Open 573: C9++

[Heartless]

Are there any obvious flaws in this scenario?

you're leaving out the fact that NONE OF US were realistic lynches at the time. even if anen came at any one of the 3 of us with all the reasoning in the world, he probably wasn't EVER going to get any of us lynched. he omgus'ed because he didn't want tth making him look weak. i mean, what you're guessing here is that he poked the beehive and then... what... sat around for 2 nights waiting to get wrecked? there might be auniverse where that makes sense, but this one is not it.

and he wasn't planning on jauntily skipping into prisoner's dilemma with us either. TTH has a lot more charisma then he does and would win out in a 1v1.

if he was going to get rid of the sk, the nightkill was the only way he was going to do it.

HE JUST DIDN'T WANT TO DO IT.

because the benefits of keeping the sk w/ shitty reads around outweighed the potential of him getting ko'd.

-antihero

[Heartless]

so fonz where is this anen scumread of yours past the early stuff? you kind of mentioned it early on in the reread while kinda' sorta' agreeing w/ him re: us, anywhere else?

-antihero

[The Fonz]

1)

fonz are you seriously making the argument that anen would let us live after these posts if he knew we had a kill? to go after fucking davesaz?

2

why didn't you care about my version of the story for the hydra dynamics?

-antihero

1. Yes, I see that as entirely plausible. There is nothing super-threatening to Anen in those posts. I half wondered if you'd linked the wrong posts. 1642 is "He may be scum, he may not be."

2. Why should I care? It's TTH's thought process, and the impact you had on it, that I was particularly interested in, and which I thought would give me insight into your alignment.

And this post is also giving me a 'Slinging mud' vibe. If you are town, this is not exactly helping persuade me of that.

so fonz where is this anen scumread of yours past the early stuff? you kind of mentioned it early on in the reread while kinda' sorta' agreeing w/ him re: us, anywhere else?

-antihero

TTH - this afternoon.

Nero - still AA9. I'm just doing a fuckton of due diligence, because it is very discomfiting to be suspecting the worst player as my top suspect and the second-worst second. I just found a town AA9 game where she reacts just like this - Newbie 1371 (You'd think she'd have improved in the last 18 months, but apparently not). Now going to comb scum games.

Here, 'The second-worst player' is (clearly) referring to Aneninen.

Looks like there is a fairly obvious choice here, and I am strongly leaning to voting AA9. Anen/ArcAngel, please explain relatively concisely why I'm wrong to think you are the two antitowns. Dave, could you explain similarly why

you

are voting AA9. I know why Heartless is. I will continue to read with focus on those two slots.

Here again, I state clearly that I think the two non-town players are AA9 and Anen. I am obviously voting for AA9 over Anen, because the way the day is setup - two person wagons on AA9 and you - calls for me to make a choice between those two players, so given my scum read on AA9 and my town read on you, I'm happy enough to vote AA9.

[The Fonz]

Are there any obvious flaws in this scenario?

you're leaving out the fact that NONE OF US were realistic lynches at the time. even if anen came at any one of the 3 of us with all the reasoning in the world, he probably wasn't EVER going to get any of us lynched. he omgus'ed because he didn't want tth making him look weak. i mean, what you're guessing here is that he poked the beehive and then... what... sat around for 2 nights waiting to get wrecked? there might be auniverse where that makes sense, but this one is not it.

I can see him valuing a dead RB over you, preferring to try to get you lynched during the day, sure. (Or he tried to kill the SK and monkey blocked it. That's not impossible, though last night suggests it's more likely that Anen at least tried to shoot the PR, because there were much better arguments for taking out monkey than taking out Dave, and he still chose to kill Dave). You were the only player other than AA9 to get votes yesterday. Yes, I am aware that the other player who voted you is dead. It's also worth noting that the theory you used to suspect Anen was shot to pieces with the AA9 townflip. It's not impossible you reconsider in those circumstances.

The other thing is that I feel like TTH's MTD read was probably genuine, and that explains the MTD kill much better than anything in Nero's ISO.

and he wasn't planning on jauntily skipping into prisoner's dilemma with us either. TTH has a lot more charisma then he does and would win out in a 1v1.

if he was going to get rid of the sk, the nightkill was the only way he was going to do it.

