Open 573: C9++

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #1375 (ISO) » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:37 pm

Idk how the setup gets randomized but all the roles were in possible role section.
While double kill is possible, it's very unlikely.

MonkeyMan · Post Post #1376 (ISO) » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:43 pm

So you are just spouting non-sense theories without doing any research.

I roleblocked you, this is probably the most obvious thing in the game right now. If you were actually town or did your research you wouldn't automatically assume I was town because there is a scum roleblock that is possible. The only way you could safely assume I was town is if you already knew: 1. there is no scum role block in play or 2. You are the scum roleblock.

I am now confirmed town.

Also, my N1 target was Wrgeurts for anyone who is wondering.

Now, Death Stare needs rope and they need it fast.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #1377 (ISO) » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:48 pm

Not really?
I mean, because I am town, the kill mustve been stopped by some other way. The only possibility is a doctor.
Because I am town and can not perform a nightkill, doctor exists and he saved town from dying. Both are confirmed town.
Because there was no second kill and a mafia died n2, it is safe to assume a vig in play. Vig is a town role. confirmed town.

Also I didnt automatically assumed that you were town as you can see from my post re: coaching.
So by your own word, I am town!

MTD · Post Post #1378 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:09 am

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

MonkeyMan, it is incredible how much nonsense you talk.

MTD · Post Post #1379 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:13 am

Still, I am not

entirely

sold yet.

MTD · Post Post #1380 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:14 am

MONKEY, how do

you

explain the missing kill

s

?

massive · Post Post #1381 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:06 am

Nero

: Why do you think 50 Shades having "no read" on someone is more important than, say, who they were town-reading? Or why? And why are you quoting a reads list from before N1? (It still has TSO in it which is how I know.)

MonkeyMan

: How did you pick Death Stare as the person to roleblock? Most of the day yesterday you were on Davesaz and were disappointed that none of us were following your case. Why pick Death Stare?

davesaz · Post Post #1382 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:31 am

Quick side trip into setup analysis. Not a push for anyone more to claim, just pointing out some things that PRs might find useful in interpreting results.

From the setup in the wiki, it's about even chances we have a vig or a SK. From the presence of a godfather, town has either 2 or 5-7 power roles. There is a decent chance that mafia has a roleblocker, a certainty if town has more than 2 power roles (since 3 and 4 roles are ruled out given a godfather).

If town has any role other than roleblocker, then town has more than 2 power roles and MonkeyMan's claim does not prove he's town because there are both town and scum roleblockers in play.

And now for the more important matter of re-reading and updating analysis. This will take a while...

Death Stare · Post Post #1383 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:38 am

So I looked at the setup page finally.

TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker

Godfather Flip

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

Godfather Flip

TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

More than 2 townies

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

Flipped Townies

0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

[s/]

Flipped Townies

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

Yeah so we have confirmed one mafia left and that vig was probably a serial killer. High chance of mafia crosskilling SK N2. But then where did the N1 kill go?

If MonkeyMan's roleblocker claim is true (it probably is and gets rid of the chance of scum RB claiming RB) that has more than 1 shot, that means there are at least 2 Rs in play, right?

So RRTTTTT (9 VT + Roleblocker vs Goon + Godfather vs Serial Killer) is the only possibility we have if MonkeyMan is a full roleblocker.

MonkeyMan claimed that he blocked wugerts N1, who was a VT. Therefore yeah, crosskill happened both night.

That means the remaining mafia knows who the Serial Killer is. Hue.

Death Stare · Post Post #1384 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:38 am

P-Edit: well I got ninja'd.

Death Stare · Post Post #1385 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:43 am

Wait, but then where did D2 kill go?

Hmm.

I'm willing to be flipped for the sake of people puzzlesolving, but does my townflip condemns MonkeyMan?
SK has only 1 bulletproof and since wugerts was roleblocked N1, that means SK didn't kill or mafia hit a bulletproof SK.

Death Stare · Post Post #1386 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:44 am

In post 1383, Death Stare wrote:So I looked at the setup page finally.

TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker

Godfather Flip

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

Godfather Flip

TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

More than 2 townies

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

Flipped Townies

0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
[s/]

Flipped Townies

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

Yeah so we have confirmed one mafia left and that vig was probably a serial killer. High chance of mafia crosskilling SK N2. But then where did the N1 kill go?

If MonkeyMan's roleblocker claim is true (it probably is and gets rid of the chance of scum RB claiming RB) that has more than 1 shot, that means there are at least 2 Rs in play, right?

So RRTTTTT (9 VT + Roleblocker vs Goon + Godfather vs Serial Killer) is the only possibility we have if MonkeyMan is a full roleblocker.

MonkeyMan claimed that he blocked wugerts N1, who was a VT. Therefore yeah, crosskill happened both night.

That means the remaining mafia knows who the Serial Killer is. Hue.

Well actually
scrap this lol

Death Stare · Post Post #1387 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:46 am

This is why I don't setup spec

sthar8 · Post Post #1388 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:35 am

THEN WHY ARE YOU DOING IT FFS

IT IS NOT TIME FOR CLAIMS YET

THIS IS ALL HORRIFICALLY ANTI-TOWN

Aneninen · Post Post #1389 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:23 am

In post 1328, Nero Cain wrote:I also have a p strong desire to kill Dave today.

There are very strong things against Davesaz.
I'll post about that later if needed, but there is something more important right now. (See below!)

In post 1336, sthar8 wrote:oh also no roleclaims please.

Agreed, with one exception.

If anyone's a Vigilante, please claim it!

By doing so we could rule out the possibility of an SK, plus that would solve a plenty of things detailed below.

