Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[fuzzybutternut]

Why should my reads fluctuate?
Why? Please explain why reads should change.

Do you not understand how to play this game? As town, you have to look at

everyone

as possible scum. You can't spend two whole days looking at

one

person and expect everyone to just believe you when you say "oh, this guy's scum. sheep me for victories." Yeah, it doesn't work like that. In fact, your hesitance to even acknowledge Riddleton makes me think you two

are

the last two scum.

You did not give NM a chance. You said "Oh, I

guess

he could be scum, but I'm going to tunnel on Fuzzy more."

You clearly don't understand this setup. No one has more incentive to lynch anyone more than anyone else.

Everyone

has to scumhunt if they want to win. Town has to do more work to win, but their incentive isn't any greater than anyone elses. The lack of work you've been doing proves to me that you

are

scum.

[fuzzybutternut]

EBWOP: First two lines should be in quotes but fuck it.

[Aegor]

Do you not understand how to play this game? As town, you have to look at

everyone

as possible scum.

I did and am. It does not follow that my reads should change. It is likely they will, but we both know that I replaced into this game with several days elapsed. That means that I read through everything that had been written since the beginning of the game all at once. My reads are solid and based on the entire content of the game, even if they are fallible.

You can't spend two whole days looking at

one

person and expect everyone to just believe you when you say "oh, this guy's scum. sheep me for victories."

I am not asking anyone to sheep me. My reasons for suspecting you are pretty clear. I happen to have pegged scum. Why should I abandon a prime suspect simply to satisfy your irrational approach to this game?

You did not give NM a chance. You said "Oh, I

guess

he could be scum, but I'm going to tunnel on Fuzzy more."

I pushed and questioned NM. This is public information, given that my posts are available to anyone reading this thread. When his answers were unsatisfying, I was sure

enough

that he was the WW to hammer him.

You clearly don't understand this setup. No one has more incentive to lynch anyone more than anyone else.

You just got done calling me scum for wanting to lynch the mafia more than the werewolf. Now you are telling me that I do not understand the setup because

no one

, including the mafia, has more incentive to lynch anyone more than anyone else.

Forgive me for doubting your motives when the only common element to your posting is calling me, who just happens to be the player attacking you the most, scum.

That aside, this setup

is

asymmetrical, which means priorities are different. Mafia do not get a NK and have only three members; they consequently, especially near the endgame, are more compelled to eliminate the other anti-town faction. One mafioso is a greater loss to the mafia than one townie is to the town.

Everyone

has to scumhunt if they want to win. Town has to do more work to win, but their incentive isn't any greater than anyone elses. The lack of work you've been doing proves to me that you

are

scum.

Yawn.

[Paschendale]

Aegor, why are you trying to convince Fuzzy and not myself or Bins?

[Aegor]

Because you are not posting and my case against fuzzy has already been made.

[Bins]

How did you find Riddle's ISO?

[Bins]

That aside, this setup is asymmetrical, which means priorities are different. Mafia do not get a NK and have only three members; they consequently, especially near the endgame, are more compelled to eliminate the other anti-town faction. One mafioso is a greater loss to the mafia than one townie is to the town.

This, however, very much depends on the situation the Mafia are in. I was thinking about this as well, and there are scenarios in which Mafia would want the WW killed and would not want the WW killed. The Mafia could have been wolfreading NM the whole time and never strongly pushed it.

My point is, if Mafia believed Not_Mafia was WW, and they weren't Riddleton or Fuzzy, they'd actually want him to be left alive for one more day.

Does that make sense?

[Bins]

my case against fuzzy has already been made.

Again, I don't see a case. Am I skimming over it?

[Paschendale]

It's some nitpicks and arguments, not a case. It ended up being "I read the whole game at once, so trust my reads". Which does nothing to convince anyone that he's not simply lying.

[Aegor]

I have gone through Riddleton's ISO. I see nothing scummy in it, and I agree completely with him that the most likely scum pair is fuzzy/Pasch.

Anyone who thinks Riddleton is scum is more than welcome to explain why, so I can understand the thinking.

[Bins]

cghjkl.

It's interesting how Pasch thought he was uncontested town then. But like, if I had to go with gut right now - which is awful because it's lylo, I'd have smacked a vote down on Riddleton already.

[fuzzybutternut]

I have gone through Riddleton's ISO. I see nothing scummy in it, and I agree completely with him that the most likely scum pair is fuzzy/Pasch.

Anyone who thinks Riddleton is scum is more than welcome to explain why, so I can understand the thinking.

of course you haven't seen anything. He hasn't

done

anything.
at all.

[fuzzybutternut]

as far as the previous argument, I'm done with it. It's like talking to a brick wall, honestly. All you've done is dismiss everything I've said. The most likely scum pair is Aegor/Riddleton. I very seriously doubt Pasch and Bins are scum, just based off the way they're playing today. I'll likely read over them some more when I actually get the chance, but I don't really have the time right now. I believe Aegor is who we should lynch today, unless Riddleton actually has something he'd like to do other than, well, nothing. The worst possible thing we could have in a LYLO situation is someone who doesn't contribute at all.

