Like hello my name is Nacho and I'm willing to listen to you. I'm willing to go out on a retardedly long limb for you and meet you three fourths of the way on that retardedly long limb. I'm asking for a tiny tiny piece of information that there is absolutely no motivation, whether it be town or scum or survivor, not to provide it. You continuing not to provide that tiny piece of information tells me that you don't have it.
There is a tiny bit of motivation because I fucked myself over bigtime here and revealing it fucks me over more! Pretty much the only two people I feel like actually need this info at this point in time are you and mollie.
It was a long post and after I was hammered I pointed something out about it, then someone solved what I was going for
@bulba
Death notes states he won't vote to lynch survivors only dayvig them, then he votes a survivor because she is a survivor. It's the blatent contradiction
so the first thing I want to address is his initial stream of catchup posts (153-184). I, more or less, hated it because if you factor out all the theory and setup spec, you are left with essentially nothing. it's, save for one post, 100% theory and shit about the setup, and then he announces 2 town reads at the end, one of which (TWOH) was left unexplained.
now, you might say "setup spec is null", but in this context, it's scummy. why? there is a very distinct lack of scumhunting anywhere in here at all. it is a very basic tactic to comment on irrelevant things, or poke at things here and there, in order to appear like you're doing smth when you're really not. the reads he did give at the end weren't particularly telling either way, but I think that if he was town here, there would likely be more focus on explaining reads and trying to extract information from players here, as opposed to doing nothing but talking about the setup and only devoting a few lines to actual play. the only other sign of him scum hunting was him poking at ooba/adorkable, which by itself is meh.
In post 184, BROseidon wrote:I'm thinking that there's a 60% chance UT is telling the truth, 35% chance he's a jester, and 5% chance he's scum.
By those odds, Dayvig strictly dominates a lynch, which has a higher EV than not lynching if we assume jester is non win-stealing. If it's win-stealing, not lynching is stronger.
I'll deal with sorting the details of that if/when it becomes clear we don't have a dayvig.
Regarding the survivors, I'm fine leaving them around for now. Vig should go and clean them up, though; no reason to potentially hit a town PR when NS has basically said that he's going to do nothing and just sheep the largest wagon all game.
Early town reads on Bulba and Heaven slot. I agree with Bulba that AA9 is sketch, but AA9 is also always bad like that, so I'll hold off there.
I really didn't like this, in particular. it doesn't seem like it's coming from a mindset of trying to figure anything out; if you look at the reasoning he was using, most of the conclusions are pretty obvious, and I don't see why it was necessary to introduce the math into it. it should really be common sense not lynching a jester is more optimal than lynching if it's win-stealing. I feel like it's coming more from a scum-trying-to-gain-approval mindset with all the shiny numbers as opposed to actually trying to accomplish anything.
In post 240, BROseidon wrote:Also there's certain people I want to post who aren't posting and it makes me sad
I didn't like either of these posts. neither of them add anything to the game; they are more posts that I feel are coming more from a scum-trying-to-gain-approval mindset as opposed to a town-trying-to-figure-things out mindset.
now, this isn't much of a tell by itself, but it is part of a long pattern of posts that make me think his play this game is coming from a consistently scum mindset, so in that context I think this is relevant. there are more posts that give me similar vibes down the line.
moving onto the 2nd catchup (413-431), it's more of the same - more 1-liners, more weak lines of questioning that don't actually lead anywhere, more setup spec
So 3 pages have given us three scum and one cultist.. Sucks that UT is the best lynch though…
Vote: UT
So you're going to try to tell me that you straight up missed a page-top post two posts and ~30 minutes before your post?
this is the first *real* sign of scum hunting in his ISO, which I missed the first time bc I wasn't reading into it hard enough. I have to admit, I actually quite liked this. I know exactly what he was going for here, and it fits with the way he was poking at ooba/adorkable in his previous catchup. that's not to say this is unfakeable by any means, and I think he is definitely a skilled enough scum player to be able to fake this kind of read progression as scum - but I am taking it as at least a point in his favor if it becomes relevant later
Our flavor is Pacman. That being said, we're going to be jumping on the main wagon from here on out.
Course, I might have some witty banter for you all. One doesn't just get in this awesome playerlist and lurk the entire time. Pretty much all I'm going to do though.
skitty, why did you claim this? don't you know that survivor is a policy lycn?
Holy shit the coaching.
