Open 575: Friends & Enemies-Together At Last (OVER)

[Mathdino]

*raises hand*
I thought I knew the mason team and I was right

[borkjerfkin]

a brief thing that occurs to me is why not_mafia slot is dead considering it did literally nothing but I don't know where to go with that

[Mathdino]

Mafia prob didn't want a new voice in the game, just in case. NM's slot was unpredictable. Unpredictability is bad.

[borkjerfkin]

I suppose

[acryon]

*raises hand*
I thought I knew the mason team and I was right

I know, you were one of the perceptive ones. I was not, neither were Newbie and (I think) wgeurts.

[borkjerfkin]

Anyway I want to reread all the slots from a fresh perspective to make sure I'm not utterly getting snowed by like you or something

I do want to hear from Constantine / Riddleton - at least one of them is town.

[Mathdino]

Open up this ISO of the two of them. I find it notable that they have ZERO interaction up until isolattion #42, where I had to literally ask Silver what she thought of Wisdom. Spoiler: She approves of him. Hell, even Wisdom is troubled by this (isolation #63). Note that I've pretty much been townreading Wisdom the whole game; if he's scum, he's only pointing out Silver because a wagon could easily form against her from my case while keeping me as a buddy.

So why then, does Silver decide to vote Wisdom instead of the dude who made a crap case against her? Answer: She recognises that Wisdom is bussing her and goes along with it because A. Wisdom is more likely than me to get lynched, and B. She wants towncred for going after scum (she got it from you, Newbie). Now, you may say that Silver just found Wisdom scummier, but everything that was said about Wisdom applies to me as well. Read the post. She didn't mention his votepost like everyone else did.

Not many other singular posts apply, I highly recommend just reading the ISO yourself and coming to a conclusion. How me-who-thinks-Wisdom-is-scum interprets it: Wisdom and Silver don't interact AT ALL until my case on Silver, which suddenly makes them start distancing each other to hell. Silver actually starts ignoring me and tunnels Wisdom for a page. They're banking on one of them getting lynched and the other getting MASSIVE towncred for it due to their bickering.

And yes, this is absolutely a 'damned if you do damned if you don't'. Silver is scummy enough IMO to transcend Wisdom's flip; if Wisdom flips scum, it points to Silver, and if he flips town, it negates your entire reason for a townread on her.

^This is probably the most important of my past cases right now. I already analysed their earlier interaction. Wisdom-scumflip points straight to SW.

Edit: If Constantine and Riddleton are both not town, I'll self vote and leave LyLo up to wgeurts, Newbie, BMWS, and acryon, minus whoever dies. Nothing is really confirming me as town right now and I don't think I should be alive at LyLo.

[acryon]

Edit: If Constantine and Riddleton are both not town, I'll self vote and leave LyLo up to wgeurts, Newbie, BMWS, and acryon, minus whoever dies. Nothing is really confirming me as town right now and I don't think I should be alive at LyLo.

Something tells me we won't get to that point, but if we get close, we will re-evaluate to see who is the biggest liability at that time. Hopefully not you, because I think having someone that's very active and analytically-minded is really important for convincing town in LyLo.

[Mathdino]

I do want to hear from Constantine / Riddleton - at least one of them is town.

With luck, Riddleton will still be advocating for his own policy lynch. If he's not, then we need to speedlynch him because he's a liar and we have room for mislynches.

I don't really want to hear much from Constantine other than "I was wrong" and "Argumem de obicular doesn't exist".

[acryon]

I do want to hear from Constantine / Riddleton - at least one of them is town.

With luck, Riddleton will still be advocating for his own policy lynch. If he's not, then we need to speedlynch him because he's a liar and we have room for mislynches.

I don't really want to hear much from Constantine other than "I was wrong" and "Argumem de obicular doesn't exist".

I am hoping, specifically, for the latter.

[Newbie]

Town is slaying it :p

Vote: Riddleton

I agree about it being either Riddleton, Constantine, or acryon.

[borkjerfkin]

Nothing is really confirming me as town right now and I don't think I should be alive at LyLo.

Why do you not want to be at lylo?

[Mathdino]

The fact that part of my scumhunting was active masonhunting and that I'm partially responsible for the masons claiming means that if I'm alive with 2 of wgeurts, Newbie, and BMWS, I'm probably going to die. And die alone and confused, at that, because I'll eat my hat if they're not all town.

