Mini 1604 -- Zodiac Mafia (Game Over)

[ToastyToast]

Downside to no lynching is that scum will probably kill whoever is being town read

I don't think we've got a universally townread player at the moment, though.

Yeah I was just thinking about it. I think we should no lynch but I would like everyone to post a brief summary of our reads so no one makes a dumb decision next day phase.

[RedCoyote]

Aries' Daily Horoscope:

The amazing thing about your nature is that, like a good politician, you have just the right tone of voice and catch phrase for every situation. You can put on your smile and charm and talk your way out of just about any pickle you get into. Embrace this incredible gift, but make sure that your overall goals are noble as opposed to self-serving or vengeful.

Aquarius' Daily Horoscope:

Suppose you were someone else for a day, Aquarius. How would it feel to be treated the way you normally treat other people? This is a good time to put yourself in someone else's shoes and experience life through their eyes. By doing this, you're apt to become more conscious of your own actions and the effect of those actions on the people around you.

Leo's Daily Horoscope:

Start the day with some vigorous yoga and then some meditation to help clear your mind, Leo. Stretch your body and get the blood flowing through all of your limbs. Once your blood is flowing, your mind will get moving. Before it gets too far into its noisy routine, take the opportunity to maintain a quiet, serene state while you clear out the static and set forth your goals for the day.

Sagittarius' Daily Horoscope:

Imagination and fantasy play a big part in your thinking today, Sagittarius, and you shouldn't hesitate to embrace this frame of mind. There's a great deal of power to be drawn from your sense of freedom to explore and dream. Your thinking is more of a higher consciousness now. You should take advantage of this lofty perspective to see things from a neutral viewpoint.

Scorpio's Daily Horoscope:

It may seem like everyone around you is happy and getting what they want while you're stuck in the trenches, Scorpio. Don't compare yourself to other people and make judgments based on outside appearances. The truth of the matter is that they're most likely only looking at the immediate future and experiencing short-term pleasures. You, however, have your sights set on the long-term and will probably be much better off.

Virgo's Daily Horoscope:

Do something for the community today, Virgo, and really consider how your talents and skills can best be put to work. Consider volunteering at a school or library. Donate blood or help the elderly. Whatever you do, smile knowing that you're making direct contact with friends who need your assistance. Instead of just complaining about the way things are going, take a proactive role in leading the way toward a more philanthropic world.

---

Vote Count 3 - 2

• Not Voting (6) ( PeregrineV - Xayzeck - ToastyToast - Dry-fit - CrashTextDummie - Iecerint)

With six alive, it takes four to lynch.
Current Deadline:

(expired on 2014-10-10 21:15:00)

[CrashTextDummie]

To be honest, I think the very best case scenario is the following:

1. No lynch. Town has the roleblock.
2. The roleblocker is not nightkilled. The roleblock is not used (to avoid the WIFOM element).
3. Lynch scum in lylo.
4. Roleblocker roleblocks to clear or find scum.
5. Final lylo.

Clearly that's not best case scenario?

Best case scenario is we lynch scum today, the kill is blocked, we gain a lynch and very likely win the game.
Second best scenario is we lynch scum today, the kill is not blocked but the roleblocker manages to confirm a town player.

Worst case scenario is obviously we lynch town today, the kill is not blocked and we lose outright. I don't think no lynching today significantly improves our chances of getting that first lynch decision right, though. It's true there doesn't seem to be an obvious town player for scum to take out, but they still get to tailor endgame to their purposes.

[Iecerint]

Best course of action, then.

The intended contrast was mainly that there may be benefit to delaying the roleblock by 1 night. I realized it based upon your points about using the roleblock when 1 scum remained was ideal. Waiting one day to make the lynch-> roleblock chain maybe happen leaves us in the same position with the benefit of an easier lynch task (40% > 33%), but at the risk of the roleblocker dying during the night (which is only relevant if that person is town, anyway).

[Dry-fit]

Something we're overlooking is that town doesn't only lose by no lynching if scum gets an extra daykill tomorrow. We also lose if a towne gets opposite alignment empowered. And possibly L-1 Lynch. We also don't know if scum has some other ability to force a win. Though I admit it's unlikely that they do.

I want to lynch CTD or Iec today. I really don't like Iec proposing a no lynch without considering all the horoscopes that could make it a bad idea.

[Iecerint]

Unless I have misunderstood the rules, the horoscopes aren't any more likely to swing things one way or the other.

