio, didn't want to block bulba if he really was doctor, which I knew we would get an answer on today

The scum if ure town know u exist and Bulba-if-town exists, so killin Tammy is a big risk with two protective claims

If one protectve claim is scum, then it easy to roleblock the real town pr and claim results to fit actions

Unless u think Tammy is scum what's ure point for the action since u said she's conftown

[Bert]

but there's literally no other choice besides mara now

? That slot if town is still alive because it's been mostly a dead lurker slot before singer

Molla is an option and is not conftown

PV is an option

?

[Tammy]

without an SK, you and studio are both conf-town, and I figured bulba would doc studio, didn't want to block bulba if he really was doctor, which I knew we would get an answer on today

Why would you think he would change to doc studio when he literally said yesterday that he started protecting me when I became near confirmed because I was more valuable to have around?

Even if he's scum lying about that or

deluded about my capabilities

wrong, he wouldn't change back after that reason g

[Bert]

bert, like I said, I didn't pay you much attention and you didn't seem like an obvious partner or obvious bus from either of the other two scum flips

Why would you not pay attention to me but still call me strong town?

Backtracking is sooooo dubious lol

[singersigner]

Yeah but like...she apparently can't make a decision? I dunno, with what limited experience I have with her, I'd probably keep her alive as scum. And not worth protecting as town? No offense, but unless it was lylo, probably wouldn't bother.

LOL. I might be offended at your digs if you weren't so transparent.

I don't get it. Transparent? I just meant that I've been in your position before because I tend to be pretty useless as the game gets smaller (I'm probably giving myself too much credit since I'm not that useful to begin with ) and I'm under more pressure. I don't see you as a threatening player and having been a non-threatening player myself, I understand why even as confirmed town, scum would probably bank on you making the wrong decision (as I just did in Bert's lylo) than two other non-confirmed players working it out amungst themselves.

In any case, you bring up a good point, why would Bulb switch actions? Also, it wouldn't make sense to jailkeep a claimed protective role anyway because that puts one more person at risk. Especially knowing that no one is sold on the claims, it's very likely that scum would target someone outside of the PRs and bank on town lynching within them.


Also, also, all actions being claimed from last night will happen tonight, though, right?

[Tammy]

It's always interesting to hear other players perspective on your usefulness and what not.

Anyway, Anatole - did you believe that peregrine was a one-shot VIG?

[Tammy]

Oh yes, last nights actions will take place tonight.

[singersigner]

Argh, ok, I just meant they weren't meant to be digs. Someone was like "why isn't Tammy dead" and I was like "this is why confirmed town isn't as bad as you might think" like...I'm not very good either and I feel like your indecisiveness mirrors mine in that we're pretty easily persuaded.

But yeah, I feel like I just crapped on your ability to play mafia which I didn't mean to do...

In any case, I'm probably going to finish my ISOs tonight and maybe come up with some useful questions later?

[Tammy]

It's okay I actually meant that it was interesting to hear people's take on your usefulness. In Mafia Quickness, after I was killed night one and people were discussing things about it and why I was killed, Falcon mentioned something like any scum team would want to kill me because I'm persuasive and can drive through lynches if I want them and desperado responded with most of his experience was me being indecisive.

Some games things click for me and some games they don't. Some times during games I'm really indecisive until something clicks; sometimes it never does and sometimes scum just kill me before I have to actually decide. This game I felt pretty solid until yesterday, and now I need to regroup. The games where I can't decide anything the entire game sucks.

I AM totally and overly indecisive, and that's partly what gets me killed. Well I have a tendency to get killed for a variety of things, but I have an intense tendency towards paranoia and a feeling like I'm being manipulated, which a lot of times scum teams want me gone for because they can't count on me keeping reads I had yesterday or getting me to do what they want without me thinking they're manipulating me. Although sometimes I just die because trying to lynch me is a bitch. Sometimes I just die for diffusing tension in the town and trying to get people to work together. (yes, I know hard to believe from some of my games.)

