Mini 1597: Runecast Mafia - Day 5

[TunnelMates]

I have a lot more spare time than is healthy so I just finished going through Day 2, and I ended up really suspicious of Osseus and *wait for it* less suspicious of Burning_Earth. Konowa's exchange with Thor kinda bothered me, and the self-vote thing had similarities to the way Gameplay demonstrated himself. Does anyone want to ask me questions? I forced myself to ignore all the random inconsistent reads Josh_B was making in his posts.

Anyone here able to do VCA? Could use something else to work against scum.

Nacho it feels like you're ignoring Thor's vote on you, and sorta backing down when he engages you like something's holding you back. I don't like that at all. Plus, when the game pace was kinda fast with wagons and such on D2, you didnt lend yourself to your type of craziness like you did on Day 1.

[TunnelMates]

It is really convenient to say *now* after cop claims and the shabazz, but Lynx doesn't look half as bad as he/she is made out to be. somewhat panicky sounding, but not too tight, just doesn't seem to have things figure out but pushes people who are under the radar

also ossy it feels like your vote is sitting still and not really flexible

[TunnelMates]

Unfortunately Ger has a confirmable role, even if he's threatening to make a scumkill with it. If he kills us that's fine, it's on him. I could go back and forth on it, but the fact is we've played a pretty transparent town game, and the crutch of his reads are shit. Yes Ger, optimally you should have killed GP Night 1, OPTIMALLY is the key word. You didn't, and there's nothing I can do about it. Asking for an optimal kill doesn't make me scum, it makes you a bad Vig. But I digress if you're gonna kill me that's your problem, not mine.

Getting back to Ansuz for a moment, what gives me pause is the composition of his wagon (Ansuz (4): Mantisdreamz, geraintm, Burning_Earth, TunnelMates), which is composed of players I don't particularly trust. (IE Ger, BE, and TM, I think Lynx was here at one point too).

The more I think about it, the more I don't really like the consensus quicklynch today.

VOTE: Osseus

So, the components of the wagon affect your read on Ansuz when you have played with him in all of your games, such that you're still kinda not interested in pressuring them more with a vote. Your view on Ansuz should be pretty biased because of your expeirence. Like you said, you feel you have a good handle on his play. It's Day 3 now.

I had bad feelings because it just feels like you are calling him out for the sake of calling him out throughout this game, and then just disregard the wagon the whole time because "wagon components (all non-flipped players)."

Spoiler: prior experience

Nacho was scum in that game, gosh I should be an expert at reading em right now.

Bone, every time you call Nacho a good bet for scum, I get feelings of Wicked where you cross-bussed as buddies.

Off-topic: Every time I see T-Bone, I get flashbacks of seeing Trace Adkins and Blake Shelton singing Hillbilly Bone buh-bone buh-bone...

At this point every game I have ever played in featured Nacho.

Evidence: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=16571

But to be honest I am getting feelings of 'There is No Doctor'

(1) Ansuz knows that lurking/lack of effort aren't scumtells.

(2) Nacho didn't gauge much about how reactionary hiplop's posts were in its entirety. Instead, he plays it cool with "gee, this wagon is fucking gorgeous." The more he raved about it, the more fog goes into our minds. So, tldr I don't see how he got that read to put hiplop away with purpose.

???
now why did you hammer?

But it won't be MY vote hammering, that's for sure.

Why? You still think that he's scum.
You agree nothing that he's done looks mildly townish.
Are you just afraid to hammer? I can unvote if that's the case.

Now look at this flagrant appeasing on FULL display!

A: I can help you by unvoting.

B: Wait, why did you hammer? what kind of mangling is this

A+ posting would read again.

Even after commenting on this being A+ posting, making it seem like you agree, you proceed to vote someone else.

[TunnelMates]

tl;dr You back down from finding out more for yourself about the Ansuz read.

[Konowa]

So - scum doc? Scum BP?

In this scenario, would strong-willed override doc or block? Would they cancel each other out? Konowa is lacking knowledge there. Was ger -really- strong-willed, or was ger only strong-willed N3 like ger said. If the second, then a scum doc, block, or bulletproof makes sense as to why hydrawithlongname is still alive, but Thor665 isn't arguing that? Konowa may have been overlooking the lack of hydrawithlongname NK because there are too many variables and the Burning_Earth situation is easier to explain.

[Osseus pseudotripodis]

tl;dr You back down from finding out more for yourself about the Ansuz read.

No no no no, you can't have it both ways. You cannot say "OP backed down on his reads yesterday" and then IGNORE my commentary on his claim today to justify this belief. I believe his Vig claim, I stated as such on his last post. So don't try to tell me "it's Day 3 lol OP isn't persuing Ansuz" when I have SORTED him ON Day 3.

