NY 177: Simple Complexity (GAME OVER: Scum Wins!)

[House]

You do realize there are roles that become NK-bait or completely worthless once claimed, yes?

[reinoe]

You do realize there are roles that become NK-bait or completely worthless once claimed, yes?

Possibly and those players will probably lie but town generally tell the truth or at least choose roles that make sense. Scum generally have much more incentive to lie because they'll have roles that won't make sense with the setup for townies to have access to. Basically the claims will be like a puzzle and townies will have roles that fit the puzzle. Scum will have pieces of the puzzle that don't make sense.

This happened in NY 176. Scum should have lost that game based on the claims but town was...less than efficient at claim analysis because all the metagame players were killed.

[House]

You do realize there are roles that become NK-bait or completely worthless once claimed, yes?

Possibly and those players will probably lie but town generally tell the truth or at least choose roles that make sense. Scum generally have much more incentive to lie because they'll have roles that won't make sense with the setup for townies to have access to. Basically the claims will be like a puzzle and townies will have roles that fit the puzzle. Scum will have pieces of the puzzle that don't make sense.

I've been mulling this offer, and your post makes no sense.

So, a townie with a PR that is detrimental if outed will likely lie.

Scum will likely lie.

So if town senses a fishy claim, they will suspect scum and run that player up, forcing them to claim their PR, effectively undermining their efforts.

Seems fifty shades of shitty. I'm against mass claim.

[House]

Offer should have been "over".

[reinoe]

You do realize there are roles that become NK-bait or completely worthless once claimed, yes?

Possibly and those players will probably lie but town generally tell the truth or at least choose roles that make sense. Scum generally have much more incentive to lie because they'll have roles that won't make sense with the setup for townies to have access to. Basically the claims will be like a puzzle and townies will have roles that fit the puzzle. Scum will have pieces of the puzzle that don't make sense.

I've been mulling this offer, and your post makes no sense.

So, a townie with a PR that is detrimental if outed will likely lie.

Scum will likely lie.

So if town senses a fishy claim, they will suspect scum and run that player up, forcing them to claim their PR, effectively undermining their efforts.

Seems fifty shades of shitty. I'm against mass claim.

Hey that's cool. Like I highlighted in my example, mass claims near end of game can directly lead to a town win if the pieces are put together. But it's a town decision after all. Although I'd like to hear from other players too.

[House]

If town decides to massclaim, I will too... but I'm not a fan.

[Pine]

at the less than subtle implication of Godfather.

Actually, it's not an implication that you are. I rather think you're Town. I'd initially typed that as "unless he's scum, in which case good job" (or however I phrased it), then realized that if you're scum playing well enough that I don't suspect you at all, it's doubly impressive that you managed to bait the cop inno and set the game on easy mode.

[Pine]

I have never been a fan of massclaim. It's really only a solid choice in open, theme, or where there's a known gimmick. Here, the easy thing for scum would be to just claim VT. Their only risk is if there's a Watcher or Tracker that's been quiet and got lucky

[Skybird]

As reinoe pointed out, even with a mass claim we still have to put the puzzle pieces together correctly. Speaking only for myself, I've never been in a game with a mass claim and don't know if I can figure it out.

[Psyche]

i

do

still want to be replaced

[Wake1]

Vote Count 6.2

House (0):

Marquis (1):

Skybird

Pine (1):

reinoe

Psyche (3):

Pine, House, Shaddowez

reinoe (0):

Shaddowez (1):

Marquis

Skybird (0):

Not Voting (1):

Psyche

~ With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch!
~ Deadline expires 11/09/14, @2PM Central.
~ Long-overdue VC. Running out of rainbow abstract pictures.

OP | Game Rules | Day Start
1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.19
Aegor's Lynch & Flip
Elyse and T S O's Murders & Flips
2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4
Aeronaut's Lynch & Flip
Texcat and Josh_B's Murders & Flips
3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9
tn5421's Lynch & Flip
Titus's Murder & Flip
4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3
OkaPoka's Lynch & Flip
Majiffy and Mirhawk's Murders & Flips
5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.5
PeregrineV's Lynch & Flip
Gameplay506 and notsciences' Murders & Flips
6.1 | 6.2 | 6.3

[reinoe]

i

do

still want to be replaced

Have you sent out pm's to players sking them to replace your slot?

[Psyche]

that's discussing ongoing games

[shaddowez]

I've never been involved in a mass claim, but am willing to do so if we decide to.

I've also been re-reading, and while I'm not completely convinced that Psyche and Marquis are both town, I think I actually have a stronger scum read than either of them right now. I'm going to sheep reinoe for now, and will post reasons why shortly:

VOTE: Pine

[House]

I'm going to sheep reinoe for now, and will post reasons why shortly

This should be interesting. Pine had been town as fuck.

[Skybird]

Psyche, who do you feel is scum?

House, when you look at Pine's slot and all the posts from the people that have been in the game, do you still feel Pine is town? I was null-scum on zMuffinMan.

[reinoe]

I'm going to sheep reinoe for now, and will post reasons why shortly

This should be interesting. Pine had been town as fuck.

Meh on "town as fuck" commentary.

Not including the "not masons", there's a 33% chance he's SK.

[House]

Psyche, who do you feel is scum?

House, when you look at Pine's slot and all the posts from the people that have been in the game, do you still feel Pine is town? I was null-scum on zMuffinMan.

I didn't do a boat load of archive diving. Some here and there, but I didn't cover everybody

My read of Pine is based on Pine.

[House]

im pretty obvtown though

so was farside!

There we have it. Pine is town.

Spoiler:

Yes, I'm trolling.

[Marquis]

so here's what i'm thinking about the gamestate. we most likely have:

4 town / 2 mafia / 1 sk

and I think the town is

Marquis
reinoe
Psyche
Pine/House

with the remaining two,

Skybird
shaddowez

as PoE'd scum.

With PV's townflip, if shaddowez and I are both town, that means we started with 2 four-person all town neighborhoods, which once again I'm finding hard to believe the NRG would approve.

I just... don't see a reason why shaddow is getting by right now. Nobody seems to have a townread of any sort on him, yet they're content to ignore him and lynch out of other, more risky options.

Again... why? Why is everyone just ignoring the neighborhood deal now? Why is everyone ignoring the prospect of a shaddowez wagon (including shaddowez himself, as if he doesn't want to draw too much attention to it) when unlike with the rest of the players in this game it feels like literally nobody has a strong townread on him (pretty sure everyone else is being strongly townread by at least one person)?

[House]

You make some good points (I think?), but just wanted to point out that shadow has been in my town pile for a while.

Idk a ton of theory, I'm just going by his posts. Seems legit, to me.

[Marquis]

I don't understand why you have him as town.

I'm not trying to be a dick about your reads (though with your read earlier on me I do want to), I just legitimately do not understand. I don't see anything in his play that's distinctly town, and when combined with setup factors...

[House]

Back when I replaced in, he seemed townier than pretty much everybody else & became my barometer while I caught up.

Granted, I've been coasting a bit lately due to work. I need to pay more attention to what has been going on. Kinda hard to get invested in a game that has been drowning in apathy since before I joined, but I'll get on it.

[Psyche]

a really interesting effect i read about is that
when people rate people as a liar/truthteller/not sure
the "not sure" choices predict liars better than the "liar" choices

but i'm nit sure how to apply that without being so selfconscious about it that the effect is ruined

[reinoe]

TBH I kinda wanna no-lynch just to let the scum kill each other. I'm also a little uncomfortable with anyone buddying me considering how wrong I've been all game.

UNVOTE: