Open 573: C9++

[Jingle]

Vote Count 3.5

It's clear from your vacant expressions
The lights are not all on upstairs
But we're talking kings and successions
Even you can't be caught unawares

Death Stare (5): MonkeyMan, davesaz, Aneninen, Heartless, sthar8
Nero Cain (1): massive
MonkeyMan (0):
massive (0):
sthar8 (0):
davesaz (0):
Heartless (0):
Brian Skies (0):
Aneninen (0):
MTD (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (8): Nero Cain, Brian Skies, MTD, Death Stare

With 10 alive, it is 6 to Lynch or No Lynch.

It is now Day 3. Deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2014-11-05 17:00:00) at 6:00 PM on Wednesday, November 5th Pacific Time.

[Nero Cain]

vig needs to claim ASAP

[Aneninen]

UNVOTE:

I have no time to explain it right now, but I'm thinking about something. There may be a way to sort out whether DeathStare's version make sense. I know that I'm not the smartest player here but what if I can figure out something useful out of my thoughts?

After all, we have more than 7 Days, we needn't hurry. For those who are concerned about my unvote, I can still re-vote them later. Just give me some time, please. Despite of the busy days I have (and I have had) I'll try to post my idea as soon as I can.

[Aneninen]

Okay, here's the idea.

We know for sure that there are 0–2 Ts or 5–6 Ts and we should assume that MonkeyMan is telling the truth, so he's Town RoleBlocker. (So, 7 Ts is not possible.)

If we don't lynch DeathStare Today, they will be more or less sorted out by Tomorrow.

MonkeyMan should block them again and the Doc should protect MonkeyMan

. The scums don't know whether there is a Doc so it's best to Nightkill someone else. But, even if they Nightkill MonkeyMan, the Block has priority over the Kill (as far as I know) so, it will be successful.

The plan forks Next Day according to the amount of Nightkills.

At this point (Tomorrow) the Vig should claim (if we have one) to make the things clear.

For the following part let's assume that we have no Vig.

If there are two Kills, there must be an SK, that means 1 or 5 Ts. An R is known, so let's hope that someone can claim something with some useful data – and as a side-effect we can see whether the PR-s are going over 2 letters or not. (Eg. A Cop is possible only if the setup roll contained at least CC. Outing a 1-shot Doc doesn't hurt much but also clears the question. A single Mason-claim can do the trick too. I bet you can find another examples. ) If that happens, the setup is T, and the Mafia consists of 3 players. DeathStare is not cleared though, but if we proceed a massclaim (in this situation, I mean, only if we're sure about the setup) we'll have a lot of confirmed townies and maybe good investigation results too (especially on DeathStare – having eg. a Cop read on him may prevent the massclaim too). If no such thing happens, the setup is RxTTTTT and the Mafia consists of 2 players. In this case, DeathStare is town for sure.

If there's one Kill, DeathStare is most probably scum and the SK performed the Nightkill. In this case, the Mafia must consist of 2 players (with 3 players someone else would do the Nightkill) and the setup is RxTTTTT. There are other possibilities though, if there's one Nightkill. For example, (1) the Doc protected one of the targets, (2) the Mafia and the SK targetted the same person, (3) the Mafia shot the SK who's 1-shot Bulletproof. (There may be other possibilities too but I can't think of them now. Feel free to add them.)
By following this plan, (1) would be possible only if there's at least DD here. This would be impossible, because in this case there would be 3 Mafia and DeathStare wouldn't shoot at all. So, (1) is out. (2) has a certain chance, but with 9 players alive (after Today's lynch) it's not that big. (3) is a weak point of this plan, but, as far as I remember, some of you posted before that it might have happened on Day1 (? – am I right about this?). So, in case of one Kill, our best bet is that DeathStare is the remaining scum. (No SK is not a possibility in this section since we assumed that there is no Vig and it has zero chance that the Mafia killed its own Godfather.)

Zero Kill is very unlikely. In that case DeathStare is almost surely scum and the SK shot is blocked by a Doc. (Are there any other possibilities?)