[Konowa]

Please don't try to convince me that B_E looks scummy. I do not wish to debate that,

and as I indicated I think a vast number of players are trying very hard to justify themselves as scum today.

Who is this in reference to?

There's a reason I've called B_E dead-weight for a while

Explain please.

[LynxKuroneko]

Because he's barely helped town, at least compared to everyone else.

[Thor665]

So - scum doc? Scum BP?

In this scenario, would strong-willed override doc or block? Would they cancel each other out? Konowa is lacking knowledge there. Was ger -really- strong-willed, or was ger only strong-willed N3 like ger said. If the second, then a scum doc, block, or bulletproof makes sense as to why hydrawithlongname is still alive, but Thor665 isn't arguing that? Konowa may have been overlooking the lack of hydrawithlongname NK because there are too many variables and the Burning_Earth situation is easier to explain.

Okay...first off, strong willed is supposed to stop redirecting or roleblocking.
It would still allow it to be affected by a doctor protect.

Secondly, again, look at his flip - he was listed as a N1 Vengeful.
I submit that if he was N3 Strong-Willed it would SAY that.
It doesn't.
It just says he was Strong Willed.
Ergo - he was lying about that. Maybe trying to draw a kill? Maybe trying to draw a roleblock? I dunno - but the flip doesn't back up what he claims and the flip also shows a willingness to indicate limited powers *and* the night they appeared on. So...why should I think he got anything special N3 exactly? Why do you?

I disagree a scum block explains anything.
I agree that a scum BP or Doc does.
I fail to see how this case has any more variables than the B_E one - why don't you walk me through that?

B_E = scum because a claimed hider claimed he would hide behind him and we theorize scum didn't kill him because B_E is scum.
Osseus = scum because a known Vig claimed he would shoot him and we theorize either Osseus has to be BP or that scum used a Doc on him because there appears to be a missing kill if we buy Ansuz's claim.

It seems if you buy Ansuz than Osseus is certainly at least equal to B_E in 'case that makes sense'
And if you don't buy Ansuz then you should be voting for Ansuz.
So...why are you voting B_E?

Please don't try to convince me that B_E looks scummy. I do not wish to debate that,

and as I indicated I think a vast number of players are trying very hard to justify themselves as scum today.

Who is this in reference to?

If I wanted to bother to call out all the hideous and pro-scum play I was seeing then I would.
I don't.
Let's move on with the knowledge that I simply hate most of the players here who, presumably, have more town PMs amongst them than I can tell.

[TunnelMates]

So don't try to tell me "it's Day 3 lol OP isn't persuing Ansuz" when I have SORTED him ON Day 3.

Meh. Okay...

Ansuz's actions last day phase were consistent with a Vig claim. If not for that I would agree with you. Too many variables for scum to try and pull that off I think. Ger had to kill the wrong player (no way if Ger went through with his kill on me could Ansuz pass that off as the scum kill), and a third kill had to not surface.

Was Ansuz insistent that Ger was scum yesterday AFTER Ger claimed Vig?

I agree, BE should be the lynch today. I don't agree that we need to end this day right this minute, but consider this an intent to hammer.

So, he acted like someone who didn't believe BE and told d3x the same (plus the vig part) in their private QT. How does this debunk the theory below? I thought about this last night, and the more I think about it (putting aside the "mantis was copped" aside), Mantis was still a potential lynch candidate just like me. I looked and during D2 at some point a mantis wagon did sprout.

As for the variables you speak of, it's not hard to pull off when you were accusing Geraint of being an SK, and he could chalk up any extra kill or two (or lack thereof) to "unaccounted kills possible 3rd party"

I would like to propose one alternate theory. Ger's death means Ansuz is scum. He was threatening to shoot one of us, he was really affirmed that it would be my slot he would kill. I suspected (and purposely aggravated), that he was going on about killing us for some misdirection (which presuming he killed Mantiz, this is what he did). ScumAnsuz is afraid the misdirection is to kill him, they pull the trigger.

Now obviously he could make the same argument that we killed Ger for the same reasons, so that's up to you guys to decide.

I like the BE theory as well.

My feeling (instead of the far-fetched role where she can choose a role of someone else's and mirror it) is now that Lynx is a backup cop of some sort (not alignment indicative). Very Organic Chemistry like, or perhaps pick & ban, except the inventions part.

[TunnelMates]

VOTE: Ansuz

[Osseus pseudotripodis]

Whatare you trying to argue, TM?