HE JUST DIDN'T WANT TO DO IT.

because the benefits of keeping the sk w/ shitty reads around outweighed the potential of him getting ko'd.

-antihero

So let's be clear here. You are claiming that (I guess, you are claiming that I should believe that...) Nero was kept around as SK because of his shitty reads (Sthar, AA9 suspicions). In that case, he's banking on Nero shooting me overnight (or hoping that Nero also shoots Dave) and then choosing you over him in a post-NL shootout, while he knows he's going to shoot straight.

Hmmm.

Damn. That is somewhat plausible.

[Heartless]

1. Yes, I see that as entirely plausible. There is nothing super-threatening to Anen in those posts. I half wondered if you'd linked the wrong posts. 1642 is "He may be scum, he may not be."

...that progressed to, "mollie is sabotaging anti's only good read, anen is scum" when the reread was finished.
lynches are pretty predictable and nightkills really aren't. if you're anen and someone with a gun is saying "i suspect you" you're saying you would leave them around?

2. Why should I care? It's TTH's thought process, and the impact you had on it, that I was particularly interested in, and which I thought would give me insight into your alignment.

And this post is also giving me a 'Slinging mud' vibe. If you are town, this is not exactly helping persuade me of that.

just in general i'm asking why you're only talking to that head of the hydra. that's what i'm wanting out of you because i want to know.

if you think she's smarter than i am, then it is what is it. just say what it is, though. i can take it. (it won't be the first time i heard it either)

I can see him valuing a dead RB over you, preferring to try to get you lynched during the day, sure. (Or he tried to kill the SK and monkey blocked it. That's not impossible, though last night suggests it's more likely that Anen at least tried to shoot the PR, because there were much better arguments for taking out monkey than taking out Dave, and he still chose to kill Dave). You were the only player other than AA9 to get votes yesterday. Yes, I am aware that the other player who voted you is dead. It's also worth noting that the theory you used to suspect Anen was shot to pieces with the AA9 townflip. It's not impossible you reconsider in those circumstances.

he could try all he wanted. he still needed the votes from sthar AND nero that he likely wasn't going to get (esp sthar). in the meantime, he would've had to be DAMN SURE that he could dodge the kill because once he started, there was no putting the genie back in the bottle.

The other thing is that I feel like TTH's MTD read was probably genuine, and that explains the MTD kill much better than anything in Nero's ISO.

b/c TTH would get a HUGE part of the theory she made TO GET MY APPROVAL wrong and then turn around and say "lol let's keep going with it" after she couldn't give less than a shit about my approval and i'd already been proven to have had a bad read in mollie

i thought you said you thought she was logical.

So let's be clear here. You are claiming that (I guess, you are claiming that I should believe that...) Nero was kept around as SK because of his shitty reads (Sthar, AA9 suspicions). In that case, he's banking on Nero shooting me overnight (or hoping that Nero also shoots Dave) and then choosing you over him in a post-NL shootout, while he knows he's going to shoot straight.

you were scumreading each other's slots. if Anen knew we were SK, he COULDN'T have thought he was safe from the bullet because tth and i both thought (i actually said it out loud too) that sthar and nero weren't mollie's buddies. at that point, his only shot would've been to work nero/you's paranoia of our slot (both of you had it) and get rid of the conftown.

i don't know, now that i'm talking through it it makes more sense that anen thought he could talk nero into voting us. fonz didn't actually give any feedback on tth's responses before the day ended yesterday, so it's more unpredictable.

tth, i'm clearly the second fiddle here. what are you thinking?

[The Fonz]

The other thing is that I feel like TTH's MTD read was probably genuine, and that explains the MTD kill much better than anything in Nero's ISO.

b/c TTH would get a HUGE part of the theory she made TO GET MY APPROVAL wrong and then turn around and say "lol let's keep going with it" after she couldn't give less than a shit about my approval and i'd already been proven to have had a bad read in mollie

i thought you said you thought she was logical.

Wait, what? She made it to win your approval? The MTD read stands independent of everything else in that chain of analysis, as I pointed out in my previous answer.

