Open 575: Friends & Enemies-Together At Last (OVER)

[borkjerfkin]

"Riddleton's case elaborated on it further and his other points were good as well. After that, I noticed that it seemed some people were throwing out other names (riddleton and Constantine for example) to get away from the VD lynch. That further cemented my suspicion."

what is intrinsically weird about this?

It's essentially the same thing constantine was saying: people were trying to build counterwagons to vic.

[blindmewithscience]

what is intrinsically weird about this?

It's essentially the same thing constantine was saying: people were trying to build counterwagons to vic.

I don't see why there being counterwagons led to greater suspicion... Please explain if you do see the connection.

[borkjerfkin]

I think that's a pretty commonly held belief - a counterwagon rising rapidly to combat an existing wagon suggests that the initial wagon was on scum and the counterwagon is on town.

I think it's a bit pseudosciency (certainly nothing to be used to blind someone) in that it isn't backed up with hard data but I don't think newbie is scummy for thinking this (and you can see both constantine and tth I believe spoke to the same point)

[borkjerfkin]

Wisdom sowing the seeds of discord; this whole suggestion to lynch Riddleton is a ridiculous ruse to cause confusion and force the town into making a hasty, bad decision.

Thanks, but no thanks. I'm good with my Victor vote.

I still feel more comfortable lynching victor, and I agree with newbie about their being resistance.
While I'm more than happy to deadline lynch riddleton, there's just this off feeling that it's a counter wagon.

[Mathdino]

I think it's a bit pseudosciency (certainly nothing to be used to blind someone)

omg

[Newbie]

BMWS, I want your lynch order. I'll sacrifice myself if it turns out I'm just gonna get lynched in LyLo anyway, and if I agree on the person you're planning to lynch if I die.

Counterwagons can be a sort-of tell on the accuracy of the wagon you're on. Generally it's much easier to form wagons on town than it is on scum.

Newbie was pretty much completely inactive D2

, and Wisdom and Mala kind of hijacked the entire day, so there wasn't much to push when it came to Newbie. I got pretty confident one of Wisdom/Mala was scum and that one of Constantine/Riddleton was scum; Newbie was the tertiary suspect up until the Wisdom can of worms was opened.

And in case you guys didn't notice, the above post is still insanely town, FYI. The scum is in acryon or Newbie.

Um, no I wasn't. Wtf?

[Mathdino]

Oh, you're right, you weren't. I think I thought you were lurking because
1. Your posts had very very little content and thus I forgot about you, and
2. We post at different times.

Basically what I'm saying is the others hijacked the day.

[Newbie]

Ok...

[acryon]

V/LA until Monday as usual. May be able to post before then but most likely not.

[Mathdino]

This is boring.

Newbie, how would you feel if I self-hammered?

[Mathdino]

Acyron isn't confirmed scum. Nothing in this game is confirmed, but I guarantee you town will win by lynching the two people off the wagon and the last two people on the wagon

This is completely wrong. If I had to throw out numbers I would say when scum are on a wagon it is 25% in the beginning, 50% in the middle and 25% in the end. The absolutes you are trying to put on this game are completely wrong and are severely skewing your perspective.

Funny thing I noticed. acryon has never been on the middle of a wagon. Literally all his votes were either the 1st vote on someone, or among the last votes.

BMWS, get in here, there's nothing to do.

[borkjerfkin]

Md: gun to your head, who ya got?

[borkjerfkin]

Newbie, acryon, BMWS, myself.

Or rather: is this still accurate?

[Mathdino]

Still accurate, yes.

In an ideal world, Newbie and acryon would vote each other in RVS and BMWS would be the arbiter and would look through the game and make a good decision, but that doesn't look like it'll happen.

[borkjerfkin]

Would not mind the three of you working through bmws read rest of today without my input (I think he is town)

[Mathdino]

After Wisdom died, the playerlist was:

Constantine, Riddleton, wgeurts
borkjerfkin, Malakittens, Not_Mafia/Cheetory
Mathdino, BMWS, Newbie, acryon
The correct play here for scum would be to go after Constantine and Riddleton, obviously. Still no idea what was up with the Cheetory kill.

After Riddleton died, the playerlist was:

Constantine, wgeurts
borkjerfkin, Malakittens
Mathdino, BMWS, Newbie, acryon

Correct play is to go after Constantine. Malakittens was against a PL on Constantine after D2. Mala's original lynchpool was {Wisdom, BMWS, Riddleton, wgeurts} and later added acryon and Newbie. Her townreads were me and (I believe) Constantine. The below is bork's reads list:

These are my tiers from most to least likely for scum #3

Dude it's probably Riddleton

Riddleton

If that doesn't pan out look here

Constantine

Swore this dude was town for how he interacted with Wisdom today but

acryon

If we get here something is seriously wrong

wgeurts, Mathdino, BMWS

No

Newbie

Remember, scum had no idea we'd end up with wgeurts and Constantine getting modkilled. After Const's lynch it would've been me, acryon, Newbie, BMWS, and wgeurts.

bork harddefended Newbie from the first time he mentioned the Wisdom/Newbie interaction, while he essentially lined up acryon for a lynch. On the other hand, of the current alive players, I'm the only one that Mala defended while she lined up everyone else for lynch.
I think it's Newbie.
Also gut says BMWS wouldn't kill Cheetory.

[Mathdino]

From me/acryon/Newbie/BMWS/wgeurts, consider:
Newbie would be practically confirmed town from what bork said. The lynch at that point would be acryon going off of everyone's lynchpools back then.
At that point, the last lynch would be either BMWS or wgeurts.

Remember, had bork died instead of Mala, a Constantine lynch might not've happened. Keeping bork alive was the best way to ensure that occurring.

You know what, I don't have any idea where this is heading.
tl;dr The NKs don't benefit acryon at all, and I don't think BMWS would've made them.

[borkjerfkin]

I downgraded the hell out of constantine later but I think that got lost in the shuffle

[borkjerfkin]

As in didnt want to lynch him

[Mathdino]

I think flip constantine / acryon in my 'lynch them in this order' list, imo. I think constantine's just constantineing.

This is all I saw that says you did that.

Anyway, acryon's statement that he'd be all for clearing him or something back in D3 looks very townish.

All I really want right now is acryon saying he'd vote Newbie over BMWS come LyLo. At that point I'll ask BMWS to hammer me.

[borkjerfkin]

I think all my lack of death does is point to acryon town if even that. I think any scum in my 2nd or lowest tier should have liked their chances of at least making it to lylo

[Mathdino]

Precisely.

BMWS, this day is going to end with either you hammering me or helping me get acryon to vote Newbie.

It is literally not going to end in any other way.

VOTE: Newbie

[Mathdino]

If it makes you feel any better, bork, there's literally no way I as scum can win this unless I pull some super WIFOMy "leave bork alive and kill Newbie to point away from me" gambit.

[borkjerfkin]

sorry man, but we both know down this road leads wifom and is such I must discount it

See the end of open 459

[Mathdino]

459 had a sig bet, this is related...?

Anyway, yeah, I know you have to discount it.
That's exactly why I said I can't win this if I were scum.
Lynch Newbie tomorrow.