[Iecerint]

To be honest, I think the very best case scenario is the following:

1. No lynch. Town has the roleblock.
2. The roleblocker is not nightkilled. The roleblock is not used (to avoid the WIFOM element).
3. Lynch scum in lylo.
4. Roleblocker roleblocks to clear or find scum.
5. Final lylo.

Clearly that's not best case scenario?

Best case scenario is we lynch scum today, the kill is blocked, we gain a lynch and very likely win the game.
Second best scenario is we lynch scum today, the kill is not blocked but the roleblocker manages to confirm a town player.

Worst case scenario is obviously we lynch town today, the kill is not blocked and we lose outright. I don't think no lynching today significantly improves our chances of getting that first lynch decision right, though. It's true there doesn't seem to be an obvious town player for scum to take out, but they still get to tailor endgame to their purposes.

I'm talking about base case scenario of choices we could make. Obviously if we "choose" to lynch scum every day that is the best case scenario.

[ToastyToast]

Alright, so here are my scum reads. I'm not going to make any long cases but its where my head is at.

Firstly, I'd like to point out that

all four of the people who weren't on the Salamance lynch are currently alive

. Just sayin.

CTD/burn

People Burn voted: Dry-fit, Salamance (scum), Juls/Aronis (town)
People voted: Aronis (town), Nacho (town), Dry-fit (my biggest town read)
Replaced: burn, who, if memory serves, had quite a bit of suspicion on them. I have no idea what CTD has done to clear this suspicion.
People who have voted against the slot: Salamance (scum), PeregrineV, GeminiBlind (town), Juls/Aronis (town), Nacho (town)

I think that by itself says a bunch. CTD's reads have been very opposed to my own, and given the flips, they should at the very least have little credibility. Being wrong about lynches in and of itself is not scummy, but I find his reasons for suspicion lacking. I feel like CTD is scum trying to go after tougher players to figure out, and to cast suspicion on players previously considered town. Meanwhile, this distracts from the fact that much of the dead found him suspicious as well. If we no lynch, CTD should without question be lynched next.

I find his posts after the nacho lynch suspicious as well. There is no significant change in his reads, and his reading into the no lynch suggestion is unecessary. The possibility of scum gaining powers is a scary one, and if CTD is really that concerned about the "risk/reward," then would he be willing to risk being lynched right now to prove he stands behind it? Probably not. I see CTD as someone trying to lead the town in a direction when he really should be sheeping at this point given the previous failures of his reads (or, at least, he should think a little harder about his reads given that nacho "oh so shockingly" flipped town). I am

almost

willing to bet that he and iecerint are scum together.

Iecerint

People he's voted: Juls/Aronis (town), WitnessProtection/Toasty, Salamance (scum), Peregrine (he also mentioned suspecting Dry-Fir at one point), Aronis again, Xayzcek, Nacho (town, and this was after Xayzceks "I'm voting nacho because I don't like him being around long lololol policy lynch bs, AND CTD's belief that nacho was scum because he "wan't trying hard enough. Bad sheeping at its finest)
People who have voted against Iecerint: StrangerCoug (town), Xayzcek, Nacho (town)

So in addition to being town-read by people for no reason (never good), he's also been fairly buddy-buddy with CTD. I've also felt he was suspicious since the beginning. The lack of active improvement (something that I usually see when playing with Iecerint) also worries me. he has also effectively suspected EVERYONE OTHER than CTD. so......I for one think that is very telling. There has been a lot of active lurking here and very little content. Nonetheless, my scumread on him is partly dependent on CTD, so I don't think he should be lynched first.
Oh, he also called me anti-town despite having played with me before. Don't think I don't remember stuff like that...

And now that I've caught up, that's about all I have to say on the topic. D:

Iecerint summarizing his role in this game.

Looking through his posts, there is also a lot of "hey, you should vote Toasty with me." "why aren't you voting PV?" with little explanations as to why. Its that sort of subtle manipulation that always stand out when performing ISO'S...

If I were to pick a third, it would be Xayzeck, but really I think Xayzeck is such lynch bait at this point and the most likely mislynch target for scum.

Oh, and for reference:

People Salamance voted for:

burn/CTD, PeregrineV, Xayzeck

People who voted against Salamance at some point:

StrangerCoug, burn/CTD, dryfit, nacho, xayzeck, peregrineV, ToastyToast, GeminiBlind,

People on the Salamance lynch:

StrangerCoug (town), ToastyToast, Iecerint, Nacho (town), Dry-fit, Aronis (town)

People off the Salamence lynch:

CTD, Gemini, Xayzeck (on Aronis); Salamance (on Xayzeck); PeregrineV (not voting)

[Iecerint]

I thought PV was scummy because Salamence killed Elyse contrary to his scumread on PV. This is really consistent with PV being scum with Salamence, since Salamence would want to kill PV due to PV being a "scumread." The counter argument ("omg but PV pushed him so hard") just makes his choice not to kill PV more glaring.

