Mini 1601: B_E's Mind Mafia ABANDIFIED

[T S O]

Tomorrow I'll be doing analysis on dybeck's wagon. yay d1 scumlynches!

[Burning_Earth]

"Ok we have decided", someone said. "Let's throw dybeck into a pit right now!"

"WAIT! IT ISN'T OFFICIAL UNTIL GOD SAYS IT IS", someone else said. So they all waited. And waited. And waited. And then God turned up. "Oops sorry guys I'm busy recently", he said. "It seems dybeck was lynched. Well I am happy to tell you that he was a

mafia goon

also here is the VC

Official Vote Count

dybeck

(7): Aegor, T S O, beastcharizard, Elias_the_thief, Riddleton, Aneninen, hephaestus

Aegor

(2): dybeck, Feirei

Aneninen

(2): OkaPoka, Ythill

Not Voting

(2): Shinobi, Fat_Tony

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

It is now night you have (expired on 2014-08-30 03:56:19)"

"Hey wait God if you are omniscient and good why don't you just tell us all the gremlins?"

"Because I'm not God I'm just a random fifteen year old who likes messing with all your heads bye"

EDIT: The vote counter really hates every vote Ythill makes. But he was on Anen at day's end. Heph was the hammer. Sorry guys and thanks to the person who pointed it out

[Burning_Earth]

Really important announcement: From now on you must use vote tags or put votes on their own line so the vote counter picks up your votes. Also, when voting "beast" the vote counter thinks you are voting hephaestus so don't so that either. And also use aneninen's full name, not just Anen. Thanks.

[Burning_Earth]

"Whoa it looks like Aegor is dead!"
"Whoa ur right"
"Maybe he died of shock given our whole religion was just disproven"
"Yeah but I have CCTV footage of him being hit 37 times on the head with a cricket bat"
"Oh maybe that then. Was he an EVIL GREMLIN?"
"Hi, I'm that random 15 year old again. He was NOT an evil gremlin.

AEGOR IS DEAD HE WAS A Vanilla Townie

"Whoa it looks like riddleton has 1843 bullet holes in his head"
"Yeah I can tell you that

RIDDLETON IS DEAD HE WAS A TOWN JAILKEEPER

. IT IS DAY 2 WHEN I UNLOCK THE THREAD.

(expired on 2014-09-13 04:01:37) until deadline

[Shinobi]

Unexpected internet access. We should lynch Aneninen today. My point stands that dybeck's scum wall was aimed at easing the pressure off of that slot. I can explain in detail later on if need be. Just let me get hold of a computer beforehand.

VOTE: Aneninen

[T S O]

I'm going to go back and look at who was backing dybeck/backed his claim, because I felt there was definitely scum interfering with his lynch yesterday.

[beastcharizard]

VOTE: Aneninen

I called that scum first guys. I am pro scum hunter so you should all just sheep my reads for the rest of the game.

[beastcharizard]

At this point, I am pretty sure Feirei is scum regardless of what dybeck flips. The slot was previously occupied by Kid A, which only makes me more confident.

This is what Aegor was pushing at the end of the day yesterday.

[Ythill]

I started VCA with dybeck/riddle flips overnight. Need to edit for the Aegor flip and perform analysis. Will post it this morning.

At this point, I seriously doubt Anen is scum. Read post post 397, specifically dybeck's slip, "A vanilla townie claim doesn't help his case much - but when you're a townie, you're a townie." Also, note that dybeck was vote-parked on the slot for most of the day, even when alternatives were offered, until the wagon dissolved. Which brings me to another point...

There were so many VC errors on D1 that we may want to abandon this game.

For example, the Anen slot was technically lynched in post #292 though I doubt Elias would have dropped the hammer if he had known. I'm fine playing this out but I'd also understand if people wanted to call it a forfeit.

VOTE: Feirei

[T S O]

I don't really agree with #733, Ythill.

[Ythill]

What do you mean?

[T S O]

My view of the dybeck post is that it actually damns Csareo more than anyone else.

[T S O]

Dybeck doesn't strike me as a particularly crafty scum player. The whole paragraph on Csareo is waffle with no real conclusion at the end. I don't agree with the statement "when you're a townie, you're a townie" for example.

[T S O]

I don't think dybeck would make a catch-up post which did not address any of his buddies either.

[Ythill]

Fair enough.

I'm working on VCA now, will get to the other meat (like a scum iso) today or at least by Monday. For now, my vote is marking the slot I find scummiest based on pseudo-gut (a skim of dybeck and incomplete analysis). We'll see if it holds up as I go through the info we have.

