Mini 1604 -- Zodiac Mafia (Game Over)

[Iecerint]

OK, that makes sense to me.

Unvote; Vote: Nacho

[ToastyToast]

No, I did not realize that. I readily believe that games are being lost because people overvalue their town reads and misapply them in the process, but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with PoE. I personally tend to be cautious in handing out town reads and very rarely am completely fooled by scum. I feel that in after the D1 deadline shenanigans, PoE is warranted. And unless I see a compelling reason why I shouldn't be town reading Pere and Iecerint (and you), I'm not going to change my approach.

Overvaluing reads and PoE go hand in hand though. Town blocks make me want to vomit.

And your reads seem to be diametrically opposed to mine, so I'm having a lot of trouble understanding where you are coming from.

[ToastyToast]

OK, that makes sense to me.

Unvote; Vote: Nacho

This is a lazy hop.

[Nachomamma8]

CTD, your partner is Xayzeck.

[Nachomamma8]

I think scum is between nacho/CTD/Iecerint. I don't really know where to start though.

I don't know why SC was killed either.

Start with CTD. Why do you think that Xayzeck is town again? I might be able to clear up some misconceptions since its a view that I've held for some time as well.

[Nachomamma8]

@Nacho-

You have a reason for the CTD vote?

I have a reason for everything that I do, Peregrine. The main reason is because I think he is scum. Other reasons will come with time.

[Nachomamma8]

Preemptive no this won't be all I plan on contributing today but contributions will come in small chunks. Each small chunk will come with a good bit of information like Xayzeck is the other scum.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Nacho

I've seen town Nacho fight like a maniac to avoid what he thought was a town lynch in more than one game. It involved a lot of screaming, pushing and browbeating. Here he didn't even bother to present a viable alternative wagon. I understand time constrains and being disenfranchised from a game, but it's not like he wasn't around at the critical time. I find it incredibly unlikely that town Nacho would post the town case he posted for Aronis and then just leave it at that so close to deadline.

I have other reasons to vote him over Dry-fit, but it requires some rereading and I don't have the time right now.

Time constraints are time constraints, and having the ability to fight a lynch doesn't manifest itself every time I'm in danger, having the ability to save a town read doesn't mean it happens every time they are in danger.

[PeregrineV]

@RC- V/LA this weekend mostly- I'll be out of town, mostly.

[Iecerint]

Nacho's accio'd posts are not terribly inspiring.

[RedCoyote]

Nachomamma8,

Townie

, was modkilled on D3.

[RedCoyote]

Aries' Daily Horoscope:

Are you involved in a creative project that involves modern technology, Aries? If so, progress could be made by leaps and bounds, starting today. A lucky break might set you off in a new direction that adds depth and dimension to your work. Relations with colleagues should be warm, congenial, and supportive. There is a sense of unity that pervades the group and adds to the energy and enthusiasm. You will love the results of your efforts.

Aquarius' Daily Horoscope:

Are you single, Aquarius? If so, today you might fall in love at first sight. You may have been frustrated lately by the lack of available, interesting people, but today you could meet someone who seems too perfect for words. And you can rest assured that the attraction is mutual! If you're already involved, you can expect a revival of the fairytale romance between you and a significant other.

Leo's Daily Horoscope:

A powerful bond between you and a romantic partner could have you walking around with your head in the clouds, Leo. Things between you seem to be improving by leaps and bounds. Right now it all seems just too perfect. Savor every moment of your time together. You will want to remember them when times aren't quite so easy. We all deserve such halcyon days. You and your beloved should definitely make the most of it.

Sagittarius' Daily Horoscope:

An unexpected letter or package might arrive sometime today, Sagittarius. This could be a gift from a lover - perhaps a bit more lavish than you would have expected. You could receive other communications as well. At least one could be related to your job in some way. A party invitation could also come, and you will probably want to attend. A significant other will want to accompany you.

