Mini 1576 - Timeshift Mafia II - Endgame

[BBmolla]

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[Bert]

do we have a winner?

omg i hope its me

im so stoked

[singersigner]

So molla...give me some insight. How do you feel about PV? How do you feel about everything? What makes me scum?

[Bert]

So molla...give me some insight. How do you feel about PV? How do you feel about everything? What makes me scum?

I think this will be my last post tonight because I'm being facetious and plus I had a draft written where I wrote Mina instead of Tammy.

[singersigner]

Um, ok. I mean if you want more ask me question give me direction. I have no desire to sift through 100 pages for a crap shoot but I would hope that there'd be more to work with than Tammy's claim post. Yeah at would you like from me, Bert? Apparently I'm only good for town-telling which I'm not even that good at so I'm trying my best here. I've given town reads and been very clear about the two people I would be willing to lynch, though PV less so now.

So. Yeah.

[BBmolla]

So molla...give me some insight. How do you feel about PV? How do you feel about everything? What makes me scum?

I think PV is a derp but I don't think his play makes much sense as serial killer with the wonky claim stuff. I think it's more likely he was "vig trying to stay quiet through massclaim" as dumb as that is.

Mara was my scummiest read of the remaining players.

But if there is one scum left, it's probably one of Anatole or Bulba. But I have townreads on both.

So fuck

[Bulbazak]

PV is basically as conftown as tammy after last night, why would you think otherwise?

Nope, nope, and nope. With the timeshift mechanic muddling things up, plus my role, there's no way we can easily write off the existance of a SK, and if it does exist, it HAS to be PV.

Since this makes absolutely no sense, please elaborate.

The Timeshift mechanic makes it so that the actions performed on one night are carried out on the next. Therefore, it is entirely possible that a lynch could disrupt night actions, or in this case kills. Let's say, for example, that the SK tried to kill Pie on n2, when that action would be peformed on n3, it would fail, as Pie was already dead. Now add onto that the existance of my role, doctor. This means that on top of Timeshift potentially hiding kill targets, I could also be blocking them. Therefore, I don't think there's enough information with 2 plausible methods of stopping kills to write off the existence of a SK. And if there is a SK in the setup, it has to be you via claim, as there's no way your claim makes sense in any regard (Problem #1: I find it hard to believe that a 1-shot vig would not claim his shot after having killed scum with it. Given that there were 2 additional conf. town revealed that day due to night actions, I can't see how you wouldn't claim the kill and make the group 3 strong, which is strong enough to threaten the remaining scum through PoE. Your actions do not match a town thought process. Problem #2: Let's say for the sake of argument that as town 1-shot vig you did the above. Why then would you not claim during massclaim? You claimed VT, which caused everyone to believe there was a SK, as no vig claimed. As a town 1-shot vig who has already used his slot and nailed scum, there should have been no deterrent to claiming. Instead, you led everyone to assume more scum than there were, which was an anti-town move. You only then claim 1-shot vig when severely pressured. Again, none of that comes from a town mindset.).

Targeted pie, molla, and bulba. Feel free to confirm/deny if you've had your shit blocked, bb and bulba.

Pie was kept n1 (n2 resolved-Messiah dead n2))

Molla was kept n2 (n3 resolved- Pie dead d3)

Bulba was kept n3 (n4 resolved)

Tammy was kept n4 (will resolve n5)

Kind of in a hurry because of work, but doesn't this clear Molla & Bulba, as in they could not have done the kills those nights?

1)

How does Pie dying d3 clear Molla?

2)

It's like you somehow know Pie was supposed to die n3, and are using that inside information to appear town and clear a player (who is more than likely town). 3) This is the same type of slip as Anatole saying I hadn't protected anyone, when there was only 1 kill n3, compared to n2's 2 kills.

1)

I didn't say Pie dying clears Molla. I was pointing out that Pie died day3, so he would not be able to kill n4, but Bert pointed out that Pie being alive night2 means he could have made the Pants nk (happened n3, submitted n2).

2)

Pie was lynched day 3.

3)

What slip? Anatole claims he jailkept you night 3, so the fact that Studio died clears you, unless he's lying about jailkeeping you. If that's the case, then why bother?

1.) You seemed to be implying very heavily that Pie dying cleared Molla. Even if you got confused via the Timeshift mechanic, the assumption that Molla was cleared would have to come from Pie somehow.
2.) And? There's no reason why Pie couldn't have been a kill target n2 (to resolve n3), which would then fail to go through after he was lynched. In fact, if he was a kill target, only 1 person would know it: you.
3.) When Anatole was trying to discredit me, he said that I hadn't protected anyone. However, at the time, we only had 2 nights worth of information. He was right about n2 (where I was protecting the Jeesh slot), but he had no way of knowing that n3, since we only had 1 kill, and there were several possibilities of how a second kill could have been blocked (keep in mind that at this point all evidence pointed to a SK, as you still hadn't

fake

claimed vig).

