Open 573: C9++

[Jingle]

Vote Count 5.1

Heartless (1): Aneninen
Nero Cain (1): sthar8
Aneninen (0):
ArcAngel9 (0):
sthar8 (0):
davesaz (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (4): ArcAngel9, Nero Cain, Heartless, davesaz

With 6 alive, it is 4 to Lynch or No Lynch.

It is now Day 5. Deadline is in (expired on 2014-12-03 00:00:00) on Wednesday, December 3rd at 12:00 AM PST.

@Dead People- You're all dayvigs and Jingle's an idiot.

Spoilers.

[Nero Cain]

^
OMGUS!

I'd love to hear how you are "confirmed"? You are also incredibly mistaken if you think that prod doge crap you did yesterday was pro-town play.

Also, I'm the only one to find scum this game.

just to clarify, this was directed at Sthar and not Anen.

[Heartless]

Also, as a Hydra, you should have synchronized your heads' reads by now. Oh My Gods, it's Day5! I think you're trying to hint that I'm lying and faking.

are you a sporting man, anen? i have a proposition for you (and no, it's not the kind of "propositions" sthar approaches TTH with...)

first off, let's cut through the bullshit

i know you're the SK
and i think your attempts at mafia hunting are pretty genuine, though you're very badly mistaken (you really think mollie's interactions w/ tth is scum/scum?)

otherwise, i think you've been playing a pretty good game so far.

i also know aa9 is the remaining mafia. (grey and mollie bussed when it didn't matter, didn't bus when it did. brian was also really chummy w/ mollie.) i would be willing to bet the game on this.

so i'll tell you what i'm going to do
i'm going to vote aa9 and if she doesn't flip scum, i will self-vote tomorrow.

if i'm wrong, you have 2 free mislynches (and at least a really good chance of us absorbing your rival's kill)
if i'm right, you will have eliminated your rival, will be able to nightkill us, and have a free ticket to lylo with a decent chance of winning (since you seem to have davesaz sufficiently snowed)

either way, you benefit

how about it?
VOTE: aa9

[davesaz]

I also agree with the AA9 slot as likely scum, would have gone there yesterday if Nero weren't so confident on Massive. The slot fits the activity profile and I didn't see uber town coming from either replacement.

VOTE: AA9

[Nero Cain]

Why would doing a No Lynch be good?
The worst possible outcome is 1:1:1 and that can still be won because it would be a prisoner's dilemma for the scum factions. BUT, all other outcomes are better. Mind this: unless the mafia and the SK agreed somehow to go for a draw, they should get rid of each other – via lynch or kill – although I don't understand why it is not happening.

'cause they play to win the game? Mafia and sk SHOULD try to shoot at each other tonight. In fact, its a decent possibility that scum know who the sk is and will this kill them tonight to improve their chances of winning. If we end up mislynching today then the game is over for the town.

[Nero Cain]

Night1 – Killed: TSO – Blocked: Wgeurts
Night2 – Killed: 50Shades – Blocked: DeathStare
Night3 – Killed: MTD – Blocked: Davesaz (by MonkeyMan) – Failed to Block: Sthar (by Davesaz, because of MonkeyMan)
Night4 – Killed: MonkeyMan – Blocked: unknown (MonkeyMan's ISO gave me no information about it either.)

lets assume that sthar is the sk....

double kills TSO
kills 50
double kills MTD
double kills monkey/is blocked.

I'm not really getting how its "impossible" for him to be an sk based on the night actions.

[davesaz]

Why would doing a No Lynch be good?
The worst possible outcome is 1:1:1 and that can still be won because it would be a prisoner's dilemma for the scum factions. BUT, all other outcomes are better. Mind this: unless the mafia and the SK agreed somehow to go for a draw, they should get rid of each other – via lynch or kill – although I don't understand why it is not happening.

'cause they play to win the game? Mafia and sk SHOULD try to shoot at each other tonight. In fact, its a decent possibility that scum know who the sk is and will this kill them tonight to improve their chances of winning. If we end up mislynching today then the game is over for the town.