I pretty much have Newbie's exact reads.

Let's hammer and win the game.

[borkjerfkin]

I'm going to lay back a bit and see what transpires. My observation is probably more pro-town than my interaction would be right now, since my alignment isn't in question.

[acryon]

I'm going to lay back a bit and see what transpires. My observation is probably more pro-town than my interaction would be right now, since my alignment isn't in question.

Agreed. There is no reason for us to over-complicate things when we are so close to winning. Especially since we have room for error, it makes a lot more sense to play it safe for right now.

[Mathdino]

Meh. Just give your thoughts to Mala in the mason thread if we're wrong and you die tonight.

Hey wgeurts, hammer if you're so sure Constantine's town.

Edit: mehhhhh
We pretty much autowin. Someone wants to come up with a reason that Riddleton's not the remaining scum, I'm all ears.

[borkjerfkin]

Sorry for the wall in advance.

Splitting this up into a few sections to keep it organized/focused on things I think are notable.

Early Game/Wgeurts Questioning

-39 was basically just a re-wording of my initial questioning of Victor’s question. I didn’t really think much of it at the time, but now it seems like may have been trying to gain some town-cred by calling out Victor even though I already did that. It looks like it worked because in 46 Mathdino seems to give him some of that cred.
-64 we see Wisdom seconding a question from wgeurts about why I thought the vote on him may be justified. I thought it was painfully obvious to everyone but wgeurts why people might be suspecting him given his erratic play. This made sense coming from someone who is new, but looking at it from Wisdom now seems fabricated. I think he should have known better.
-In 103, he questions wgeurts on unvoting him. This is one of those things that I think isn’t inherently scummy, but if you are looking at it being done by potential scum, it looks really scummy.
-108 is another example of this I think. He questions TTH this time about not engaging him directly. He is very proactive in his defense.
-110 and 114 are more of the same. Now that I’m reading through it again, all of these types of posts are really rubbing me the wrong way. I’m still don’t know that they point to him being scum, but they do help prop up a scum-case on him I think.
-In 188, he calls for wgeurts to stop the mason-talk, which is pro-town, but he does so after Mathdino already calls it out, so it’s hard to give him real town-points for it.
-299 he begins to go after SW for defending him. I’m all for looking into those appearing to WK you as scum, but the way he is going about it does seem a little too aggressive to be genuine.

Push on SW

-I actually agreed with the push on SW, as I joined in as well. If Wisdom is scum, there is still a chance, I think, that this was a bus. It did feel quite genuine, but I don’t want to rule it out just because it felt good.
-346 pings as he says he will self-vote over a NL. This is not town-motivated. Lynching a random person is better than a NL, but if you are town, then lynching what is a confirmed town to you is not better than a NL.

Miscellaneous

-Looking at this vote-count, I think there is a

very

good chance that there was some bussing going on:
Wisdom (4) - TellTaleHeart, wgeurts, SilverWolf, Newbie
wgeurts (4) - VictorDeAngelo, blindmewithscience, Wisdom, Mathdino
VictorDeAngelo (1) - acryon
acryon (1) – Malakittens
I’m not going to speculate pre-flip, but I wanted to make a note for future reference if Wisdom does end up being the lynch and flips scum.
-In the VC in 400, I don’t know how likely it is that 2+ scum would be on the wgeurts wagon at that point in time. I’m certainly not saying it’s impossible, but my initial thought on it is that this gives Wisdom some town-points.

Mala/Mid-game

-In 354, I made a far-fetched (and I admitted it as such) post about a potential Mala coaching wgeurts situation. I think most people recognized this as some wild speculation (as it was), but Wisdom jumped on it in 355.
-Then in 404, he sort of begins to run with it by questioning Mala on her reads, although he hadn’t really engaged her much at all before now.
-In 590/593 he votes and pushes for more info from Mala. I actually liked this, because Mala had been pretty weak with her reasoning.
-In 610 Wisdom mentions masons maybe voting each other to muddy the waters, and this doesn’t really make any sense at all. Town don’t vote players who are confirmed town to them; they either vote scum or vote to pressure those they are unsure about. Very weird comment to make, especially from someone with a good amount of experience.
-614 he gets weirdly defensive toward TTH and says he is “starting to consider [him avoiding interaction with him] a scum tactic.” This just reads really awkwardly.
-666 he again is asking for people to explain town-reads on him. All of this focus on explanations for town-reading him seem to indicate a greater desire to clear himself to town than to actually find scum. It isn’t scummy to be concerned about what people think of you, but the degree to which he has focused on it is suspect.

