Newbie 1543: Nightmare Mafia (Scum Win)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hmm, I think I want to lynch me previous leading town-read who I've been town-reading all game.

That's awkward.

[Belisarius]

Vote Count 1.19 (I think)

(L-2)

WaffleGhost: (3) Brian Skies, Jagged Appliance, BlueBloodedToffee
Jagged Appliance: (2) serrapaladin, WaffleGhost
BlueBloodedToffee: (2) Thor665, Originalchris

Not Voting: copper223, wgeurts

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2014-10-11 23:30:00)

Mod Notes:
None

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[wgeurts]

VOTE: WaffleGhost
Following Thor will lead nowhere and I'm slightly suspicous that BBT is town. Jagged... I don't know. We need a lynch and if Jaggeds wagon grows I'll join itt.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

One more vote please!

[Brian Skies]

How about intent first?

[Brian Skies]

I'm going to sleep. I look forward to reading responses and such.

[wgeurts]

D1's last too long, I mean, we have litteraly just ran circles for the last week.

[copper223]

@Brian

The statistics you're referencing aren't even absolute, though. They're just relative comparisons that don't have any bearing on this game. I've replaced into three Newbie games before, two were town (one was town doctor) and the other was scum. So no, your first point doesn't indicate a valid scumtell for that slot. The only thing it really indicates is that newbies replace out of their games a lot.

In fact, there are games where a lot of the slots will have replacements regardless of alignment (as shown by the Waffles game you admit to meta-diving later, where two town slots and one scum slot had replacements). We don't know the circumstances of Breshke replacing out so it's not a fair assumption for you to make.

And what about BBT's response to you warrants you wanting to lynch him?

What are you talking about the statistics not being absolute?

I think you guys don't understand how to read stats is the problem here. Again the OC argument, and made worse by citing waffle later. The fact you can mention one game where town replaced out and two where you replaced a doc and two townies has 0 influence on the overall statistics. In fact you have to expect to be replaced in more as town than as mafia because for any given game there are 7 town positions and 2 scum, so there will be more town replacements in general, but the % for every role is what matters. Here we have someone who replaced out, and the stats tell us he is more likely to have been mafia. That is 100 % a valid tell and the only one I have seen this game. Everything you wrote about this is

complete nonsence

, the question is whether it's voluntary.

The fact he replied to the case only by trying to poke holes in it, as if he didn't really care about the alignment of the player but wanted the case to be bad.

This is inherently untrue. I skimmed his posts, but I distinctly remember there being reads.

BS, he gave comments on what the players did he thought looked scummy or townie, with multiple instances of players having done both, those are not reads.

Even if I did meta-read people, why would I bother using it to read a person with a 1-game sample size with no scum-game for comparison? Do you know what Waffles looks like as scum? If not, how can you safely say what he would or would not look like as either alignment?

You would have a point if I said you would be better off reading him compared to anyone else but that's not what I said, I said reading it works wonders if you think he is mimicking newbscum as that is the main accusation against him. When you see how he played in the other game you can discount that accusation, so his case gets much weaker. If you read my posts I actually say he could still be mafia and I said that because not knowing his mafia it may look exactly like his town, but there is 0 chance it is deliberate.

What was so different about the composition of Thor's wagon that you were okay with him being lynched even though you weren't okay with Waffle's wagon composition?

I wanted Thor on L-1 because he would have to claim and give his info on BBT if he had it, the composition of his wagon is irrelevant. The fact you are asking this shows how your objective in this post is to throw scum instead of legitimately asking about things you found scummy. You are trying to force the case for why I am scum with waffle after Thor told you he is my only possible buddy is what I get from this pile of tosh.

@BBT

Hmm, I think I want to lynch me previous leading town-read who I've been town-reading all game.

That's awkward.

How convenient

@Thor

Since you went and looked I see no particular reason to answer this now.
That said - why are you using meta with him and no one else?

Yes I think it's more likely you are town here, but I'm keeping an open mindset while I review and check some metas.

On the contrary I still want your opinion as well. As you can see I already answered, I was not going to use it because it doesn't really put players on a level playing-field, but your accusation of not assessing the player coupled with how important it is to determine if Waffle is faking newbscum made me change my stance and now I'm meta reading everyone. The only extra point I got for now based on this is Serra is slightly more towny.

VOTE: Brian
VOTE: BBT

[copper223]

@Jagged

VOTE: WaffleGhost
Following Thor will lead nowhere and I'm slightly suspicous that BBT is town. Jagged... I don't know. We need a lynch and if Jaggeds wagon grows I'll join itt.

Here's your wg mafia team out of the window.

[copper223]

@Wgeurts
Your vote helped me because it makes at team of you and waffle unlikely, and I thought Jagged might have had a point with his scum-list, but do me a favour and meta read Waffle's game 1530 as well and tell me what you think about it.

[serrapaladin]

I will send cookies to anyone that votes jagged. His waffle case and reads list are along the path of least resistance and lack actual analysis.

