Micro 434 - Winter's Ball [Game Over]

[Bert]

Flubbernugget, will you accept this dance with me?

[Bert]

I was thinking of asking everyone to the dance and saying I'm a player to justify it. But, I decided on one for now!

nerves, i tell ya, nerves

[Bert]

I have no interest in being within 50 ft of you, BPC.

[Bert]

BPC's EGO has been SQUELCHED! <3

[Bert]

Don't have time to make a post as have had people over all day today pretty much (and this weekend...), haven't had time for anything.

I haven't made any serious posts yet, and Cephrir who can read me super easily once I get it going (which I haven't had time for), was advocating that I'm scummy so far (?) and thus not worthy of the dance?

lol. if you think im that easy to read, then you can peg me as either strong town or strong scum when I get into the game.

going out tonight, see you guys later! <3

[Bert]

yep i know the entire playerlist lol

[Bert]

i think my experience with the dance a long time ago (the first run of this game, maybe?), the predance lasted forever

lol

[Bert]

flubba dubba dub suspects mwah but i dunno why yet im asking him that atm

[Bert]

i think mollies town
anti seems town but time will tell if he keeps it up for a sustained lengthy period of time

im in a festive mood in ways unknown so like
i am giving gut reads loooooooool

i approve of how ceph is interrogating flub, cos i gotta see flub's transparency before i can feel comfortable with having a nice fat read on him
i do not know what ceph is asking for to read me, i think he expects me to act like a derp and get a townread that way (but that derpy side doesnt appear that often, which was a problem in our last game Timeshift)
im not sure if 4 days would be enough for him to get a definitive read, provided his method does work (which im not sure it does, but he hasnt gotten his read wrong on me so who am i to doubt)

[Bert]

FITB: Christmas is a time to be jolly!

[Bert]

2 but

he is being interrogative at least where it looks like he is trying to figure me out, so far.
if he continues that pace then i will feel good
if neighborhood becomes inactive and he starts to be lurky/avoidy then not so much lol

[Bert]

his in thread play is null so far, if it stays the same then theres a problem

[Bert]

that is a nice avatar you got there. i am figuring out which one of you is Santa. Are you Him?

[Bert]

Santa gets forever townread in my book, so come forward please tia <3

2 is not enough. i need to see 30+ in the neighborhood, and reasonable 2 posts/day from flubby

[Bert]

that is a nice avatar you got there. i am figuring out which one of you is Santa. Are you Him?

no, read the avy

it clearly says i'm a "ho"
it even repeats it twice

im laughing so hard
but i dont know whats so funny



haha?

[Bert]

i think flubber is scum, and i cant read bert, but whether bert is scum or town doesn't matter to me since he'd be going with flubber.

ok but
need more time and posts from flubber both in thread and in the neighborhood, at least 4-5 days minimum before lynching.

if everyone else is so sure he is scum or whatever, all yall gotta do is ask me to leave lol

[Bert]

i believe in mollie's ETL-reading abilities from past games (90%)! this is a trust-mollie-on-nacho type feeling, i havent had that in a long time! <3

VOTE: ETL

flubber is dancing around in thread here, but i need to know from him why he accepted mine which is one of my main focuses right now in the PT.

reason being that it took guts from either scum-him or town-him to accept my invite over Pine's or whoever asked him as well. my instinct is scum wanted me in the dance over Pine, but they didnt want to be paired with me (if that makes sense).

[Bert]

well I dunno if I'm seeing the same thing you are but I remember him dancing around your accusations and he's doing the same thing here.

less about response to accusation more about how he treated his accuser

in chosen his responses to us were vaguely retaliatory without really having any bite. it's in that grey area between ignoring and omgusing.
seeing same pattern w/ ceph here

youve been referring to flames in your last few posts, right? the one that reminds you of an old game with TTH or something, that is

[Bert]

that's only 3 votes

[Bert]

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Bert]

also, he sticks out like a sore thumb in the gentleman because he was the ONLY one who didn't do any kind of sorting prior to accepting a partner.