VOTE: Shos scum flip here is basically confscum Skitty ^_^
In post 434, BROseidon wrote:From a town POV, there isn't an incentive for understanding the reasons of Skitty's claim. If he really thinks that a survivor claim = policy lynch, he would just, y'know, push the lynch and not really care about any sort of "whys"
this is the second sign of scum hunting in his ISO. as I said, I absolutely fucking hate this. it is a completely specious argument. it is an argument he made bc he was looking for stuff to comment on, saw this, and thought he could easily attribute scum motivation to it in a way no one would contest.
however, if you actually think about it, it doesn't hold any water, for one basic reason. this so-called "coaching" happened _after NS claimed_. what the fuck does scum shos have to gain by "coaching" NS in that matter after he claimed? it's not like NS can just go back and retract the claim later and not expect to get policy lynched into the fucking ground. what he claims is "coaching" does not actually do anything to serve a shos/NS team and it would instead just make them look bad.
however, he completely ignores this and instead tries to spin it as "no town motivation". he is not actually looking for scum motivation in the way shos handled it.
this is typical scum behavior. it is a basic scum strategy to push arguments that are objectively true on a surface level, bc they *look* really good and are hard to defend against. he _knows_ this play from shos is really just a result of him acting in a stupid way and nothing more, and thus that he has no _real_ defense for it. so he just ignores the fact there isn't *actually* any scum motivation and instead keeps pushing on the fact that most town players wouldn't screw up and act that way.
In post 442, BROseidon wrote:Oh my god this is gonna me Mala from Wicked mafia all over again isn't it >:C
In post 444, BROseidon wrote:The point I'm making is that I'm making a valid but slightly nuanced point that you're going to ignore because you can't understand it for whatever reason.
this is *another* post that I feel is coming more from a scum-trying-to-seek-approval mindset than a town-trying-to-figure-things-out mindset. and the thing is, his frustration here seems entirely out of place. if you go to read Wicked, you will see that he pointed out a bunch of things about Mala and continuously argued for basically the entire D1 about it, while no one listened to him.
this is not the same situation at all. he only has one major point against shos (the coaching) and by itself it's kind of weak. it's not like he was continuously pushing it like he did in that game, and moreover, Skitty (you know, the other person in his shos/Skitty lineup) is the major wagon right now. the conviction here is totally misplaced, as if he's faking it.
this post is also *extremely* relevant for another reason I'll get into later
In post 445, BROseidon wrote:Like, why would Shos write what he wrote instead of just attacking if he were town? What's the incentive for softballing it.
you know how I said it's typical scum behavior to keep pushing someone over an objective thing because he knows they don't have a defense for it? lololol. in all honesty this post by itself is probably not telling either way, but it is consistent with the motivation I am attributing to his push.
I mentioned there were a lot of things I liked about TWOH's play. their 468 is one of them. reading back through the way BRO is handling the push here, this is exactly what I thought - trying to link shos with Skitty if Skitty is scum here - and Nacho reached the exact same conclusion as me. but anyway:
In post 829, BROseidon wrote:I'd like to know what games pie is referring to because I can only recall AoT and imperishable night. Also what your are referring to when you say we think alike because our only games together are AoT, earthbound, and xenosaga, none of which would lead me to that conclusion.
Also calling me scum for 1-linering is effectively calling me scum for existing.
this, by itself, is not particularly telling, but the last sentence is more specious argumentation. I never called him scum for 1-lining; I called him scum for 1-lining and setup spec'ing to the point of having no *actual* scumhunting. the point here is that he wasn't actually scum hunting, not just posting one-liners.
In post 851, Brian Skies wrote:Your Adorkable/Bro reads are interesting to me, especially considering Bro was oddly sensitive towards Ooba regarding Adorkable. Bro doesn't really feel like he did in AoT because his play there was oddly wacky and scummy coming from him.
the main parallel I'm seeing is that of specious or otherwise manipulative argumentation
if you remember from that game, a lot of the arguments he was pushing weren't actually correct and were generally very shallow. he also heavily relied on this in NY167. on the other hand, in my experience with town BRO, all his arguments were *very* rock solid and logical. the coaching point reads as an example of this
I also thought it was weird that he brought up Wicked, bc if you look at his Mala case from that game, he had a lot more on Mala than what he has here and the arguments he had were a lot better, and it doesn't make sense that he would believe his coaching argument here with the same amount of conviction that he believed in his Mala case from that game. I think it comes from more of a scum-seeking-approval mindset than a town-trying-to-figure-things-out mindset. there are other posts that gave me similar vibes
there's some other things I think are individually scummy, which will have to wait until later bc no time atm. I'm also taking into account that BRO's scum play in AOT was probably the most obvious scum play I've seen, so I'd expect his play to generally be better than that.
In your experience with me where I've been scum like 1/2 the time, and in the town game you did cite (NY169) I played... very similar to how I'm playing here, actually.
You're also misrepresenting the Mala case. That Mala case wasn't a super rock-solid case in anyone's eyes but my own - fuck, everyone in that game let Mala get away with soft-CCing me as a conftown role because they thought my case was so thin.
(For reference: the read on Mala in that game was b/c she buddied a bad question of Mina's on page 2 or 3 that concerned hydras in a way that seemed slightly off, and her over defensive response led me to figuring out that she was scum with 2 hydras)
this post is bad bc the accusation of "misrep" is completely out of place.