In post 1338, sthar8 wrote:Also everybody on the yoggreuts wagon now has NO proficiency cred. That was fucking awful and you should feel bad.

Thanks four pointing that out, Captain Obvious! ^_^
You should have explained how awful that wagon was during Day2.
Before you do so, I'm telling this: you needn't explain who started that wagon, guess what, I can remember that too well.

@Mod or anyone who knows: can a Town Roleblocker block a Nightkill? If not, ignore the spoiler below becuase in that part I assumed that the answer for the previous question is 'yes'.

(Mostly because if the answer is 'no', this role is pretty much bastard, I think.)

Spoiler:

Jingle · Post Post #1390 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:44 am

In post 1389, Aneninen wrote:@Mod or anyone who knows: can a Town Roleblocker block a Nightkill? If not, ignore the spoiler below becuase in that part I assumed that the answer for the previous question is 'yes'.

Yes. A Nightkill is one of the Night Actions a Roleblocker can block.

GIF spends the weekends singing Christmas Carols. Year Round.

sthar8 · Post Post #1391 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:19 am

In post 1389, Aneninen wrote:
Agreed, with one exception.

If anyone's a Vigilante, please claim it!
By doing so we could rule out the possibility of an SK, plus that would solve a plenty of things detailed below.

I'll think about it but I don't think it's helpful right now.

Thanks four pointing that out, Captain Obvious! ^_^
You should have explained how awful that wagon was during Day2.
Before you do so, I'm telling this: you needn't explain who started that wagon, guess what, I can remember that too well.

I was busy with actual caught scum and listening to everyone tell me how stupid and bad at this game I am. Besides, I already told everybody how stupid that was on day1.
[/quote]

MonkeyMan · Post Post #1392 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:22 am

In post 1381, massive wrote:MonkeyMan: How did you pick Death Stare as the person to roleblock? Most of the day yesterday you were on Davesaz and were disappointed that none of us were following your case. Why pick Death Stare?

If you notice I thought Death Stare slipped about knowing I was town D1. I thought my best bet for getting info on them would be to roleblock them.

MonkeyMan · Post Post #1393 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:23 am

In post 1380, MTD wrote:MONKEY, how do
you
explain the missing kill
s
?

N1 I think probably cross kill. Last night I block the mafia kill.

The end.

Jingle · Post Post #1394 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:57 pm

Vote Count 3.1

There was an Old Man of Nantucket
Who kept all his cash in a bucket.
His daughter, called Nan,
Ran away with a man,
And as for the bucket, Nantucket.

MonkeyMan (1):Death Stare
Death Stare (1): MonkeyMan
massive (0):
Nero Cain (0):
sthar8 (0):
davesaz (0):
Heartless (0):
Brian Skies (0):
Aneninen (0):
MTD (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (8): massive, Nero Cain, sthar8, davesaz, Heartless, Brian Skies, Aneninen, MTD

With 10 alive, it is 6 to Lynch or No Lynch.

It is now Day 3. Deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2014-11-05 17:00:00) at 6:00 PM on Wednesday, November 5th Pacific Time.

Brian Skies · Post Post #1395 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:49 pm

Hi. I'm still alive, but I got sidetracked with other obligations. Will catch-up/post tomorrow.

Aneninen · Post Post #1396 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:23 pm

In post 1391, sthar8 wrote:
In post 1389, Aneninen wrote:
Agreed, with one exception.

If anyone's a Vigilante, please claim it!
By doing so we could rule out the possibility of an SK, plus that would solve a plenty of things detailed below.
I'll think about it but I don't think it's helpful right now.

One more thing.
We assumed on Day2 that TSO had been killed by the Mafia. As far as I know, noone gave a possible explanation

why

he had been killed. (Or at least, I was unable to do so and as far as I can remember noone posted anything useful about this topic.) What if that was an SK Nightkill and the Mafia kill was stopped somehow? Knowing that we have a Vig would make easier for us to read the game. You might be right, Sthar, claiming being an "unlimited Vig" may be disastreous, but if the Vig is 1-Shot, we get a confirmed townie who has no additional power anymore.
Let's discuss!

(I'm speculating on this question because if I were a Vig, I would have shot 50Shades for sure! So, that shot might have come from a Vig too. I'll give an explanation for this if needed.)

In post 1391, sthar8 wrote:

Thanks four pointing that out, Captain Obvious! ^_^
You should have explained how awful that wagon was during Day2.
Before you do so, I'm telling this: you needn't explain who started that wagon, guess what, I can remember that too well.

I was busy with actual caught scum and listening to everyone tell me how stupid and bad at this game I am. Besides, I already told everybody how stupid that was on day1.

Your wagon was lead by a scum and I pointed out that the whole "he's lurking/V-LA-ing intentionally" thing is pigeon poop. I was ignored and right now I strongly think it happened because Mollie had kept explaining how idiotic my gameplay had been.

MTD · Post Post #1397 (ISO) » Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:51 am

Hm so I don't know right now...
both explanations given so far don't make

that

much sense IMO.
I think the most probable thing is that either N1 or N2 an SK's bulletproof was popped.

davesaz · Post Post #1398 (ISO) » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:00 am

Taking speculation one step further, I'd be willing to bet that N1 the SK's bulletproof was popped, and N2 the SK killed while the mafia was blocked.
This might just finger the SK by the pattern alone. It certainly gives me an idea of where to check.

massive · Post Post #1399 (ISO) » Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:19 am

In post 1398, davesaz wrote:Taking speculation one step further, I'd be willing to bet that N1 the SK's bulletproof was popped, and N2 the SK killed while the mafia was blocked.
This might just finger the SK by the pattern alone. It certainly gives me an idea of where to check.

So ... why aren't you voting for Death Stare then?