his reasoning he noted for accepting - is that he was surprised that i asked, but that he understood why ETL asked. still doesnt explain why he accepted mine though

i went random too, random in the sense that i didnt get a read on flubber. however, i was a lady and my main goal was to get to dance, which is the opposite of the gentleman's.

he's dancing around in this thread which is null but yet worrying, so if i see only a few meaningless posts and nothing else (creative dodges) in a few IRL days, then he's a goner for sure

[Bert]

both dance partners are like lovers, and leave together whether it be voluntarily or by wayof lynch

[Bert]

Ceph, why do you think Bert's scummy? I didn't really feel anything different in his posting so far than when I've played with his as town in other games. I'm pretty null on him anyways.

pedit: I was about to accept Ceph's offer D: Why Ceph scummy?

Damn right ya do.

I think BPC is town so far incidentally. Still, a neighborhood should do me a world of good.

Not sure about who in particular knows pine well from past games. I was meaning more Scum in general would *probably* want Pine gone and me into the dance, but who knows.
im torn right now looking at the gentleman/lady chart
if BPC and flub were scum together, then the pre-dance phase was easy for them and the interactions not really important as they both would have no chance of being left out.

BPC's entrance was worrying in that his play doesnt feel loose (this has nothing to do with whether his handling of choosing a dance partner was suboptimal or anything). But the switch last minute to accepting Ceph looked like he felt pressure to accept Ceph, and i need him to state why he changed last minute

Gentleman:

BipolarChemist
Flames682
Antihero
Flubbernugget


Ladies:

Bert
EspeciallyTheLies
Cephrir
pirate mollie

[Bert]

UGH i did not mean to quote those, i clikced the plus button earlier and it came out cos forgot to take out. booo

[Bert]

i need him to state why he changed last minute

i suspect he will tell me he felt guilt-tripped, but still

p-edit: my vote is because i trust mollie to read you, in addition anti is voting you too which worries me a ton as well that theyre right. anti has hydra-ed with you a lot. on the surface you always look convincing in past games regardless of alignment, so.........

[Bert]

Well, there was the whole mollie directly telling him to do that thing.

I'll let him explain other stuff if he wants but I know that there's a bit more to it than that.

K. Missed that.

So you're kinda sheeping ETL here at least to get a foothold?? At least, I think that's who put that forth. You're also voting her right now?

Either way, need more clarity on the ETL side, and Flames too. They're not going to be quicklynched because this playerlist doesn't do that from past game experience. if flames is really scummy, then ill feel loads better.

at this point, if Flubber is town, and ETL/Flames are town, then this game is over from my POV, so gotta see more reason to believe! <3

[Bert]

we can talk on skype?

omg

and site chat?

woah

this is like turf war marathons in the past then

[Bert]

Nothing, we've been skyping and site chatting a bit. I think we're going to keep doing that. He's reading the thread right now, though.

moderator FG: Could you clarify the rules regarding out-of-game communication between dance partners (neighbors)...i.e., what type of communication is/isn't allowed... types of communication such as skype phone calls, etc. <33333

[Bert]

Nothing, we've been skyping and site chatting a bit. I think we're going to keep doing that. He's reading the thread right now, though.

moderator FG: Could you clarify the rules regarding out-of-game communication between dance partners (neighbors)...i.e., what type of communication is/isn't allowed... types of communication such as skype phone calls, etc. <33333

Dance partners may use whatever communication they feel like using.

[Bert]

Flub has replied 23 times now, yeah so im gonna keep stuff confidential until hes ready and caught up etc. etc.

[Bert]

this is an earthshattering development
like where has the old flubber gone
is this real guyz

[Bert]

All in all: I still have no idea what the hell is going on.

Why is that?

[Bert]

Christmas last-minute stuff going on...

Flubber says he'll be able to talk via a Skype Voice call the day after Christmas, so I'm going to wait on that. Meanwhile, we'll talk on Skype and stoofs!

Actually it's a very I have no idea what's happening list.

While you commented on everyone, you're not taking a clear side on the three reads that are being argued about most: Flubber and BPC (and me to a slightly lesser extent). Also, the list below is far from "being unaware of the gamestate," especially when your townreads are agreeable to the rest of the reads lists already provided.

