I think the supposition that BE is Scum is weaker than OP being Scum. If Scum had knowledge of Mantis, then she'd easily be a priority target over 2x Town, imo.
I think it also may be time to start sorting out all the Claims. I guess it can wait until Tomorrow, but I feel like there's a shit ton of power on Town's side {assuming everyone who's piped up already is being truthful}.
Off the top of my head, we're looking at 2x Vigs, a Hider, a Role Cop, a Backup, a Loved/Hated townie, a whatever Thor is {I don't remember what gp said the Role's name was}, a whatever I've hinted at being... and a VT {two with BE}.
BE is by far the best lynch today. Unless there is a doc claiming protection on BE last night to save me if BE turned out to be town, there is no chance scum would have left me to clear a second town and left me alive to do it again N3. This isnt even taking into account that they left my already confirmed town (dex) alive on top of it. To say scum targeted someone other than town-BE or confirmed town d3x is fucking stupid.
ALSO ADD IN THE FACT that BE isnt saying shit confirms it. Scum BE is avoiding posting to avoid linking himself to his partner (assuming 3 scum team). It's simple and all other talk trying to go away from these facts is scummy to be honest.
What makes most sense? Scum assuming I'm dead by hiding behind scum-BE and going elsewhere or leaving me to confirm a town-BE and letting us make a solid town block of 3?
hiding behind OP tonight.
lynx needs to confirm thor's PR claim tonight.
barring other claims, this should lead to a scum lynch today and make for an easy town win.
If you think I'm scum D1, bet all your money I'm town.
I disagree d3x. taking out 2 town over one is the better move for scum. both mantis and I could confirm things. I can confirm towniness though where mantis could only confirm PR. Konowas PR could still be scum. Thors PR could be scum (especially with 2 vig claims).
If you think I'm scum D1, bet all your money I'm town.
In post 1561, d3x wrote:@OP- Why do you think you're still alive?
Now for a few observations.
Mantis didn't get a 'bad' result from her N1 Investigation. She opens with a TM Vote and then switches to Ansuz. Initially it was a quote, but she doesn't change her Vote back to TM. I don't think we can clear anyone off of her, either. There seems to be no real flips from her Reads at the end of D1 to the beginning of D2 {unless I'm missing something}.
Josh's Vote on BE is Null. It was either Josh or BE D2.
HS/Josh's Voting record looks as such...
TM, Lynx, Lynx, BE
I don't see the amount of time spent on pushing Lynx as a Bus. It was his only real contribution to the game. TM was an early RVS Vote and BE was a late 'him or me' Vote. It is interesting that Lynx was left off of the ReadsList, though.
At the time of his death, Josh's ReadList was...
Kthx is town.
D3x is town.
Osseus is town.
MantisDreamz
is town.
Burning Earth is town.
Gameplay is town.
LYNCH EVERYONE else in this order...
Tunnelmates
Ansuz
In post 1178, geraintm wrote:
No, if we lynched ozzy and he turned up scum, then I would shoot Ansuz as he is the person I think is the person second most likely to be scum. Why on earth would I shoot anyone else besides my second choice?
I am just not understanding your thinking. At all
What if we lynch Burning earth and he turns up scum. Who will you shoot then?
This is an interesting post, given what we now know.
With the above information coupled with my previous VCA, I'm more inclined to see BE Swing Today. Having said that, I will be on either BE or OP for the Lynch Today.
Are you shitting me, Lynx? Did you read my post? The Vote on BE was to save his own ass. He made almost no actual effort to build up the Wagon, it was as if he was just expected to crossVote because that's SOP. In fact, in my quick refresher skim just now, 1 of the 3 times he mentions BE after the Vote, he actually lists him as TOWN.
What specifically makes you think that about his BE Vote?
If you mean Josh listing B_E as town, he listed Mantis as town and geraintm as scum, so his reads were pointless. B_E always had some heat on him for being lurky / unhelpful, it'd make sense if he hoped town would just do to B_E what they did to hiplop.
When locked in a fortress in your own mind, be careful what door you open.
The only players in the game who know everyone's alignment are Scum. That means Josh's List has nothing to do with his Reads. Scum posting ReadsLists have to be very discerning in that they have to be grounded in what's actually happening in the game, but not being so far off that if your partners get caught, you're too obvious. Generally speaking, Scum will have a partner in the Scum/Null pile and the rest in the Town pile.
This sucks not having daychat. I didn't leave. I was at a Royal ranger training. The empty OMGUS vote is what made it bad. There at least could have had some comment to go with it. Plus I thought it was a legitimate FoS for that time of the game. I really wish you would have let tIP and Rach respond to that before you jumped in. Now, I feel like we are going to have to tunnel each other the whole rest of the game. Maybe it will work out for one of us to get to LYLO, but I don't think that both of us will survive. This weekend, Starting thursday, I'm going to be at drill. If the next day starts, don't mention it though. But you can complain that I'm not there, and that I'm V/LA all the time so you can't get a good read on the slot.
-Also when you bussed me like that, I screamed at the computer. A DP1 bus during RVS is never a good idea. unless it was for RVS, and it certainly wasn't an RVS vote. Let's think about who will call it. tIP might.
I want you to target someone that we definitely do not plan to night kill. Voting me was, and wasn't a good move. It gives me a lot of town cred when you flip scum but it makes me look highly suspicious until that happens.
I also want you to ignore one player. Don't respond to anything they say. and if they say something directly to you blow it off, say something in your own words that calls that player a bad player. I'm thinking that you should ignore Rach. I really want to make a game out of her being your partner.
That reinforces my position on Lynx based on my above post, but I don't think it neccessarily excludes BE from possible Scum. He didn't Vote until he absolutely had to {it would've looked really suspicious had he not} and then still listed him as Town.
I don't trust my reads but they're the same as earlier except with Lynx switched out with Osseus for - <B_E, Ansuz> as somewhat scum and OP main scumread. Rest varying levels of town.
Sorry for the back-to-backs, but I was phoneposting. I'm at my computer now and would like to expound on the above thoughts.
It's highly improbable that Scum would end the Day Bussing a losing battle into HS when they could garner an easy ride onto the hiplopWagon. That makes Kthx and Konowa look pretty good.
It's even more highly improbable that 2 Scum would be pushing the same nonLynch Wagon; especially considering there were only 3 Votes on said Wagon. That makes gp/Thor look great.
I feel a lynch based on the scum's behavioural choices is incorrect. Let's lynch based on who has behaved the worst ITT. That is Ansuz. The other scum is, I think, TM.
How many people long for that "past, simpler, and better world," I wonder,
without ever recognizing the truth that perhaps it was they who were simpler and better,
and not the world about them?
