Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

[Green Crayons]

I'm pretty sure NL is actually detrimental to town, unless if it somehow gets us an extra flip?

[acryon]

It does get us an extra flip. If we lynch every night, we go from 8 on Day 4, to 6 on Day 5, to 4 on Day 6, and then we lose if we mislynch. Alternatively, we can NL tonight to go to 7 on Day 5, to 5 on Day 6, to 3 on Day 7, and then we lose if we mislynch. Basically, we get one NL to use between now and Day 6 to give us an extra day.

[Titus]

Acryon NL strategically should be used at mylo. Not before. Force scums to give info.

[Titus]

I hope I'm not the only one uncomfortable with putting the weight of this game on the VCA of one person, especially a person who kept her vote on a confirmed town long after it was clear that no scum would ever fake-claim in that spot. VCA is great, but even at its greatest, it is far from infallible, and for you to think otherwise is foolish.

Waaaaah...discredit.


I have always said my clears are infalliable. For instance, Revolution. Had 2 scum in 3 players...picked the townie as scum. It had happened. My conf clears are never wrong. Once the guy I thought was scum got out of his own way, we swept flawlessly.

[acryon]

Acryon NL strategically should be used at mylo. Not before. Force scums to give info.

It should usually, but I think we are far enough off at this point from an acceptable lynch that it seems worth considering.

[Titus]

We have an acceptable lynch in CKD as the largest wagon.

[acryon]

We have an acceptable lynch in CKD as the largest wagon.

We have different definitions of acceptable. I understand the majority lynch rule in this game, but I wouldn't call lynching a person with only 3 votes "acceptable".

[Green Crayons]

Oh lol that's right, I don't need to switch votes to avoid no lynch.

[Green Crayons]

I would prefer to no lynch closer to LYLO.

[acryon]

I would also prefer to no-lynch closer to LyLo, but this wagon on CKD is terrible. GC - what do you think of the fact that CKD voted for neither of the scum?

[acryon]

I think it is FAR more likely that scum were on at least one of the wagons, so I think literally any lynch would be better than a CKD lynch.

[farside22]

23hours left. It's either going to be GC or CKD today. The people whom have their votes parked in other slots should move.

Well this is a bit delusional.


I'll switch to CDB if necessary, but I'd prefer a farside. CKD only as a last resort to avoid a no lynch.

Why does amy get a pass for just sheeping your read?
You realize there is literally little to no interaction between her and scramble?

Why is cbd a scum read?

[Green Crayons]

@farside:

Oh man please continue just making stuff up about me.

I'm not giving Amy a pass. I have repeatedly stated that Amy is still part of the lynch pool. I just don't think that she's the lynch for today, because I think that there are more likely scum candidates still alive.

I said as much in these posts:

Green Crayons

, why farside over Amy?

Briefly, because I don't have the time to make a thorough case:

- Looking over Amy's interaction with scrambles' slot, she doesn't really come across as a scum partner. I think Blonde's softball questions to her are iffy, but that doesn't necessarily reflect suspicion on Amy as it can easily be chalked up to Blonde just trying to look engaged. Amy's sudden break of communication with the slot as soon as scrambles replaced in is weird, but goes further to show that it was Blonde that was pushing for a connection with Amy, rather than the other way around. Thus, out of Amy v. farside, Amy looks good.

- I really don't like Beli's hard push against farside out of the gate. If that's all there was to the situation, then whatever, fine. But it was a hard push against someone attacking his scummate Blonde, on what farside hadn't exactly claimed was a basis to lynch Blonde, just a basis for an early D1 vote. It's just a very weird situation, and one that doesn't sit comfortably with me.

- Even recognizing the fact that farside has had IRL issues, farside has used a lot of her activity simply being "catchup" posts. These look active, but they're not necessarily big on engagement -- it's much easier to look productive without gaining much suspicion by commenting on something that has already passed out of the thread's collective consciousness. I have seen scum use this tactic in recent games that I have played.

- farside is also just difficult to read for me, which makes me inherently suspicious of her play.

I'm looking at Amy, farside, and CKD because of process of elimination. acryon is the only possible substitute into that group, but I just don't see it with how he played with scrambles.

I want to come back to this. I think POE helps us out a lot -- almost to the point of winning us the game, but not quite.

We have eight living players: acryon, farside22, curiouskarmadog, titus, ChannelDelibird , riddleton, Green Crayons, Amy Farrah Fowler

....

Four of these are not easily categorized as town.

....

Amy:

(1) Has basically become a minimal presence since D1.

Thinking about it more, I'm more inclined to think acryon is scum than Amy. Although it's hard to think that acryon-scum hard defended scrambles-scum, and that scrambles-scum jumped on the same Titus vote as acryon-scum, it's not entirely incredible. CKD hard defended Beli-scum, and he's not dead, so there's a template for that kind of play getting a pass in this game. Also, scrambles-scum could have been attempting to distance himself from acryon by essentially doing the exact opposite and shadowing acryon's vote (yes, WIFOM, just simply explaining

why

the play doesn't clear acryon).