[Aneninen]

Unexpected internet access. We should lynch Aneninen today. My point stands that dybeck's scum wall was aimed at easing the pressure off of that slot. I can explain in detail later on if need be. Just let me get hold of a computer beforehand.

Vote: Aneninen

I'm waiting for your explanation because I don't see your point. (I only know that you're voting for the wrong person – though, I would say the same if I were scum.)

Though I think my late-Day1 posts made it clear, I recapitulate it: I was hesitant vote for Dybeck because I had had stronger scumreads but the counterclaim convinced me.

vote: Aneninen

I called that scum first guys. I am pro scum hunter so you should all just sheep my reads for the rest of the game.

That was gross, Beast. The strongest case ever, I suppose. ^_^

At this point, I am pretty sure Feirei is scum regardless of what dybeck flips. The slot was previously occupied by Kid A, which only makes me more confident.

This is what Aegor was pushing at the end of the day yesterday.

...and how exactly does this explain your vote?

At this point, I seriously doubt Anen is scum. Read post post 397, specifically dybeck's slip, "A vanilla townie claim doesn't help his case much - but when you're a townie, you're a townie." Also, note that dybeck was vote-parked on the slot for most of the day, even when alternatives were offered, until the wagon dissolved. Which brings me to another point...

...what happened? Are you stilly Ythill? Or did the fairies abducted you last night and I'm talking to a changeling right now? ^_^

Also,
My strongest scumread is Feirei, explained in 680 (and I've mentioned this topic many times). My other scumread is Beast (also mentioned in many posts of mine, plus his Day2 start – see above!)

The Aegor-kill seems to be a Vig-kill for me. I think the Vig should claim it so that we can know the basics of the setup. (Do we have a 10:3 with a Vig, or a 9:3:1/9:2:2? That is very important!)

BUT

,

the Anen slot was technically lynched in post #292 though I doubt Elias would have dropped the hammer if he had known.

Really? I haven't noticed it.
MOD, this is a serious thing which needs to be investigated.

Consider this:

I know that I'm town. But, I would say the same thing if I were scum.
Imagine a situation where I reach LyLo and after a mislynch I flip scum... I think all of the townies would be annoyed and say

"f-ck this shit, he was lynched on Day1! If the VC had been correct we would have won!"

By the way, the situation is just as bad with a town-Aneninen. In this case, I get to LyLo, we find the last scum(s) and the scums can say

"f-ck this shit, he was lynched on Day1 so Dybeck should have survived..."

If the case pointed out by Ythill is true a decision is to be made.
Fair play is more important than winning for me. Bring along any kind of resolution you wish, I accept it.
Until that I'm not posting.

[T S O]

I promise you, I would personally have strongmanned a dybeck lynch through tomorrow anyway.

[T S O]

In response, Riddleton might still be alive today, and scum might have been Jailed. I don't think scum can point to an event and directly predict what would happen after.

I would also be a little disappointed if scum asked to re-roll. I wouldn't be vitriolic, and I'd play again, but idk. I've won in games where my partner has died d1. If you're good enough you can do it.

[T S O]

(to clarify: I don't plan to be lenient whatsoever and I'd like nothing more than a perfect win. I feel scum should play on, but I have no intention of giving less than 100% to catch them).

[OkaPoka]

VOTE: anen

lets get scum lynched

[Fat_Tony]

Looks like we have a vig, an SK, or it's multiball. Should the vig claim if that's where we are?

[OkaPoka]

VOTE: Aneninen

oops messed it up

[Ythill]

...what happened? Are you stilly Ythill? Or did the fairies abducted you last night and I'm talking to a changeling right now? ^_^

Like I said yesterday, I think behavioral tells are far less reliable than other methods of scumhunting. Especially early ones. When I tabulate my reads today, I intend to assign a small number of points to reflect my D1 behavioral reads but I always try to keep an open mind while performing sunrise analysis. Further, slips from concerned scum are often accurate indicators because they are painfully aware of everyone's alignment, and dybeck

did

suggest that you were town.

That said, my pseudo-gut may have been wrong. I haven't done the math but your slot has been getting more scumpoints in the VCA than it seemed at a glance.

[Ythill]

Here is the D1 VCA with corrections for errors and voting order. I added an unofficial VC at the point of dybeck's claim. Red refers to dead scum and green to known town. As usual, if you are uncomfortable with my own name being listed in green, you can do your own VCA or edit/repost this one.

