Open 573: C9++

[Jingle]

Vote Count 4.2

After downing the third I went out to the yard
Where I bumped into Brody, the big civic guard
Come here to me boy, don't you know I'm the law?
Well, I up with me fist and I shattered his jaw

massive (2): Nero Cain, Heartless
Nero Cain (1): massive
MonkeyMan (0):
sthar8 (0):
davesaz (0):
Heartless (0):
Brian Skies (0):
Aneninen (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (8): MonkeyMan, sthar8, Brian Skies, Aneninen, davesaz,

With 8 Alive, it is 5 to Lynch or No Lynch.

It is now Day 4. Deadline is in (expired on 2014-11-15 21:00:00) at 10:00 PM on Saturday, November 15th Pacific Time.

[Jingle]

Prodding Brian Skies.

[massive]

Currently trying to figure out the following: Knowing that it's either 5T or 6T, could a mafia davesaz figure out if he could safely claim one-shot RB?

5T2B : Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer, Roleblocker + 1-Shot Roleblocker
6T1B : Goon + Godfather, Roleblocker

We know that Mafia didn't kill 50 Shades, so there's either an SK or a vig. Is there a configuration that allows for a vig and davesaz's 1-shot RB? Not with this number of claimed townies AND the flipped Godfather (would require 2T1V so at most 4T).

5T1V1B : Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer, Roleblocker, 1-Shot Vigilante
... seems like the 1-shot vig would have claimed, if only for clarity's sake, or to counterclaim dave, ESPECIALLY if their shot's been used

5T1B1? : Knowing that it's probably 5T with no vig, could you safely claim 1-shot roleblock if the question mark is C or D? (1M would be confirmed by mod.) I think you run the risk of being counterclaimed AND that you probably don't want to risk outing a 1-shot cop with an innocent, which would not only get you lynched but put two confirmed townies into the mix. (Although, at this point with the GF dead, it really just makes it harder for the SK to win, which I guess scum would be OK with, ha.)

----

Ultimately I came to the same conclusion sthar and Anen did.

I also probably need a re-read. I'm not above saying some of my Nero case could be confbias.

[Nero Cain]

though I don't know whether it is important or not. I was voting for you on Day1 for a long time but Nero never joined me on your wagon. Maybe he's the SK and he thought that it had been indeed a Chainsaw but he had been unwilling to get rid of the mafia too quickly...?

Considering that my vote was on 50 at the time this is absolutely crap logic.

[Nero Cain]

Monkey, who did you block n1?

[davesaz]

I believe he said it was wgeurts.

[Nero Cain]

So Dave, why aren't you voting Massive?

[Nero Cain]

sthar8
Brian Skies
Massive
^
two of those three are scum

[davesaz]

I'm seeing 2 conftown and 6 potential suspects. Need to do a lot of reading.

[Nero Cain]

so you have no town reads?!?

[MonkeyMan]

It was wrgeurts N1.

I have done horrible with my blocks this game.

[sthar8]

VOTE: massive

will also do brian

Talk to me or I'm voting you.

Why do you have Nero as town? I have a doubt there.

@ everyone- I'd like to see suspect pools from all of you. I currently have heartless and Anen as town, leaving me with {brian, massive, nero} as my lynch pool. TellTaleHero's silence is making me paranoid though, they might switch spots with nero.

@goon- I'm gonna guess you no-killed to avoid getting caught by the blocker. This is

catastrophically

bad play. Given that you know who the SK is, or at least the SK has reason to believe you do, it is now that person's top priority to find and kill you since you can stop them from winning at any point. If either scum faction is to win at this point, they

need

to eliminate the other first. Note that Monkey,

the only person

who can stop you from using your roles is

still alive

. That means that the serial killer is mafia hunting. Leading a lynch on the serial killer will also not work, because you will have to expose yourself to do so. If you want a chance at winning this game, stop hoping the town will do your job for you and nut up.

[Aneninen]

Yes the killing comment was about Nero. His chainsaw comment could have been to be certain you didnt miss it. If nero is mafia and the 50 vote was a planned action, he would have pointed the chainsaw finger at the first person to critisize his naked vote.

That is possible. However, Nero doesn't know my gameplay so, it may have been a coincidence that it was I who "jumped on" the Chainsaw topic.

@Heartless. Care to explain your vote and your case against Brian if you have one?

though I don't know whether it is important or not. I was voting for you on Day1 for a long time but Nero never joined me on your wagon. Maybe he's the SK and he thought that it had been indeed a Chainsaw but he had been unwilling to get rid of the mafia too quickly...?

Considering that my vote was on 50 at the time this is absolutely crap logic.

You're partly right. I forgot to check that you had been voting for 50Shades at that time. However, you voted for Massive next and you never voted for Davesaz. You're right in another thing: it isn't more likely that you're an SK than that you're a mafia. In the latter case you knew that there hadn't been a Chainsaw... on the other hand, you could have pushed the Davesaz-wagon and after his flip you might have earned some town-credit for the Godfather. Also, see below!