I said that BRO's Mala case in Wicked was a lot better than his coaching case here. this is, pretty undeniably, true. moreover, I said BRO's arguments when town are generally rock-solid and logical (which btw is a huge difference from the kinds of specious arguments he's doing here lolol). this is, also, pretty undeniably true.
it was never my intention to, nor did I say, that everyone else in the game felt similarly to me about BRO's arguments. rather, I agree with him that everyone else was a derp and should have listened to him there. all I was insinuating was that, speaking completely objectively, BRO's arguments are logical, even if people don't see it sometimes. there is nothing I misrep'ed here, and the way he calls "misrep" is generally typical of scum who try to make the person attacking them look worse than them
now, I could potentially see him thinking his case was good when he was actually in the game, but then after going back and looking at it again thinking it wasn't. that'd be fine. but let me pull this up again:
In post 442, BROseidon wrote:Oh my god this is gonna me Mala from Wicked mafia all over again isn't it >:C
it is obvious that he (correctly imo) continues to think his case against Mala was correct. so I really don't see why he thought I was implying otherwise. I'd like for someone who disagrees with me on this to tell me what they think his thought process here actually was.
one more thing about the catchups (if anyone's still reading this lolol), this is a catchup from one of TOWN-BRO's games:
In post 318, Generic wrote:BROseidon, who are you feeling the least happy with so far. Not gonna expect full scum reads at this stage Roth do many having yet to put any pertinent input into this, but who is beeping on the radar at least in your eyes?
I'll get back to you after reading these ten pages.
In post 13, Brian Skies wrote:You're scum doing this with only your best intentions in mind. It's anti-town. You need rope, but I'm already voting my other scum-read.
How is it antitown? The plan essentially gives him three days freedom as scum. This freedom is also time that I'm left alive to rampage all over the scumteam in typical Nacho fashion when he could instead just dodge me for a day and kill me in a night. He has also demonstrated the capacity to read me pretty fucking well based on the past few times we've played together, so it makes sense he would want to buy extra time to figure me out (considering he tends to be a kill priority for scum-Nacho).
If he's scum, why would you expect him to follow through on this?
In post 357, Casso the King of Seals wrote:Yes? Cabd forming a town block with himself in the center early game doesn't exactly seem like something that's unlikely to be coming from Cabd-scum. Why do you disagree?
It's three of the stronger slots in the game trying to posture around each other for... reasons...
Only real town motivation I can see behind it is to prevent paranoia from ripping the town apart at the seams, which can happen very easily in a game like this.
In post 368, Casso the King of Seals wrote:I still think BRO deserves caution, but his "meh I fucking suck at large games" seemed a lot more honest than any BROscum play that I've seen. It's more about what he's not doing than what he is doing!
I don't like how you're hiding behind a single comment to justify reading me, then throwing out some high-level "What he's not doing indicates he's town" reasoning without substantiating what those markers are. It makes it look like you're setting up for a potential "gotcha" moment on me that people'll trust because of your authority/experience with me.
In post 410, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Firstly, Nacho in Buzzword went up against Orc because your slot (squared) did. He immediately dropped suspicion on Orc once he returned from a brief period of inactivity – the scum motivation clearly being he didn’t want to go against you. Here on the other hand, you indicated that Brian suspicion is unjustified – or at least, that is the implicit vibe I received from you. Tammy opposed the push as well. Assuming she is town, Nacho as scum would be pushing a player that could alienate his biggest threats – this is something I haven’t seen a parallel with in Buzzword. Let’s say he wants to push the Brian lynch, who will help him? Not you, Tammy, or even Cephrir who despite saying that Brian was trying too hard now has a townread on him. Probably not Pitoli who he is voting. Perhaps he expected me to help but I made it clear I am not sure either way about Brian. So, I am not seeing the same parallel w.r.t Brian and Orc. What did I miss?
This is how you make an argument, people.
Tammy’s town, don’t want to substantiate why because ~reasons~
Although I don’t get where these pitoli reads are coming from because by page 18 I’ve forgotten that she’s even posted. I guess that’s implicitly bad, but still…
In post 471, Brian Skies wrote:How about we just lynch you now and get the game over with?
That would bring the “BRO getting mislynched” statistic in conflict with the “BRO always wins with Nacho” statistic. It’s better to let scum NK me, because then I’m conftown AND the “BRO almost always wins when not mislynched” stat comes into play.
^_^
Stopped quoting shit because MS hates me, but I’m hard townreading Tammy after the fight. Also townreading Brian, but not as strongly.
