Open 575: Friends & Enemies-Together At Last (OVER)

[reinoe]

MOD STUFF

Seems legit!

VOTE COUNT!!!!

borkjerkfin-
Newbie-Mathdino (L-2)
Mathdino-borkjerfkin, acryon, (L-1)
blindmewithscience-Newbie (L-2)
acryon-

not voting- blindmewithscience


With 5 Alive it's 3 to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2014-11-23 07:00:00)

The group is asked to leave the dining area...but only because they need to prepare for dinner. You guys want to go to the pool area but you just ate...and also you're all various levels of drunk. So instead you guys walk around until it's time to do some whale watching. Neat-o!

[blindmewithscience]

Gah, this game. I'm really not sure if we'll make the right decisions.
MD: just to be abundantly clear: you are COMPLETELY fine with lynching you today so long as you are guarantees a Newbie lynch tomorrow?
Brok: how strong is your townread on acryon?(at least, I think thats your read..)
Newbie: has your lynch order changed? How willing are you for lybching MD?
Acryon: whenever you get back, please give your thoughts and lynch order.

So I went over the interactions since the modkills, everyone's cases and defenses, etc.
Acryon went from voting me to voting MD, because of Borks case.Newbie made a case against me, and her vote is still on me. Has the most situation changed for you, Newbie?
And then this last page is making me really torn. My townread on acryon is just stronger than on Newbie or MD, so I just want to lynch them both.

Suppose MD gets lynched today and is town. We're left with Me, newbie and acryon. Right now, I would vote Newvie for sure. It would take a case from newbie to convince me to vote the other way. I want to make an informed decision about this potential case, though. I guess what I'm getting at is NEWBIE: If you want to survive D5, please post a case against acryon before the deadline for D4, so that we can have the whole input of town on it, and time to think about it.

[blindmewithscience]

Forgot to add that after reading that section again, my general reads of everyone hasn't changed since my last post.

[Mathdino]

To answer the question, yes. After all, if I somehow convince you to lynch Newbie today and she flips town, I'm getting lynched tomorrow no matter what thanks to bork. The order doesn't really matter.

If anyone wants it, I can provide a towncase on acryon, but I'm pretty sure no one cares right now, lol.

BMWS, you're forgetting that Newbie is scumreading you and if she wants to survive D5 is probably going to try and get acryon to lynch you.
I doubt you're going to be the arbiter here. This isn't an ideal world.

You can hammer me once
A. acryon voices intent to vote Newbie.
B. There are no loose threads in discussion.

And Newbie, if you're town, for the love of god stop tunneling BMWS. The fact that he's town should be hitting you over the head like a goddamn anvil. Spend your time on acryon, cause no one else seems willing to.

[blindmewithscience]

BMWS, you're forgetting that Newbie is scumreading you and if she wants to survive D5 is probably going to try and get acryon to lynch you.
I doubt you're going to be the arbiter here. This isn't an ideal world.

Didn't forget about that. Newbie hasn't posted anything about my recent posts, only saying in 2043 and 2046 that her vote wasn't changing, and agreeing that I needed to post.

[blindmewithscience]

Whoops, didn't finish my post.

Wait a minute...
No one's actually given a solid town case on Newbie I think.
Bork wants MD lynched, and said acryon was townier than Newbie (is this still correct Bork?), with me as a townread, so newbie is 2nd scummiest I think for him.
MD wants Newbie lynched.
Acryon is torn on Newbie, way back at 1878 (is this still true?)
I think I've made my opinion clear.
Everyone is reading bill to scum on Newbie.
Besides the TTH/Wisdom/Newbie mason interaction around 676, is there anything else at all that make Newbie town?

[blindmewithscience]

Wow.
Everyone is reading NULL to scum on Newbie.
Gah, phone posting.

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: A Not So Brief History Of My Read On Newbie

Newbie and Wisdom both seem town.

Newbie still seems town.

Still think Newbie and Wisdom are town.

I just realised that I completely forgot to include Newbie in my reads list. Everything on her ISO with the exception of the wagon hop to Wisdom seems townish, but what I don't get is how or why she got convinced so easily by someone she thought was scum a page prior. I could see how she might fall for the AtE self voting/unvoting stuff, but that doesn't negate everything did beforehand.