Now, let's assume that we have a Vig

(either a 1-shot or an unlimited one). In this case an SK is very unlikely (there are too many missing Kills). The setup is 0T or 2Ts, 6T would be impossible with 2 town PRs. Because of the 3-player Mafia team, DeathStare can't be sorted out but, we can still hope that there's a Cop between the PRs, or by a massclaim we're going to have enought confirmed townies to break the game before reaching a LyLo. (So, having a Vig makes the things MUCH easier!!!)

As a side effect, by following this plan, MonkeyMan needn't guess whom to block and this is important, especially if the setup is 0T or 2Ts. (It would be terrible if he blocked eg. the Doc by coincidence...)

And of course, if we lynch scum Today, the things will be waaaaaaaaaay easier. ^_^

Please, discuss! Even if my whole idea is bullshyt, please explain me why!

[Heartless]

I finally have time to look over this game.

-TTH

[Heartless]

The setup speculation makes my head hurt.
At this point, I'm thinking that continuing this setup math speculation intelligently would require outing more PRs, which I think is unnecessary right now. I'd rather not show our hand yet.

If we don't finish the scumteam here, SK prob dies tonight, which is good.

I will say that I follow this logic.

-TTH

[Heartless]

And of course, if we lynch scum Today, the things will be waaaaaaaaaay easier. ^_^

Mathematically, Death Stare is far and away more likely to be mafia than not. A quick look at davesaz's last post will tell you why.

-TTH

[MTD]

Uhm, I don't see it i think.

[MTD]

Too many silent people.

The

only

way there can be missing kills, without MonkeyMan's roleblock having hit scum, is additional town PRs. And if there is even one more, there

must

be

at least

three to give us a total of at least 5. The only setups with a godfather are 0-2 T's (5+ power roles) and 5-7 T's. (0-2 power roles)

Isn't there still the possibility that the RB claim was false?
Also you are ignoring the possibility of crosskills.
Also don't forget the potential SK-bulletproof.

[Death Stare]

Too many silent people.

The

only

way there can be missing kills, without MonkeyMan's roleblock having hit scum, is additional town PRs. And if there is even one more, there

must

be

at least

three to give us a total of at least 5. The only setups with a godfather are 0-2 T's (5+ power roles) and 5-7 T's. (0-2 power roles)

Isn't there still the possibility that the RB claim was false?
Also you are ignoring the possibility of crosskills.
Also don't forget the potential SK-bulletproof.

Faking that as town is VI play and being a mafia roleblocker means that this is a very risky gambit for a pretty small payoff.

-Ank

[MTD]

Too many silent people.

The

only

way there can be missing kills, without MonkeyMan's roleblock having hit scum, is additional town PRs. And if there is even one more, there

must

be

at least

three to give us a total of at least 5. The only setups with a godfather are 0-2 T's (5+ power roles) and 5-7 T's. (0-2 power roles)

Isn't there still the possibility that the RB claim was false?
Also you are ignoring the possibility of crosskills.
Also don't forget the potential SK-bulletproof.

Faking that as town is VI play and being a mafia roleblocker means that this is a very risky gambit for a pretty small payoff.

-Ank

I meant him being mafia (not roleblocker) and fakeclaiming RB.
That opens up the possibility of just a single additional Doctor (e.g.)

[Aneninen]

If we don't finish the scumteam here, SK prob dies tonight, which is good.

Why do you think so?

Final read
Scum: {dave, Heartless}
If there's a SK, it's Nero.

Can you tell me more about your Heartless and Nero reads?

The setup speculation makes my head hurt.
At this point, I'm thinking that continuing this setup math speculation intelligently would require outing more PRs, which I think is unnecessary right now. I'd rather not show our hand yet.

If you meant me, you must have misunderstood my latest post. I only posted an idea how DeathStare could be sorted without a lynch. It would include claims only next Day at earliest and apart from a Vig, only in certain situations.
If you meant someone else, I agree.

Isn't there still the possibility that the RB claim was false?

I don't think so and I've already explained why.

________

OFF.
Oh Finally! From now on we have got a cat! ♥ Purr! ♥

[MonkeyMan]

Okay, here's the idea.

We know for sure that there are 0–2 Ts or 5–6 Ts and we should assume that MonkeyMan is telling the truth, so he's Town RoleBlocker. (So, 7 Ts is not possible.)