Whether they try to kill each other tonight or not, if they fail I'm pretty sure the 1-1-1 situation is lost for town no matter what happens.

[davesaz]

That's unclear, rephrase:

If there is a mislynch, and mafia/sk take out different townies, then it's a 1-1-1 which I think is unwinnable for town.

[Aneninen]

@Heartless.

Spoiler:

POOOOOOOOOOOOOP!

What the f-ck was that post (1082) about?!
To tell the truth, I was unable to understand at least the half of that post, but I DID understand these things:
– no town would EVER self-vote. In a situation like this no scum would EVER self-vote. You're simply lying.
– if you THOUGHT that I am the SK you would Nightkill (or would have Nightkilled) me as Mafia or would at least TRY to lynch me (regardless of your alignment). Why the f-ck are you voting for ArcAngel then?
– I'm telling you all why: because my case about ArcAngel was right and you want me to sheep you with my vote. So, she's indeed the SK

and Heartless, you f-cking know that for sure because you're the mafia!

Let me guess what might come Tomorrow after ArcAngel's flip. You Nightkill someone (most probably Davesaz) and start advocating "wow, Aneninen is scum and he got us to lynch ArcAngel"! Perfect plan, eh? SK is lynched Today, mislynch is ready for Tomorrow. Thanks, but NO.

________

lets assume that sthar is the sk....
double kills TSO
kills 50
double kills MTD
double kills monkey/is blocked.
I'm not really getting how its "impossible" for him to be an sk based on the night actions.

Yes, that might have happened but your version assumes 2 double Kills (on 2 not-so-obvious targets) and one more double Kill or a block.
I have other reasons for assuming that Sthar is not the SK. Though, there's a caveat for my thoughts (see below!), right now I'm almost sure that ArcAngel is the SK and Heartless is the Mafia.
What's your opinion about the thing I posted above in this post?

________

@Nero, Davesaz. I don't understand your speculation at all. Why a 1:1:1 is an auto-loss for town? Are we at MyLo? I don't think so because what if there's a crosskill Tonight? Is a No Lynch better?
To tell the truth, I thought that Sthar can't be the SK because I thought that he was trying to set a trap for the Mafia (so as to force them to follow a bad gameplay). If the remaining mafia followed his suggestion the SK would die. (Why would a townie explain the GOOD strategy for the scum?!) But what if I misunderstood his posts too?

I'm afraid that I'm simply too dumb to understand the situation. Care to explain the answers for those questions above? Of course, do so only if it doesn't help any of the scums! (If there's no explanation, I'll try to understand the things by myself and start hoping that I won't be here Tomorrow...)

[Aneninen]

That's unclear, rephrase:
If there is a mislynch, and mafia/sk take out different townies, then it's a 1-1-1 which I think is unwinnable for town.

I must have missed this. But still, why is an 1:1:1 unwinnable? Also, the two scums can't talk out which one of them kills which one of us – this seems to be a Dilemma. But Sthar posted earlier that it's not a Dilemma. Frankly, I feel like an idiot although I haven't even drunk the dose of wine that I must drink every night...

[Heartless]

– no town would EVER self-vote. In a situation like this no scum would EVER self-vote. You're simply lying.

oh come on. don't tell me you don't remember our first game.

– if you THOUGHT that I am the SK you would Nightkill (or would have Nightkilled) me as Mafia or would at least TRY to lynch me (regardless of your alignment). Why the f-ck are you voting for ArcAngel then?

you know, when someone hands you a gift, a "thank you" usually follows.

I'm afraid that I'm simply too dumb to understand the situation.

repeat it enough times and people think it's true. master stroke.

I'm telling you all why: because my case about ArcAngel was right and you want me to sheep you with my vote. So, she's indeed the SK and Heartless, you f-cking know that for sure because you're the mafia! Let me guess what might come Tomorrow after ArcAngel's flip. You Nightkill someone (most probably Davesaz) and start advocating "wow, Aneninen is scum and he got us to lynch ArcAngel"! Perfect plan, eh? SK is lynched Today, mislynch is ready for Tomorrow. Thanks, but NO.

mmmmmmmm i don't think brian killed mollie n2. so no, aa9's not the sk.
and once aa9 flips scum, your towncred will still be completely intact so there's really no need to worry about it (b/c lolz multiball). it'll be your game to lose at that point.