I switched to Aronis away from him to avoid a NL and didn't pursue it at first today mainly because it seemed like no one in the game thought it, and I thought it was weird that Nacho had abandoned it, and then CTD or someone mentioned the Nacho case, so I switched to Nacho.

[Iecerint]

I have not evaluated the extent to which that is valid, but if it is, I figure it may implicate one of them given a scumflip, especially since Elyse had been under a bit of scrutiny already. It could also imply that Elyse had an uncommon-but-accurate read.

Pedit: It => PV/Xayzeck having more Salamence scrutiny than Elyse. I doubt Nacho would make it up tho so.

That was my thought as well, and it seems like a glaring neon sign points to PV over Xayzeck but that might just be me.

Here are the relevance posts about PV being scum from D1, including Nacho quoting me and agreeing with me, hence my feeling weird by today when no one seemed interested in assisting me onto him and he also didn't.

This doesn't mean that I think PV should be lynched today; I think NL should occur today. It doesn't even mean that I think PV is most likely scum of the players alive right now. But, the history of that read should be pretty clear.

[Iecerint]

Also, Toasty asking everyone to post reads before a NL (subsequent to arguing that the towniest player would be nightkilled if we NL) is terribad, one way or the other.

[ToastyToast]

Also, Toasty asking everyone to post reads before a NL (subsequent to arguing that the towniest player would be nightkilled if we NL) is terribad, one way or the other.

Here you go again saying shit without any actual basis behind it. Why is it bad to post reads? If someone dies then we have stuff to go off of. And its what we should be doing anyway.

[CrashTextDummie]

I've contemplated this game and have some food for thought.

Everyone who flipped so far has been vanilla. Either there's a considerable amount of town power left among an increasingly shallow pool of players or we're all vanilla and this is functionally a limited-reveal game. If it's the latter (as I suspect), it's unfathomable to me that there are 2 scum left. 3 vs. 9 is inherently scum sided and the horoscopes don't favor either side (town is statistically more likely to receive both good and bad luck). If anything it favors scum, since the majority of good luck is more powerful in scum's hand and the majority of bad luck is more damaging in town's hand. Add the possibility of devastating power landing in scum's hand, as happened on D1, and I'm seeing a horribly imbalanced set up.

Needless to say, we should mass claim. I'm vanilla town. Order doesn't matter to me. If it indeed turns out that this is an all vanilla set up, I'd consider it a given that we are only looking for one more scum player and there would be even less reason to no lynch, IMO.

[CrashTextDummie]

I want to lynch CTD or Iec today.

Your reasoning for wanting to lynch me and your current read on Xazeck, please.

----------

Toasty, I don't think your case against me is ill-intended, but it is very misguided. Most of your arguments, as well as your unwillingness to actually engage me on any of our opposed reads indicate to me a deep paranoia that's clouding your judgement:

Meanwhile, this distracts from the fact that much of the dead found him suspicious as well.

Gemini Blind didn't have me as a strong scum read. StrangerCoug actually had me in his town block. That's the people who were killed at night. Aronis also didn't have me as a strong scum read. The only player who died wanting me dead was Nacho.

Meanwhile,

all

the dead town players were scum reading Xayzeck.

I see CTD as someone trying to lead the town in a direction when he really should be sheeping at this point given the previous failures of his reads (or, at least, he should think a little harder about his reads given that nacho "oh so shockingly" flipped town).

1. My reads weren't as bad as you make them out to be.
2. I am an opinionated player and don't sheep on principle. You are correct in that I am trying to lead the town. I always do.
3. There is still very little indication that I was wrong about any of my current town reads, giving me no reason to sheep anyone on to them.
4. I

am

thinking harder given Nacho's flip. Howere it does not in itself change my core beliefs about this game.

The possibility of scum gaining powers is a scary one, and if CTD is really that concerned about the "risk/reward," then would he be willing to risk being lynched right now to prove he stands behind it? Probably not.

