Open 577: Hope Plus One! (GAME OVER - SCUM WIN)

[Cane + Able]

That's because Constantine's meta is anti-town.

His playstyle. Is actually to try to screw over town.

I'd policy him if

there weren't actual suspects

. Which Constantine is willfully ignoring.

Your idea of a suspect (asking to /in for a townbloc) is his idea of an ally (the townbloc was his idea and he fished another member for it).

He's not ignoring your suspect, he obviously simply disagrees with you.

If such terribad pay is his playstyle and you know it, why do you toss fuel on the fire? Drama and chaos inhibits hunting.

[Cane + Able]

Come to think of it, I am convinced by your soft defense of Constantine, Math.

UNVOTE:

However, you have landed squarely in my cross hairs in the process.

Manipulating a player's playstyle to fuel drama and trying to fabricate associative tells on the first page of the first day is pretty blatant scum play.

VOTE: Mathdino

[Mathdino]

A vote for Constantine is a policy vote. That's all there is. Policy lynch is the last resort to not having suspects.

I find it interesting how you think I manipulated his playstyle when he decided to take initiative in trying to PL me for idiotic reasons. And then decided to completely ignore me. Quote the post where you think I tried to get a rise out of him.

You never did respond to my quesiton about the associatives. Where do you think my logic was off?

[Cane + Able]

Quote the post where you think I tried to get a rise out of him.

How bout you not talk about ongoing games, Constantine?

Not exactly ready for you to start clogging up the thread, mate.

Ground zero. This is where you two started into unnecessary drama.

Discussion of ongoing games is not game content. It should be taken directly to the game or list mods. Then such an inflammatory accusation was followed by ad hominem.

You never did respond to my quesiton about the associatives. Where do you think my logic was off?

The sheer fact it was made 12 posts into the first day, nevermind the fact it is (obviously) pre-flip.

[Mathdino]

For the record, I'm not letting this become another mathdino dominated game. He didn't exactly lead town to scum in the last few games he was in, and I'm not ready for the mindless scum to start latching on to him.

#73 would like to have a word with you. Do you find this necessary? My 74 was an irritated response to the above.

Okay so here's what I'm not getting. Why do you find it okay to say "[X] is town" but not "[X] and [Y] are not scum together"? Because we used the exact same piece of evidence to arrive at our conclusions; I just don't we have enough to call BMWS definitively town this early.

Explain how this is scummy, or at least explain the scum motivation. The fact that you've yet to come up with a reason my logic is faulty makes me think you don't disagree with it.

[Mathdino]

The problem with pre-flip associatives is lining up lynches; "If Player A is town, Player B is scum. If Player C is scum, Player D is scum." It allows scum to easily set up a lynch on a townsperson later on, and make excuses as to lynching for information.

You're applying a buzzword to a statement I made that A. is quite founded based on the evidence, and B. has no scum motivation.

[Cane + Able]

For the record, I'm not letting this become another mathdino dominated game. He didn't exactly lead town to scum in the last few games he was in, and I'm not ready for the mindless scum to start latching on to him.

#73 would like to have a word with you. Do you find this necessary? My 74 was an irritated response to the above.

Okay so here's what I'm not getting. Why do you find it okay to say "[X] is town" but not "[X] and [Y] are not scum together"? Because we used the exact same piece of evidence to arrive at our conclusions; I just don't we have enough to call BMWS definitively town this early.

Explain how this is scummy, or at least explain the scum motivation. The fact that you've yet to come up with a reason my logic is faulty makes me think you don't disagree with it.

73 is irrelevant!

Accusations of rule breaking should be made via PM to the mods

to avoid this very scenario

.

The fact you don't understand why you can't determine association pre-flip makes me think you don't understand associative tells, which supports my read.

[Mathdino]

Your idea of a suspect (asking to /in for a townbloc) is his idea of an ally (the townbloc was his idea and he fished another member for it).

He's not ignoring your suspect, he obviously simply disagrees with you.

If such terribad pay is his playstyle and you know it, why do you toss fuel on the fire? Drama and chaos inhibits hunting.

I'm not asking him to vote the same person I am. I'm saying there've been enough people that've posted to come up with basic leads other than a policy lynch off the bat.