Flubber hasn't done much besides refuse to answer questions.

Anti seems town.

ETL had an interesting response and also said he would leave but not sure why since I hadn't even posted.

BPC hasn't posted either and it's interesting that no one has commented on that but everyone wants me to post...?

Cephir seems town.

Not sure what to think of Bert.

Mollie could be town I'm not sure.

Anti has posted a bunch of fluff in caps but also gives useful info.



All in all: I still have no idea what the hell is going on.

[Bert]

Edited to add: "argued about most" reads - left out ETL, which (surprise!) you have no clear opinion about either.

[Bert]

I am here, but it's Xmas Eve so I haven't been focused.

As I said, I will call Flubber on Skype after Christmas since he is free this weekend starting Fri., and hopefully that should help us both get unwavering reads on each other. That's my main goal right now. If I am extremely convinced he's definitely town via voice call, then I will fight hard against the odds as his out of thread openness in that case hasn't been coming through in the thread as well as it has outside.

Then, if he is okay with it, we can post a recap of what we discussed and start from there.

Happy Birthday! <3

[Bert]

Also, I have told him about Con Mafia, and how Nacho, Mara, Rach and I used Skype Voice calls to read each other.

[Bert]

Although, I am lowering my standards for Bert right now and maybe I should stop that

stahp. alotta pplz do not like when i get trolly so i iz serious like. 99 percent of the time yea
GOT MILK? (worst commercial ever with THE ROCK!)

[Bert]

Probs gone till after Christmas byeee

Merry Christmas!

[Bert]

Unvote

[Bert]

We r in a call atm

[Bert]

Flubber is town

Bb in a bit to post on comp

[Bert]

Town as fook

[Bert]

@ bert

can you plz look at cephrir's and bpc's interactions plz????

UNVOTE:

I have asked anti the same thing in our pt I will until at least 1 of you guyz get back with me.

I will!

[Bert]

we agreed to vote ETL in our call. Flubber has ETL as strongest scumread by far, based in part on past game meta.

VOTE: ETL

[Bert]

i thought bpc and ceph's interactions were awkward but scarce (in-thread only), but there is so much behind the scenes going on, that none of us have a great idea of what they have been talking about outside the thread.

flubber has anti and bpc as town.

[Bert]

Bert/Flubber: Have you guys talked yet or...what? There's not much time left.

we talked 20 minutes and just ended our call a few minutes ago, finally!

there was a lot of rambling going on, and i was more suspicious of Ceph, while Flub is most suspicious of ETL. Flub believes Ceph is town and understands Ceph's agitation at certain points of this game, though.

[Bert]

we also were worried about what day 2 could be like if ETL/flames are both town, because then it looks very bad

So, he has Flames as somewhat of a PoE possibility, and ETL as a scumread.

Ceph's roller coaster like agitation has bothered me to where I auto-scumread him for that, and we discussed how Ceph hasn't been level headed in this game to say the least, but he feels good about his Ceph townread so there's that

there is a lot to ramble about, but we both need to read up a lot more as well

[Bert]

His reads:

ETL- scum

Flames, Mollie - ??? not sure

Anti, BPC, Ceph - town

[Bert]

we also were worried about what day 2 could be like if ETL/flames are both town, because then it looks very bad

Looks bad how?

looks bad because we think each other is town, but we feel the other pairs are perceived as much more townier, so it is an uphill battle if day 2 is 2 vs. 4

[Bert]

i probably should have asked about what to say in my recap, but that is it. i will also say he sounded like he was genuine, although i am not a human lie detector (very far from it).

[Bert]

I have:

flames - scummy, but Flubber thinks flames from psat games is always kinda null scummy, so that flames "i feel like i wanna leave" is very much null. While, he believes ETL's "i will just leave then" is more likely scum manipulation. However, he is very aware and vocal about how he may be conf-biased, which I see as a very town POV the way he phrased it.