So let's be clear here. You are claiming that (I guess, you are claiming that I should believe that...) Nero was kept around as SK because of his shitty reads (Sthar, AA9 suspicions). In that case, he's banking on Nero shooting me overnight (or hoping that Nero also shoots Dave) and then choosing you over him in a post-NL shootout, while he knows he's going to shoot straight.

you were scumreading each other's slots. if Anen knew we were SK, he COULDN'T have thought he was safe from the bullet because tth and i both thought (i actually said it out loud too) that sthar and nero weren't mollie's buddies. at that point, his only shot would've been to work nero/you's paranoia of our slot (both of you had it) and get rid of the conftown.

i don't know, now that i'm talking through it it makes more sense that anen thought he could talk nero into voting us. fonz didn't actually give any feedback on tth's responses before the day ended yesterday, so it's more unpredictable.

tth, i'm clearly the second fiddle here. what are you thinking?

Who is "you?" If the claim is me/Nero, then that is false, because I didn't scumread Nero yesterday (or at least didn't say out loud that I did). I had a creeping suspicion that Nero was setting me up for today at the end of the day with his #1909 shit, but I mean, Nero's just pretty bad, and I was still expecting AA9 to flip some flavor of scum, and had Anen as more likely scum than Nero. If it's me/Anen, then Anen was claiming to strongly town-read me.

[Heartless]

While crudely written, Anti's point got me to think of something. I need a moment...

-TTH

[Heartless]

Anen's strategy going into the endgame was to utilize a form of Prisoner's dilemma. This is evidenced by the fact he chose to keep the serial killer alive. From Fonz's post, I'm implying that the most likely move the next day would hypothetically be a no-lynch, which seems right given the game theory behind prisoner's dilemma. In order for Anen to win in that situation, he would have to talk the serial killer into shooting a townie.

In that situation, it's a game of probabilities for Anen. Anen obviously didn't plan on being killed, but he thought his best strategy was to bring a townie into endgame he thought the serial killer would turn on.

Therein, we can find the solution. Who did Anen think would shoot a townie instead of him?

-TTH

[Heartless]

She made it to win your approval? The MTD read stands independent of everything else in that chain of analysis, as I pointed out in my previous answer.

I think he's referring to this:

Yes, it was a house of cards, but I got the absolute best feeling out of it. I finally felt like Anti and I were on the same page which was, psychologically, very important to me at that point.

Also, I'm of the school of thought that after a single bad read is revealed

all of them

need to come into question. That's what Anti's referring to.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Who is "you?" If the claim is me/Nero, then that is false, because I didn't scumread Nero yesterday (or at least didn't say out loud that I did). I had a creeping suspicion that Nero was setting me up for today at the end of the day with his #1909 shit, but I mean, Nero's just pretty bad, and I was still expecting AA9 to flip some flavor of scum, and had Anen as more likely scum than Nero. If it's me/Anen, then Anen was claiming to strongly town-read me.

I don't think the paranoia you had for Nero would've been bankable. However, I did get the feeling that your bad feelings about me yesterday led you to the conclusion I was mafia. This was reinforced by the conclusions given in post 1939, specifically the possibilities listed #2 and #3. That's what I suspected the "uncharitable assumption" of post 1902 was.

On the other hand, Nero had paranoia about everyone in the game at that point. In fact, he said he looking for the "two dullest turds in a pile of shit" in post 1845.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Fundamentally, Fonz's suspicions are a lot more refined and specific. Nero's are a lot more general. I'm not sure what details mattered and which ones didn't, though.

I have to think about this.

-TTH

[The Fonz]

Who is "you?" If the claim is me/Nero, then that is false, because I didn't scumread Nero yesterday (or at least didn't say out loud that I did). I had a creeping suspicion that Nero was setting me up for today at the end of the day with his #1909 shit, but I mean, Nero's just pretty bad, and I was still expecting AA9 to flip some flavor of scum, and had Anen as more likely scum than Nero. If it's me/Anen, then Anen was claiming to strongly town-read me.

I don't think the paranoia you had for Nero would've been bankable. However, I did get the feeling that your bad feelings about me yesterday led you to the conclusion I was mafia. This was reinforced by the conclusions given in post 1939, specifically the possibilities listed #2 and #3. That's what I suspected the "uncharitable assumption" of post 1902 was.

On the other hand, Nero had paranoia about everyone in the game at that point. In fact, he said he looking for the "two dullest turds in a pile of shit" in post 1845.