I'm also trying to discredit his wild accusations to discredit me before the game's even started. The first thing he says about me is he won't let this become a me-dominated game; in essence, he'll actively work to inhibit my participation in discussions. I, for one, won't let him try to get the playerlist and his 'allies' to ignore me.

Edit: Okay. Sure. Explain them to me then, please.

[Cane + Able]

Your "tell" (lol) has an objective 75% chance of being right.

Oh, I'm making your point... right? Wrong. You could make the same statement regarding any two players and have the same 75% accuracy.

That's before even reading the two players involved. Read either one of them as town, and you are looking at a 90-95% accuracy rating.

So "associative tell that you aren't scum together" is a say nothing statement designed to look like scum hunting.

[Mathdino]

Okay. So firstly, I never used the word 'tell'. You did.

Second of all, you aren't listening to my logic. You assert that because BMWS didn't know who was in your hydra, he is town. I assert that because BMWS didn't know who was in your hydra, he cannot be scum with you. I find this to be a far more accurate statement than if I made it about any two players.

Does your statement that he's town not also have a 75% accuracy rate? Fact is, I don't fully agree with that. But what I can say is that I have a null-scum read on BMWS and a null-town read on you, and I've also provided other info on BMWS besides "this guy made a townslip", so yeah, I have been scumhunting, and yeah, I'm pretty sure my statement is correct.

You've yet to point out the flaw in my argument. Mostly because it's

the exact same argument you used

to prove he's town. I just arrived at a less confident conclusion.

[Mathdino]

So was my pre-flip association (you and BMWS are either town/town or town/scum) bad because:
1. It's dangerous (this is the usual reason pre-flip associatives are bad), or
2. It's fluff and a useless statement?

If 1, well, show me how. If 2, well, I've been scumhunting besides that one statement and participating in non-Constantine discussion. So I don't see what your issue is.

[Cane + Able]

So was my pre-flip association (you and BMWS are either town/town or town/scum) bad because:
1. It's dangerous (this is the usual reason pre-flip associatives are bad), or
2. It's fluff and a useless statement?

If 1, well, show me how. If 2, well, I've been scumhunting besides that one statement and participating in non-Constantine discussion. So I don't see what your issue is.

It's worse than fluff. It's fake scum hunting. I've already spelled out how.

There is zero town motivation to fake scum hunt.

Ergo, scum.

[Cane + Able]

Okay. So firstly, I never used the word 'tell'. You did.

Second of all, you aren't listening to my logic. You assert that because BMWS didn't know who was in your hydra, he is town. I assert that because BMWS didn't know who was in your hydra, he cannot be scum with you. I find this to be a far more accurate statement than if I made it about any two players.

Does your statement that he's town not also have a 75% accuracy rate? Fact is, I don't fully agree with that. But what I can say is that I have a null-scum read on BMWS and a null-town read on you, and I've also provided other info on BMWS besides "this guy made a townslip", so yeah, I have been scumhunting, and yeah, I'm pretty sure my statement is correct.

You've yet to point out the flaw in my argument. Mostly because it's

the exact same argument you used

to prove he's town. I just arrived at a less confident conclusion.

Are you new to the game?

"Player x is town" = 50% objective chance of being right. Player x is either town or not. Then subjective reasoning affects that 50%.

"Players x & y are not scum together" = 75% objective chance of being right.

Player x town, player y town = right
Player x town, player y scum = right
Player x scum, player y town = right
Player x scum, player y scum = wrong

3 out of 4 possibilities = 75% objective accuracy.

Then read one player as town, and the odds increase from there.

TL;DR> Your conclusion should have been solid.

[Mathdino]

Are you new to mathematics?

From my standpoint, there are 12 other players, 3 of which are scum. 'Player x is town' has a 8/12, or 75% chance of being right. Subjective reasoning affects that. So you're wrong on that part, because a 50% chance of anyone being town would imply a 6 person scumteam.

So lemme get this straight.
1. You make the statement that BMWS is town based on your evidence.
2. I make the statement that BMWS/C+A is impossible (like 99% impossible), but BMWS can very well be scum.
3. You scumread me for... being right?