If we don't lynch DeathStare Today, they will be more or less sorted out by Tomorrow.

MonkeyMan should block them again and the Doc should protect MonkeyMan

. The scums don't know whether there is a Doc so it's best to Nightkill someone else. But, even if they Nightkill MonkeyMan, the Block has priority over the Kill (as far as I know) so, it will be successful.

The plan forks Next Day according to the amount of Nightkills.

At this point (Tomorrow) the Vig should claim (if we have one) to make the things clear.

For the following part let's assume that we have no Vig.

If there are two Kills, there must be an SK, that means 1 or 5 Ts. An R is known, so let's hope that someone can claim something with some useful data – and as a side-effect we can see whether the PR-s are going over 2 letters or not. (Eg. A Cop is possible only if the setup roll contained at least CC. Outing a 1-shot Doc doesn't hurt much but also clears the question. A single Mason-claim can do the trick too. I bet you can find another examples. ) If that happens, the setup is T, and the Mafia consists of 3 players. DeathStare is not cleared though, but if we proceed a massclaim (in this situation, I mean, only if we're sure about the setup) we'll have a lot of confirmed townies and maybe good investigation results too (especially on DeathStare – having eg. a Cop read on him may prevent the massclaim too). If no such thing happens, the setup is RxTTTTT and the Mafia consists of 2 players. In this case, DeathStare is town for sure.

If there's one Kill, DeathStare is most probably scum and the SK performed the Nightkill. In this case, the Mafia must consist of 2 players (with 3 players someone else would do the Nightkill) and the setup is RxTTTTT. There are other possibilities though, if there's one Nightkill. For example, (1) the Doc protected one of the targets, (2) the Mafia and the SK targetted the same person, (3) the Mafia shot the SK who's 1-shot Bulletproof. (There may be other possibilities too but I can't think of them now. Feel free to add them.)
By following this plan, (1) would be possible only if there's at least DD here. This would be impossible, because in this case there would be 3 Mafia and DeathStare wouldn't shoot at all. So, (1) is out. (2) has a certain chance, but with 9 players alive (after Today's lynch) it's not that big. (3) is a weak point of this plan, but, as far as I remember, some of you posted before that it might have happened on Day1 (? – am I right about this?). So, in case of one Kill, our best bet is that DeathStare is the remaining scum. (No SK is not a possibility in this section since we assumed that there is no Vig and it has zero chance that the Mafia killed its own Godfather.)

Zero Kill is very unlikely. In that case DeathStare is almost surely scum and the SK shot is blocked by a Doc. (Are there any other possibilities?)

Now, let's assume that we have a Vig

(either a 1-shot or an unlimited one). In this case an SK is very unlikely (there are too many missing Kills). The setup is 0T or 2Ts, 6T would be impossible with 2 town PRs. Because of the 3-player Mafia team, DeathStare can't be sorted out but, we can still hope that there's a Cop between the PRs, or by a massclaim we're going to have enought confirmed townies to break the game before reaching a LyLo. (So, having a Vig makes the things MUCH easier!!!)

As a side effect, by following this plan, MonkeyMan needn't guess whom to block and this is important, especially if the setup is 0T or 2Ts. (It would be terrible if he blocked eg. the Doc by coincidence...)

And of course, if we lynch scum Today, the things will be waaaaaaaaaay easier. ^_^

Please, discuss! Even if my whole idea is bullshyt, please explain me why!

I don't agree with this post. No you can't know why. I just don't agree with it. Half of it didn't even make sense.

[MTD]

I don't think so and I've already explained why.

Yeah, your reasoning was that there must be a blocker cause DS was the first to talk about blocking, right?
That's nonsense, as at that point that was pretty obvious from Monkey's posts that he either really did that block or was going to claim it.

[Aneninen]

@MonkeyMan. I can see that you disagree with my idea. I can believe that you have reasons for not explaining, why. In this case you must understand that I can't discuss it with you. However, can you answer this: besides DeathStare, who do you think the scum is / the scums are?

Yeah, your reasoning was that there must be a blocker cause DS was the first to talk about blocking, right?
That's nonsense, as at that point that was pretty obvious from Monkey's posts that he either really did that block or was going to claim it.