The possibility of scum gaining powers is only scary if we are in lylo and the only way to get out of lylo (or mylo) is to lynch today (going by the previous assumption of 2 scum left, which was the basis for my argument). Iece's no lynch road plan actually results in two days where scum could get good luck (with 33% likelyhood on the last day) while lynching today has the potential to result in none. We'd have to lynch scum either today or tomorrow anyway and there is literally no question that lynching today gives us better odds to win.

Dry-fit (my biggest town read)

I believe you have yet to explain why Dry-fit is such a strong town read for you and why you disagree with my case against him. I would greatly appreciate it if you could set your suspicions of me aside for a second and actually talk to me about our disagreements. If not for your benefit, then for my own. Thank you.

[Iecerint]

Also, Toasty asking everyone to post reads before a NL (subsequent to arguing that the towniest player would be nightkilled if we NL) is terribad, one way or the other.

Here you go again saying shit without any actual basis behind it. Why is it bad to post reads? If someone dies then we have stuff to go off of. And its what we should be doing anyway.

If you are concerned that scum will kill the perceived-towniest player, surely everyone ranking the players from towniest to least-townie is the tryhardiest way to make that happen.

[Iecerint]

Meanwhile, all the dead town players were scum reading Xayzeck.

FWIW re: "Iec doesn't explain his reads omg the world is complicated," this was why I voted Xayzeck at the start of the day. A little after I posted that he was obvtown (because he completely was, to the extent that ANYWAY in this game was), I decided to read him again anyway because so many players seemed clueless (so the scum could have actually been clueless), and Xayzeck was where he was pinging yesterday.

[PeregrineV]

Back- catching up today/tonight

[Iecerint]

to the extent that ANYONE*

[Dry-fit]

Your reasoning for wanting to lynch me and your current read on Xazeck, please.

I suspect you because I don't find your scumread on me credible. I understand the apparent inconsistencies you're pointing out but looking at my play overall day one I don't see how you can legitimately come to the conclusion that I'm partners wit Sal. I also feel you were trying to manipulate me to vote for Nacho when you had the chance yesterday. Even though you expressed suspicion of Aronis all game you had no interest in joining me wen I wanted to get an Aronis wagon going. I think you thought Nacho was more of a threat to you and wanted him killed instead.

On the other hand I felt Burn's play looked kind of town while he was here. I also have a tough time seeing how trying to push my lynch is a good way for you to win if you're scum. Although you were pushing for a Nacho lynch before he was modkilled and that was more feasible.

Xayzeck I feel has been making genuine posts. I don't know that I have a lot more to say about his play though. It's not a terribly strong townread.

Iecerint I suspect for pushing for no lynch here. It just seems bad. I also am wary of the fact that he called SC obvious town. I think scum felt he was obvtown, but I sure didn't. And I don't think anyone said that he was in thread either. I think Iec is revealing the real reason scum made the kill.

[Iecerint]

CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

[ToastyToast]

Needless to say, we should mass claim. I'm vanilla town. Order doesn't matter to me. If it indeed turns out that this is an all vanilla set up, I'd consider it a given that we are only looking for one more scum player and there would be even less reason to no lynch, IMO.

I'm also a VT

Gemini Blind didn't have me as a strong scum read. StrangerCoug actually had me in his town block. That's the people who were killed at night. Aronis also didn't have me as a strong scum read. The only player who died wanting me dead was Nacho.

I was referring to burn when I talked about Gemini, I believe. And it doesn't change the fact that Aronis died being one of the few to suspect you. Scum often make kills/lynches that are potentially troublesome for their slots, I don't think this changes that.

Toasty, I don't think your case against me is ill-intended, but it is very misguided. Most of your arguments, as well as your unwillingness to actually engage me on any of our opposed reads indicate to me a deep paranoia that's clouding your judgement:

I don't see a problem with being paranoid in mylo. I operate defensively, and listen to my gut first and foremost, so you aren't really enlightening me on the paranoia bit. It isn't clouding my judgement--its informing it.

The possibility of scum gaining powers is only scary if we are in lylo and the only way to get out of lylo (or mylo) is to lynch today (going by the previous assumption of 2 scum left, which was the basis for my argument). Iece's no lynch road plan actually results in two days where scum could get good luck (with 33% likelyhood on the last day) while lynching today has the potential to result in none. We'd have to lynch scum either today or tomorrow anyway and there is literally no question that lynching today gives us better odds to win.

Fair enough.

I believe you have yet to explain why Dry-fit is such a strong town read for you and why you disagree with my case against him. I would greatly appreciate it if you could set your suspicions of me aside for a second and actually talk to me about our disagreements. If not for your benefit, then for my own. Thank you.