Newbie, sorry for the rampant questioning, but can you explain this more?

On a sidenote, I forgot to say this earlier, but I'm not sure what I think of Newbie's overconfidence that Wisdom isn't town (saying she'll be a top suspect if he does). On the contrary; if Wisdom is lynched and actually flips scum, I'm turning to you for bussing the guy.
Slightly leaning town on Newbie, I don't think that's gonna change until we get at least a flip.

I'll take you at your word for now because I still think you're town and I still think Wisdom's town, haha. The bussing suspicion was derived entirely from the post you linked to; the fact that you're at risk if you mislynch really just doesn't need to be said, since that's true of pretty much everyone. If Wisdom flips town, I'll still think you're town.

If you flip town? I still have my suspicions on wgeurts. I think Wisdom may have a point on there being scum in {SilverWolf, Newbie} but as I said I'm not prepared to go after Newbie without at least a flip. I'll also go over some wagon analysis, but I can't exactly do that right now.

And now, an intermission with a bonus case from wgeurts:

Ok, you first with me say you thought my unvote was suspicous without further reasons. You then post a long post using all reasons others have worked out and discussed for a while. The discussion was a few pages long and you didn't find my vote so scummy at first otherwise you would have pushed it and/or voted me. You did neither and decided to lurk, that isn't scummy in its self however one of your forst posts afterwords instantly used others reason right after discussion to jump on me.
Then the same happens with your vote on wisdom, you lurked and then suddeneley you jump on wisdom

Using arguments others were alreay discussing

. You didn't even help discuss, you just jumped, like that. Your not scum hunting, as you said you are new. A new scum I would expect to see taking their chances when they pop up and you are. There's no scum hunting on your behalf, most if your posts contain nothing new and are worthless fluff. Your trying to look town but are faking it badly like a newbie.

I also heavily suspect wisdom.

Sorry for putting you on hold Riddleton but I wanted to address some of Newbie's analysis first.

On the other hand, the way that he went after Silverwolf did feel just a bit opportunistic. Point #2 of that entire post seems like reaching if acryon was referring to SW trying to get the wagon off of herself. Also, I don't like how he shares that he heavily thinks wgeurts is town but would still be alright with him getting lynched, even though that's not something he would prefer. Looking at it from a scum perspective, it would allow acryon to be okay with a townie getting lynched while being able to fall back on "well, I did say I didn't like the idea of voting him in the first place."

Understand that even a D1 random lynch is better than a no lynch because it gains information, and a policy lynch is certainly better than NL. The lynch is the only power town has. Better use it.

SilverWolf: I can see people's points about her earlier posts mostly agreeing with other people's reasonings, but she did add a bit more her insight into things. ex. (I think she was even actually the first one to specifically mention a slayer's gambit), ex., ex., ex., ex..

On the other hand, her defense against mathdino, acryon, and Wisdom didn't come off too well. Who knows, maybe SW is just an emotional person, but it did not look good for her.

This pinged me; I can't say I'm comfortable with this part of the post. This read seems much more IIOA and summary than any sort of analysis, and really comes across to me as fencesitting. At any point you can make a stance on SilverWolf and it'd still be consistent with this post. Do you

have

a read on her, Newbie?

Here's my other issue with your post, Newbie. You're on the fence with literally almost everyone in this game, it's mostly just "this is a good point, this is a not-so-good point" but I got nothing out of reading that, not even where you stand, which defeats the purpose of reads list. Furthermore I'm not even convinced by anything you've said since you don't have a stance to really argue for. There's MORE than enough information in this game to come up with something but I'm not even sure who you'd be for or against lynching, and we're nearing deadline fast.

Here's another question, since you apparently liked the post where I asked something like this. Who are your top 2 candidates for lynching (outside of policy)? What other suspicions were you talking about here?

Addendum because I don't feel like putting it above: I have a fleeting suspicion that Newbie went with this reads list because she felt compelled to in order to be active and provide thoughts, not because it really helps scumhunt. Reading through her ISO gives me a definite feel of fencesittiness on anyone that she's not currently voting on.
Since we're nearing deadline I'm not going to push a Newbie lynch (and I still have to look over Victor) but I think this stuff should be kept in mind just in case. Very much beginning to rethink my read on her in light of Silver's meta and what people are reading off her AtE stuff.
Oh, yeah,

FoS: her

.

