NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Albert B. Rampage]

I have to choose a better way to express myself.

Let's try that again.

<stops playing mafia>

You're an idiot. You're literally too stupid to play. I wish that you didn't sign up for this game, you dolt. You're ruining this day and destroying my chances to win with the town.

<return to mafia>

You can unvote me now.

[Albert B. Rampage]

^ wrong thread. That post was meant for another player in an ongoing game. I know it looks like it fits nicely with my theme on MBL here, it's not meant for him.

[Porochaz]

Reading Day 3. As it's 80 pages it might take me a bit.

[Patrick]

Votecount

ChannelDelibird (1) -- SpyreX
Yosarian2 (2) -- Juls, VitaminR
Porochaz (3) -- chamber, Green Crayons, mathcam
VitaminR (2) -- Yosarian2, Albert B. Rampage
Albert B. Rampage (1) -- MrBuddyLee

Not voting: Porochaz, undo, Bookitty, ChannelDelibird, Sotty7
14 alive, 8 to lynch.

[VitaminR]

Back from my V/LA and catching up.

[Porochaz]

Looks like I added day 2 and 3 together.

[Juls]

I am in process of reading now and should get through at least day 1. Just an FYI. Will post something more tonight. While I am busy, I am trying to get through this game and post my thoughts. I have the benefit of knowing 2 scum flips as I reread which gives me unique perspective on the game. I really wish we could keep this day open for a little while. One of the masons will likely die in the night so I think it would be a good idea to get my feedback. I have already said this, I know but I think it bares repeating.

@ABR - I do have one question for you, if you can remember. You were adamant that PJ was scum toward the end of day 1 but really never elaborated as to why (at least so far). Can you either tell me what led to that read or tell me what post I can expect that reasoning in? Thanks!

[Albert B. Rampage]

I don't remember. I can just tell you that my views and his were diametrically opposed for the entire game, except for my case on VitaminR which he gave me some credit for. I didn't like what he had to say very much.

[MrBuddyLee]

You thought them perfect prior to that?

If I thought they were perfect I'd have proxied my vote to them. I did, however, have this idle hope that if I made a case, that at least one of 2-3 confirmed townies would sign on to it if it was a good case. I took their collective indifference to mean that I was overreaching on STD. Failed experiment.

At this point, to be honest, I'm not super enthusiastic about the prospect of trying to determine who's scum amongst the people who remain. Let's try this in its rawest form:

{Boo, Albert, chamber, cam, Spyrex} didn't help us lynch LML. {GC, Yos, VitR, Poro, KK} did, to various degrees.
{Poro, KK, VitR} didn't help us lynch STD. {chamber, Spyrex, Albert, cam, GC, Boo, Yos} did, to various degrees.

There's no easy pick there.. no overlap.

Let's try giving points based on how helpful/hindering they were. Note, if Boo is scum then like Whose My Line the points don't matter.

{Boo (-2), Albert(-1), chamber(-3), cam(-3), Spyrex(-1)} didn't help us lynch LML. {GC(+4), Yos(+3), VitR(+2), Poro(+1), KK(+1)} did, to various degrees.
{Poro(-3), KK(-4), VitR(-3)} didn't help us lynch STD. {chamber(+3), Spyrex(+5), Albert(+2), cam(+1), GC(+1), Boo(+1), Yos(+1)} did, to various degrees.

Net: KK -3, Poro -2, cam -2, VitR -1, Boo -1, chamber 0, Albert +1, Yos +4, Spyrex +4, GC +5

Another way to look at this is that based on the fact there's no overlap, all scum have definitely bused at least one partner. You'd expect more soft buses than hard buses, so the most likely soft buses would be Poro on LML, KK on LML, cam on STD, GC on STD, Boo on STD, Yos on STD.

The top suspect for a harder bus would be VitR on LML. I don't like that the timing of Yos's push on LML coincides with VitR's and STD's abandoning of that wagon right after the server outage, but as a standalone, Yos's push was strong and relevant. Almost too relevant.. I think nearly half of his D1 posts were about LML and 1/3 involved STD. My paranoia. >.>

If you think any of the assigned weights are off, please explain where and why. Note, this doesn't take into account people's aggressiveness pushing/defending wagons like Sotty, PJ, Glork that weren't necessarily/obviously wagons directly competing against scumwagons.