Mostly I just have intense self-doubt and don't want to get it wrong and let town down. I also feel really bad for mislynching people.

Okay that was a ramble.

I still need to reread through several things. My certification course is over and summer semester is about to end, so I'll have more time to actually look at stuff soon.

[Bulbazak]

without an SK, you and studio are both conf-town, and I figured bulba would doc studio, didn't want to block bulba if he really was doctor, which I knew we would get an answer on today

Me thinks this points to Anatole not killing Studio and having his kill blocked by me.

[Bert]

bert, like I said, I didn't pay you much attention and you didn't seem like an obvious partner or obvious bus from either of the other two scum flips

i never see a reason other than "bert has looked town the past few pages" Day 1/2/3, to "bert has looked scummy the past couple of pages." it's like you're just trying to plant seeds of paranoia in people's minds.

Then, jailkeeping Tammy instead of narrowing down our scumsearch for us or potentially jailing the last scum. You didn't think Bulba was likelier scum than me or Mara, yet you jailed him. Then Tammy. You jailed the strongest townread, when you if town JK are most likely to die via scum. AFter all, Bulba protected Tammy and said he would do as such, AND he has you as a big scumread.


I literally just read your entire ISO and read for ANY type of reasoning on me other than PoE. And there has been no real stance from you aside from Pie. I asked you today again to elaborate on your read on me, and still no real explanation.

Spoiler:

I had Bert there because I was narrowing down Pie's town "reads" with knowledge we have. I don't see Bert as especially townie or scummy yet, just saying he would make sense as scum in the context of my above theory working backwards from Pie's list.

The ones I crossed out either would have received very strong bussing, had a night interaction that points to town, or has flipped.

Bulba, Mara, and Bert are my potential lynches, but I'd agree with you that Bulba and Mara are more likely than Bert.

This "suspicion" of me was based on Pie's town reads. Enough said!

I think logically speaking there is probably a mafia member between Marangal, Bert, Bulba then, because I have a strong town read on P5.

alright, I'll be honest, I don't even think I'm going to end up catching up in this game. this is what I get for falling too far behind. I'll try and skim starting from d2 and get my bearings back.

restating my reads from the last time I looked at the game thoroughly:

P5: town
Jeesh: town

Messiah: town

MsKaze: town
Bulba: town

Anatole: townish

Pie later tries desperately to get me lynched, poor guy

Kcda: townish

leaving MS (now

Targaryen

),

Pants

,

Bane

, and Molla as null or scummyish reads (notably Bane as my scummiest read, although tbh I forget why I thought he was scummy exactly.)

vote Bane

- placeholder til I get caught up

I would like to posit that the third mafia member is likely in that group of town/townish reads or null reads. Pie tries to get me killed, and tries for molla to a lesser degree.

If we're believing the vest story from Studio, which I do, we can eliminate jeesh from the list.

Pie's "reads" with strikethroughs for the ones that don't add up for being his partner or are already dead and color added for confirmed alignments:

P5: town

Jeesh: town

Messiah: town

MsKaze: town
Bulba: town

Anatole: townish

Kcda: townish

Molla:

null/scummish?

Bane:

null/scum?

That leaves us with Marangal, Bert, Bulba, and P5, whoever that is.

No real stance.

or we can lynch marangal who has checked out pretty much and denies coasting. lol.

I've gone back and forth between Mara and Bulba, but I think this is the right choice. I would quote the other posts I made at the beginning of the day as evidence, but I'm too lazy and this shit has been rehashed ad infinitum anyways.

VOTE: Ms Marangal

Back and forth between Mara and Bulba, without stating why.

You've played a timeshift game before?

I see honest frustration. A townie with shitty contribution is still a town, just ask Anatole Kuragin. It's still one corpse closer to a loss if we mislynch her.

does that apply to your strong townread on Peregrine?

Who is scum?

Bert, Bulba, or Mara. I have ten days to figure out which. I still have a townread on Pere if that's what you're asking.