#44

Csareo (3):

Riddleton

, hephaestus, Kid A
hephaestus (3):

Ythill

, Darkcrimson, NicCage

Aegor

(1): Csareo
NicCage (2): Albert B. Rampage,

Aegor

T S O (1): PMysterious
Kid A (1):

Dybeck

Not Voting (3): VisceraEyes, T S O

Not much to be gleaned here. Scum don't like to start early wagons, as demonstrated by the top two. Expect to find them on one of those, in RVS, or not voting at all. Inexperienced scum random votes a buddy? Too WIFOMy to result in Feirei scumpoints.

#144

Csareo (5):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus, Kid A,

dybeck

,

Ythill

NicCage (2): Albert B. Rampage,

Aegor

Hephaestus (2): Darkcrimson, NicCage
T S O (1): PMysterious
Not voting (3): Csareo, VisceraEyes, T S O

This game state was static for two VCs. Still early, but the Anen (Csareo) wagon had scum and a lot of steam. If there is more than one scum on board, expect them to jump off soon because of not wanting to quick bus a buddy or be sullied en masse in a quick mislynch. Csareo pulling his vote could be construed as scummy, but town might have done that due to pressure.

#191

Csareo (4):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus,

dybeck

,

Aegor

Hephaestus (2): Darkcrimson, NicCage
T S O (1): PMysterious
Aegor (1): Albert B. Rampage

Riddleton

(3): Kid A, Csareo,

Ythill

Not voting (2) Elias_The_Thief, T S O

Look who followed expected scum behavior: scumpoints for Feirei (Kid). If Fei flips scum, this count will reveal a lot more information. For example, Kid and Anen are not likely buddies, and Kid scum mildly suggests heph scum. Not counting these hypotheticals into my suspicions, just stating them for use later in case I die.

Beast and Elias gave a 2 vote option on me between these VCs, but it went nowhere. This suggests that one of them is scum, and/or Anen is town.

#255

Csareo (5):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus,

dybeck

, TSO, beastcharizard
Kid A (1):

Aegor

Hephaestus (1): NicCage

Aegor

(1): Albert B. Rampage

Riddleton

(3): Kid A, Csareo,

Ythill

Not voting (2): PMysterious, Elias_the_Thief

The Riddle wagon went nowhere across more than 60 posts, which suggests that Anen is town. A count of potential Csareo votes shows that a quicklynch was possible; scumpoints for TSO and beast for making it possible at this juncture. Moreso beast, because he voted later.

#284

Csareo (6):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus ,

dybeck

, TSO, beastcharizard,

Ythill

Kid A (2):

Aegor

, Elias_the_thief
Hephaestus (1): NicCage,

Aegor

(1): Albert B. Rampage

Riddleton

(2): Kid A, Csareo
Not Voting (1): PMysterious

Csareo reaches L-1 though it was mistaken for L-2 at the time. This was followed by an Elias vote which he thought was L-1. Isn’t it early for a claim? He even took a stance about claim avoidance being protown later.

#369

Csareo (4):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus,

dybeck

,

Ythill

Kid A (2):

Aegor

, Elias_the_thief
Hephaestus (1): Fat_Tony

Aegor

(1): OkaPoka

Riddleton

(2): Kid A, Csareo
Elias_the_thief (1): beastcharizard
Not Voting (2): PMysterious , T S O

Not much info here. Scum were probably spread out as the game state changed and replacements got their bearings. Note that dybeck has been parked on Csareo since he abandoned his RV in #45; that’s a long time and a lot of pressure for distancing.

#411

Kid A (4):

Aegor

, Elias_the_thief,

Ythill

,

Riddleton

Csareo (1): hephaestus

Aegor

(2): OkaPoka,

dybeck

Riddleton

(2): Kid A, Csareo

dybeck

(1): beastcharizard
Not Voting (3): PMysterious , T S O, Fat_Tony

Look at this pretty wagon. Kid or Elias is likely scum. Maybe both. Dybeck could have followed Riddle and I onto Kid but chose to shift elsewhere against the flow. That makes this double damning for the Feirei slot. Meanwhile, beast turns an eye on dybeck with nothing scummy to gain from it.