-TTH

Bad feelings? Meh, you were the only other wagon, I had to at least try to imagine what a case against you, made competently, would look like, before I could reject it.

I probably *should* have had more bad feelings than I did, given we're in this scenario.

Anyway. I've done some thinking.

What I think is the most plausible scenario is that Anen was aiming for the endgame where he admits to being scum, points out that he knows who the SK is, and agrees with the SK to lynch the surviving townie for a joint win. So he kills the conftown, expecting the SK to try to shoot scum. If Anen shoots the SK, he either loses (if the SK shoots him) or is left in an endgame with one of the trio me/you/nero (depending on whether [whichever of you and Nero is SK] pegs me or the other one as the scum) and a conftown. I think it's reasonable that he prefers the guaranteed joint win to his chances of persuading Dave that any of us are scum over him.

This

theory answers Anti's objections to my previous case, that Anen was trying to get rid of you during the daytime, but at night went for the more risk-averse option. This seems the best explanation for why Anen pushed you yesterday - with you-SK lynched, he'd have killed dave overnight and been left with him/me/aa9/nero alive today, and his choice of who to kill to set up the best possible endgame after the inevitable 4p MiLo no-lynch.

The second most plausible theory is that Anen just didn't understand the endgame dynamics, but that would leave open the question of

what

part of them he didn't realise, and leave me fucking nowhere in working out which of you is SK :S .

[TellTaleHeart]

What I think is the most plausible scenario is that Anen was aiming for the endgame where he admits to being scum, points out that he knows who the SK is, and agrees with the SK to lynch the surviving townie for a joint win. So he kills the conftown, expecting the SK to try to shoot scum. If Anen shoots the SK, he either loses (if the SK shoots him) or is left in an endgame with one of the trio me/you/nero (depending on whether [whichever of you and Nero is SK] pegs me or the other one as the scum) and a conftown. I think it's reasonable that he prefers the guaranteed joint win to his chances of persuading Dave that any of us are scum over him.

That's what prisoner's dilemma is about.
Defecting gives the potentially higher reward than cooperation and the catch with cooperation is that you have to be sure the other party doesn't defect. That's why it's called a

dilemma

.

There's a way to answer this, though.

Jingle, in the hypothetical event of an endgame with an SK and mafia, would one win over the other or would a tie be declared?

-TTH

[Jingle]

At 0:1:1 , the game would be ended with a tie for both SK and Mafia.

[TellTaleHeart]

Prisoner's dilemma is still a pretty chancy and delicate situation. That's why there's game shows with that exact premise.

Also, why would Anen play for the tie?

-TTH

[Heartless]

This theory answers Anti's objections to my previous case, that Anen was trying to get rid of you during the daytime, but at night went for the more risk-averse option. This seems the best explanation for why Anen pushed you yesterday - with you-SK lynched, he'd have killed dave overnight and been left with him/me/aa9/nero alive today, and his choice of who to kill to set up the best possible endgame after the inevitable 4p MiLo no-lynch.

still doesn't explain why he would be playing for the win then switch over to playing for the tie at the last second. if he was cool with the tie, he would've seen the writing on the wall and gone "fuck it" and went ahead and lynched aa9. you think he would've antagonized the person with the kill to the bitter end in that situation?

-antihero

[Heartless]

tth, there's another half of the equation you're not looking at: the sk's pov.

the sk already knew that the mafia knew who he was so you should think about how that dynamic plays into it.

-antihero

[The Fonz]

Yeah, I understand PD perfectly well. Thanks for explaining in a super-patronizing manner, though. It's not a PD, because at the point where you know who the other 'player' in the game is, there's no co-operate/defect outcome possible. It's C/C or D/D, and C/C is just obviously better.

He'd play for the tie if he expects to lose in the alternative scenario. (Also, ties between antitown groups are usually considered joint wins).

[The Fonz]

This theory answers Anti's objections to my previous case, that Anen was trying to get rid of you during the daytime, but at night went for the more risk-averse option. This seems the best explanation for why Anen pushed you yesterday - with you-SK lynched, he'd have killed dave overnight and been left with him/me/aa9/nero alive today, and his choice of who to kill to set up the best possible endgame after the inevitable 4p MiLo no-lynch.

still doesn't explain why he would be playing for the win then switch over to playing for the tie at the last second. if he was cool with the tie, he would've seen the writing on the wall and gone "fuck it" and went ahead and lynched aa9. you think he would've antagonized the person with the kill to the bitter end in that situation?