Townie with shitty contribution = town? That's the only real reasoning I've seen in your posts aside from setup related speculation. Also never "figures out which" with any type of reasoning

Oh, I was asking Anatole.

Even worse if there is a sk - I'm pretty sure the last time shift game had one.

Well, if the kills start aligning with these suspicions, then yeah...

Given how SK is used frequently on this site, I could see one in this setup too with that scum flip. It comes down to X-shot Vig or SK for that kill unless there's another explanation.

P-edit: But I thought you see "honest frustration" in Mara's posts lately.

I do - I also see towniness in Bulba's posts. These just dissuade me from locking a vote in immediately - I'm not giving either of them a "townread."

No real stance on Mara. Still no explanation from earlier Mara vote. Also, Mara vote is hypocritical given how Anatole went "a shitty contributing townie = still town, just ask Anatole." Doesn't explain what towniness he sees in Bulba's posts

Town as fuck
Tammy
Bert

Town
BBmolla
Marangal

Literally forgot you were in the game again
PV

Lynch these
Anatole
Bulbazak

Why is bert town af?

Studio?

Asks to see how likely I am to be lynched, without having proclaimed real suspicion of me just yet.

Tammy, would you have pushed for a bert lynch today if not for his posts in the last hour or two?

Another asking about me, without saying why. Just gauging without voicing suspicion on me.

I could totally see bert being mafia, but I still think tammy is sk.

I mean, mafia at this point probably want sk dead more than we do

well, I think bert may be our most likely mafia, but unlikely to be sk

i think tammy is unlikely to be mafia but my best guess for sk

mathematically these are probably both bad choices

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I think we need bulba to show up

Says mathematically I am a bad choice, but doesn't explain why.

mafia could be bert, bulba, mara, or pere, imo. I want to say pere and mara are town though

VOTE: bert

tammy suitably convinced me I was an idiot for voting her

bulba may be lying

still thinking pere, mara, bb are town, and I'm almost certain studio is

bert or bulba should die today. confident at least one of them is scum, maybe both

Again, no stances. Just a whole wad of "it could be A, B, C or D."

why do you think mara is more likely to turn up scum than bert?

bulb you are tunnelvisioned right now and reaching

your first points about your merit as a doc have been addressed if you read the thread

Obviously someone is lying, and you have been less of a townread than any other player still alive aside from bert all game, and your claim was convenient so it makes sense it could be you. I also pointed out that it makes sense to have a doc. why can't it make sense and still be an opportunistic, potentially false claim?

I WANT to believe your claim is true, and accepted it pretty quickly. if tammy is town it makes you less likely to be, though

didn't realize bb had claimed when I did

and why would I look for your other site activity or even give a shit? I just wanted some more eyes on the game

it basically boils down to the fact that I feel bert is more likely to be scum, as I started getting more of a town vibe from you today, bulba.

also, I don't feel pressure bro

again, still no explanation why I'm most likely to be scum.

no, 1v1ing sounds like the dumbest and most selfish thing to do in a team game where every life counts

Even if both you and Bulba flips town, it would be 1 vs. 3 in 4p

Still not game over, assuming no SK.

I still am shocked we went "peregrine if you don't claim vig you're dying" and only that extracted the vig claim

Pretty unbelievable how today went. But yeah 13 of 14 days worth of productivity shattered with our SK theories

and if it's bulba, singer, pere, bert at that point, how confident is the town really?

VOTE: bert

thanks for reminding me

No elaborating. No reasoning still.

The jail is suspicious - makes perfect sense for scum to do that so that the lynch pool doesn't dwindle. Tammy is clearly not in anybody's lynch pool. On top of that, Bulba claimed to be protecting Tammy.