[Heartless]

sthar
nero

get your fists out of your asses

neither of you are scum by (anti)associative with mollie
i don't think sthar would pick fights with mollie and tth like he has as sk
rereading nero's d1 activity doesn't look like someone trying to dodge nightkills

anen's probably not mafia either. i think he just lucked into being mollie and nacho's whiteknight for towncred target.

that leaves the aa9 slot, which makes sense given that grayfoxx was a scumbutt and brian stuck to mollie pretty well

ALSO CHECK THIS OUT

for everyone's favorite "sk bp-got-popped" theory, there's this:

who's the ONLY VOTE the aa9 slot has made since the massclaim?
guess.
here's a spoiler:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Aneninen

Your ISO is full of over-explanation, absolving responsibility for your reads, and a lot of do-nothing busywork.

this isn't brain surgery
they popped anen's bp n2 and majiffy put 2 and 2 together after he saw the claimed claims/rb's.
n3 is prob missing a kill because they stacked the kills or because brian was a lurkaderp and missed the kill.
monkeyman probably stopped a kill last night or they stacked again (b/c aa9 doesn't get risk assessment or hasn't caught up yet so she doesn't really know what's going on)

[davesaz]

1:1:1. If town lynched, mafia/sk draw. If mafia lynched, sk kills town and wins. If sk lynched, mafia kills town and wins. Town cannot win a 1:1:1. This is basic mafia.
It is not mylo, because one of mafia or sk could kill the other, or they could both target the same townie.

I've had more time to think about the no lynch strategy. If town has a reasonably good read on one of the scum factions, then lynching is the correct move. Lynching is also better if the probability of scum night killing conftown is high, because it lowers the chance of the kill eliminating a borderline suspect (which would have made the next day's lynch easier). No lynch is the best strategy if town has low confidence in having ID'd scum and there is no conftown to kill.

[davesaz]

I'm pretty comfortable with lynching AA9. Not really decided on the other yet.

[Nero Cain]

I'm going to post some stuff later but I'm totes ok with flipping AA9 but I'm not exactly sold on Anen sk.

[Aneninen]

– no town would EVER self-vote. In a situation like this no scum would EVER self-vote. You're simply lying.

oh come on. don't tell me you don't remember our first game.

Thanks for making me remember how terrible my gameplay was in Muskoka. You're doing the same thing as Mollie did: trying to convince everyone how stupid my gameplay is. Did you make up this plan together at Pre-game? As far as I can remember you did the same on Day1...

you know, when someone hands you a gift, a "thank you" usually follows.

Coo-coo!

(Get a Pigeon-English dictionary so as to find out what I meant by that, lolololololololol!)

I'm telling you all why: because my case about ArcAngel was right and you want me to sheep you with my vote. So, she's indeed the SK and Heartless, you f-cking know that for sure because you're the mafia! Let me guess what might come Tomorrow after ArcAngel's flip. You Nightkill someone (most probably Davesaz) and start advocating "wow, Aneninen is scum and he got us to lynch ArcAngel"! Perfect plan, eh? SK is lynched Today, mislynch is ready for Tomorrow. Thanks, but NO.

mmmmmmmm i don't think brian killed mollie n2. so no, aa9's not the sk.
and once aa9 flips scum, your towncred will still be completely intact so there's really no need to worry about it (b/c lolz multiball). it'll be your game to lose at that point.

My answer is the same as the one you quoted. Need I repeat it?

@Everyone! If I'm wrong, please explain me why, because right now I can see no other possibilities than mafia = Heartless; SK = ArcAngel.

________

@Davesaz: as far as I can understand your 1812, No Lynch is not a good idea now.