Ceph - i think is scummy, but it's not widely shared as an opinion
ETL - ??? defer

Anti, mollie - town
BPC - town because i believe if there's scum in that pair, it's Ceph most likely, not the other way around

my two cents

[Bert]

there aren't many ceph-bpc interactions.

i dont undrestand what ceph means by "mollie's mudslinging." idk why he painted mollie's posts that way

BPC, you seem pretty engaged this game...does this format of game appeal to you well? just curious

this is not my proper catchup or whwatever btw, it is a "omg holiday deadlines, finally got this call in like omg, must post" <333333

[Bert]

Why do you think Flames is scummy, Bert? Personally I have him as null.

lack of stances
says he wants to leave, but doesnt say why ETL is scummy at any point of the game

ETL had an interesting response and also said he would leave but not sure why since I hadn't even posted.

this is flames only mention of ETL in this thread, all game, then suddenly he "feels like leaving"

[Bert]

I like smaller games 2!! Larger takes lots of endurance

Ceph, DL may be short

But Idk why u think this feels like a losing game

[Bert]

Last post before computer

I posted our neighborhood reads n thoughts hastily (oops probably dumbs) but

Silver lining is:
I believe transparent reads is important in this situation, despiteleaving both flubby and me susceptible to manipulation due to everyone knowing reads of both and thought processes too

(although my written thought processes leave some to be desired)

[Bert]

Oh those interactions.

Fooking fishy in retrospect that

BPC would choose pine at first

Then last minute "flip" to Ceph

Given how BPC just said he's super chill w/ Ceph

[Bert]

can etl's smear on anti come from town? that is the question I am begging.

could come from either. im torn on etl, and im deferring because her emotion is tricky to read...

is cephrir and bpc dynamics that far off? <------see I think so, but I always question myself. there is no consistent dynamic flow even if they knew each other and loved each other it is not discernible in the thread except to say that it happened at some point.

it doesn't add up based on the dance phase and bpc "almost leaving ceph out," if they are that close

after the dance phase though, there isnt direct bpc-ceph to read, which is what i meant by 'not a lot of interactions'

in the skype call, we discussed how it felt like something isnt right if etl-flames are both town

i think the double edged sword in this game is, that neighbors can figure each other out behind the scenes and develop strong townreads/scumreads much more easily than they could in a regular neighborhood thread.

so the process where people like etl-flames or you-anti or bpc-ceph figure eacch other out -------> outsiders only see what goes on in their own neighborhood thread and the main thread.

[Bert]

i think the double edged sword in this game is, that neighbors can figure each other out behind the scenes and develop strong townreads/scumreads much more easily than they could in a regular neighborhood thread.

so the process where people like etl-flames or you-anti or bpc-ceph figure eacch other out -------> outsiders only see what goes on in their own neighborhood thread and the main thread.

meant to say that neighbors have a hard time figuring out people outside their neighborhood because of all the behind-the-scenes going on, but the trade-off is each neighbor can get a relaly firm grasp on his own neighbor...

[Bert]

bert plz don't be scum.

you are my achilles heel.

<33333 not scum

this is not buddying btw. it is a recap of what i told flubby

i told flubby that the only way i can see you being scum is:

if youre with a scumbuddy who is potentially really energetic/proactive at leading/motivating a scumteam (in the metal-sonic like realm/vein), and the names that fit are ETL, Ceph, Anti. ETL and Ceph dont really make sense as partners. unless you are super motivated on your own to mindfuck someone who has caught you-scum easily or something

tl;dr think ure town

[Bert]

UNVOTE:

Defying logic I am having lots of second thoughts, to where I feel like ETL-flames mebbe should not be lynched today or tomorrow. Mollie if youre not confident in ETL-scum, then I'm not confident either because it is a sheep vote after all

D:

And instead, BPC/Ceph going would be my recommendation should we get lynched (which looks likely - ETL, Anti + (Cephrir likely, Flames (self-preservation). BPC adds on and trusts Ceph's read.

[Bert]

I had to check flames again from past games, and this is null.

I'm still torn about ETL, but I am also spoiled and used to her raging in all my past games....this is like a new ETL at least since early Day 1 ended...

[Bert]

My instinct is Ceph and I can't explain it, which sucks.