It's incredibly unlikely to me that Newbie and Silver's slot are both scum, thus my unFoSing.

Mala may have a point, if I'm putting on my "Victor-is-scum" glasses.

Here's an ISO of Victor and Newbie.
Note that they had 0 direct interaction, the only indirect interaction at the very start was Victor being all "Mathdino y u ask Newbie for meta". Now, Newbie didn't really do anything about that, but I can't blame her for that.

However, this is the first time Newbie references Victor. (#137) She claims she was suspicious of him in order to prove she's scumhunting to wgeurts, but this is only after the fact, and he's apparently fine in her book now.

#213, Victor agrees with Newbie. Admittedly not too major, but we're being exhaustive here.

#702, Newbie's reads list. To quote Newbie, "[Victor's] early questioning of mathdino was odd, but he had a good point." Eh, not terribly in depth but okay.

#825, BAM, Newbie is suddenly willing to lynch Victor without any explanation and while apparently townreading Victor. I said that one of Constantine's 'scumtells' (I'd prefer to call them scummy actions) is correct, and that's voting one way and reading another. Here's Newbie's votepost. No explanation.

#897, but wait, there's more! Newbie for the first time provides a reason to suspect Victor (while she's actually suspecting him)... except these reasons formulated when Victor posted after she voted. She provided a reason to keep her vote on him, but not why she voted him.

Newbie's presence on the Victor wagon is overall fairly suspicious and can very well be taken as bussing.

Lastly, Newbie admits that Victor was likely to just run up the time, but still doesn't support Mala's hammering him. She seems so certain after her votepost that Victor's scum, but also very much wanting to give him a voice in the matter.

think the scum on the wagon are in {SilverWolf/Riddleton, Constantine, Newbie}. SilverWolf due to her initial reaction to my and acryon's suspicions. Constantine due to how he's trying to use his being right today, and of how incredibly sure he was about Victor without being able to explain why. Newbie, well, I explained that in twilight and I'll explain it again once this thread calms down.

Therefore, if I had to call the scumteam, it'd be one of {Constantine, Riddleton, Wisdom}, and one of {NM, Newbie, maaaaybe Finn/bork}.

^
Yeah. That's why I'm completely confused. Nobody counterclaimed Wisdom when he showed that he understood what TTH was talking about, so I figured TTH was probably right about Wisdom as a mason. If he knew he wasn't a mason, I wonder he didn't deny it...

vote: Wisdom

Also, that hint Malakittens left during twilight completely went over my head.

Newbie confirmed town.
[...]
I'll do the PoE myself. Mala, bork, NM, confirmed town. Leaves Wisdom, BMWS, acryon, Riddleton, Constantine, Newbie, wgeurts.
wgeurts is confirmed town due to interactions. If he was scum all along I'm giving him a goddamn medal.
BMWS extremely sure town.
There's scum in {Wisdom, Constantine, Riddleton}, but like I said, it doesn't make too much sense to push a lynch away from your partner and onto another partner. That said, it's still a viable play, and I'll look over interactions tomorrow to see if we can get anything out of this.
If there's not 2 scum in the above and Wisdom flips town, Newbie is scum.
If there's STILL not 2 scum found, it's acryon.

Newbie - conftown because she unvoted Wisdom thinking he was a mason

And you guys are voting me for having been wrong. I've totally called the scum on multiple occasions, if only by PoE and pre-flip associations that no one listened to

Point is, my Newbie townread has never had a reason other than gut and the TTH interaction.
So BMWS, the answer to your question is no. There's really nothing that's made Newbie town according to D1 and D2 me.

[Newbie]

Why would it matter if I made a case against acryon if you guys looked through his ISO and determined he's town from it? You'll just disregard 99% of my case. Also, why would it matter since I'm not changing my vote from BMWS? You guys already came to the conclusion that I'm the scummiest so just place your vote.

[Mathdino]

Because BMWS is town and if it's not you, it's acryon.

