Open 573: C9++

[Heartless]

We assumed on Day2 that TSO had been killed by the Mafia. As far as I know, noone gave a possible explanation why he had been killed.

There hasn't been and I feel like that's a big missing puzzle piece. He was scumreading Nero Cain at the end of the day, but he had scumreads on both 50 Shades and sthar that he sort of went back on right before the day ended. It doesn't make sense as a mafia kill, there were a lot more vocal detractors of 50 Shades, most notably sthar and Nero Cain.

Then there's the number of kills. There's a 2/3 chance a Serial Killer is in play.

I just deleted the rest of the paragraph I typed out because I just realized sthar was right and this is a not a very pro-town endeavor. The only thing is that there's really no way of evaluating the reliability of MonkeyMan's action

without

doing so.

Ignoring the claimed roleblock seems foolish, though.

-TTH

[massive]

Yeah, and while I don't necessarily agree with MonkeyMan's belief that Death Stare "scumslipped" back on D1, it doesn't matter whether *I* believe it or not when it comes to evaluating MonkeyMan's claimed targets.

[davesaz]

Did MonkeyMan claim a N1 target? If not, I'd recommend waiting for a while.

As to voting, I was kinda hoping to see more discussion first. I'm worried that we could be misled by a plausible but untrue claim, or that we could misinterpret the claim results. Plus if we have other power roles (that's far from certain, but possible) I don't want a quick wagon that gives them nothing to steer their next actions.

[Heartless]

Did MonkeyMan claim a N1 target? If not, I'd recommend waiting for a while.

He did. It was wgeurts.

-TTH

[sthar8]

There hasn't been and I feel like that's a big missing puzzle piece. He was scumreading Nero Cain at the end of the day, but he had scumreads on both 50 Shades and sthar that he sort of went back on right before the day ended.

i assumed it was because he was obtown/ we have a great track record of reading each other. he was never gonna be a viable lynch and while he was alive neither was i.

[sthar8]

but thats p biased

[MonkeyMan]

50 shades makes no sense for a vig kill imo.

Also, if there is anything any of yall need me to explain let me know. I want this scum lynch. Using my PRs well validates my existence.

[Nero Cain]

Well obviously PGO isn't in the game so him fake claiming PGO looks like a vig/sk claim. So I think he did kill 50 and you are obviously lying about blocking him.

[Nero Cain]

but if Monkey is scum and is basically fakeclaiming then that would be pretty much suicide me thinks unless he has a scumbuddy left so I'm of the mind to lynch not Monkey/DS today.

[sthar8]

50 shades makes no sense for a vig kill imo.

unless we have a vig with a brain.

[Nero Cain]

like Massive is still scummy 'cause that early d2 claim is still not town and he's not doing much hunting at all.

You know that thing that I said about Mollie being scum 'cause town Mollie doesn't town read me? Yea, skies is guilty of the same thing and I had a very early gut scum read on Foxx.

don't like Dave's hard defense of 50.

and I still think sthar is p scummy and that back and forth with Mollie could have been a show so between those 4 is where I want to go today.

[massive]

vote Nero

There, now I'm hunting. I can't believe you even went back to that when no one believed you yesterday.

[Aneninen]

We assumed on Day2 that TSO had been killed by the Mafia. As far as I know, noone gave a possible explanation why he had been killed.

There hasn't been and I feel like that's a big missing puzzle piece. He was scumreading Nero Cain at the end of the day, but he had scumreads on both 50 Shades and sthar that he sort of went back on right before the day ended. It doesn't make sense as a mafia kill, there were a lot more vocal detractors of 50 Shades, most notably sthar and Nero Cain.
Then there's the number of kills. There's a 2/3 chance a Serial Killer is in play.

I'm thinking the same. Nightkilling TSO didn't make sense as a Mafia Kill. But, it didn't make sense as a Vig kill either.
I also wondered what he had meant in his bah post (1076). I don't think I'll find it out.

I just deleted the rest of the paragraph I typed out because I just realized sthar was right and this is a not a very pro-town endeavor. The only thing is that there's really no way of evaluating the reliability of MonkeyMan's action

without

doing so.
Ignoring the claimed roleblock seems foolish, though.
-TTH

MonkeyMan's claim must be real – I've explained it before. If so, we should discuss about his posts. In my opinion, ignoring a (most likely) confirmed town's ideas would be much more anti-town. Prove me if I'm wrong – this part goes to everyone, especially to Sthar!

but thats p biased

I don't understand this post.