....ok this is a mafia game last I checked I was supposed to push people. Is it a new system to just set that shit aside? I mean the people not providing content in this game may be suggesting so...

1) Regardless of the accuracy or consistency of his reasons, Dry-fit was the biggest proponent of the Salamance wagon. For some reason I get town credit for it, but he doesn't?
2) He has called out multiple people for lazy voting.
3) I find the progression of his read on PV to be very natural/authentic

If you are concerned that scum will kill the perceived-towniest player, surely everyone ranking the players from towniest to least-townie is the tryhardiest way to make that happen.

Scum are going to do that shit regardless. Information is

everything

in mafia, and that outweighs whatever scum may or may not do. Also I'm about 95% positive scum will kill me, and with that in mind I'd like people to listen to what I have to say now and not find reasons to ignore it. Shoving it in their face is the best way to do that, and I would expect other town to feel the same way.

Are you suggesting we all pretend to be scummy as fuck to confuse the scum team into killing themselves?
It would explain your gameplay this game but seems

quite

unlikely.

CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

But StrangerCoug and Nacho are dangerous players with "town rally call" playing styles that get night killed not for their performance but their influence and potential late-game (yes, I know Nacho was mod-killed, but I think scum was going after him for that reason). Also there is no way scum

wasn't

pushing the nacho wagon, and let's not ignore that or think that "oh i'm considering it but my reads aren't changed by it" is a valid reaction.

In other news, where the f is xayzeck?
And peregrine catch up soon, please. This isn't the time for continued passivity.

[Iecerint]

Scum are going to do that shit regardless. Information is

everything

in mafia, and that outweighs whatever scum may or may not do. Also I'm about 95% positive scum will kill me, and with that in mind I'd like people to listen to what I have to say now and not find reasons to ignore it. Shoving it in their face is the best way to do that, and I would expect other town to feel the same way.

You should rush NL if you're going to NL for the same reason that you should rush lynches in assassins in the palace. You are wrong, or you are making up theory (lazily) to fit what you think should happen.

Are you suggesting we all pretend to be scummy as fuck to confuse the scum team into killing themselves?
It would explain your gameplay this game but seems

quite

unlikely.

If you're going to be a patronizing fuck, please don't get the game wrong as you do so. Also, you're not even pretending not to strawman.

CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

But StrangerCoug and Nacho are dangerous players with "town rally call" playing styles that get night killed not for their performance but their influence and potential late-game (yes, I know Nacho was mod-killed, but I think scum was going after him for that reason). Also there is no way scum

wasn't

pushing the nacho wagon, and let's not ignore that or think that "oh i'm considering it but my reads aren't changed by it" is a valid reaction.

1. The Nacho wagon occurred because of CTD's (frankly pretty sound, because Nacho was uncharacteristically lazy this game) case on him. It is disingenuous for you to say OMG SOMEONE --- WHO COULD IT BE --- WAS DEFINITELY SCUM AND PUSHING THE NACHO WAGON HMMMMM.

2. The point of my post was to respond to Dryfit's post, where he claimed that no one ("except for scum lulz") thought StrangerCoug was obvtown; the point was to indicate that he was objectively wrong. I am obviously not making an appeal to authority that the flipped townie was town.

3. lol @ DANGEROUS PLAYERES

[Iecerint]

Like, I understand the instinct to react to people's understanding of the logic of the nightkill as scummy, but StrangerCoug was not a complicated kill at all, and pretending otherwise is just contributing to making the game harder than it needs to be (or it is INTENTIONALLY trying to make the game harder than it needs to be, which is how I read it tbf, but you aren't all scum).

[Iecerint]

Again, for the sake of clarification in case Toasty's narcissism gets in the way again, that is directly (mainly) at Dryfit.

[Iecerint]

I guess I can probably go a step farther and clarify why I had such a strong townread on StrangerCoug, since I think it might provide context. It's not WHY I thought it -- that part was obvious -- but it's relevant to why I had really strong opinions going into D3.

I got the Hide N1. I didn't use it last night because I would not flip with clarification that I had been a Hider (complicating crumbing it and using it as a weak investigation), and my only town read for confirming innocence was StrangerCoug, and I thought he was so obviously going to be kill that he wasn't safe to confirm as town by hiding behind.

I probably might have put more thought into crumbing it (or just claimed it outright, in hindsight), but I was visiting AP on the West Coast during D2, so I wasn't devoting as much time to my games as I might otherwise have. I remember because I remember voting for Aronis just before going to get on the plane to return.