You and Bulba have tunneled me for what I see as pretty weak reasoning, a) you don't believe my claim, or b) I am indecisive.

Yes, because saying that there is no way there are 3 town protective roles and that your role was ripped straight from the first game is such weak reasoning.

bulba's tunnels ARE ridiculous.

The more you discredit me, the more I know I'm right on the money.

Actually, most of this post makes little to no sense. Start at the beginning and walk through it step by step.

I'm not seeing what doesn't make sense. We have 3 claimed protective PRs in a relatively power light game. Studio has been confirmed via death. That leaves just me and Anatole. There's no way town has that many protective roles, meaning one of them is fake. The fact that I can come to that conclusion, and Anatole cannot is a big red flag. My doctor claim is essentially a counter claim to her JK claim. As I've pointed out multiple times, me fake claiming doctor as single scum and 1v1ing a town JK would be suicidal as scum. You also should notice how Anatole is doing his best not to get in that situation, most likely trying to keep me for a NK or save me until Lylo when the risk is not as great. This also makes a lot of sense if his team's NK was actually blocked n3, thus tipping him off that there was another protective role in the setup. He made sure to claim before me, putting himself in a better position. And if you were scum needing a protective fake claim, where would you turn? If your answer was the previous version of Timeshift Mafia, where the protective role was JK (Anatole's claim), then you are right on the money. All throughout, Anatole has made it more of a point to discredit me and my case, calling it weak and ridiculous, because he knows I'm right, and that if others see it, it's game over.

As far as the first quote - there is evidence - he has been very very sure about two players this game. One is me, and the other is inflatable pie. I know with 100% certainty that he is wrong on both counts, and you know that he was on Pie. That's not a good record.

I've been very sure about a lot of players in this game. I had strong town reads on Mollie (later Studio), Bert when he replaced in, and then Tammy when she replaced in. I also had relatively strong scum reads on Mala and PV. My read on you was weak by comparison and was based on your posting record and lack of stances. As town, you should have been coming at me from 1 of 2 directions after the Pie lynch: 1.) scum due to my defending him so hard OR 2.) Maybe the Pie flip would have shaken my reads to the core, causing me to reevaluate them. You could then interact with me to try to see if that was the case. Instead of doing either of those 2, you decided to go on the offensive and preempted my first post of d4 by calling all my reads bad and that no one should listen to me. Again, you seemed to acknowledge me as town, even though you should have no reason to, hinting at inside information, and your thought process does that match that of town, since it's survivalistic and defensive in nature, rather than seeking to find scum and understand thought process and motivation.

Since this makes absolutely no sense, please elaborate.

Yes it does! You're not confirmed 1-shot vig! And if you're scum and not a 1-shot Vig/SK, then there's 99% an SK out there! That's really exciting!

You saying I could be scum has no meaning to me, since I'm not. But, walk me through the logic how I could be while shooting my partner.

But if you weren't the SK, then that means that you didn't shoot your partner. Why then did you immediately jump to that and ignore the attempted Bane/Tammy kill?

But if there is one scum left, it's probably one of Anatole or Bulba. But I have townreads on both.

There's more than enough information to solve this game via PoE, and PoE points to one of us. Just vote already.

[BBmolla]

It could also be PV though.

[Bulbazak]

PV is likely a SK. Let's lynch Mafia first.

[BBmolla]

If PV is SK I doubt there is mafia.

[Bulbazak]

Why? The mechanic pushes kills forward one night, so there's always a way they can disappear via lynches.

[PeregrineV]

@Bulba

- going to break down your big post later, but you are saying I'm the SK because there was and SK in Timeshift I, and Anatole is scum because there was a Jailkeeper in Timeshift 1 but there isn't one in this game. If you are going to try to argue setup #2 base don setup #1, you can't use it to argue opposite sides of the coin.

You are also trying to argue that somehow, through the miracle of doc and timeshifting but not jailkeeping, that 3 night kills just didn't happen.

[Bulbazak]

@Bulba

- going to break down your big post later, but you are saying I'm the SK because there was and SK in Timeshift I, and Anatole is scum because there was a Jailkeeper in Timeshift 1 but there isn't one in this game. If you are going to try to argue setup #2 base don setup #1, you can't use it to argue opposite sides of the coin.