[Aegor]

This, however, very much depends on the situation the Mafia are in. I was thinking about this as well, and there are scenarios in which Mafia would want the WW killed and would not want the WW killed. The Mafia could have been wolfreading NM the whole time and never strongly pushed it.

My point is, if Mafia believed Not_Mafia was WW, and they weren't Riddleton or Fuzzy, they'd actually want him to be left alive for one more day.

So what would

my

hypothetical motivation be as scum to vote NM, given that after his unsatisfactory responses to my questions, I thought he could well be a WW?

Again, I don't see a case. Am I skimming over it?

In addition to all of his posts that I have quoted, which are individually scummy, consider his interactions with SM/Titus and his votes/posting in the pages preceding the Day 1 lynch, especially his late SplashCloud vote.

It's some nitpicks and arguments, not a case. It ended up being "I read the whole game at once, so trust my reads". Which does nothing to convince anyone that he's not simply lying.

[Bins]

So what would my hypothetical motivation be as scum to vote NM, given that after his unsatisfactory responses to my questions, I thought he could well be a WW?

You weren't at risk of getting NK'd by NM, neither was Riddleton. He probably would have gone with Fuzzy, but I can't say that for sure. Which is why it makes sense that you would be okay with lynching someone who definitely not a WW.

[Bins]

Having a NK is a lot better for Mafia, but like yeah ofc they can't control it. If we correctly lynch today, we probably have it in the bag.

[Paschendale]

cghjkl.

It's interesting how Pasch thought he was uncontested town then. But like, if I had to go with gut right now - which is awful because it's lylo, I'd have smacked a vote down on Riddleton already.

I'm uncontested by the other town players. Likewise, I'm pretty okay with lynching Riddleton today. Then it'll be 3v1 and we'll lynch Aegor tomorrow and win. I'm gonna reread Riddle's ISO and make sure.

[Aegor]

of course you haven't seen anything. He hasn't

done

anything.
at all.

Strange; I could say the same about you. And given that your case on Riddleton is that he is "not doing anything" -- despite his reasonable number of posts and clearly expressed reads -- while my case on you is that your posts are actively scummy, I see no reason why anyone should find your non-case credible.

as far as the previous argument, I'm done with it. It's like talking to a brick wall, honestly. All you've done is dismiss everything I've said.

What you have said is factually inaccurate or completely irrational, as I have clearly explained. I have not merely dismissed what you said, I have rebutted it successfully. I am sorry that you are unable to construct coherent cases. But you are scum, so maybe that is why.

The most likely scum pair is Aegor/Riddleton. I very seriously doubt Pasch and Bins are scum, just based off the way they're playing today. I'll likely read over them some more when I actually get the chance, but I don't really have the time right now. I believe Aegor is who we should lynch today, unless Riddleton actually has something he'd like to do other than, well, nothing. The worst possible thing we could have in a LYLO situation is someone who doesn't contribute at all.

I can think of one worse thing: have a clear scum candidate who gets passed over for inexplicable reasons.

You should explain your Pasch town read; it makes no sense to me.

[Bins]

Honestly, the suggestion that he wanted to vote last seemed very town, actually. I don't think scum would have suggested that.

[Bins]

Fuzzy agreeing to it irked me slightly. If he's scum, it makes me feel as if I'm (and Pasch is) totally wrong about what I'm thinking.

[Aegor]

You weren't at risk of getting NK'd by NM, neither was Riddleton. He probably would have gone with Fuzzy, but I can't say that for sure. Which is why it makes sense that you would be okay with lynching someone who definitely not a WW.

Which I was. But by that same reasoning, those players who were

particularly

intent on lynching the WW should also be scrutinized.

[Aegor]

Honestly, the suggestion that he wanted to vote last seemed very town, actually. I don't think scum would have suggested that.

Why not? Surely after your analysis of scum motivation vis-a-vis the WW lynch yesterday, you can grasp the reason that a scum may want to guarantee himself a quickhammer position?



Anyway, my earlier setup analysis is wrong, I have just realized. If we lynch correctly today, tomorrow is not lylo. Which is weird in that the game proceeds from lylo to not lylo. Anywho...

[Bins]

Honestly, the suggestion that he wanted to vote last seemed very town, actually. I don't think scum would have suggested that.

Why not? Surely after your analysis of scum motivation vis-a-vis the WW lynch yesterday, you can grasp the reason that a scum may want to guarantee himself a quickhammer position?



Anyway, my earlier setup analysis is wrong, I have just realized. If we lynch correctly today, tomorrow is not lylo. Which is weird in that the game proceeds from lylo to not lylo. Anywho...

Yes, but he suggested it. That doesn't seem like something scum would just say.

And yeah, to the last part, is why Mafia would have wanted to keep WW around for as long as possible.

[Aegor]

Again, I disagree. Scum had a strong incentive to become the only anti-town faction and eliminate the possibility of getting NKed.

[Aegor]

And I disagree about Pasch as well; that is exactly something I would expect scum to say.