I believe they came to the conclusion that I'm scummiest, and I've already placed my vote, soooo

[Mathdino]

I find acryon more likely than either Newbie or BMWS to kill Cheetory.

BMWS, I rescind the hammer request. Need to think about this.

Newbie, if you think I'm town, and if you are town, you
need
to
stop
tunneling
BMWS
now.

He is NOT scum. He wouldn't kill Cheetory. He wouldn't have gotten all confused about the TTH-Wisdom interaction. He wouldn't have opened today with a null case on acryon after saying he wanted him lynched.
You need to trust me on this.
Just stop it.

[acryon]

Acryon: whenever you get back, please give your thoughts and lynch order.

I've already commented that I don't think giving out a lynch order is good for town.

I also don't feel comfortable just blindly agreeing to lynching someone tomorrow if MD flips town. I do think there is a much greater chance that Newbie is scum than BMWS, but I also don't like the idea of locking myself into something like that, because every flip (MD, although not so much Bork since he is conf), provides information. I'm not going to speculate on what that information is, because I still think MD is likely scum, but I think we are at a point in the game where certain ideas for the future are better left closer to the chest. If scum knows exactly where my head is at, it's a lot easier to gear arguments toward or away from it. If they don't, it's a lot easier for scum to slip up trying to figure that out.

[borkjerfkin]

I also don't feel comfortable just blindly agreeing to lynching someone tomorrow if MD flips town.

Good!

[Newbie]

You know what. Screw it.

VOTE: acryon

If he's scum, good, and if he's not, then it's obviously bmws and we're screwed anyway because I'm going to be the next one voted off.

[borkjerfkin]

Yeah it totes couldn't be md in a million years

[Newbie]

Well, it's up to bmws at this point to hammer md.

[Mathdino]

I've already commented that I don't think giving out a lynch order is good for town.

I also don't feel comfortable just blindly agreeing to lynching someone tomorrow if MD flips town. I do think there is a much greater chance that Newbie is scum than BMWS, but I also don't like the idea of locking myself into something like that, because every flip (MD, although not so much Bork since he is conf), provides information. I'm not going to speculate on what that information is, because I still think MD is likely scum, but I think we are at a point in the game where certain ideas for the future are better left closer to the chest. If scum knows exactly where my head is at, it's a lot easier to gear arguments toward or away from it. If they don't, it's a lot easier for scum to slip up trying to figure that out.

This is terrible.

1. We know who's going to be in LyLo tomorrow assuming scum don't get all cheeky and leave bork alive again. No point in not discussing it now.
2. How does my flip give you ANY info? If I'm scum, then you win. If I'm town, then you're in LyLo. Flips give nothing if there's only 1 scum left.
3. What is scum going to do knowing who you want to lynch? What are they seriously going to do? If you notice them

trying

to do anything, then you have your scum.

bork, do the same thing to me that I did to Wisdom at the end of D2. It's the smart way to progress. I'm getting lynched today. That's a given. Now reason with me as if I were town because someone's gonna have to get lynched tomorrow.

[borkjerfkin]

I want you to sell the hell out of bmws town.

[Mathdino]

I already did. Next question.

[borkjerfkin]

I already know where you stand on everything so *shrug*

Honestly I want more involvement from other slots. Esp. Bmws

It is weird that I cannot come close to a consensus on reads with newbie.

[acryon]

I've already commented that I don't think giving out a lynch order is good for town.

I also don't feel comfortable just blindly agreeing to lynching someone tomorrow if MD flips town. I do think there is a much greater chance that Newbie is scum than BMWS, but I also don't like the idea of locking myself into something like that, because every flip (MD, although not so much Bork since he is conf), provides information. I'm not going to speculate on what that information is, because I still think MD is likely scum, but I think we are at a point in the game where certain ideas for the future are better left closer to the chest. If scum knows exactly where my head is at, it's a lot easier to gear arguments toward or away from it. If they don't, it's a lot easier for scum to slip up trying to figure that out.

This is terrible.