[Osseus pseudotripodis]

What I was arguing per my read TM, is that Ansuz's actions yesterday were consistent with a player who believes they are a Vig and the only Vig in the set-up. That is what I saw. I think because of all the things that could happen during the night phase it would be incredibly difficult for scumAnsuz to anticipate how night 2 would go far enough in advance to begin to lay the groundwork for a Vig fake claim the day before. If he had just suddenly sprung this claim up on Day 3, that would be a different story.

[TunnelMates]

Who's scum, Boner?

After last night I have the feeling that it's you and Nacho (together again). I hope I'm just on the edge and really wrong though.

Just... Uou so hedgy most of the time on the Ansuz read. your initial read was based some on meta that wasn't really clearly explained, and I'm not buying the way you sorta reversed your read because of the claim.

[TunnelMates]

Either way, Ansuz needs to be cleared up. You sorted him by way of his claim making sense in a vig mindset, when the claim is pretty neutral.

And no, I don't believe him.

[TunnelMates]

I think because of all the things that could happen during the night phase it would be incredibly difficult for scumAnsuz to anticipate how night 2 would go far enough in advance to begin to lay the groundwork for a Vig fake claim the day before.

Really? OK, well I don't see what enormous complications there are. Nacho knows how to control scum gambits and this kind isn't out of his comfort zone.

[Thor665]

Unvote: Ansuz
Vote: Osseus

[d3x]

Here's what I'm thinking re:Konowa and why I think it's important to completely verify his PR.

Scum can have Post Restrictions, so the veracity of the PR is in itself Null. I can see Scum having a Hated modifier and loss of Vote if they break the PR, so that's largely Null. I do not, however, see Scum having a Beloved modifier. Verifying this side of the PR pretty much clears him in my book {I'm already leaning Town, but this would eliminate all doubt and I don't see that as a bad thing}.

We also lose nothing by verifying the PR fully. While yes, you can potentially have a lolHammer; it'd be pretty much impossible if we do this correctly. We don't need a VC posted to show Konowa's still alive, we just need to put him at L-1, have him Vote himself, and then immediately UnVote like 2 seconds later. Per the Rules "no votes/unvotes will count after a majority vote has been reached." If he's lying, he dies when the next VC comes through. If a VC is posted and the Day hasn't been closed, we know that he's telling the truth about being Beloved. The only risk is that when he hits L-1 {for a normal player, but not himself},

2 players

come in and Vote him. I do not see this as being a viable scenario.

I'll get to everything else later tonight, but I still think fully sorting Konowa should happen Today.

[TunnelMates]

I still think fully sorting Konowa should happen Today.

*grumbles* ok

*grumbles*

I do not, however, see Scum having a Beloved modifier.

What's the difference between 'Loved/Hated' and Beloved? Hated is where LYLO is expedited by one day phase if the hated player remains alive, and loved is just needing one extra vote than normal to be lynched. I don't recall Konowa ever mentioning being Beloved.

Beloved

This is all I could find about Beloved.

A Beloved Princess is a player who, upon death, causes the next Day phase to be skipped.

"Beloved" has also been seen as a role modifier that duplicates this effect.

[Thor665]

I think it's fairly clear he meant 'loved' not 'beloved'.

I also don't actually get why you think scum could have one and not the other - I would actually say scum are more likely to get loved than hated.

[Kthxbye]

Yes, d3x is 100% correct.

Quit dicking around.

It takes 5 to lynch. Lynx is the only person voting Konowa. With me and d3x holding out our votes, this should be quick.

Thor, TM, OP: Since you are all active, vote Konowa in next posts. That would put him at L-1 or if his claim is true, L-2. BE and Ansuz, could come in and try and get him lynched, but that just means scum team is found and game is over anyway (assuming true claim). Konowa can come in, vote and then unvote and this shit could be finished before bed.

Stop working against the town wincon fools.

[Kthxbye]

After we prove or disprove Konowa, BE should be lynched, I should hide behind Ansuz or OP (really the only discussion that needs to happen for today), and we can move the fuck on.

[TunnelMates]

I've been Loved as Mafia before, so all the modifiers are fair game for either alignment.

Since you are all active, vote Konowa in next posts.

VOTE: Konowa

Stop working against the town wincon fools.

Here, have a patented Thorella face that Mollie used to post in our hydra.

[LynxKuroneko]

Hide behind OP and I'll investigate Ansuz for Vig conf?

[TunnelMates]

Please town confirm me! :3 It'll make what I have to say tomorrow matter!

Hide behind OP and I'll investigate Ansuz for Vig conf?

What changed during this progression?