Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Bins]

Splash, what do you think about all this? Who do you think is WW?

[Wickedestjr]

Paschendale, you said you would be "very surprised" if Bulge was not werewolf. 1. Why do you think he is scum? 2. Why do you think he is werewolf as opposed to mafia?

[Wickedestjr]

BTW, I would like to point out that this game just ended. That is the first and only game that I can find onsite where Shaded was mafia.

TL;DR
-He completely ignored partner A for the most part, expressed his support for a case against said partner, but never voted them.
-He completely ignored partner B until he thought partner B was confirmed scum. At which point he bussed heavily.

[Paschendale]

It actually might be harder for the mafia to win with the werewolves since it has been mention, they need to have almost all the mafia killed off to win.

If the werewolves all die, then scum have to win entirely on mislynches. That's very very very hard. Not likely to lead to a win. Scum vs town with no night kills will almost always lead to a town win. That's why scum with night kills is standard. Killing off the werewolves as fast as possible is good for town and bad for everyone else.

That read is kind of odd, Pasch. Unsight looks way more WW than mafia.

You should explain this conclusion.

Paschendale, you said you would be "very surprised" if Bulge was not werewolf. 1. Why do you think he is scum? 2. Why do you think he is werewolf as opposed to mafia?

I discussed my scumread on him on day 1, and then considered abandoning them based on our day 1 lynch. They hopped on the wagon to kill a mafia but didn't look like they were bussing. I had forgotten about the WW faction, so it is reasonable that they could be part of that faction. They read, independently of each other, strongly, as not town. So, not town, probably not mafia... probably WW's! I would be very surprised if I were wrong about this conclusion. It seems sound to me.

[Paschendale]

Fucked up quote tags. See this post for fixed ones.

It actually might be harder for the mafia to win with the werewolves since it has been mention, they need to have almost all the mafia killed off to win.

If the werewolves all die, then scum have to win entirely on mislynches. That's very very very hard. Not likely to lead to a win. Scum vs town with no night kills will almost always lead to a town win. That's why scum with night kills is standard. Killing off the werewolves as fast as possible is good for town and bad for everyone else.

That read is kind of odd, Pasch. Unsight looks way more WW than mafia.

You should explain this conclusion.

Paschendale, you said you would be "very surprised" if Bulge was not werewolf. 1. Why do you think he is scum? 2. Why do you think he is werewolf as opposed to mafia?

I discussed my scumread on him and Bins on day 1, and then considered abandoning them based on our day 1 lynch. They hopped on the wagon to kill a mafia but didn't look like they were bussing. I had forgotten about the WW faction, so it is reasonable that they could be part of that faction. They read, independently of each other, strongly, as not town. So, not town, probably not mafia... probably WW's! I would be very surprised if I were wrong about this conclusion. It seems sound to me. I am as certain as a person can be that at least one of Bulge and Bins is a werewolf.

[fuzzybutternut]

Again with the voting Mafia reads over WW reads.

Sns replacement came in and basically gave reads that everyone else had already given. Not sure how I feel about him right now.

Not sure how I feel about the bulge wagon either...tempted to vote him, but I want a VC first.

[Riddleton]

I think this is the current votecount:-

The Bulge (4) - Not_Mafia, Riddleton, Paschendale, Unsight

L-2

Unsight (1) - fuzzybutternut
Desperado (1) - TheBulge

[Paschendale]

Again with the voting Mafia reads over WW reads.

Who are you talking about here?

[Riddleton]

I think he was refering to me before I switched my vote to TheBulge.

[Riddleton]

The only reason I did that was because I wasn't entirely confident TheBulge was WW and preferred Fuzzy as a lynch as I knew at least he was scum if not WW. I would say I am certain he would flip WW now.

[Wickedestjr]

Ok right now I'm thinking the four scum are in {Desperado, fuzzybutternut, Not_Mafia, Splashcloud, Unsight}. That's a result of POE. There are thirty ww/maf team combos that can be formed from those five and I'm trying to narrow it down further.

[Riddleton]

Wicked

, can you explain you do not see either of TheBulge or Pasch as scum?

[Riddleton]

^ and which of your reads do you think are WWs?

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked

, can you explain you do not see either of TheBulge or Pasch as scum?

Bulge is a gut town read. Plus, I don't feel comfortable with either bandwagon that formed on him. Paschendale is a town read because of gut and a recent meta check.

and which of your reads do you think are WWs?

I'm working on it.

[fuzzybutternut]

I think he was refering to me before I switched my vote to TheBulge.

Dingdingding.

[Wickedestjr]

Narrowed it down to a few options. Still working on it.

Desperado

, what do you think about Splash?

[Wickedestjr]

I'm going to say Unsight + Desperado for wolves and fuzzy + Not_Mafia for mafia. And I'm going to

Vote: Unsight

.

Below are my reasons for thinking Unsight is a werewolf.

1. Unsight voted for fuzzy because it seemed like fuzzy was suspiciously hesitant to vote Shaded. Later he says that Bulge looks like a werewolf, but initially keeps his vote on fuzzy. Seems like he's more interested in hunting mafia than werewolves even though werewolves pose the greater threat. He later switches his vote to Bulge, but, IIRC, he never explained his initial preference for a fuzzy lynch.