Again, you're using a scumhunting buzzword (pre-flip associatives) as a scumtell, which it's not. There are no scumtells. You can tell me that a pre-flip association might be

wrong

, or even

dangerous

, in which case I'll listen to you. But to say it's fake and call me scum for that, when I've done much more than make that one statement, is just plain tunnel vision.

[Cane + Able]

Player x is scum is 50% objectively accurate regardless I'd it is 2 players or 2 million (hint, learn what objectively means). Adding factors outside of that statement changes the objective percentage to a subjective one.

I scum read you for saying absolutely nothing while looking like you were saying something. Typical scum tactic.

[Mathdino]

Yeah, uh, no offence, but you can't do math.

There are 3 scum among 13 players. 12 players if you're town and discount yourself. If you randomly select one of these players, there's a 25% chance they're scum. There's a reason you roll town 3 times as often than you roll scum. I don't think you know what you're talking about here.

Aaaand again you ignore the rest of my analysis on what happened there. I absolutely said more than "these players aren't scum together". Anything ruling out possibilities is useful for the future.

Also, you claim there's 0 motivation to 'fake scumhunt', but what about thinking out loud? Because that's how I play. I don't care to look at how much analysis is in my posts, I just point out things as I go, and it usually ends up having analysis in it.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

I can tell this is going to be a rough one. Both of you, chill and be nicew to each other. Especially mathdino.
I get so sick of dominating players in mafia, especially when they are ruthless and insulting. Chill, or replace out.
Otherwise you're going to make this game very un-fun. I mean it. No one joined to be subjected to this.

For the record, I'm not entirely sure mathdino is scum in this game. He's just very concerned with becoming the town leader, and sees me as a threat to that goal.
I'll talk more when the time is right, and I'll have a couple of interesting things that I can share with all of you, but for now, continue being chill.

[Pastro]

/confirm

[Pastro]

I do not trust Pastro.

You have got to wonder what he puts in his pastries.

- Wake

ARE YOU JOKING?

[Pastro]

VOTE: Constantine
Because he's Constantine

That's not a legitimate reason.

[Pastro]

VOTE: BMWS
For being BMWS

Sigh, you don't vote people just for who they are. You're supposed to scumhunt and vote whoever you think is scum. What's the point of playing forum mafia if you're just going to vote for ludicrous reasons.

[Pastro]

VOTE: Aneninen

for asking to be in a townbloc.

[notreallygood]

/confirm

So I've taken a brief look at your posts. There are a few things I don't quite understand.

@Math
You've told us that you've provided other info on BMWS besides how he made a townslip. However, I went through your ISO and couldn't find anything other than "his post isn't enough to make him town" or "we don't have enough to call BMWS definitively town this early", which are bascially about his townslip. Would you mind pointing out what exactly is this "other info"?

And I don't get why House and you brought out the probabilities of scumhunting. After all, it's just a theory which can't be totally relied on. The situation is actually very dynamic, changing from time to time. Would you please explain the purposes of talking about it?

@Pastro

VOTE: BMWS
For being BMWS

Sigh, you don't vote people just for who they are. You're supposed to scumhunt and vote whoever you think is scum. What's the point of playing forum mafia if you're just going to vote for ludicrous reasons.

He was in RVS.

[acryon]

VOTE: BMWS
For being BMWS

Sigh, you don't vote people just for who they are. You're supposed to scumhunt and vote whoever you think is scum. What's the point of playing forum mafia if you're just going to vote for ludicrous reasons.

He was in RVS.

This was after it was established that we had already left RVS. But either way, it was clearly done by Constantine in some form of jest.

Key points and my thoughts:
-Town blocs - Terrible
-BMWS townslip - Agreed, but I wouldn't carry it for more than a day or two at most
-Mathdino's defense against the "townslip" - Disagree, but I understand where he's coming from and think we need to be sure that seeing the townslip != totally writing off the slot as town
-Cane + Able's Hard Defense of the Townslip - A little much. Holding onto this so tightly will cause long-term damage to town, so you can hold onto it, but with skepticism as always
-Policy lynches - Terrible
-Associative tell from Math re: BMWS & C+A - I actually agree, although again,

no one

should be holding onto these or other types of reads this early on for the entire game. I hope we don't have to even say this, but people are seeming to treat each other like their reads in the first few pages are etched in stone.

[theelkspeaks]

bumping for vote count incoming.