[Bert]

VOTE: Ceph

This is more of a "this is where I recommend" vote more than anything. But of course would vote ETL again if needed, but not thrilled about it. Woah 360 doggy.

[Bert]

Sorry last post!!

I'm 360'ing but mainly because I feel opinions on Flubber and/or me have been developed and are not likely to change understandably, deadline's near etc.

My opinion is out and free as no risk

[Bert]

I lied. Last post!

I feel one friend is fooling the other in the BPC-Ceph pair, but one doesn't know he's getting played. Ceph's play has been underwhelming IMHO

[Bert]

@ etl

umm

im normally not confident about reads, but this game is special due to its allowed methods
i talked with flubber.

today.
in a skype call.

and im 85% sure hes town via his out of thread communication. 85 is arbitrary because it was a voice call, but that is a gazillion times more telling to me than plain text without tonal inflections.

i didnt hear his voice quiver, and he didnt seem nervous at all. thats not to mention the discussion

[Bert]

ffery does this to me sometimes too (or maybe i'm mixing people up, but i'm pretty sure it's her), she'll prod me and vote me and ask me why i'm not doing anything. because sometimes i just dont want to. i wish you guys understood that.

i havent played with her in a long time, but she used to do that in my old games too and vote me cos i was doing nuttin, to see what im up to lately, y'know

/tangent

[Bert]

can i leave yet?

what's up with you and this leaving thing n why is etl scum plz answer tia <3

[Bert]

That's wonderful Ceph!!!!
I am so happy to hear your lovely voice of reason!!!

Pray tell why saint Mollie is scum!
I await ur reply and anxiously chew my bubble gum

[Bert]

Sablefish
Peppermint patties
Turnip greens!

These are the ingredients for a town win!
Please believe, or eat some jalapeño peppers and bitter melon!
You heard it here!! Goes to all of yall

BALLIN! Swish!

/mobile

[Bert]

Do not fear!
For Santa Applause is here!
To applaud your final vote!

[Bert]

I can imagine it too though

Did you know
Did you know that

I believe in my Flubby read!
I can feel positive vibrations!
Winning vibrations! <3

It's like having a baked Alaska!

[Bert]

Look in my puppy dog eyes
Don't fret

Answer!
What do U think?

[Bert]

Ahm turning back the clock to zerooooooo
Haters gonna hate hate hate
Lovers gonna Donna summers luvey dovey wubb

Yup yup

[Bert]

I think flame is beyond town at this point

...????????????

ps the reason I suck this game is because I shouldn't have played over the holidays. That was really stupid.

The holiday season is a time to relive childhood memories!

Excitement for this wonderful lifesaving game of finding naughty scum beats limping to deadline! Emphasis 'dead'
Long live Mafia!

Aye?

[Bert]

Well, I think I want to lynch the other pairs more than yours right now.

Holy schnikes! Is He gon issue his final Decision soon?

Bert Bzzzzzts
Answer:
Getting warmer, keep putting those thinking caps on!
Almost there, sooo close

Weeeeeee

P-edit mobile:

Impressed. I'll expend my pooch efforts to convince my friend, my friend's backpack and his dentist

That flubby seems super duper town!
Did I mention his mom's a dentist?

[Bert]

On a serious note I am a bit lost with every pair outside ETL/Flames hard-townreading each other!
Something is wrong! I got the most terrible feeling that maybe scum paired together, but that's out paranoiaing me pea brain
More likely answer is scum are "obvtowning" if that flames-ETL pair is all town!

Crud!!!
My solution is...still working on it!

But times running out and I ain't been here often

Sigh!

[Bert]

FLAMES

Come on down!!

You're the next contestant on The price is right!

[Bert]

what

1) Why is ETL scum? Who's she in cahoots with

2) Vote?

[Bert]

Category: World History for 600 bazingas!

Clue: this is Ceph's description of Mollie's scumgame in past games

Tick tock....

[Bert]

Yes, Lord Cephrir?

[Bert]

Best estimate for Saint mollie's partner in CRIME?