2. Unsight's Bulge vote is probably the worst vote on that bandwagon. He said, "Bulge looks really good as a werewolf" and is confident enough in that stance that he proceeds to figure out who the 'other werewolf' is by looking at Bulge's bandwagon. However, the problem with this overly confident stance is that his reasoning doesn't merit the confidence;

The thing that doesn't sit well with me is Post 319. When he was nearing lynch, he said he could guarantee he was town. snscompt1 immediately took his vote elsewhere. snscompt1 could have been jumping off his buddy's wagon or he may have read that post the same way I just did--soft Town Seer claim. The problem with this? The Bulge is still alive. Night kill analysis is WIFOM and usually not worth the time it takes to type, but I think the wolves would have to be asleep at the wheel to not take that bait. Unless he's one of them.

Firstly, only a werewolf would want to out the Seer. Secondly, Unsight is making too many assumptions here (that Bulge crumbed seer AND that scum would have noticed AND that scum would have nightkilled him if they thought he was seer) - the combination of weak assumptions here doesn't match the confidence that Unsight has in his belief that Bulge is a werewolf. Thirdly, Unsight completely ignores the rest of Bulge's play up until now despite calling him scum. This is the kind of accusation that says "I'm not a werewolf because I'm speculating about their nightkill, also lets all vote the potential seer!" and it's bothersome that he and Desperado are two of the major forces behind it.

3. Unsight's comments regarding his predecessor seem disingenuous.

PS: bjc was town as fuck and his reads were super good. He had ShadedMelee, Bulge, Pasch picked out super fast. If all 3 flip scum then the town owes him a ton for the upcoming win.

First he says "bjc was town as f***", which is an odd thing for him to say when bjc's play consisted of one-liners and unjustified reads - a playstyle that is easily fake-able by bjc as scum. Anyone can post one-liners and provide reads without reasons as scum. He says bjc's reads were super good even though only one of the three has flipped scum. And then there's that last comment - let's wait until after the game for the hypothetical praise.

4. Unsight is guilty of IIoA = Information Instead of Analysis, one of my favorite scum tells. I have quotes;

As a final bit of trivia to consider, the only two people to never vote The Bulge ( other than himself ) were Wickedestjr and Not_Mafia.

Wickedestjr - Never voted Bulge. Ever.

Twice Unsight draws attention to the players not voting Bulge. However, neither time does Unsight actually analyze it. E.g. he never says that I could be Bulge's partner for not voting him, even though that's the subtle implication. 'Trivia' is pointless when you don't make use of it.

5. I have issue with this post;

3. Werewolves win when they comprise half the town and at least one pro-town player remains. If werewolves comprise one half and mafia comprise the other half, then mafia wins. That makes mafia more threatening to the werewolves, because they currently CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill a mafia goon. If werewolves lose a member then they CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill both mafia goons.

This is the greatest thing ever.

I feel like I just had an epiphany.

The Werewolves are gonna kill the mafia for us. All we need to do as a town is say "We're not lynching Pasch/Fuzzy." The instant we say that, the Werewolves cannot win this game without wasting two night kills on them.

He made four posts before finally commenting on this, so it's weird that this reaction was so delayed. But my main issue is that it's ~40 words that say "I'm town, so glad that scum will kill each other".


I think Bulge is town, haven't seen a single good reason for voting him. But here's a good Unsight case, so lets lynch him instead.

[Riddleton]

Hm, you've convinced me with your unsight case. Let me read over his posts/ISO again before I revote, though.

[Bins]

I'm in awe.

[Wickedestjr]

Why?

[Wickedestjr]

Already explained why fuzzy is mafia. Just explained why Unsight is mafia.

I think Not_Mafia is mafia because he likes to bus as scum and his support of the Shaded lynch looks like another bus. Desperado is a POE scum read: I can't envision an Unsight/Splash werewolf team and felt good about Maruchan from a recent reread.

[Unsight]

I'm in awe.

Don't be. It's a pretty weak post filled with "Unsight is confident in her reads ergo scum" and "Unsight provides information ergo scum." Lots of null tells painted as scum tells and far too many words saying far too little.

[Not_Mafia]

I'll let Unsight respond but that case isn't as impressive as it seems to look to others and is largely window dressing, and Wicked's personal opinion of the "fake crumb" is largely meaningless when it's obvious a significant enough portion of the town are going to get hung up on it and why more people don't seem to be aware of why us extending out a lynch centered on someone crumbing our only PR is bad is beyond me.

If Bulge flips town it removes any future wifom of that crumb and hopefully redirects wolves kill to Fuzzy, but that possibility is dwindling more and more the longer this goes on and more of us figure out who the seer is. This lynch should have gone through 2-3 pages ago.

[Not_Mafia]

I think Not_Mafia is mafia because he likes to bus as scum and his support of the Shaded lynch looks like another bus.

Why does that look like a bus to you?

[Riddleton]

However, neither time does Unsight actually analyze it. E.g. he never says that I could be Bulge's partner for not voting him, even though that's the subtle implication. 'Trivia' is pointless when you don't make use of it.

But it's fairly obvious Unsight meant that.


Well I think some of your points are valid Wicked (point #2) but others aren't.