Open 573: C9++

[The Fonz]

Meta Stuff - ArcAngel seems similarly abusive towards her accusers in Mini 1425 as she did in that newbie game, and pretty bad in NY161 too. So this thing of 'deflect with anger, don't bring any arguments' doesn't seem to be a towntell, as I was worried. I'm comfortable with the vote now. Writing up my questions for TTH now.

[ArcAngel9]

All scum would pull a crap like that ^^
that doesnt make me scum. But it will make you derp or sure scum.

[The Fonz]

UNVOTE:

Moment of Clarity

So, I haven't had any sleep for the last 37 hours, but as I was laying in bed a second ago, something just occurred to me. I've been looking at all the wrong people.

massive isn't scum.

(And I don't think 50 Shades is either.)

And he's not scum for a few reasons. One is that there's a notable lack of a counterwagon or any real competing suspects/wagons today. The other is the stark contrast between what happened with the massive wagon yesterday and today. Yesterday, it never really got off the ground; the only people that really bought into it were Anti and Nero Cain. Now all sorts of people are crawling out of the woodwork to vote massive and he's already gotten to 5 votes

in only 6 pages and 4 realtime days

with no competing counterwagons

. There also hasn't been a change in the case on massive, other than perhaps the premature VT claim, but I don't think that's scummy anyway. It

has

to make you wonder.

There

is

an explanation for the day's occurrences.

MTD, wgeurts, and sthar8 are scum.

I already knew I had early concerns about wgeurts but I tabled them because he never seemed to be on Anti's radar for scum. He's scummy, though. Say what you want about

any

of his other behavior in this game, but this post (Post 1156) is scum. It's pretty much an objective summary of massive's play this game with sparse references. None of it even

looks

right; some of the sentences ("He then starts using the "you have no reason to vote me" argument which is also (IMO) horribly scummy.") have this dangling reason that doesn't lead to the stated conclusoin. Overall, it's incredibly shoehorned and awkward and notably lacks any kind of thread of logic leading up to a satisfying conclusion of "massive is scum." It looks exactly like he cobbled something together in response to the criticism of his earlier vote being opportunistic. (On a side-note, I have no idea why he chose to spoiler it since it's a very manageable length anyway.)

I had confidence in sthar leading up to this point, but after little thought, I really don't have any reason to be. The massive push today is based on a lot of faulty arguments. He also hasn't been engaging us (especially Antihero) on Day 1, which is weird since he's been townreading us this whole time and we never seem to have been in sync reads-wise. That seems odd, considering how Chosen went. sthar being scum would also explain how the massive wagon took off as quickly as it did (as I already explained in the opening paragraph).

That's two scum on the wagon. I don't think 50 Shades or Nero are scum, so there's probably another off the wagon.

My bet's on MTD. There's ostensible criticism of the massive wagon, but nothing really substantial is really delineated in the thread in terms of that townread, which is odd considering that the size of the wagon. There's also a noticeable lack of a vote or an attempt to start a competing wagon so I'm guessing he's more than happy to just let this massive wagon roll along. This dichotomy he recently presented (Anen or wgeurts) is completely nonsensical and Anen is likely town anyway. Looking back at Day 1 activity, there's really nothing that inspires confidence.

There's only a couple flaws with this theory. One is that it could fall apart if there are only 2 mafia or a serial killer. I'm guessing that the presence of only one kill on Night 1 is a likely indicator that there's only one scum faction, though. And if Jingle really did randomize the setup, the likelihood of 2 T's or 4 T's being generated is much higher than 6 T's. (For there to be 6 T's, Jingle would have to get 6/7 numbers between 1-100 that fall between 1 and 50. Someone who has the time and/or inclination to do so can run a statistical significance test.) The other flaw is that it doesn't really give a satisfying explanation for why TSO was killed on Night 1. I'll see what Antihero thinks about all this. Right now, though, I have to get some sleep because I feel like I'm about to pass out at my computer.

VOTE: sthar8

-TTH

So let's talk about this in a bit more detail, TTH. Now, you're of course correct that you weren't claiming to read 50SOP as town throughout. Anti was, though. Your hydra is dissonant for most of D2. This is annoying but happens. I have a couple of problems here. Namely:

1) You seem to be voting Wgeurts for bad logic. wgeurts very much does not seem the kind of player where bad logic is a scumtell.
2) You try to call the entire scumteam in one go. This seems overconfident at best, and out-of-keeping with your previous play. I'm also not sure how sthar= scum would have done

anything

to explain the rapid growth of the wagon, apart from the bare fact of the vote itself. Unless your argument was along the lines of 'shitty scum wgeurts follows his partner sthar8' which begs the question. Seems to me the most obvious explanation for that trend was 'People were frustrated at the no-lynch, and felt that Massive was scum who wriggled off the hook because his buddies weren't willing to vote him.'