[VitaminR]

I'm inclined to think CDB not knowing that the masons claimed is a town tell, if it's not a deliberate play. I'd imagine scum replacing in would probably know this from a QT, even before re-reading.

chamber and VitR, who are your #2 suspects?

Yos, and probably SpyreX. My current thinking is that our scum is in {SpyreX, Yos/GC, Poro, ABR}. Both the SpyreX and Poro read are mostly based on PoE (though I think some valid points have been made about Poro today), but the fact that Poro was in StD's early list of "people we need to pressure" makes me think a SpyreX lynch is a better idea today.

As for the other reads, GC has looked town in some respects (wrt to LML and his general thoughtful manner) but scummy in others (e.g. push on DGB, DGB vote after StD claim, equivocation regarding my Day 1 interaction with LML). I can't see him as scum with Yos, though, given the way they acted as a bloc in voting LML Day 1. ABR I'm probably least sure about. He bought himself some town cred in the first three days because he was actually laying out cases and seemed to have genuine changes of heart. But almost all of his posts in the last two days seem kinda manipulative in a vaguely anti-town way and that is giving me pause.

After 2 deadline mislynches Day 2 and 3, I want to end this day as quickly as possible. There's nothing to discuss, from my perspective. It's clear where everyone stands and how one player relates to another. I just want to see some flips at this point.

You realize you're not helping matters by posting "it's either Poro or CDB" or making threats like Post 3649, right? That's not how you convince anyone. It just comes across as if you're trying to browbeat people into doing what you want, which just creates more resistance to it. If anything, you're slowing things down.

[Albert B. Rampage]

My vote is on you for a reason VitR.

[VitaminR]

I really don't care.

[VitaminR]

Back from V/LA. Will try to read and respond to everything; let me respond to Juls first.

Juls, from my point of view, what happened on day 1 was basically this:

-VitR started out with a vote on LML for a garbage reason

-I called him out for it as my first non-random vote (obviously not a very strong vote at the time, just a better then random one, with a little showmanship added to it to try to help me get a read on VitR)

-As the day went on, though, LML became increasingly scummy, while VitR seemed to just fade off the case, unvote him, and basically fade off into scummy nothingness

-I drove the LML wagon, with a little help from GC and from PJ but from basically no one else for most of the day. I lynched him almost singlehandedly, against the strong opposition of a number of vocal townies like DGB.

Now at the time, since I remembered attacking VitR for his attack on LML, I was thinking that they weren't scum together. But looking at it now, it really looks to me like it was probably an early-game distancing vote with no follow through at all.

This is just so obviously a rewrite of Day 1 according to your own biases. You lynched LML "singlehandedly", while I "voted LML for a garbage reason" and then "faded into nothingness"?

I remember you as a player who is capable of self-doubt and retrospection and this is just so obviously tailored to you fit your current opinions, I'm having trouble believing you would not be able to see that.

I was voting LML for the majority of Day 1. Sure, I was thrown off a bit by pj, but I pushed him extensively before that and he was never out of my sights.

[MrBuddyLee]

VitR, what makes you think SpyreX was hard-bus on STD?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Case on VitaminR:

1) He can't see that Yosarian is town
2) He isn't saying anything about MBL's ridiculous vote on me
3) See my case on Day 2 which is pretty much the only time PJ agreed with me
4) He insisted on parking his vote on Yosarian yesterday instead of contributing to lynching STD

[VitaminR]

You're basically asking me why I don't think the StD push makes him town? I never really found the ratio of certainty to content all that convincing (it was essentially based on StD's responses to two posts by Zorblag and DGB). If he's town, SpyreX processes the game very differently than I do (which is possible). I don't see how you derive a strong scum read from any of Spy's evidence. It was also started way before StD became a real lynch candidate, and doesn't strike me as all that risky a scumbuddy play at that point.

[MrBuddyLee]

How would you characterize that as different from your push on LML early D1?

[VitaminR]

Case on VitaminR:

1) He can't see that Yosarian is town
2) He isn't saying anything about MBL's ridiculous vote on me
3) See my case on Day 2 which is pretty much the only time PJ agreed with me
4) He insisted on parking his vote on Yosarian yesterday instead of contributing to lynching STD

You suspect me because I don't share your Yos read? I addressed this earlier today and you didn't reply or make any real attempt to help me see why you have such a strong Yos read.