You are also trying to argue that somehow, through the miracle of doc and timeshifting but not jailkeeping, that 3 night kills just didn't happen.

1.) I am not using the previous Timeshift to say anything about the SK. In fact, if you look through any of my past arguments, I don't mention the previous game once in connection with the possibility of a SK in this game. I'm saying that the sequence of events leading up to your claim and the thought process behind those events don't make sense coming from town. They do make sense coming from scum, in this case, a SK. And given only 3 nights of information, only 2 of which didn't have an immediate explanation for a lack of second kill (the first one did as it was blocked by Studio), I think it's far too early to write off the existence of a SK, especially when there are explanations that would account for the lack of kills.

2.) I am not saying that Anatole is scum because JK was in the first game. That's a strawman. What I'm saying is that there's no way there are 3 protective roles in this game, and seeing as how Studio was town and proven town d2, that leaves Anatole as scum. And the JK claim is an easy fake claim, simply because it existed in the first game, meaning she didn't have far to go to make up the role.

3.) Please explain to me how you think 3 protective roles exist in a power light game with a mechanic that can actually block kills, and yet, a SK can't exist because we haven't seen said kills? I really want to know how you think 3 protective roles can exist in a setup with a mechanic that can, by itself, block kills makes any kind of sense.

[singersigner]

Why? The mechanic pushes kills forward one night, so there's always a way they can disappear via lynches.

Why would they be able to disappear via lynches? I didn't think that would have any affect on the kill if the person performing the kill was still alive when they sent in the action. Isn't it just delayed?

[singersigner]

P.S. I like you last post A++

[Bulbazak]

Why? The mechanic pushes kills forward one night, so there's always a way they can disappear via lynches.

Why would they be able to disappear via lynches? I didn't think that would have any affect on the kill if the person performing the kill was still alive when they sent in the action. Isn't it just delayed?

Let's say that on n1 scum kill X. On d2, X is lynched. When n2 rolls around, the kill is unable to be resolved, since its target is already dead. Therefore, at the dawn of d3, it looks like no kill occured.

[singersigner]

Oooooh. I think I misread that. I thought you meant the person performing the kill, not the person at risk of being night killed. That makes more sense.

[Bert]

Singer could be scum based on Mara, but I feel bad about Quickness and for sentimental reasons I keep wanting to stray away from that.

Yeah, I just said that.

Man, can we just pick one of Anatole or PV and go with it? This game needs some infusion of new info. 28 days is something something. Something yeah.

I think we should just take Tammy's dinner away.

Some players have this "I can't survive out here anymore. Please let me into the Dead QT" frustration that's really clear. That would fit with a self-vote. Anatole's self-vote did not seem ANYTHING like that.

[Tammy]

mod - I'm v/las until August 12th

I'm going home to visit family. I will still have access, but.

I need to catch up with today's posts and finish what I was starting yesterday. I'm in the middle of packing and grading, so I might post in bursts tonight in the midst of that.

[BBmolla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: PV

[PeregrineV]

The Timeshift mechanic makes it so that the actions performed on one night are carried out on the next. Therefore, it is entirely possible that a lynch could disrupt night actions, or in this case kills. Let's say, for example, that the SK tried to kill Pie on n2, when that action would be peformed on n3, it would fail, as Pie was already dead. Now add onto that the existance of my role, doctor. This means that on top of Timeshift potentially hiding kill targets, I could also be blocking them. Therefore, I don't think there's enough information with 2 plausible methods of stopping kills to write off the existence of a SK. And if there is a SK in the setup, it has to be you via claim, as there's no way your claim makes sense in any regard (Problem #1: I find it hard to believe that a 1-shot vig would not claim his shot after having killed scum with it. Given that there were 2 additional conf. town revealed that day due to night actions, I can't see how you wouldn't claim the kill and make the group 3 strong, which is strong enough to threaten the remaining scum through PoE. Your actions do not match a town thought process.

Actually, they do, since I had those thoughts and I'm town.
I usually keep my claims unless they provide more information to the town, or potentially can.
I consider myself town, Tammy town, and Anatole town (and nominally, you, through his claim, that's why we are having this conversation), so 4 is good enough for me. Before you, Studio was confirmed.

Problem #2: Let's say for the sake of argument that as town 1-shot vig you did the above. Why then would you not claim during massclaim? You claimed VT, which caused everyone to believe there was a SK, as no vig claimed. As a town 1-shot vig who has already used his slot and nailed scum, there should have been no deterrent to claiming. Instead, you led everyone to assume more scum than there were, which was an anti-town move. You only then claim 1-shot vig when severely pressured. Again, none of that comes from a town mindset.).