Scorpio's Daily Horoscope:

If you've asked your employer for a raise recently, Scorpio, the astral energy indicates that you can expect to receive one soon. Your employer is greatly impressed with your efforts, and probably thinking that you might be setting your sights elsewhere. Opportunities may certainly appear, although this is obviously not the time to make a decision. Take some time to really think and consider everything carefully.

Virgo's Daily Horoscope:

Virgo, love of all kinds - the love of friends, the affection of family members, romantic love - flourishes in the home today as a number of visitors come to your door, perhaps unexpectedly. One of your guests could bring some wonderful news about money. A strong sense of unity among all those present should be very apparent, at least to you.

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Vote Count 3 - 1

• Not Voting (6) ( PeregrineV - Xayzeck - ToastyToast - Dry-fit - CrashTextDummie - Iecerint)

With six alive, it takes four to lynch.
Current Deadline:

(expired on 2014-10-10 21:15:00)

[Dry-fit]

This sucks. I would say we should consider no lynch here, but it's possible scum could get another daykill and end the game instantly.

I don't know why Iecerint is a town read for some(such as Nacho). It seems to be because of his actions exposing Salamence day 1. But I could see that cming from scum easily looking to gain cred for pointing out things that would be brought up eventually anyway.

[Dry-fit]

I'm guessing that maybe Nacho broke his post restriction?

[Iecerint]

I am inclined to no lynch. In addition to the 6 player situation, a living town player may have the hide/roleblock available, which may allow for someone to be cleared tomorrow depending upon how the deaths work.

Using the hypo-hide is probably pretty risky at this point if it works like a typical hide.

[Dry-fit]

According to the rules the hider dies if they are town and hide behind scum.

If the hider hides behind the townie who get shot town instantly loses.

We also don't even know if the hider is still alive.

[Dry-fit]

I mean I think it's only a 3% chance of scum getting a daykill tomorrow but it's a possibility.

[Iecerint]

1. Yes, that is why it is risky.
2. The chance of the roleblocker being alive is greater and more relevant.

Are the horoscopes totally random, or random without replacement?

[RedCoyote]

Totally random.

[Iecerint]

Still worth it, I think. I'll just shrug if I lose due to that.

[CrashTextDummie]

I am inclined to no lynch. In addition to the 6 player situation, a living town player may have the hide/roleblock available, which may allow for someone to be cleared tomorrow depending upon how the deaths work.

Using the hypo-hide is probably pretty risky at this point if it works like a typical hide.

I'd expect a living town hider to have already used his shot. At least I don't see a compelling reason why he would have wanted to hold it.

A town roleblocker can't clear anyone if we no lynch. If he doesn't block the kill, he can't even clear himself. If he blocks the kill, we'll still be in mylo, just with a 1 vs. 1 standoff.

However if we do lynch and hit scum, a town roleblocker could either catch the final scum or clear someone. If we lynch and hit town, a town roleblocker could still save the game with a successful block (and would have improved odds to do so).

I think risk/reward is better if we lynch today.

My go-to lynch options would be Dry-fit/Xayceck, but I'll admit to being pretty surprised that Nacho flipped town and I haven't seriously considered that pairing, so I'm going to review.

[Iecerint]

Town RB can catch someone by blocking the kill. It's WIFOM between that and scum no-killing, though.

If a kill happens, we go from mylo to lylo, meaning that we have a better chance of lynching correctly.

Frankly there is no one in the game that I consider to be obvtown, so I think it is likely that a player that at least some people suspect will be killed if we no-lynch.

To be honest, I think the very best case scenario is the following:

1. No lynch. Town has the roleblock.
2. The roleblocker is not nightkilled. The roleblock is not used (to avoid the WIFOM element).
3. Lynch scum in lylo.
4. Roleblocker roleblocks to clear or find scum.
5. Final lylo.

[ToastyToast]

Downside to no lynching is that scum will probably kill whoever is being town read

[Iecerint]

Frankly there is no one in the game that I consider to be obvtown, so I think it is likely that a player that at least some people suspect will be killed if we no-lynch.

[Xayzeck]

Downside to no lynching is that scum will probably kill whoever is being town read

I don't think we've got a universally townread player at the moment, though.