I think you gave an answer for a different thing.
I strongly think that MonkeyMan's claim is real – regardless of DeathStare's alignment – because, if it weren't, he would perform a terrible gameplay. If he were scum, he would have risked too much for too little gain.

However, you told me that it had been obvious for you that MonkeyMan would claim Roleblocker before DeathStare had mentioned that possibility. That means, my strongest reason against DeathStare has just been refuted by you.
Correct me if I'm wrong in this post.

[MTD]

(4) MonkeyMan's gameplay would have too made perfect sense if he were a Cop. (Or, as a weak case though, it would have been also possible if were a VT.) It was you who mentioned that you had been roleblocked way before MonkeyMan claimed. Before this answer I thought that you knew about the roleblock because you have a town-PR but you haven't even tried to crumb or softclaim this possibility (that'swhy I've been waiting with my vote 'till now). Therefore, you must be the scum who performed the (blocked) Nightkill.

You mean this?
Yeah I think so, because this:

Monkeyman is scum.

Discuss.

-Ank

Care to explain the missing kill?

Kinda made the RB/planned RB-claim obvious.

I am saying right now, that I think you guys are ignoring far too many possibilities for me to conclusively think that DS is scum.
Like, all of you just ignore the SK (which IMO is pretty obvious we have) in about half of your posts.
Also, who said the Vig has to claim but the Doctor doesn't? That doesn't really make sense to me atmo.

Also, if we didn't have all that setup stuff, Monkey looks like obvious scum to me, so I am confused.

[massive]

At this point, I'm thinking that continuing this setup math speculation intelligently would require outing more PRs, which I think is unnecessary right now.

Mathematically, Death Stare is far and away more likely to be mafia than not. A quick look at davesaz's last post will tell you why.

I have no idea how these two go together logically.

[davesaz]

Too many silent people.

The

only

way there can be missing kills, without MonkeyMan's roleblock having hit scum, is additional town PRs. And if there is even one more, there

must

be

at least

three to give us a total of at least 5. The only setups with a godfather are 0-2 T's (5+ power roles) and 5-7 T's. (0-2 power roles)

Isn't there still the possibility that the RB claim was false?
Also you are ignoring the possibility of crosskills.
Also don't forget the potential SK-bulletproof.

I bolded things and underlined for a reason. It is anti-town to fully explain the reason.

[sthar8]

Why do you think so?

Because in this situation the SK is clearly and obviously the biggest threat to the mafia win condition, and if they tried to kill it and popped the BP, they know who it is. The scum player would have to be actually terrible at this game to not kill the SK.

You can't talk your way out of being chosen for a nightkill, and the SK doesn't care about reads on you. No matter your fakeclaim, it doesn't stop the kill. If scum have a roleblocker they want to be using it to prevent their own kill from being blocked rather than just keeping the SK locked down.

It is far and away the highest EV for scum.

[davesaz]

Are you trying to argue for a no-lynch, let the scum kill the SK, and then come back to lynch the scum? What if the scum decide to leave the SK for later? That just gets 2 townies killed, unless the SK gets lucky enough to kill scum again. That seems to be a higher percentage play for scum because it gets them to wincon faster, though I'm not spending a lot of time thinking about the math on this right now.

[sthar8]

are you even reading my posts?

[sthar8]

Also that's the highest risk play for both the SK and the scum.

[davesaz]

If we lynch scum, then the remaining mafia (if any) can't RB and kill the same night.

[davesaz]

Now if you're saying don't lynch the SK because the Mafia will take care of it for us, sure that's helpful but doesn't affect the decision today unless someone can verify MonkeyMan's block didn't hit scum.

[Heartless]

Too many silent people.

The

only

way there can be missing kills, without MonkeyMan's roleblock having hit scum, is additional town PRs. And if there is even one more, there

must

be

at least

three to give us a total of at least 5. The only setups with a godfather are 0-2 T's (5+ power roles) and 5-7 T's. (0-2 power roles)

Isn't there still the possibility that the RB claim was false?
Also you are ignoring the possibility of crosskills.
Also don't forget the potential SK-bulletproof.

I bolded things and underlined for a reason. It is anti-town to fully explain the reason.

...it really isn't rocket science, mtd. what's the hang-up here?