Could you explain the internal hydra discussions? I have this nagging fear that the 'sudden realisation' was just a rationalisation to allow you to push Anti's crapwagon and render yourselves consistent. Did he convince you of anything? Did you convince him? You said consistently up until this post that you suspected 50, but it's never clear why. The charitable assumption is that Anti wouldn't let you because he disagreed, and you were having it out behind the scenes. The uncharitable explanation is probably obvious.

You (well, anti) subsequently vote for massive which also kinda rings alarm bells, since your 'realisation' depended on Massive = town. Did you change your mind, or did anti do it without consulting him? Was there any internal dissent from you?

Also gonna have a quick think about night results.

[The Fonz]

All scum would pull a crap like that ^^
that doesnt make me scum. But it will make you derp or sure scum.

Why? You have no argument for this. You're just assuming that only scum could

possibly

vote for you. This doesn't deal with the actual criticisms of your predecessors or inductions from night actions that led me, and ostensibly Heartless, to suspect you. Is it your claim that you or any of your predecessors has done anything blindingly obvtown?

[The Fonz]

OK, key no-kill thing: Brian Skies was absent N1. His last post is on the 30th September, declares V/LA until the 10th, but since he never returns, we can assume his absence that night. (I am sure someone else has brought this up, but I don't remember reading it anywhere).

N3, I can

totally

see both antitown factions shooting the strongest town PR. I don't think we need conspiracy theories here.

[The Fonz]

All scum would pull a crap like that ^^
that doesnt make me scum. But it will make you derp or sure scum.

No, you're missing the point.

Some players only get really angry as town. I saw you'd turned into an asshat like this as town, so wanted to assure myself it wasn't a thing you habitually did as town and not as scum.

Finding multiple examples of doing it as scum removed my last reservation about lynching you.


Et tu, Nero?

[The Fonz]

*when I said Brian, I meant Foxx.

[Nero Cain]

Et tu, Nero?

si?

[Aneninen]

So,
I really don't want to throw the monkey wrench into the conversation, especially since there

is

a conversation right now. (Even if I have merely looked into the thread, after 12 hours of work I can't be too constructive. Or at least, I can post nothing new, my scumreads are still the same.)
But, the Deadline is coming. So, I'll be here around Deadline (in the morning for me) and I'll hammer ArcAngel if nothing happens until then. If that's a bad idea (because I don't-know, someone scumslips or something strange happens or whatever), please bold your message for me not to do that. I really don't want to f-ck up the game for everyone just because I have too much work. Thanks!

[The Fonz]

Anen, we're all aware of deadline. Thanks for telling us you don't want to screw the town, though.

@Nero - vote AA9 or work out what issue it is you want resolved before you can.

NL is IMHO bad - 2 kills leaves us on evens, and I'd rather have one fewer 'scummy-looking' town making it harder to cross kill if scum do try. Quite beside the fact I think AA9 is scum. Also, nl is kinda pointless when we have a conftown.

[Nero Cain]

yes, I plan on lynching AA9 but we still have like 9 hours. Why do you want me to hammer now? Why are you so anxious to end the day? Honestly it makes very little sense for you to want me to hammer 'cause you JUST asked TTH a question--do yu not care about her response?

[Jingle]

Vote Count 5.7

ArcAngel9 (3): Heartless, davesaz, The Fonz
Heartless (2): Aneninen, ArcAngel9
Nero Cain (0):
Aneninen (0):
The Fonz (0):
davesaz (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (1): Nero Cain,

With 6 alive, it is 4 to Lynch or No Lynch.

It is now Day 5. Deadline is in (expired on 2014-12-03 00:00:00) on Wednesday, December 3rd at 12:00 AM PST.

[The Fonz]

yes, I plan on lynching AA9 but we still have like 9 hours. Why do you want me to hammer now? Why are you so anxious to end the day? Honestly it makes very little sense for you to want me to hammer 'cause you JUST asked TTH a question--do yu not care about her response?

I don't particularly care about TTH answering

today

, no, because I'm almost certain to be asleep before she does anyway, given timezones. So I'm basically committed to the AA9 lynch. If TTH is alive tomorrow she can answer, if she's not I don't care.

More time is useful if you have specific things you want to do with it. Otherwise all you're doing is posturing. So work out what you want to achieve.

[The Fonz]

@Mod: Voting AA9, not Heartless.

[Jingle]

Whoopsies.

Fixed.

[Nero Cain]

Lets say that TTH is scum, all you are doing is giving her and anti more time to come up with an explanation. I think town would want their question answered.

[The Fonz]

That assumes she will come up with a noticeably better explanation in 48 hours than she can in one, which is silly. There's only so much time a competent player needs.

Noteworthy that you respond to me suggesting you show no real sense of direction by mudslinging at me rather than actually being useful, though - yet sadly unsurprising.

[Nero Cain]

yeah, I think I've been scum reading you and Angel for awhile now but do ad hom me to make yourself feel better.

[Heartless]

Could you explain the internal hydra discussions?

