Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[copper223]

@Eyes
While we are waiting, do you still think Dodgy is likely scum?

[Aneninen]

Catching-up.

Copper, 527 – a flawless observation. Indeed, I don't like playing scum. Stress might have something to do with it, yes, but basicly, it's about something else. You can check the scum QT of 573, I posted there why I'm playing (and loving) Mafia. Being a scum is much less useful for me. (If you're interested in, I can explain it post-game – or in the dead topic.)

Tean, 530 – he's not communicating with me at all. Am I the only one who finds this strange?!! Also, I won't comment his lines about KillaPenguin for certain reasons. And wow, he asks Penguin about Mastin! I think he's just trying to build up a wagon against her. Or setting up a later mislynch?

EyeStott, 542 – okay, I'm buying your claim for now. We'd lose more if we lynched a PR than we could lose if that had been a fake-claim. In the latter case he wouldn't get too far in the game anyway. Maybe I should ISO Dodgy later. Especially because his posts right after the claim. (Somehow I doubt that he kept on arguing with EyeStott and he realized only in 558 the claim.)

Copper, 553 – for your information: I was planning to mislynch Davesaz in that game but he claimed a town-PR. (And that claim was detrimental to my already-bad state.) As for KillerPenguin: I think Tean is scum so, if Penguin is scum too, their early fight has been a faking. What do you think? Is it possible?

Cooper, 568 – that is wrong!!!! In this setup there may be another Tracker too! If there is another tracker, claiming it is VERY bad for the town! It's simple math. Check the setup.

BBT, 583 and later posts – Do you remember NeuroScience Mafia? You were scumreading me for a long time. I gave answers for all of your questions. I even admitted that I had made a mistake before. You kept tunnelling me, regardless of my answers. In the end I voted for you because if someone plays the "Regardless of Card" (do you remember that concept?), that's auto-FoS for me and I started to think that you were a scum performing a deathtunnel.
So, let's make it short now: You are wrong. I'm town. Even if you don't believe it. I could answer all of your questions, point out all the errors in your posts but that wouldn't change your reads at all. And I don't have enough IRL time for this.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

That's nice.

I can guarantee you that one way to NOT get me off of you is to avoid answering my questions.

So, yeah. Can we lynch Anen now?

[dodgy56]

That's nice.

I can guarantee you that one way to NOT get me off of you is to avoid answering my questions.

So, yeah. Can we lynch Anen now?

definitely within lynching range at this point

[Aneninen]

Everyone can check Mini 1584 so as to see: answering BBT's questions didn't change anything. Sorry, but I simply don't have time to get involved in a prolonged fight which leads me nowhere. The only difference is that right now I don't think BBT is scum, because it's the same BBT I met there.

[dodgy56]

i could see copper and anen as buddies.

[copper223]

Copper, 553 – for your information: I was planning to mislynch Davesaz in that game but he claimed a town-PR. (And that claim was detrimental to my already-bad state.) As for KillerPenguin: I think Tean is scum so, if Penguin is scum too, their early fight has been a faking. What do you think? Is it possible?

I think it is unlikely, Killa is looking a lot worse than Tean now.

Cooper, 568 – that is wrong!!!! In this setup there may be another Tracker too! If there is another tracker, claiming it is VERY bad for the town! It's simple math. Check the setup.

The second tracker would be a 1-shot, you are making the same mistake Eyes did, if there is a full tracker out there he should absolutely claim.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I like that dodgy.

[dodgy56]

Copper, 553 – for your information: I was planning to mislynch Davesaz in that game but he claimed a town-PR. (And that claim was detrimental to my already-bad state.) As for KillerPenguin: I think Tean is scum so, if Penguin is scum too, their early fight has been a faking. What do you think? Is it possible?

I think it is unlikely, Killa is looking a lot worse than Tean now.

Cooper, 568 – that is wrong!!!! In this setup there may be another Tracker too! If there is another tracker, claiming it is VERY bad for the town! It's simple math. Check the setup.

The second tracker would be a 1-shot, you are making the same mistake Eyes did, if there is a full tracker out there he should absolutely claim.

i suggest you go back and read the setup. it is possible we could have 2 full trackers

[copper223]

I suggest you get a brain, I am trying not to be rude but the shit I have to read...

[dodgy56]

I suggest you get a brain, I am trying not to be rude but the shit I have to read...

thats ok ill save you the time then

VOTE: copper

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Dodgy, Anen please.