[Heartless]

Thanks for making me remember how terrible my gameplay was in Muskoka. You're doing the same thing as Mollie did: trying to convince everyone how stupid my gameplay is. Did you make up this plan together at Pre-game? As far as I can remember you did the same on Day1...

no

you

are trying to convince everyone how stupid your gameplay is

and it's worked because you absolutely love the VI image you've built because it's equated with harmlessness (good for dodging nks)

proof:
i was talking about fakegod and his "self-vote tomorrow if your read is wrong" shtick. that's what we were talking about. obvious.
but you reached in a pulled out "ANTI'Z ZO MEAN AND PICKING ON ME HEZ SAYING I SO SUCKZORZ"
it's to your advantage and you know it and you're wallowing in it at every chance you get

[Heartless]

@Everyone! If I'm wrong, please explain me why, because right now I can see no other possibilities than mafia = Heartless; SK = ArcAngel.

explanation:

if i knew aa9 was the sk, i don't think we would have had much trouble getting the brian slot lynched. i also would have had 2 nights to kill her (which i would have done because i understand basic mafia theory and in multiball, other kills=bad).

the only slot with a consistent vote on another slot SINCE THE MASSCLAIM (when all the info was out there) was majiffy's vote on you / aa9's leaving the vote on you. she didn't do much to solidify the vote, but then again she hasn't really shown she's up with things. everyone else has been moving around their vote, not indicative of "holy shit i have to get this opposite team lynched". so that narrows it down.

[Heartless]

spoon feeding time (putting aside nero's tinfoil theory):

>the scumteam popped the SK's bp on night 2. that's a certainty because mafia didn't kill themselves and the rb's didn't stop anything and mollie/nacho was active enough not to miss the kill.
>the last scum would have known who the sk was THE SECOND THE MASSCLAIM ENDED
>nero cain, sthar, Anen, and us have been keeping up with the thread enough to know all this and would have known who the SK was if they were mafia
>THE ONLY SLOT that's in limbo is the greyfoxx slot because of the sheer volume of occupants / not catching up
(hint: the one who i think caught on was majiffy and he was no scrub)

and no one else was frantically trying to stop that massive lynch from going through and the only one not voting it/showing no interest in voting it was majiffy

[Heartless]

sthar

nero

get your asses in here

you berate us for losing interest and i show up with the solution to the game and you go quiet

[Jingle]

Prodding ArcAngel9.

[ArcAngel9]

Sorry mod. Prod received.
I am not scum. So please keep your votes off from me. And heartless should die today. He is scum

Heartless

[Heartless]

Judging by AA9 and Anen's reactions alone, I'm thinking there's a good chance Anti's on the right track.

-TTH

[Heartless]

>the scumteam popped the SK's bp on night 2. that's a certainty because mafia didn't kill themselves and the rb's didn't stop anything and mollie/nacho was active enough not to miss the kill.
>the last scum would have known who the sk was THE SECOND THE MASSCLAIM ENDED

I think these are good premises to start with.

Nero Cain had his vote on massive the entire day. Given massive's non-SK flip, I would agree that it doesn't seem characteristic of someone who is gunning for the SK. MonkeyMan and dave are claimed power roles. MonkeyMan has since died and dave is more or less confirmed due to the set-up and other claims. Anen's vote was mobile: he first voted for Majiffy in post 1716 and then agreed to a massive lynch in post 1763 without much fuss.

That means the mafia is probably off the massive wagon.

sthar was laid back all of Day 4 and actually didn't cast a vote at all. It's a bit of a moot point since his and mollie's earlier arguments make me doubt very seriously he's mafia, but I would think sthar as scum would try to do

something

. There's also the point sthar made himself about cross-killing the SK. If sthar really was mafia, I would think we'd have seen an SK flip to start the day.

For that matter, if

anyone

keeping up with the thread was mafia, I would think we'd have seen an SK flip to start the day. That could be explained by MonkeyMan's roleblock succeeding, but that still doesn't explain the problem of the low-resistance massive wagon. If the mafia goon was going to do as sthar said and save killing the SK for the night, they would have to be pretty confident in not drawing the kill from the SK. I don't think anyone here fits that profile given that everyone other than the claimed roleblockers is under their fair share of suspicion.

sthar, Nero, do you have anything to say about the methodology here? I'm coming to the same conclusions as Antihero.

-TTH

[Jingle]

Bump