My preference in lynching is probably farside --> CKD --> acryon --> Amy, but I'm not sure about the CKD / acryon order.

-----

By my count, town has three lynches to go. That means if the suspect pool is correct (farside, CKD, acryon, Amy), we have a 75% chance to hit scum based on numbers alone. We have the win if either the doc either saves a NK or the doc is in the suspect pool. (Not asking for a claim atm, obv.)

-----

As for why CDB, because I have a lingering suspicion about his play from yesterday, because of the acryon/CDB interaction earlier today, and because of the point made at the end of CKD's Post 1933.

[Green Crayons]

@acryon:

I would also prefer to no-lynch closer to LyLo, but this wagon on CKD is terrible. GC - what do you think of the fact that CKD voted for neither of the scum?

I think the fact that CKD did not vote either scum, standing alone, ultimately cuts against being town because otherwise you have to assume scum will bus at least one of their partners.

However (and I have mentioned this before), I think CKD's particular play with respect to scrambles -- in that CKD was apparently trying to assess the correctness of a scrambles vote, just hours before the deadline, when CKD knew that he did not need to actually vote scrambles in order for the scrambles vote to go through -- looks town and nullifies the scum points for failing to vote-to-lynch a scum, and actually gives him town points.

[ChannelDelibird]

No Lynch? Seriously? No. We need to narrow down candidates or it's not going to get any easier to decide on a lynch. The more flips we get, the more light we can shed on everything that came before.

I've only skimmed over the last couple of pages as I catch up from stuff but I'm pretty much of the opinion that we should be able to reach a consensus candidate based on everyone's reads at this point.

CKD and Amy remain the only two players for whom I am willing to vote Today.

[acryon]

@acryon:

I would also prefer to no-lynch closer to LyLo, but this wagon on CKD is terrible. GC - what do you think of the fact that CKD voted for neither of the scum?

I think the fact that CKD did not vote either scum, standing alone, ultimately cuts against being town because otherwise you have to assume scum will bus at least one of their partners.

I think that is a perfectly reasonable assumption, at least given the way this game has been playing. I find it

very

hard to believe that scum-CKD would abstain from either of his partners' wagons, as well as essentially hard-defend his partner D1. I've already said this, but doing these things does nothing but make him look bad, and the chance that someone would make the argument I'm making and get people to believe it is much much lower than the chance that he gets lynched for not hanging either of his buddies.

[acryon]

I don't want to NL, but I also don't want to lynch CKD or GC. These are the two worst lynches we could possibly make.

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: CKD
VOTE: Amy

[Green Crayons]

@acryon:

I would also prefer to no-lynch closer to LyLo, but this wagon on CKD is terrible. GC - what do you think of the fact that CKD voted for neither of the scum?

I think the fact that CKD did not vote either scum, standing alone, ultimately cuts against being town because otherwise you have to assume scum will bus at least one of their partners.

I think that is a perfectly reasonable assumption, at least given the way this game has been playing. I find it

very

hard to believe that scum-CKD would abstain from either of his partners' wagons, as well as essentially hard-defend his partner D1. I've already said this, but doing these things does nothing but make him look bad, and the chance that someone would make the argument I'm making and get people to believe it is much much lower than the chance that he gets lynched for not hanging either of his buddies.

If you are saying that the specific circumstances of how CKD went about not voting scum in this game undercuts the typical suspicion that results from failing to vote scum, then I agree with you.

That is why I have listed him last among those players I would vote for who already have a vote on them.

[Green Crayons]

By the by, town should NL at least once if it gets us down to 3 person LYLO instead of 4 person LYLO.

[curiouskarmadog]

CKD only as a last resort to

avoid a no lynch

.

this again?

[curiouskarmadog]

well I could vote amy or farside at this point, to save myself.

I am not sold that either are scum, and if they flip town I am back in the position I am in today AND that much closer to lylo...

I think scum wants me to get to lylo. i really do. it will be a slam dunk win then.

keeping vote on CDB.

[ChannelDelibird]

I think scum wants me to get to lylo. i really do. it will be a slam dunk win then.

keeping vote on CDB.

Sure, that must have been why I tried to get you lynched Today while also making it clear that I want you and Amy to be the next to die in no particular order, leaving precisely none of you at LyLo. I've switched to Amy because people who I think are town like acryon and GC are insistent on thinking that you are town so your wagon seems less likely to go through at the moment.

[curiouskarmadog]

given the climate around my "scumminess".

would it be ideal for CDBscum to keep me around till lylo?

[curiouskarmadog]

I've switched to Amy because

people who I think are town like acryon and GC are insistent on thinking that you are town so your wagon seems less likely to go through

at the moment.

also way to fucking paint a picture buddy.

acryon is dead tonight, and GC is on the fence about me.....soooo lets say I DO get to lylo....and lets say those last 3 people are....hmmm...you, GC and myself...

or you, riddleton, and myself?

or you, titus, and myself?


who the fuck is getting the rope?

dont pretend like what I am saying IS NOT ANYTHING BUT THE TRUTH!