50 shades makes no sense for a vig kill imo.
Also, if there is anything any of yall need me to explain let me know. I want this scum lynch. Using my PRs well validates my existence.

50Shades made perfect sense for a Vig Kill. Look at those votes on Day2, between 1317 and 1320! After Wgeurts's flip I was sure that at least one of those players is scum and my bet was 50Shades whom I had started to scumread before. If I were Vig I would have Nightkilled them.
My questions are:
(1) Where did DeathStare slip about you on Day1?
(2) Why did you choose DeathStare for your Roleblock? Why not Davesaz or Massive, for example?

[Nero Cain]

I can't believe you even went back to that when no one believed you yesterday.

They don't believe me? So you are claiming that you didn't early claim?

I *think* you meant they don't agree with me. So fucking what? Me not getting traction on your wagon doesn't necessarily meant that I'm wrong.
Remember that time I called Mollie scum 'cause she wasn't playing to her usual self, no one believed me then and it flipped scum.

[MonkeyMan]

This game lacks nacho whiteknighting the living hell out of monkeyman

Whiteknighting is when scum defends town.

Also, with Nero saying I am scum he is scum now too. This post actually looks like a buss to me. Might be me thinking everyone who doesn't believe me is scum because I don't believe people are inherently dumb.

[Nero Cain]

but Monkey...50 didn't kill herself. If DS shot her then you didn't block him. Of course if DS isn't vig/sk then you aren't lying. So what, DS is mafia, was getting bussed d1 by 50 and then fake claims the kill on her?

[Nero Cain]

hrmmm...i mean that is some what plausible, fake claims the kill so he draws out the killer CC. hrmmm....

[MonkeyMan]

Where does DS claim to kill 50?

[davesaz]

After reading the day's events more slowly, I think it's solved. The SK is pretty clear to me too, but now is not the time to go into that since we can lynch only one.

VOTE: Death Stare

[davesaz]

N1, mafia attempts to kill SK and triggers bulletproof. SK kills TSO
N2, monkey blocks mafia, SK kills 50

[Jingle]

Vote Count 3.2

A bather whose clothing was strewed
By winds that left her quite nude
Saw a man come along
And unless we are wrong
You expected this line to be lewd.

Death Stare (2): MonkeyMan, davesaz
MonkeyMan (1):Death Stare
Nero Cain (1): massive
massive (0):
sthar8 (0):
davesaz (0):
Heartless (0):
Brian Skies (0):
Aneninen (0):
MTD (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (8): , Nero Cain, sthar8, , Heartless, Brian Skies, Aneninen, MTD

With 10 alive, it is 6 to Lynch or No Lynch.

It is now Day 3. Deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2014-11-05 17:00:00) at 6:00 PM on Wednesday, November 5th Pacific Time.

[sthar8]

I don't understand this post.

my logic regarding the nightkill assumes that mollie's play was centered around what she knows of me. It is fairly heavily biased in that I am assuming that I was a primary motivator for scum.

We are not discussing claims further. I will not be explaining why. We can discuss the theory behind that in post if you like, but for now the exceedingly high probability that I am town combined with the logic of "don't give info to scum" should suffice.

I need to do some setup math, so I'm not willing to end the day yet. But I'm pretty sure my vote will be going to death stare.

[davesaz]

Exceedingly high probability? That's a slip. Townies don't say they are high probability, they say they are town.
Trying to find a role you could claim that would fit the setup?

[sthar8]

Exceedingly high probability? That's a slip. Townies don't say they are high probability, they say they are town.
Trying to find a role you could claim that would fit the setup?

I'm saying that from Anen's perspective, he should be about 95% sure that I'm town. Obviously he can't be 100% sure.

Try to keep up.

Or, you could continue to tell me about my own diction and how it reflects my state of mind. You

clearly

have the experience and proficiency to do that. It

definitely

doesn't make you look like more of an idiot than your pointlessly anti-town role speculation.

As to my role, I've not really been hiding what I'm gonna claim. It should be pretty obvious to anybody paying attention.

[Jingle]

Prodding Death Stare.