Newbie 1546: Binary Trolls (Game Over!)

[Netherspite]

I'm usually posting my case later during the day because I want to gather as much info as I can to build the case and to be sure that I'm voting the right person.
You however made it more quick than it takes usually because your behavior confirms my case a lot.

Regarding the speedlynch concern... There is a wagon at L-2 at this moment. Do you think that posting a case, say, 2 days before the deadline would switch the wagon to you so fast? I doubt so. So, again, why are you so concerned about it?

Well, anyway.
Lets imagine you're townie.
Lets try to find the scum together then? Share your thoughts finally. As you can see, we are not going to get lurkers speaking long enough before the deadline. So there won't be enough time to build a wagon on any of them.
Do you townread everyone who is not lurking? Do you think that it's possible to build a wagon on some random lurker to avoid a mislynch? Do you think it is a good idea?

[Shiro]

I am not concerned about it but I digress.
I will bite

Yes I townread the active folks par null on toon his first post was ok but nothing to make me think obvtown.

Depends on how willing people are to vote a lurker. Although Carli has turned into a lurker and she will probably replace in which is a huge red flag for me.

Is it a good idea depends as well If Carli come up and starts talking reason I would prefer a lurker lynch. I said my stance on her is on trial till she speaks. The fact that she isn't speaking is bad.

Really though. You don't think there is scum between the lurkers ? 2/2 newbie games I have been there was scum in lurkers. To add to that I find Lexie saying he will post then not doing so and vanishing for 4 days suspicious.

VDA claim of herp derp I forgot this games existance even more so but he said he will post on monday so benefit of the doubt till monday comes.

[Voidedmafia]

Vote Count

Carli (3): Luca Blight, Dyslexicon, Toolenduso
Netherspite (0):
Toolenduso (1): Lolbabe
Lolbabe (0):
Shiro (1): Netherspite
Dyslexicon (0):
Luca Blight (0):
VictorDeAngelo (0):
GuyInFreezer (0):

Not Voting (4): Carli, VictorDeAngelo, Shiro, GuyInFreezer

It is day 1. With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day ends on Wednesday, October 29 at 11:30pm EST. Countdown: (expired on 2014-10-29 23:30:00).

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[Voidedmafia]

Dsylexicon has been prodded.

[Netherspite]

@Shiro

In fact, I think that there is a scum among lurkers.
However, it's hard to find out who of them is the scum because they're not posting.
So I'd rather go with my top suspect among posting players than with some random lurker who most likely will be townie (just because it's simply high probability, since there are so many lurkers and only 1-2 of them are scum).
I prefer making a decision based on information rather than randomly.

[Shiro]

I prefer making a decision based on info as well which is why I said Carli is best target unless she talks some reason. Which doesn't seem like she is planning to do

[Netherspite]

Carli is my second suspect after you. So I'll definitely join the policy lynch in case we won't make another decision till deadline.

[toolenduso]

I want to do some more research and analysis on this game today but one little thing I want to start with is that I definitely don't see Nether and Shiro as partners. I've seen two out of three scum go after each other like this but they tended to be experienced and usually had day chat. Iirc newbies don't usually give day chat to scum.

[Shiro]

I want to do some more research and analysis on this game today but one little thing I want to start with is that I definitely don't see Nether and Shiro as partners. I've seen two out of three scum go after each other like this but they tended to be experienced and usually had day chat. Iirc newbies don't usually give day chat to scum.

The analysis ?

[Netherspite]

I wonder why some people join the game they ain't interested to play.

[Shiro]

I wonder why some people join the game they ain't interested to play.

ikr ?

[Luca Blight]

Nether's point around Shiro seems to be mainly centred around a lack of scumhunting. The only question I would have here is why is Shiro a bigger scumread than Carli, who has also not done any scumhunting, but has also appeared scummy for other reasons noted earlier, and has dropped out of the game since being pressured?

[Netherspite]

Well, as I said, I came to the opinion that lurking is usually just a null tell. Both town and scum can go lurk at different moments of the game regardless of its state.
I'd really like to see Carli coming back and posting something to answer to the pressure put on her. But until she does so I'd rather wait with my conclusions on her.
Shiro didn't lurk and I really don't like his/her response to the little pressure I put on him/her.
In other words, Carli is "pending" in slight scumread state for me until she posts some more while Shiro is already determined as more strong scumread.

[Luca Blight]

I don't like the fact Shiro isn't voting for her scumread because the IC had 'townvibes' from one of her posts, which in itself was based on the notion of being 'too scummy to be scum', hardly the strongest of cases. This type of behavior doesn't make sense to me, when there is no clear indication of GIF's alignment this stage; the only ones who know his alignment for sure of course are mafia. It seems as though Carli is heading towards a policy lynch at any rate, so it would make more sense for mafia to stay off the wagon so as not to incriminate themselves down the line, if Carli is town. It is cautious play, no doubt.

The fact Shiro said she would for for Victor (who she admitted is nothing but a null read) over her main scumread in Carli based on one post by the IC is a red flag. Yes there could well be mafia amongst the lurkers, but there is simply no way of knowing, and to randomly vote someone out of the lurkers is akin to flipping a coin to decide lynches. Very weak reasoning.

I would be willing to consider switching to Shiro based on this.