#436

Kid A (4):

Aegor

, Elias_the_thief,

Ythill

,

Riddleton

Aegor

(2):

dybeck

, hephaestus

Riddleton

(2): Kid A, Aneninen

dybeck

(1): beastcharizard
Shinobi (1): OkaPoka
Not Voting (3): Shinobi , T S O, Fat_Tony

The pretty green wagon holds for at least 25 posts. Lack of scum jumping on suggests they preferred a long shot. More scumpoints for Kid/Elias. One vote off Aegor, another on; the perception that his wagon was growing already existed in thread. Expect scum to capitalize, especially if Feirie is one of them.

#474

Aegor

(5):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Shinobi, Aneninen, Elias_the_thief
Kid A (2):

Aegor

,

Riddleton

Riddleton

(1): Kid A
beastcharizard (1): OkaPoka

dybeck

(2): beastcharizard,

Ythill

Not Voting (2): Fat_Tony, T S O

Expected scum behavior from Shinobi/Anen/Elias. Double for Elias since he jumped off the pretty green wagon late in the swing. Note that my vote created an option on scum which was ignored in favor of the other choice when Kid’s wagon dissolved.

#525

Aegor

(5):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Aneninen, Elias_the_thief,

Riddleton

dybeck

(2): beastcharizard,

Ythill

Riddleton

(1): Kid A
beastcharizard (1): OkaPoka
Kid A (1):

Aegor

Not Voting (3): Fat_Tony, T S O, Shinobi

Though I find unvotes without revotes to be anti-town, the unvote from Shinobi works against scum interests and he gets townpoints for it. A wagon on town stalled in spite of the fact that we had seven potential votes, which suggests two scum on board: dybeck + heph/Anen/Elias.

#581

Aegor

(5):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Aneninen, Elias_the_thief,

Riddleton

dybeck

(1): beastcharizard

Riddleton

(1): Kid A
hephaestus (1): OkaPoka
Kid A (1):

Aegor

Aneninen (1):

Ythill

Not Voting (3): Fat_Tony, T S O, Shinobi

Major stall suggests a few things. Suggests more heavily that one of heph/Anen/Elias was waiting for townies to return. In light of the srs bsns point and the lack of support on Anen, it makes him look a little scummy. Also, take a look at Oka shifting his vote around on non-topics, trying to look useful without incriminating himself.

#662

(unofficial VC to capture dybeck claim)

Aegor

(4):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Aneninen,

Riddleton

dybeck

(6): beastcharizard ,

Aegor

, Feirei, T S O,

Ythill

, Elias_the_thief
Aneninen (1): OkaPoka
Not Voting (2): Shinobi, Fat_Tony

This was a quick swing from town to scum during a crucial game state and whomever shot Aegor last night should get an award for info creation. Scum would have jumped on dybeck early without pushing too hard. Feirei gets major scumpoints. Scum on the Aegor wagon stayed parked (potentially heph/Anen). Scum would not have shifted from Aegor to dybeck, which means townpoints for Elias. Obvious townpoints for TSO because he created the wagon out of nothing.

Note that Oka is still doing his useless vote act as if there are not major wagons at the end of the day. He threw a lone vote on me somewhere in there too. Beast did something weird where he revoted dybeck in #657 even though he’d been parked on him since #398. Scum trying to get extra credit?

#673

Aegor

(5):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Aneninen,

Riddleton

, Feirei

dybeck

(4): beastcharizard,

Aegor

, T S O, Elias_the_thief
Aneninen (2): OkaPoka,

Ythill

Not Voting (2): Shinobi, Fat_Tony

I jumped off to avoid a hammer while we sorted out the claim. It was unnecessary for Feirei to do so afterwards, and it was convenient for it to choose the other major option on town. Also looking at Shinobi staying out of the fray during this major wagon shift; FT was mostly inactive but Shinobi wasn’t. Town would be riding one of the wagons or trying to start an alternative at this point.

#726

dybeck

(7):

Aegor

, T S O, beastcharizard, Elias_the_thief,

Riddleton

, Aneninen, hephaestus

Aegor

(2):

dybeck

, Feirei
Aneninen (2): OkaPoka,

Ythill

Not Voting (2): Shinobi, Fat_Tony

Not much here, because the CC made the fakeclaim obv. Minor scumpoints for Anen and heph for being late to the game. Like, very minor.

I’m going to post this raw, then go through my notes, condense the behavioral tells, and add in these points. Will post a current read list when I’m done, although I might grab a bite to eat before I do. Not going to be abiding a D2 quicklynch. There is a lot of info in this thread and I’m sure we can make an informed decision.

I’m especially interested in seeing others’ conclusions from the work posted above, and the results of dybeck isos.

[beastcharizard]

I got he was lynched at 252.