Put your answer in the red box! Closest will win a seekrit prize <33

[Bert]

what

1) Why is ETL scum? Who's she in cahoots with

2) Vote?

because people keep telling me not to but ill leave next post maybe

??

[Bert]

Hey Flames! Get back here!!

I can't tell if you're town that is genuinely Disengaged for your own valid reasons, or scum that is just avoiding associatives at this point

Your only reads list fits the profile of both

[Bert]

VOTE: ETL

[Bert]

iirc Ceph played well in Ice&Fire uPick, where i spectated in the qt. this game is wayyy shorter in length/players (and therefore easier), so the expressed lack of confidence yeah surprised me. BPC's lack of confidence doesn't surprise me. This is a micro where Ceph can play to the players in the game, kinda simple for him. my memory of that game eludes me at times and is very fuzzy since i wasnt a player

but, i do think Ceph AtE/flipping out is not indicative of his alignment here at all, the more he does that the more I will get zuzpizuz

maybe it's humility but yeah

[Bert]

Good job!

[Bert]

I hope I'm wrong about Flubby then!

[Bert]

If flub is scum, he turned down His scum buddy

If town, ETL asked him out cos she wanted to easily manipulate him

Hmm
/mobile

[Bert]

OK we have agreed that we are both working under the assumption that the game will continue past our death.

Bpc has very little confidence in his ability as a mafia player for one. Less than me and that's saying a lot.

I have no confidence in my scum hunting abailuty. I'm awesome as scum and uncertain and shitty as town

Oxymoron.

[Bert]

I think the most likely scenario may be that she was bussing someone, probably flames, and is changing tack now because it's convenient and because your pair also looks like it will be hard to break

now that the flames theory is debunked...updated thoughts?

my categories right now are this:

bpc is a huge wild card here if im going with the dark horse to win as scum in this game. hes more of an unknown to me that everyone has to account for in LYLO.

really good friends can still fool each other. so, i hope u 2 are completely positive that youre right about each other. i *think* common sense tells me ceph is way more experienced and is more likely to fool BPC, but like i said BPC is a huge wild card.

out of the anti-mollie pair,

in our skype chat, flub is down to ceph, then mollie. im at ceph, and my 2nd one is i feel like im underestimating antihero but i doubt it.

[Bert]

If flub is scum, he turned down His scum buddy

If town, ETL asked him out cos she wanted to easily manipulate him

Hmm
/mobile

so why did YOU ask flubby to dance?

I asked flubby because i know that i was almost left out in my dance experience. someone (a townie) suddenly changed his mind and accepted mine against the wishes of townmy very good ms friend gaiden was left out in his last try at this. my goal as a lady was to get to the dance. thats the goal regardless of my alignment. i knew i had no shot with antihero or bpc.



when i came into the game, i saw that multiple people were asking out BPC and antihero, the chemists. so i figured my only shot to live, was to ask out someone who can relate with being left out often or being lynchbait. flubber fit the bill. im more familiar with flubber than flames in past games, and i felt like flubber and i would get a long real well

[Bert]

it has to be flubby. just by poe

i told flubby i think we are going down, and we accept that.

i believe 4p is going to be a huge stalemate. we are going today, BUT we will try to figure this out in the case of the unknown.

[Bert]

taking off my biased goggles cos i feel like flubby is town:

as for scum motivation, ETL bussing Flubby with no reasoning for towncred does make sense. flubby and etl wanting to stay separate to make sure one correct lynch doesnt doom them makes sense.

what doesnt make sense is etl asking flubby out, and flubby acting super awkward about it and turning her down. i feel like if scum together, they could have planned that better. i know it.

but then again that could give HER a good reason to scumread flubber right away for the sketchy rejection.

[Bert]

I was feeling fabulous about Flubber being town in a voice call.

My opinion didn't mean much though as evidenced by the quicklynch in less than 12 hours before Flubber even got back on the computer so we could talk in the afternoon

I had a great time with the mechanics! Thank you Flubber for accepting and keeping me in the game!

[Bert]

We both weren't home before we got lynched.

But yeah I am pleased with Flubber's play. He went the extra mile outside the thread.

Good game guyz!