[Shiro]

Is everyone missing the fact I said

I am choosing to trust GiF words until she speaks

Not speaking means she will probably get my vote.
Also
The question was:

If you were to vote right now, who would you vote?

Not who would I lynch if we had to lynch right now.

[Voidedmafia]

Lolbabe has been prodded.

[toolenduso]

I wonder why some people join the game they ain't interested to play.

ikr ?

Assuming this is directed at me given the timing -- just because I didn't post exactly when I said I was going to doesn't mean I'm not interested in the game.

Also,

If you were to vote right now, who would you vote?

It's tool, not toon. I only bring this up because it's useful sometimes to go back and ctrl + f a person's ISO for mentions of another player.

I'm working on a post now.

[Shiro]

I wonder why some people join the game they ain't interested to play.

ikr ?

Assuming this is directed at me given the timing -- just because I didn't post exactly when I said I was going to doesn't mean I'm not interested in the game.

Also,

If you were to vote right now, who would you vote?

It's tool, not toon. I only bring this up because it's useful sometimes to go back and ctrl + f a person's ISO for mentions of another player.

I'm working on a post now.

It wasnt directed at you tbh xD

and sorry for name thing my bad

[toolenduso]

OK so I looked at two Shiro newbie games: 1532 and 1533. She was scum in both. In 1532 she replaced in later in the game, in 1533 she started from the beginning. For that reason I won't use 1532 as a comparison.

I find some similarities between Shiro in this game and scumShiro in Newbie 1533 that could be more than just playstyle traits. One is this:

No, not necessarily. You neglect the possibility that Csareo might have something against this particular IC.

How can he dislike IC yet be glad one is onboard ? If he was glad an IC was here he wouldn't dislike them. And he was specific to say that voting him had nothing to do with his disdain with IC meaning it was a general felling toward them IC.

He disdain IC yet he is glad one is onboard. It is pretty contradictionary imo

@GiF

How is he throwing it away ? Isn't it better to state it right away instead of when cornered about it ?

When cornered it is far more likely that people will shrug it as BS to escape. If pre stated he can re-direct to here if brought up and none can say anything cause he said so way before the matter arised.

I don't really see it as scummy since it can be townie that doesnt want to be mled cause of it or mafia taking precautions for playstyle, I just don't get how it counts throwing the defence away. It seems more as have the defence premade just in case.

Both of the above quotes are replies to other people talking about specific actions by another player. They both criticize the argument in the form of questions and they both serve to undermine the person's read by guessing at the player's intentions ("If he was glad an IC was here he wouldn't dislike them"/"When cornered it is far more likely that people will shrug it as BS to escape").

More importantly, they both address players that Shiro had no interest in voting. In the quote from 1533, she was criticizing Csareo but never voted him (not in D1 anyway). In the quote from this game she was criticizing GiF's reasoning on Nether and has shown no interest in voting either -- in fact, she's trusting enough of GiF to not vote for Carli because GiF has a townread on Carli.

Scum motivation behind this playstyle would be subtly undermining town players' reads without strongly committing to either side of the argument/chasing any of the players involved and thus putting herself in the spotlight.

Lest anybody take this the wrong way, I don't see this as damning evidence. Since Shiro doesn't have any completed town games we can't compare her townplay to this for a better meta analysis and we thus can't rule out the possibility that this is just something Shiro always does.

Another similarity between scumShiro and Shiro in this game: hesitation to vote/taking a long time to vote.

Another similarity between 1533 and this game: Shiro's belief in policy-lynching lurkers.

A dissimilarity: I can't find any D1 examples in 1533 of Shiro acting defensive like she has in this game. I haven't read in-depth though so I could be wrong about this.

So ultimately the meta comparison does a little bit to confirm my suspicion of Shiro, but it's not enough for me to vote her right now.

I plan on doing Carli next. I'm pretty sure she only has one other completed game, but she's my strongest scumread so I want to see what's there.

[Netherspite]

Hmm, this meta analysis feels weak for me to be honest, it does add up a bit to the suspicion though.

Regarding the dissimilarity, he/she started playing defensively only because I started to push him/her.
I'll read up the 1533 a bit to see if that was the case there.

[Netherspite]

Well, as it seems, Shiro was never under suspicion during D1 in 1533.
And when someone asked him/her any question looking even remotely like leading to the suspection towards him/her, he/she rushed into detailed explanations just like he/she did in this game.

This is still not a complete evidence until there is a game where he/she was townie and played differently.

[Shiro]

*sigh*

I do not vote a lot that is true no matter aligience. I know vote is supposed to be laid down and what not but eh I wll get used to that with time.

I do believe in policy lynching lurker to some extend yes. Is that good play ? Eh I dunno I guess it kinda dumb since lurkers can be town but I dislike them.

And well I tend to defend myself when pointed out. I tend to answer all question directed at me with details. How is that a scum tell is beyond me.

[GuyInFreezer]

@GiF with IC hat Please tell me. Is it optimal to wait for deadline in order to present your case on someone ?

No.
What you never want to do is waiting on lynch/cases until the deadline approaches.
The lynches rushed because of the deadline are ineffective because it mostly hits town and the wagon analysis doesn't help.

[Netherspite]

It's not a scum tell by itself but if you tend to only answer questions and never scumhunt yourself, it's not very townie.

[GuyInFreezer]

Oh btw since apparently mod is absent and I only PM'd the mod,

I am on V/LA until 28th