It was wrgeurts N1.
I have done horrible with my blocks this game.

Not really. Wgeurts was a logical choice. So was Davesaz, I too had been scumreading him before he claimed. It was a lucky block, I think, because we have two conf-towns now. Had you chosen someone else, we'd have too suspects now (the two blocked players), and that would have exactly been what one of the scums would have gone for by not Nightkilling. (In other words: we'd be stuck in a WIFOM now.)

@Sthar. I don't understand why you talked to a scum in your last post.
As for my reads, it's a bit hard: the one whom I scumread before is a conf-town in my eyes now.

The Day3 wagon is a null-tell, I think, but the Day2 lynch might give us ideas.
I'm thinking the following: all the scums must have been happy about the Wgeurts-wagon (which was lead by an idiot: me, lol). The most probable verison is that one of the mafias was away from that wagon while the other one was on it (50Shades), and the SK could have been on it too.
So, let's see the names on the wagon (apart from me):

davesaz

(conf-town in my eyes), Heartless,

MonkeyMan

(conf-town in my eyes),

MTD

(dead, flipped VT),

50Shades

(dead, flipped mafia GF), BrianSkies. Knowing that 50Shades was mafia, it would have been idiotic from BrianSkies to jump on the wagon as scum – but it would have made sense as an SK! I think if Heartless were a mafia, 50Shades would have kept away from the Wgeurts-wagon. They might be SK, but it's not too likely. However, there was a sudden drop in the amount of their posts after Day2. I'm not sure whether it's a tell or not.

Those who weren't there: Nero, Sthar, Massive,

DeathStare

(dead, flipped VT). So, the scum could be amongst those three players.
I still don't think Sthar is scum.
So, most probably either Nero or Massive is mafia. I used to think that Massive looked much scummier than Nero but I don't know what to think now. As soon as I have some time for it I'll check the ISO of both of them. And yes, I must admit this mafia-pool is partly a PoE.

As for BrianSkies, it's not only the Day2 wagon. He has produced very little content and what if he's actively lurking? Okay, he's just been prodded but, after his latest post here he wrote plenty of posts in another game (which is over now). Sthar, you had a long fight with his predecessor, GrayFox on Day1. What do you think about it now?

[Jingle]

So you guys know the scene in beerfest where they drink out of a boot? I just did that with hard liquor. I didn'teven know that they seriously made boot glasses, but my bartender is fucking awesome. And I'm really fucked up right now. I'll get to modding or whatever tomorrow.

[TellTaleHeart]

Talk to me or I'm voting you.

@Heartless. Care to explain your vote and your case against Brian if you have one?

I asked Anti about that last night and he told me Process of Elimination. At first blush, I

might

agree since I've been townreading Nero Cain and Anenien for a while. Combine that with the recently acquired sthar townread and we're left with only Brian Skies and massive. I can't help but feel like there's something we're missing, though. I also don't know if my sthar read is entirely rational or if it's a product of my guilty feelings post-mollie-flip.

I'm going to be spending a couple hours later this morning getting a better working theory because I feel like Anti thinks this is in the bag (and that's why he's slacked off ). Unfortunately, I don't share this optimism. While there are 2 confirmed town, I'm confused by the numerous missing kills which still seem to not have any apparent explanation. A good theory needs to have those accounted for.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Talk to me or I'm voting you.

@Heartless. Care to explain your vote and your case against Brian if you have one?

I asked Anti about that last night and he told me Process of Elimination. At first blush, I

might

agree since I've been townreading Nero Cain and Anenien for a while. Combine that with the recently acquired sthar townread and we're left with only Brian Skies and massive. I can't help but feel like there's something we're missing, though. I also don't know if my sthar read is entirely rational or if it's a product of my guilty feelings post-mollie-flip.

I'm going to be spending a couple hours later this morning getting a better working theory because I feel like Anti thinks this is in the bag (and that's why he's slacked off ). Unfortunately, I don't share this optimism. While there are 2 confirmed town, I'm confused by the numerous missing kills which still seem to not have any apparent explanation. A good theory needs to have those accounted for.

-TTH

Wrong account. Sorry about that.

-TTH

[Nero Cain]

Anen....in your "Nero is scum 'cause he didn't vote Dave" there is a REALLY big whole. But by that same logic when Massive flips scum then you'd be scum right?

[Heartless]

I'm going off the assumption that there's a Serial Killer and one remaining Mafia because the only way that falls apart is if there's a Vigilante (one-shot or otherwise) that didn't claim.
(There's also the chance that davesaz is fakeclaiming and nightkilled 50 Shades on Night 2 to give the appearance of a second kill. I don't even know if that's allowed or not. It's an elegant explanation for why there's only been one night kill every night but it's

extremely

far fetched so I'll leave that theory alone. If true, that would be a very interesting strategy, though.)

I'm not sure what's involved with hunting Serial Killers since associations are no good, I guess that's something for Anti. I'm convinced that the remaining mafia can be found from 50 Shade's activity, I'm just not really sure where to look but I'll give it a shot.