Late-game

-696 and [/post]740[/post] do read like scum trying to protect their buddy. The soft-defense definitely pings a bit.
-752 and 755 do venture into hard-defending territory, but it is quickly backed off in 760 where he concedes that Victor did some weird things.
-I agreed with a lot of his pushing on Constantine, and still do.
-His post in 786 pings. He asks both myself and Mathdino, knowing that we shared similar views on SW in the past, so it seems like he could be trying to keep us strung along behind him.
-1084 is super weird. “The remaining scum is mala and most likely acryon”. What?? He had never even really mentioned me before that point and now I am most likely scum?
-1099 is just so weak. He says I am scum simply due to PoE, but could also be N_M or BMWS. This is just so confusing. His reasoning for thinking any of me/MMWS/N_M is nonexistent.

The fact that I have agreed with more than one of the wagons he was pushing makes me obviously reluctant to push him over someone I have completely disagreed with(Constantine), but it does appear that there is a very good chance he is scum. I think it is an absolute certainty that one of Wisdom/Riddleton/Constantine is scum, and very probably that 2 are scum.

VOTE: Wisdom

I'm a little worried about this post.

Dude was defending wisdom all game then as soon as I spilled it and Mathdino jumped on, it's case time

[borkjerfkin]

I forgot one possibly pertinent thing that I will paraphrase from the mason topic:

cheetory was worried that acryon was playing dumb about wgeurts being bad as town, so maybe they all have some history together?

I'm wondering if that explains the nightkill. I feel like all things considered, any scum who had no experience with any of mala, cheetory, or me would've killed me.

[borkjerfkin]

I think flip constantine / acryon in my 'lynch them in this order' list, imo. I think constantine's just constantineing.

[Mathdino]

Wouldn't it be kind of a dumbass move to bus your partner D2 and try to solo the game 1v8, especially when you're pretty much in the lynchpool due to 6 confirmed townies when your partner flips? The correct move there was to not bus. Like what Constantine and Riddleton did.

Also, I defended Wisdom all game and changed my mind when you spilled it. So did Newbie.

Edit: Eh, there's a good point to be made about Constantine hard-defending Wisdom all game even though he keeps going on about lynching off the wagon of Victor. Plus he was using being right about Victor to justify lynches on 2 very active players.

[acryon]

I'm a little worried about this post.

Dude was defending wisdom all game then as soon as I spilled it and Mathdino jumped on, it's case time

Hmm, I don't know that I was defending him really, I just didn't like a lot of the arguments against him, especially earlier on, and specifically SW's. I was never town-reading Wisdom as far as I remember. He was a really firm null, because some of his comments were enough to keep me from a town-read, but the cases were bad enough to keep me from a scum-read. During the Mala-Wisdom battle, I thought it looked very strongly like TvT.

Regarding being influenced by your thought of him as scum, I

strongly

value replace-in reads, as there is a lot to gain from looking at things from a fresh perspective. After hearing what you had to say, I decided to try and do the same, and I came to the same conclusion as you. Even at the end, I still wasn't incredibly confident he was scum, and my vote wasn't even a part of the lynch.

[Mathdino]

I'd have killed Mala, actually. Jussayin.

[wgeurts]

Wait is riddle L1?
VOTE: Riddleton

[acryon]

Me too. It makes no sense to me to kill N_M/cheetory in that spot, which is why I think it's usually best to not put much stock in NK discussion, because it's often done just to confuse the town.

[borkjerfkin]

Also, I defended Wisdom all game and changed my mind when you spilled it. So did Newbie.

Newbie definitely did not do that. Newbie was very organically back and forth on Wisdom.

You had seeds of suspicion on Wisdom the whole time.

acyron was being what I would call an 'apologist' for him - he acknowledged a lot of stuff was a little goofy but he thought that the demeanor read town and never really deviated from that until that case which was like 'DIS GAI'S OBVSCUM'