1. We know who's going to be in LyLo tomorrow assuming scum don't get all cheeky and leave bork alive again. No point in not discussing it now.
2. How does my flip give you ANY info? If I'm scum, then you win. If I'm town, then you're in LyLo. Flips give nothing if there's only 1 scum left.
3. What is scum going to do knowing who you want to lynch? What are they seriously going to do? If you notice them

trying

to do anything, then you have your scum.

bork, do the same thing to me that I did to Wisdom at the end of D2. It's the smart way to progress. I'm getting lynched today. That's a given. Now reason with me as if I were town because someone's gonna have to get lynched tomorrow.

1. The point in not discussing it now is that we are trying to find scum today, not tomorrow. See point 3 for more on this.
2. But certainly the fact that you are town changes my current views on Newbie/BMWS. And I'm not going to do hypothetical scum-hunting, because it's a waste of my time and resources. I'd rather get scum today; I don't think that's crazy.
3. I'm sorry but the whole point of the game is scum doing things and town trying to notice them doing it. So saying "If you notice them

trying

to do anything, then you have your scum" like it is a simply thing is a bit ridiculous. And how does the information of who I want to lynch in LyLo

not

give scum huge pieces of information. It certainly affects their NK, as well as the direction of their play tomorrow. I think that divulging that information today helps scum a lot more than it helps town.

[Mathdino]

oh for the

1. Someone's going to die tomorrow, so if we don't have a plan I'm not going down without a fight.
2. how is it
are you even
So what you're telling me is in order for you to consider the possibility of my being town, both me AND whoever gets shot have to die. You've got to be kidding me. So how are your time and resources best spent now then? Waiting around for the deadline to come and sheeping bork because you can't trust yourself? I'd rather get scum today too, acryon, but that's not going to happen unless you quit your sheeping. If you plan on lynching me today, that's going to happen. So you need to treat me like I'm dead town for the remaining 4 days until the deadline so we can talk about D4.
3. Dude, if they don't kill bork, then bork's gonna be the arbiter and scum give themselves a much lesser chance of winning. And how is the direction of their play going to do anything? 4 townies are better at discussion and scumhunting than 2 townies, and we're far better off deciding LyLo now rather than after 2 people are dead.

You have no idea how hard it was articulating how inane that post is.

[acryon]

oh for the

1. Someone's going to die tomorrow, so if we don't have a plan I'm not going down without a fight.
2. how is it
are you even
So what you're telling me is in order for you to consider the possibility of my being town, both me AND whoever gets shot have to die. You've got to be kidding me. So how are your time and resources best spent now then? Waiting around for the deadline to come and sheeping bork because you can't trust yourself? I'd rather get scum today too, acryon, but that's not going to happen unless you quit your sheeping. If you plan on lynching me today, that's going to happen. So you need to treat me like I'm dead town for the remaining 4 days until the deadline so we can talk about D4.
3. Dude, if they don't kill bork, then bork's gonna be the arbiter and scum give themselves a much lesser chance of winning. And how is the direction of their play going to do anything? 4 townies are better at discussion and scumhunting than 2 townies, and we're far better off deciding LyLo now rather than after 2 people are dead.

You have no idea how hard it was articulating how inane that post is.

We are obviously in great disagreement here and I don't know how that gap is going to be closed. I think you are wrong on this. I will concede that point 1 makes sense from your standpoint, because you won't be around tomorrow for it. So I think you (if someone give some intent to lynch) and if anyone else, Bork would be fine candidates for presenting your reads based on the remaining 3 players, but I still stand by the idea that having information on where the living town's heads are at before it even gets there is bad for us.

[Mathdino]

holy shit
nothing else is going to happen today

The way this gap is going to be closed is with me getting hammered, acryon.

Nothing

is going to change between now and tomorrow other than 2 townies dying.

Nothing.

Scum has no one to talk to, they've had enough time to regroup and make plans, all that scum can do between now and then is the NK and they'd have to be friggin idiotic to not kill bork because if they don't, if bork uses his mind he's got a greater than 50% chance of catching them.

Yes it goddamn makes sense from my standpoint. If you were going to die would you be sticking your head in the sand?

[Mathdino]

How is there

ANY

town motivation in choosing to withhold your reads for tomorrow until after 2 of your audience members die and are rendered unable to respond to it?