Okay, everyone!
Here's the story.
(1) The Mafia
had known
the zone of the Setup (5–7 Ts, 3–4 Ts or 0–2 Ts)
before the game started
.
(2) On Day1 Copper fake-claimed. They must have made their plan after this fake-claim, at Night1. (I think it happened then, but they might have created it pre-game too.)
(3) On Day2, we saw that there were two kills. Since noone claimed a Vig-shot, it became clear that there's an SK. But,
by that point, the Mafia knew CLEARLY what the Setup really was!
(4) Soon it got clear that the Setup is either TTT or T (4 PRs or 6 PRs) – but, as I said, the Mafia knew which one of them! I was against the massclaim all the time, because I saw how beneficial it to the Mafia-team could be.
Let's stop here for a second. Originally, I thought the massclaim will result a WIFOM. If it's T and all the claims are real, all the Mafia must be amongst the VTs. But,
TTT is FIVE times more likely than T!
(TTT has a chance of 35/128, while T is only 7/128.)
Why is it a WIFOM? Because, if there are six claims, mathematically it's about 16.67% that all of the claims are real and about 83.33% that two of them are fake. Of course, after six claims what would have the town think? This: the Setup is T and all the scums are amongst the VT-claims, even if there's only a 16.67% chance for it. Ignoring the possibility of
having EXACTLY TWO fake-claims!
(5) Therefore,
the Mafia planned TWO fake-claims
(and the Setup is TTT). One of these is Copper. The other fake-claim should have been Tean – but, he's not here! (That has been the single error in their plan.) Had he claimed, the situation written in (4) would have occoured.
But, suddenly the town got stuck in a situation which is unpleasant for them: there are five claims, so, it's clear that one of them is fake! Is it Copper? Or BBT? What did the Mafia think?
"If the town lynched BBT, it would be bad for Copper... but, it's still better than a Copper-lynch which not only hurts us but also clears BBT. Unless... we prolong the Day until the Tean-slot gets filled and everything can go on according to the original plan."
(6)
So. Copper is scum and he fake-claimed.
The Tean-slot is the second scum.
(I wouldn't surprised if the replacement instantly claimed a PR.)
Heartless must be the third one
, mostly because of some interactive tells (pointed out by eg. BBT), also eg. the
"Heartless vote for me"
sentence from Copper (Copper's reasoning in
1454 about the topic is pigeon poop.) But, their post:
"hammering before a Tean replacement is a scum claim"
made that very likely. (Check out the context. NOONE was about to hammer Copper at that time. I also asked everyone about the possibilities of a Tean-PR-claim in
1418 and noone has f-cking answered!)
I must admit, I have no idea why Heartless didn't claim a PR. Maybe Tean is the Mafia JOAT and he needs to be protected...?
As for the SK, I have no idea. One thing is clear: the SK is among the VT-claims. It's most probably Beast (but as I said, I'll re-ISO him) or (less likely?) Mastin. If BBT's town, Penguin is town too. (And I've been townreading Penguin for a long time, regardless of BBT.) If Wicked is the SK, then simply f-ck off.