Here's the bottom line. Antihero is friends with pirate mollie and talked up this game before it even started. I could tell he was excited about it, particularly that she was in the game.

Which is what gave me the bad feelings about 50 shades in the first place. If Anti and mollie knew each other so well, why was it that Anti and mollie's dynamic seemed... dysfunctional at best? Nothing ever seemed to be getting done and it felt like anything substantive that Anti had to say (i.e. - the Aneninen read) was minimized or ignored while his bad / not-really-well-thought-out reads were promoted. I tried to get a no-bullshit 50 Shades read from Anti for quite a while and was actually pretty excited at the beginning of Day 2 when he said 50 Shades votes were good. But when he took it back, I immediately felt like we took 2 steps back. It was really frustrating because all in all I felt like: internet crush on mollie + accepting a townread on mollie unquestioningly = Antihero's not listening to a damn thing I have to say. That's why I was so pissed at Anti when mollie finally flipped scum because I felt bitter about not being listened to and made to feel like

I

was the one with bad reads.

To be fair, for our first two games here, he actually did have spot-on reads while I had bad reads. Because of this and the fact Anti's a pretty smart guy in RL, I'm working from the assumption that Anti is a really good mafia player (and I still have no reason to doubt that) and as such, will have strong reads. I never pushed mollie harder because I just felt like Anti probably had better reads than I did, because I felt like I was pissing mollie off with no real proof behind my accusations, and because Anti and mollie already had a history and I didn't really feel like I had any credibility to argue with him.

You try to call the entire scumteam in one go. This seems overconfident at best, and out-of-keeping with your previous play.

Alright, the hub of the entire theory was that

massive didn't have any counterwagons

. I was wondering about that, because at that point, I was still assuming there was just a mafia (because there had only been one kill the night before). With a mafia of two or three members, I figured that there would be some form of resistance to the massive wagon, but there was none. By those indications, I thought the working hypothesis of "massive=scum" was wrong and therefore needed revision.

Yes, it was a house of cards, but

I got the absolute best feeling out of it

. I finally felt like Anti and I were on the same page which was, psychologically, very important to me at that point.

Seems to me the most obvious explanation for that trend was 'People were frustrated at the no-lynch, and felt that Massive was scum who wriggled off the hook because his buddies weren't willing to vote him.'

No, and I've already kind of talked about this. The massive wagon sprung up literally hours before the deadline and the fact he wasn't lynched was more likely due to the fact that

simply not enough users were on at the time to secure a lynch

. Since the whole "wriggling out of a lynch" reasoning didn't stand up to scrutiny, that didn't feel like a good reason to push a default massive lynch.

You (well, anti) subsequently vote for massive which also kinda rings alarm bells, since your 'realisation' depended on Massive = town. Did you change your mind, or did anti do it without consulting him? Was there any internal dissent from you?

The house of cards I built was long destroyed at that point (as was my ego). After wgeurts flipped town, I knew the line of domino's I stacked up were all laying on the floor.

For the internal hydra discussions every day from Day 3, I pretty much let Anti have the wheel since I put together what I thought was a pretty theory that all came crashing down. At that point, I was pissed at Antihero for townreading mollie and Antihero was pissed at me for being pissed at him.

-TTH

[Nero Cain]

vote:aa9

[ArcAngel9]

yes, I plan on lynching AA9 but we still have like 9 hours. Why do you want me to hammer now? Why are you so anxious to end the day? Honestly it makes very little sense for you to want me to hammer 'cause you JUST asked TTH a question--do yu not care about her response?

Well you never believed me anywayz.. So I ll save my energy.
And fuck you town. Go a head and hammer me... Lynch Heartless instantly tomorrow.. No more talking.

And fonz, you may unzip and pee your shit all over... I dont fucking care. If you're town... So be it.. I have my sympathies on you understanding skills. Dont ever mention a word "META" becuz you certainly dont know what it means.

[ArcAngel9]

vote:aa9

I am town Nero. When you going to believe me when i say i am town.. You would have won so many games.. if you had little faith over my meta. I hate playing with you.

[Jingle]

DAY 5 FINAL VOTE COUNT

ArcAngel9 (4): Heartless, davesaz, The Fonz, Nero Cain
Heartless (2): Aneninen, ArcAngel9
Nero Cain (0):
Aneninen (0):
The Fonz (0):
davesaz (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (0):

A Lynch!

It is now Day 5. Deadline is in (expired on 2014-12-05 00:00:00) on Friday, December 5th at 12:00 AM PST.

ArcAngel9 has been Lynched.

She was:

A Vanilla Townie.

Vanilla Townie

Welcome to Open 573, ArcAngel9, you are a

Vanilla Townie

.

Abilities:
Your weapon is your vote, you have no night actions.

Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one town player alive.

If every living player PM's me that they are ready for the night to be over, I will end the night early.

[Jingle]

I want to start

[Jingle]

D6 with a pagetop.