[wgeurts]

@Jagged

VOTE: WaffleGhost
Following Thor will lead nowhere and I'm slightly suspicous that BBT is town. Jagged... I don't know. We need a lynch and if Jaggeds wagon grows I'll join itt.

Here's your wg mafia team out of the window.

He had a WG+wg theory?

[wgeurts]

@Wgeurts
Your vote helped me because it makes at team of you and waffle unlikely, and I thought Jagged might have had a point with his scum-list, but do me a favour and meta read Waffle's game 1530 as well and tell me what you think about it.

I could be pulling of a gambit if I were scum and so was WG, don't draw conclusion; say it's likely etc. Could you give a link to it?

[wgeurts]

@Wgeurts
Your vote helped me because it makes at team of you and waffle unlikely, and I thought Jagged might have had a point with his scum-list, but do me a favour and meta read Waffle's game 1530 as well and tell me what you think about it.

Also, we have 1 day.
If we don't lynch someone soon a no lynch will happen. You've found waffle scummy before and he's now a great guy to kill for info as:
A-We're nearly out of time, pushing BBT won't work in 23 hours.
B-If he dies and turns scum I could see a WG-Jag team possibility.
C-If he flips town I'll be suspicious of Thor/BBT/Jag again which will take a lot of meta reading.

[wgeurts]

I will send cookies to anyone that votes jagged. His waffle case and reads list are along the path of least resistance and lack actual analysis.

Get 3-4 votes and I'll join, I want to see one of these people die:
BBT, Jag, Thor, WG.

[copper223]

@WG

I could be pulling of a gambit if I were scum and so was WG, don't draw conclusion

You could, that's why I said

unlikely

and not absolutely impossible 100% guaranteed, still it would be a pretty stupid gambit to try and pull in my book.

He had a WG+wg theory?

The readslist Copper asked for:

Scum --> Waffle, wgeurts, Brian, Thor, Serra, BBT, OC, Copper <-- Town

Link to Waffle's previous game:http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=58670

[wgeurts]

@WG

I could be pulling of a gambit if I were scum and so was WG, don't draw conclusion

You could, that's why I said

unlikely

and not absolutely impossible 100% guaranteed, still it would be a pretty stupid gambit to try and pull in my book.

He had a WG+wg theory?

The readslist Copper asked for:

Scum --> Waffle, wgeurts, Brian, Thor, Serra, BBT, OC, Copper <-- Town

Link to Waffle's previous game:http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=58670

Thanks, I'll do a meta-read later.

[wgeurts]

Well, one things sure. Waffle's playing alot more defensively this game than in that game. He also didn't like bussing and posted reads alot more. Now he's more carefull with his reads and he's fine with a D1 bus. Yeah, I'm happy with my vote copper, he's playing like newbscum compared to that game. Copper, thoughts?

[serrapaladin]

So what I think happened a few days back was that thor wanted to have his scumbuddy jagged claim, but when wg said he'd hammer without a claim, thor got cold feet, since he probably wouldn't win alone with PR's still around.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Thor is probably town though

[copper223]

@Wgeurts
A-We're nearly out of time, pushing BBT won't work in 23 hours.
Why not? If Serra or Waffle don't hammer at L-1 before the deadline I would be shocked and your vote puts him at L-1.
B-If he dies and turns scum I could see a WG-Jag team possibility.
If he turns up scum you should look at me, Serra and Thor. Jagged with Waffle is pretty unlikely since he spent his L-1 post voting for him and would have been on his wagon when he died.
C-If he flips town I'll be suspicious of Thor/BBT/Jag again which will take a lot of meta reading.
If he flips town you should absolutely FOS Brian, Jagged and BBT, in addition the rest of town should re-evaluate you.

Well, one things sure. Waffle's playing alot more defensively this game than in that game. He also didn't like bussing and posted reads alot more. Now he's more carefull with his reads and he's fine with a D1 bus. Yeah, I'm happy with my vote copper, he's playing like newbscum compared to that game. Copper, thoughts?

I will check again for what you said about bussing. I disagree about him being more defensive this game. My thoughts off the bat are you are either wrong as usual or I really missed something.

[copper223]

@Serra

So what I think happened a few days back was that thor wanted to have his scumbuddy jagged claim, but when wg said he'd hammer without a claim, thor got cold feet, since he probably wouldn't win alone with PR's still around.

Would scum Thor be happy about sacking his scum buddy for one PR?

[copper223]

@Wgeurts

He also didn't like bussing

What gave you the impression he likes bussing this time around? I actually used the search function after reading about what he thought of bussing in the other game and he never mentioned bussing in this game at all.

[wgeurts]

@Wgeurts

He also didn't like bussing

What gave you the impression he likes bussing this time around? I actually used the search function after reading about what he thought of bussing in the other game and he never mentioned bussing in this game at all.

He's been alot more on an off wagons this game. He even wanted to finish one a while ago, I'm fine with voting the 4 I've already mentioned so if you can get people against BBT i'll join. Either one of them dying will influence what I do and who I meta next day.

[wgeurts]

Also defensively in my eyes was him saying I don't to post a mess and therefore waist town time by reading me.