[Bert]

Today:

you were in my PoE list of three along with two people, one of which I felt was townie and the other I have gone back and forth non-stop. bert has been my only constant suspicion, but until the whole business with the tammy/sk stuff I didn't pay enough attention to you I guess

bert we've come along way from when I was accused of "buddying" you. never forget the good times

still no explanation about how my play is scummy as compared to Day 2/3 when you had me as town and were accused of buddying me.

coupled with your super confidence after Pie was lynched that Pie would flip scum (again, without real reasoning), this does not look good

[Tammy]

I jailkeepered tammy last night. I didn't read the thread at all, just saw it was day and wanted to mention I was v/la in case I couldn't get a real post in tonight.

if there isn't an sk, bulba isn't scum, regardless of how anti-town he is being. I jailkept him and studio still died.

bulba you are going to be seriously embarrassed at the end of this game

Sounds townish.

[Tammy]

Not the first post, which I had a whole dumb response to because readin is hard.

[Tammy]

Dammit I thought I remembered something about Anatole and can't find it. I'm passing out so I'll look later.

[Anatole Kuragin]

It's always interesting to hear other players perspective on your usefulness and what not.

Anyway, Anatole - did you believe that peregrine was a one-shot VIG?

yes, and still do

"Stong WKin townread" to "big scumread"

Ure I was "not paying attention to Bert" excuse is ughhhhhh

I don't buy that

what does WKin mean? did I really say you were a strong townread?

but there's literally no other choice besides mara now

? That slot if town is still alive because it's been mostly a dead lurker slot before singer

Molla is an option and is not conftown

PV is an option

?

I honestly forgot bb was still in this game, I guess it's a possibility. PV is basically as conftown as tammy after last night, why would you think otherwise?

Today:

you were in my PoE list of three along with two people, one of which I felt was townie and the other I have gone back and forth non-stop. bert has been my only constant suspicion, but until the whole business with the tammy/sk stuff I didn't pay enough attention to you I guess

bert we've come along way from when I was accused of "buddying" you. never forget the good times

still no explanation about how my play is scummy as compared to Day 2/3 when you had me as town and were accused of buddying me.

coupled with your super confidence after Pie was lynched that Pie would flip scum (again, without real reasoning), this does not look good

yeah, I've been back and forth more than I realized - I don't see how indecisiveness is an inherently scummy trait - if you really read through my posts it's not manufactured confusion, I just honestly found it hard to get strong reads aside from a few townies and one scum so far and it's still difficult. it's been a really confusing game and it's hard for me to believe as town I'm getting tunneled this hard by two people (bert and bulba) and one of them isn't scum. we know bulba isn't

[Bert]

yeah, I've been back and forth more than I realized - I don't see how indecisiveness is an inherently scummy trait -

if you really read through my posts it's not manufactured confusion, I just honestly found it hard to get strong reads aside from a few townies and one scum so far and it's still difficult.

it's been a really confusing game and it's hard for me to believe as town I'm getting tunneled this hard by two people (bert and bulba) and one of them isn't scum. we know bulba isn't

this still doesn't answer my question out of why I'm most likely scum out of everyone

[Anatole Kuragin]

yeah, I've been back and forth more than I realized - I don't see how indecisiveness is an inherently scummy trait -

if you really read through my posts it's not manufactured confusion, I just honestly found it hard to get strong reads aside from a few townies and one scum so far and it's still difficult.

it's been a really confusing game and it's hard for me to believe as town I'm getting tunneled this hard by two people (bert and bulba) and one of them isn't scum. we know bulba isn't

this still doesn't answer my question out of why I'm most likely scum out of everyone

I've had a a stronger townread on the two other potential players for days and they've done nothing to affect that.

[PeregrineV]

Targeted pie, molla, and bulba. Feel free to confirm/deny if you've had your shit blocked, bb and bulba.

Pie was kept n1 (n2 resolved-Messiah dead n2))

Molla was kept n2 (n3 resolved- Pie dead d3)

Bulba was kept n3 (n4 resolved)

Tammy was kept n4 (will resolve n5)

Kind of in a hurry because of work, but doesn't this clear Molla & Bulba, as in they could not have done the kills those nights?