Mini 1627: Ninja Mini Mafia

[Varsoon]

My main issue with the super-aggressive early push is that it gives scum too much smokescreen and can potentially out a strong PR.
And maybe this comes back to my major problem with Claims--people give PR claims far too much weight.

[Thor665]

I disagree that activity and pushes equates to a scum smokescreen. Or, at least if it does, it's an inherent smokescreen - as lethargy and lack of activity allows a lurking smokescreen for scum, so basically all you're really saying is 'scum who already play that way will look more natural in the environment' to which I'll say 'sure?'. But that's not an inherent weakness of the playstyle - there will always be some scum who blend better in it than others - that's the nature of the game.

As far as PR reveals I see no reason why a claim early in the game is any more or less likely to reveal a PR than a claim later in the game - and I presume you're still okay with claims happening.

[Varsoon]

I think that the real danger of it is that it's an approach too easily manipulated by scum and too easily backfired by bad town.
That said, I see where you're coming from. I think it's way more effective in generating worthwhile content than typical RVS.

[Xiao Long]

Like what methods?
Because the early push claim gives you a wagon, reactions to the wagon, and a claim - all of which are, I'm of the opinion, the core components of information available to town on Day 1.

The difference between the early push and a mid-day push is that by mid-day is that others have made more posts and scum have already promoted and committed to certain ideas which leaves them less wiggle room as an early push. The early push is good for scum only pretty much.

^ But it's not like the only two options are super fast pushes are extremely long days. There are middle grounds. The problem is a lot of townies lack initiative and decision-making.

But by this point all you're arguing is the timeline. You seem to be of the opinion that some time is "too short" to get a claim and some time is "too long" my stance is that the time element is a mental lie - the only negatives to short is 'getting everyone involved/commenting' and the only negatives to long is 'diminishing interest/activity'.

I disagree. You have to realize that playing others is half the game and forcing super early claims isn't that helpful in that regard. The biggest negative is not allowing scum to display their approach towards the game and it throws townies off more than it does scum. Keep in mind I'm not advocating last second wagons.

[Xiao Long]

As far as PR reveals I see no reason why a claim early in the game is any more or less likely to reveal a PR than a claim later in the game - and I presume you're still okay with claims happening.

Really? If you don't allow any natural game development then it leaves no time for you to formulate good town reads thus knowing who you want to avoid forcing to claim. A page 2 l-1 claim like you were advocating is pure Russian Roulette.

I think that the real danger of it is that it's an approach too easily manipulated by scum and too easily backfired by bad town.
That said, I see where you're coming from. I think it's way more effective in generating worthwhile content than typical RVS.

It is more worthwhile than RVS, but then again everything is more worthwhile than RVS.

[Thor665]

The difference between the early push and a mid-day push is that by mid-day is that others have made more posts and scum have already promoted and committed to certain ideas which leaves them less wiggle room as an early push. The early push is good for scum only pretty much.

So really your debate is not about an aggressive push - it is about an aggressive push only after "people have committed to ideas".
I submit that the only ideas worth seeing who commits to is about who is willing to push what - so my rejoinder is that all a mid day push is - is an early push that took a while to happen.
Thoughts?

I disagree. You have to realize that playing others is half the game and forcing super early claims isn't that helpful in that regard. The biggest negative is not allowing scum to display their approach towards the game and it throws townies off more than it does scum. Keep in mind I'm not advocating last second wagons.

I see no reason why an early push is more disruptive to townies than to scum.
I agree that playing others is part of the game.
My point is - the valid information from others is based around who they are or are not genuinely willing to push - so the earlier we get to pushing the sooner we get that info and the sooner legit scumhunting can begin, all of which seems immensely pro-town to my mind.

Really? If you don't allow any natural game development then it leaves no time for you to formulate good town reads thus knowing who you want to avoid forcing to claim. A page 2 l-1 claim like you were advocating is pure Russian Roulette.

Are you seriously telling me that after a few pages you don't already kind of know who you are not valuing as an early push and who you are? I usually get a few townreads very early, and the others I don't get until serious pushes start happening or till day 2+ neither of which is negatively impacted by an earlier push - the first push of the day is almost always on some pants-on-head player or an experienced player who said something daft (or something people believe is daft) in regards to a wagon. It doesn't matter if it happens on page 5 or on page 15 except for the amount of time you waste getting to that point, and I also submit that very little legit scumhunting happens until that point is reached - so why delay it? So people can debate game theory and tell jokes? I don't buy that.

[Thor665]

I mean, how's this for a challenge - show me a serious Day 1 wagon that is *not* formed based off of how someone reacted to a wagon push (ruling out Daypower PRs - natch).
That is what basically all serious Day 1 wagons are based off of, and, off that early wagon comes the reactions that then form future Day 1 wagons and the basis for most read sets throught the remainder of the game. So, the true goal for scumhunting, in my mind, is to make that early, serious, people placing votes they mean, wagon to happen asap so scumhunting can commence in earnest.

You appear to be arguing the same thing but are trying to tell me that a slow build to that wagon somehow generates "better" reads...I don't get it, all the reads will be based off reactions to wagons. Usually the slow start of Day 1 is predicated on people not manning up and committing to a wagon.

Honestly, if I could have my way, I'd want to be able to replace into every game I play at the point that an L-1 wagon has formed - because at that point I can start scumhunting.
Prior to that, it's waiting for an L-1 wagon to be formed - because until that point you've got very little to go on.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

can i just say for a minute thor is my idol onsite and i agre with everything he says

[Varsoon]

Makes sense to me, although I think that any game can begin with serious scumhunting without having to have a 'trigger' like that.
RVS was meant to be a trigger but it lost its genuine worth once it became commonplace practice. I imagine the same could happen in regards to really any strategy.
Honestly, D1, wouldn't the strongest play be to make a lottery, where a random player is chosen for lynch (after claim)? Hell, I'd go so far as to say that in closed setups to just do an absolutely random D1 lynch. The info from the flip and the NK seem more valuable than the content posted, most the time.
But, eh, I like the game of rhetoric. It's why I play forum mafia.

[Thor665]

I would not support a lottery lynch. What I want is a lynch (And, I'll actually agree that I think the accuracy of a Day 1 lynch *is* lottery like) but that said, I want to see people either support or oppose the wagon, and hear thoughts as to why prior to seeing the flip. Reactions to a wagon are as (and, in my opinion, more) useful than the flip info itself.

@Orc - d'awwww, I lurvs you too.

[Formerfish]

Get a room you two! Its like watching old people fuck.

[Thor665]

I think that says something really strange about you, FF.

[Varsoon]

<3

[T S O]

No one should be flaming, but Orc's Chinese post is pretty bad...

滚走吧，小小台巴子

I put this into Google Translate and had a pleasant chuckle.

[Xiao Long]

xD
The Google Translate for that is so off.

[N]