I think it became obvious that I shot Messiah, so leaving some doubt in scum's mind works for the best.
It was obvious there is no SK because no 3 kills night 1, only 1 kill since then.
Yes, you claimed to have super-docced them all away or any other given reason why they didn't happen. But, I'll stick to Occam's razor, simplest explanation is the most likely.
And despite this simple explanation, my lack of claim AND my eventual claim, there is still SK hunting going on. So, making the assumption that my actions in any way affected town's behavoir in that regard that is some sort of logical fallacy, and using it to argue just makes you look bad.

[PeregrineV]

1.) You seemed to be implying very heavily that Pie dying cleared Molla. Even if you got confused via the Timeshift mechanic, the assumption that Molla was cleared would have to come from Pie somehow.

No, I implied that nowhere. I pointed out that Pie was dead and so could not kill. Even if he could, chances are he would be roleblocking since that was his role.

2.) And? There's no reason why Pie couldn't have been a kill target n2 (to resolve n3), which would then fail to go through after he was lynched. In fact, if he was a kill target, only 1 person would know it: you.

Here you are saying Prove a negative. You want me to prove I didn't know that Pie would die n2 or 3 or whatever. You can't really prove a negative, but 1518. If you want to say I'm mafia, then I bussed my buddy after shooting him also. If you want to say I'm SK then I gave up a perfectly good town-Anatole lynch to vote someone you claimed I already shot.
But, keep piling on bad logic, Bulba.

3.) When Anatole was trying to discredit me, he said that I hadn't protected anyone. However, at the time, we only had 2 nights worth of information. He was right about n2 (where I was protecting the Jeesh slot), but he had no way of knowing that n3, since we only had 1 kill, and there were several possibilities of how a second kill could have been blocked (keep in mind that at this point all evidence pointed to a SK, as you still hadn't fake claimed vig).

I don't even get what you are saying here, but my point is that if Anatole is scum, why bother claiming he jailkept you knowing Studio would die and that would clear you from making the Studio kill? If scum Anatole wanted to get rid of you, then he doesn't clear you, he "jailkeeps" Tammy and then blames you for the Studio kill.

[PeregrineV]

But if you weren't the SK, then that means that you didn't shoot your partner. Why then did you immediately jump to that and ignore the attempted Bane/Tammy kill?

You lost me here too. Tammy was protected by the BP vest given by Jeesh/Studio. Messiah was not protected from my kill.

[singersigner]

The reason we're still "SK hunting" is because of all of that. We're saying that all of that adds up to us trying to decide if YOU are the SK because you've planted a seed of doubt that you don't necessarily have what's in the town's best interest at heart by allowing them to work with as much information as they could have had.

So yes, your actions very much affected the way we're continuing to look at it. Not admitting that it was a very selfish play as town just makes YOU look bad.

[PeregrineV]

@Bulba

- going to break down your big post later, but you are saying I'm the SK because there was and SK in Timeshift I, and Anatole is scum because there was a Jailkeeper in Timeshift 1 but there isn't one in this game. If you are going to try to argue setup #2 base don setup #1, you can't use it to argue opposite sides of the coin.

You are also trying to argue that somehow, through the miracle of doc and timeshifting but not jailkeeping, that 3 night kills just didn't happen.

1.) I am not using the previous Timeshift to say anything about the SK. In fact, if you look through any of my past arguments, I don't mention the previous game once in connection with the possibility of a SK in this game. I'm saying that the sequence of events leading up to your claim and the thought process behind those events don't make sense coming from town. They do make sense coming from scum, in this case, a SK. And given only 3 nights of information, only 2 of which didn't have an immediate explanation for a lack of second kill (the first one did as it was blocked by Studio), I think it's far too early to write off the existence of a SK, especially when there are explanations that would account for the lack of kills.

2.) I am not saying that Anatole is scum because JK was in the first game. That's a strawman. What I'm saying is that there's no way there are 3 protective roles in this game, and seeing as how Studio was town and proven town d2, that leaves Anatole as scum. And the JK claim is an easy fake claim, simply because it existed in the first game, meaning she didn't have far to go to make up the role.

3.) Please explain to me how you think 3 protective roles exist in a power light game with a mechanic that can actually block kills, and yet, a SK can't exist because we haven't seen said kills? I really want to know how you think 3 protective roles can exist in a setup with a mechanic that can, by itself, block kills makes any kind of sense.

1) see above post

2) see above post

3) No clue/don't care. I'd argue normal and balancing setups for a normal game, but with this mechanic, it seems like more trouble than it's worth. I think there is 1 scum left, you think something else. You go for it, but any effort to convince me I'm something other than my role PM won't work.