Gut-feeling off about Ceph, but I’m gonna table that for a bit. Also disconcerted by the lack of presence from a handful of players (gutbunny, Desp, Sak, Domo, GM, pit). Other than that…
VOTE: Casso
We have a date, Nacho. I apologize for not being super-available for the next 24 hours.
for context, this is his ISO from that game, there are some relevant early game posts before said catchup, and MC Maraca had crumbed mason. keeping all this in mind, his efforts here to scum hunt are, quite blatantly, obvious - you can tell exactly what he's going for pressuring the ppl who didn't see the mason crumb, and his questions (or rather the one question he asked) here are relevant and actually designed to extract information from players. there are some 1-liners and friendly posts, but it is very well mixed with scumhunting - it's basically night and day from what he's doing here
tl;dr:
1. a huge lack of scumhunting compared to setup spec, weak lines of questioning that don't actually lead anywhere, or anything else;
2. consistent attempts to appeal to other players;
3. the way he's handling the shos/Skitty push;
4. a large amount of general specious argumentation;
5. the fact he's demonstrated a tendency to play differently than this as town.
i really don't see where the town reads on BRO are coming from. i'd like someone who disagrees to tell me what i'm missing here, save for possibly the trajectory on ooba/Skitty.
read harder. ns's play this game has actually been pretty town. and i'd expect you would know this, if you stepped back and stopped pushing him for so much as 2 seconds.
i'm more interested in hearing about why you think they're scum since i'm skimming through your ISO and it's a bit hard to follow. the main reason i could find was the thing about "normal game", which i'm pretty sure was just him trolling the fuck out of the thread.
read harder. ns's play this game has actually been pretty town. and i'd expect you would know this, if you stepped back and stopped pushing him for so much as 2 seconds.
i'm more interested in hearing about why you think they're scum since i'm skimming through your ISO and it's a bit hard to follow. the main reason i could find was the thing about "normal game", which i'm pretty sure was just him trolling the fuck out of the thread.
how about lynching BRO with me instead?
You are proposing that skitty fake claimed survivor as a townie to ????
1. if NS's play this game makes any sense at all from a scum POV. you claim he wanted to claim survivor in order to coast, but if that was his goal, there are a fuckton of better things he could claim (e.g. hated claim seems to be the gold standard for scum coasting claims recently, see marquis in dangan ronpa 2). claiming survivor, in fact, would draw him even _more_ negative attention than not doing so, especially given he's bound to get PL'ed for it later. it doesn't actually make any sense that he would claim survivor as scum here, and you should really know this
2. what NS *actually* has to gain by supposedly lying about this being a normal game as scum here. hint: nothing, which is why insinuating he'd lie about it is fucking dumb
those are the only 2 reasons i can find for you thinking he's scum, and the composition of the wagon makes me think it's a shit wagon. if there's more, let me know, but i think you're really on the wrong track here (or you're just scum). i'm still interested in why you aren't voting BRO with me
tbh im still not fully 100% on the ns part of the hydra being read as scum but i was seriously let down by caled's posts and thats why im not telling ms to get off skitty
I'm a hoot
Stream: twitch.tv/dramonic
-If you stick your ear close enough to the game thread you can actually hear dram suffer in real life.-Beeboy
-Being obtuse is not a consequence of being a mod, it's a prerequisite. I think you may just have overestimated my intelligence before.-Korts
In post 967, mental somnic wrote:tbh im still not fully 100% on the ns part of the hydra being read as scum but i was seriously let down by caled's posts and thats why im not telling ms to get off skitty
tbh i think you had your expectations set way too high re: caled. from what i've observed, it is indeed true that she generally does fuck all in hydras, and it's obvious she hasn't ~really~ got into the game yet, so i'm not faulting her for it
anyway, tell MS when he gets back he owes me about 3 or 4 sheeps
In post 964, Johou Tougou Shinen-Tai wrote:1. if NS's play this game makes any sense at all from a scum POV. you claim he wanted to claim survivor in order to coast, but if that was his goal, there are a fuckton of better things he could claim (e.g. hated claim seems to be the gold standard for scum coasting claims recently, see marquis in dangan ronpa 2). claiming survivor, in fact, would draw him even _more_ negative attention than not doing so, especially given he's bound to get PL'ed for it later. it doesn't actually make any sense that he would claim survivor as scum here, and you should really know this
It makes complete sense. The fact he didn't think of claiming something better doesn't change the fact the scum motivation is there.
2. what NS *actually* has to gain by supposedly lying about this being a normal game as scum here. hint: nothing, which is why insinuating he'd lie about it is fucking dumb
What does he have to gain as town?
It's just a shitty excuse.
I`m sorry mate, but your ovine is in another castle.
I'm a hoot
Stream: twitch.tv/dramonic
-If you stick your ear close enough to the game thread you can actually hear dram suffer in real life.-Beeboy
-Being obtuse is not a consequence of being a mod, it's a prerequisite. I think you may just have overestimated my intelligence before.-Korts
I'm a hoot