[copper223]

I suggest you get a brain, I am trying not to be rude but the shit I have to read...

thats ok ill save you the time then

VOTE: copper

[dodgy56]

Dodgy, Anen please.

we still have plenty of time to find scum

copper is still pushing for a pr reveal of a tracker even though numerous people have told him he could be wrong.
he then resorts to being rude.

that being said, would a scum push such an obviously bad plan and then double down on it when pressured? idk my gut tends to say no. but a town would see that its a bad plan once it was pointed out to them.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

We can lynch Copper tomorrow.

Let's lynch Anen toDay.

[dodgy56]

@ copper, below is from the setup rules as posted on the wiki link.

Investigation Roles
I = Tracker
II = Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker
III = Tracker, Tracker
IIII = Tracker, Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker
IIIII = Tracker, Tracker, Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker

This clearly shows that it is possible for us to have 2 (or even 3) full trackers. Please stop asking for tracker claims

[copper223]

I'll sum it up again, just in case one of you has the misfortune of being tracker and is not claiming:

There is a 7% probability of there being 2 full trackers in this setup.

If a tracker cc's here, 93 times out of 100 we have a guaranteed scum lynch within the first two days and close to a 50% chance of lynching scum on our first day.

This play is superior to any other possible lynch you could come up with day 1, in comparison the average lynch rate based on reads is close to the probability of randomly lynching scum (some say even worse), which in this setup averages roughly 25% (half as much).

So if you are tracker it's necessary for you to claim here.

[dodgy56]

I'll sum it up again, just in case one of you has the misfortune of being tracker and is not claiming:

There is a 7% probability of there being 2 full trackers in this setup.

If a tracker cc's here, 93 times out of 100 we have a guaranteed scum lynch within the first two days and close to a 50% chance of lynching scum on our first day.

This play is superior to any other possible lynch you could come up with day 1, in comparison the average lynch rate based on reads is close to the probability of randomly lynching scum (some say even worse), which in this setup averages roughly 25% (half as much).

So if you are tracker it's necessary for you to claim here.

ok clearly i was misundestanding your reasoning, i thought you were suggesting that we couldnt have 2 full trackers. you are actually just suggesting that it is unlikely. That i can buy more.

[copper223]

It is not a relevant scenario for deciding what to do, maybe tomorrow the US is going to go bankrupt, let's all not buy treasury bonds anymore because they clearly are unsafe based on this assumption.

[Aneninen]

Okay, even if I know that you won't accept it, I'll give you an answer for something, BBT.

You wrote this:

"Anen, again, this is an opportunistic time to be jumping on the eye wagon. Can you give your reasoning for eye!scum? 'Eyestott may be okay' does not quite qualify you to join the wagon."

First of all, I've already gave my reasons for my scumreads. I strongly think that Davesaz is town, because of his gameplay and because of the quick emergence of his wagon, without any counterwagons. So, I examined the players on that wagon, because there must be at least one scum there. My strongest scumread, as I wrote before, was and is Tean. But, I thought that EyeStott is possibly scum too – but not together with Tean.
I intentionally stayed away from that wagon because

I wanted to see who puts him at L–1

. Putting players at L–1 is a best way for the scums to force townies to claim. Unfortunately, EyeStott claimed at L–2 so my plan didn't work. After his vote Penguin said that it was an L–1 but it wasn't. I know it's very FoS that I don't essentially scumread Penguin for that, but (1) I too think it's unlikely that both Tean and Penguin are scum and in other cases I don't want to push Penguin right now. Hint: there's a reason for it and you noticed that reason too in one of your posts. However, I interpreted Penguin in a different way.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Can you answer everything I asked you and not just select questions that suit you?

[Aneninen]

Can you summarize your questions in a separate post? Frankly, I don't have too much time.

[Aneninen]

As for my readlist. What the hell do you expect on Day1? Detailed and firm reads on everyone? All I could do was to collect the pro-s and the con-s for the players. Most of the game has been (1) nullposts (2) pushing the Davesaz-wagon and (3) pushing the Eyestott wagon. Apart from those, very few things have happened so far.
However, you're right about one thing. I should examine the Eyestott wagon thouroughly whether I can find something useful there too. (Providing that Eyestott's claim is real.)

[Aneninen]

What else do you have at all? I've quick-checked your posts and I've found nothing else.

[eyestott]

@Eyes
While we are waiting, do you still think Dodgy is likely scum?

Yes. I believe he is trying to bail ship on the wagon of a PR. If he actually thought I was scum, he would likely keep some pressure on, question me.