-antihero

That depends on whether he thought 'antagonizing' you further at that point raised the likelihood of you reading him as scum. He may well have considered it a sunk cost at that point - he'd been calling you scum all day. And he did, kinda, say fuck it and vote AA9. He was extremely passive after I replaced in.

Again - if you shoot him last night, he loses either way. So it's rational for him to try to remove your kill during the day, but once that has failed, to switch to the tie strategy, if he prefers basically the certainty of a tie to the likelihood of a loss with a small chance of winning. Also, if he's playing the win strategy then he presumably shoots the SK last night, right? That's a higher percentage play than trying to get through two nights.

[Heartless]

seriously, get the goddamn chip off your shoulder.

she's making the point that anen didn't know if the sk was going to fuck him over or not. you can use whatever tortured euphemism you want, it's still a tie.

-antihero

[Heartless]

go ahead and vote who you think is right tth. if it's nero, we're fucked though because fonz isn't listening to goddamn thing you have to say and insistent that he's right.

doesn't matter, you can still have post-game bragging rights.

-antihero

[Heartless]

nero what are you thinking?

anything...?

nothing...?

something...?


what?
-antihero

[The Fonz]

seriously, get the goddamn chip off your shoulder.

she's making the point that anen didn't know if the sk was going to fuck him over or not. you can use whatever tortured euphemism you want, it's still a tie.

-antihero

1) You're being a fucking douche. Stop. This is a fucking difficult read for me, and I keep going backwards and forwards, and if you're going to act like this every time I think your analysis is flawed or disagree with your interpretation of something, it makes it unfun and want to kill you on principle. And, I mean, this is an endgame where the other player is fucking Nero.

2) If that's her point, it's irrelevant. I don't know how many times I have to say this: SCENARIOS WHERE ANEN GOT SHOT LAST NIGHT WERE IRRELEVANT TO HIS CALCULATIONS. He's making his choices assuming the SK doesn't screw him over. At 1-1-1, the SK literally can't screw him over without screwing themselves over too. Remember the whole reason we're debating this? You suggested it was completely implausible given #1949 that he'd let you live. I've explained, calmly and rationally, why that isn't true. You're trying to make me believe the alternative scenario, where Anen

knows exactly who the SK is, and does precisely jack shit about it in either phase.

I mean, lynching Nero wouldn't have been THAT hard. He could have counted on sthar, at least.

3) You can use whatever tortured euphemism YOU want, it's still a joint victory. That's how it's been treated ever since I joined the site - if one member of two different antitown factions is left alive, they

win together.

I've seen plenty of scumgroups settle for that.

[Heartless]

Yeah, I understand PD perfectly well. Thanks for explaining in a super-patronizing manner, though. It's not a PD, because at the point where you know who the other 'player' in the game is, there's no co-operate/defect outcome possible. It's C/C or D/D, and C/C is just obviously better.

He'd play for the tie if he expects to lose in the alternative scenario. (Also, ties between antitown groups are usually considered joint wins).

if you're going to be insecure about it, at least get the "PD" (lol) straight.

what i was just talking about, the whole thing with mafia knowing who the SK is, works the other way around. ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN THEORY anen already thoroughly blew his cover, so IT WOULD ACTUALLY BE "PD."

yeah, of course c/c is just obviously better for everyone, BUT NOT EVERYONE PICKS THAT THAT'S WHY THE DILEMMA EXISTS IN THE FIRST PLACE. people get greedy. and why not? the object for the mafia and sk is to win alone, not win with the other faction.

if he really wanted to tie, the better thing to do would've been to hammer aa9 and then say "HEY SK, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE, YOU'RE [NAME], DON'T SHOOT ME WE'LL GO TO PRISONER'S DILEMMA FOR THE TIE I'M SHOOTING DAVE."

that's obvious.

[Heartless]

You're being a fucking douche. Stop.

i know. i am.

tth isn't though, so don't project condescension onto her.