In post 311 the position on Anenien can be summarized as "I can see how he's scummy but he's not actually scum." There's a couple plausible explanations for this: 1) she's saying this because Anenien, as town, is expecting her to say this given the special knowledge she has about him from the recently finished game or 2) she's trying to defend her scumbuddy without resorting to a full, head-on defense. I can't reasonably eliminate one right now, but keeping Nacho's later response to Antihero's case on Anen in mind, I'm having some second thoughts about my Anenien read.

-TTH

[massive]

(There's also the chance that davesaz is fakeclaiming and nightkilled 50 Shades on Night 2 to give the appearance of a second kill. I don't even know if that's allowed or not. It's an elegant explanation for why there's only been one night kill every night but it's extremely far fetched so I'll leave that theory alone. If true, that would be a very interesting strategy, though.)

If that was the case, then there would have been no kill last night when Monkeyman blocked davesaz.

[Heartless]

massive, that is correct, my error. That would have been a really cool trick. :p

As for the missing kills there are only a few possibilities: the SK and mafia killed the same person, the mafia shot at a bulletproof SK, and/or one of them intentionally no-killed. Since it seems like there's an infinite combination of possibilities for what happened, I'll have to take this aspect last.

At this point, I kind of want to re-strategize and stop thinking about individual 50 Shades posts and start thinking about pirate mollie and Nachomamma's overall strategy. Here's the overall gist of what they were doing. Their main thrusts, MTD and Death Stare, both turned out to be town. I'm inclined to think that this means they treated their partner in the opposite manner: by defending and/or townreading them.

I'm reading post 881 and repeatedly turning it over in my head. mollie and Antihero's dynamic in this game was dysfunctional at best. It feels like the notable times their reads seemed to converge were at incorrect targets: MTD and davesaz come to mind. It poisons the GreyFoxx (now Brian) push about halfway through Day 1, and it makes me wonder if the

only

scumread of Anti's they went out of their way to actively sabotage was actually good.

-TTH

[Heartless]

I haven't gotten to Day 2 with the massive wagon and I haven't gotten to the SK yet.

There aren't enough hours in the day.

-TTH

[Aneninen]

Anen....in your "Nero is scum 'cause he didn't vote Dave" there is a REALLY big whole. But by that same logic when Massive flips scum then you'd be scum right?

I thought it was obvious that I was only speculating and partly PoE. Even if there were only one day left or so, I'd have at least two better ideas for voting.

In post 311 the position on Anenien can be summarized as "I can see how he's scummy but he's not actually scum."

I understand your thoughts and I think I can give you a possible explanation for that. Sorry to say, but I fell for Mollie's trick. In a nutshell the following happened. Mollie wanted me to "tilt", she hoped that I would change my usual play-style for something else I'm unfamiliar with. (That worked, unfortunately. I felt my gameplay so terrible at that time that I even posted in other games too how bad my gameplay is. Eg. Mini1602 is over, I think I wrote some bullshyt there too.) What was the point of it? Even if she mislynched me at LyLo in my first Newbie, she KNOWS that I literally solved the game on Day3 and collected every single evidence on Day4. I strongly think that she wanted to "change my gameplay" because of that and discredit me, like "Aneninen is an idiot who should be ignored". If you check Day2, you'll find examples where I asked questions from 50Shades and they simply evaded to give a proper answer or they gave no answer at all. (...and as that Day passed they looked scummier and scummier in my eyes and I started to think that it was only them who wanted me to feel bad about my gameplay.)
And yes, I know it's all speculation again. Eg. why didn't the scums simply nightkill me? Did 50Shades want to LyLo with me later because I'll be called an idiot by that time by everyone alive? We'd know more about 50Shades's interaction if they had got lynched, not nightkilled.

________

@Everyone
I think we've made a serious mistake.

Day3 was pretty much a null on everyone. We were only dealing with DeathStare or the MonkeyMan–DeathStare interaction. Correct me if I'm wrong but the only one who doubted MonkeyMan's claim for a long while was MTD. I suggested another option for sorting out DeathStare but it was pretty much turned down.

Day1 is a big question mark. I'd been thinking a lot about that Day – why hadn't we been able to achieve a lynch? – but I failed to find the answer. Maybe I'm too dumb to do so, maybe not. I know that I can rarely find out too many things out of the Day1 posts. (Davesaz would have been an exception but it has just turned out to be a mis-read.)

So, I think the most valuable part of the game is Day2 – and we've just forgotten about it, I think, because of MonkeyMan's claim on Day3. We should examine the wagons, the interactions, the votes of that Day.
As a start, I'm telling you something surprising about that Day. After Wgeurts's flip I thought that I would have a couple of votes on Day3 since it was me who pushed his wagon the hardest. And there was not a single FoS on me because of that. Why?

[Jingle]

Replacing Brian Skies.

[davesaz]

Wow, those crickets are deafening.

For my part, I'm working through stuff. Very active at work the past couple of days. Kinda hoping to see an active replacement.

[MonkeyMan]

I concur. I need to reread.