I don't see why (2) is my job.

I really don't want to return to (3). (I also find it humorous that pj agreeing with you on it is suddenly a good thing.)

If you think (4) is a point against me, then you really have no insight into my playstyle at all. No way I would have made so many equivocal posts about StD if he was my scumbuddy.

[chamber]

{chamber(+3), Spyrex(+5), Albert(+2), cam(+1), GC(+1), Boo(+1), Yos(+1)}

Different perspectives can be interesting. Although SpyreX took a hardline on STD, I would have said that me and Albert both contributed more towards him actually getting lynched.

[VitaminR]

How would you characterize that as different from your push on LML early D1?

How are they similar? I think they're very different.

I voted LML because I thought he was being opportunistic in his voting, and then backtracked about it under pressure, and because his scumhunting was shallow on several occasions (ignoring the majority of the content his suspects posted). That describes

quite a lot

of his overall play. Even with that, I was never totally sure he was scum, because I know I'm often wrong. (His frustrations read sincere to me initially, for example, and made me think I misread his play.)

In contrast, SpyreX's case seemed to have been based on a relatively small part of StD's overall contributions (his response to DGB's scumputer and a response to a post of Zorblag's). He was always totally certain about StD being scum, though, even though he was not commenting on the majority of the content StD posted (LML did exactly the same thing, incidentally). Either that disconnect is there because he was bussing, or he needs a lot less than I do to be sure that someone is scum. In any case, I don't see how it clears him as a candidate for today's lynch.

[Yosarian2]

vote: Albert

At this point, I don't think there is a plausible 3-man scumgroup that could include Albert. I thought it was possible Albert was scum with CES, but after CES flipped town, I really can't see it.

[Yosarian2]

I mean, STD strongly buddied VitR a couple of times, what does that say about VitR?

Interesting. When was this? Post number?

[Yosarian2]

Yos, and probably SpyreX. My current thinking is that our scum is in {SpyreX, Yos/GC, Poro, ABR}.

This is the point of the game where scum have to start claiming to have an increasingly absurd list of suspects.

[Yosarian2]

This is just so obviously a rewrite of Day 1 according to your own biases. You lynched LML "singlehandedly", while I "voted LML for a garbage reason" and then "faded into nothingness"?

Yes, that's how I day 1 looks when I look at it now. You voted LML very early, almost right off the bat, for a reason that seemed off to me at the time. You never really followed up on it; you never asked LML further questions, you never attacked him for other posts he made, you explained your LML vote when asked but that's it. Then you left the LML wagon to vote for PJ.

For most of the rest of the day, you paid LML little attention, while I was really fighting to keep the wagon on him going (for a while, it was down to just 3 votes, just me, PJ, and GC). You briefly got back on the LML wagon, but then you went back to PJ. You did get on the LML wagon by the end of the day, but only just.

In my opinion, LML looked increasingly scummy as the day went on, but you mostly ignored him for the second half of the day (say, after we came back from the crash). It doesn't look like you put a lot of effort into trying to lynch him. Comparing your attacks on LML with, say, your attacks on me later in the game, your attacks on LML seem somewhere between "half-hearted" and "nonexistent".

I remember you as a player who is capable of self-doubt and retrospection and this is just so obviously tailored to you fit your current opinions

"Tailored to fit my current opinions"? Where the hell do you think I got my current opinions from? I've suspected you since day 3, and I've re-read your behavior on day 1 many times since then.

I was voting LML for the majority of Day 1. Sure, I was thrown off a bit by pj, but I pushed him extensively before that and he was never out of my sights.

Show me where you "pushed him extensively". The only thing you ever attacked him for was his mafiaSSK vote (which was, frankly, the least scummy thing LML did on day 1), and I think that was only because you were questioned about your vote there. The only other thing I can find that you attacked him for was the fact that he voted CES, and you quickly left the wagon after that.

[Porochaz]

I am up to page 90, there are a few things Im noticing, one, I am still finding it hard to drown DGB, two, there is still the weird DGB/ABR relationship, three, the masons need to contribute more, sotty because when she does, its usually useful and undo because well, what the hell has he done? 4, the yos and vitr discussion is slightly more interesting, its one in which yos's focus on the masons comes off badly for him, 5, MBL and GC are still obvtown