Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[copper223]

@Heartless
Thanks for the defense TTH and I agree on Beast though he is a hard read because he seems always scummy to me from looking at his games, so I'd prefer for town not to lynch him first tomorrow, but the only thing I want to know is how sure you are Vettrock is not scum.

[Heartless]

For vettrock, there's the reaction to eyestott's claim that you've already quoted. For vettrock to be scum, he had to have planned this fake claim after seeing eyestott's. The plan would've had to involve being cryptic and mysterious about it to start off, but specific

enough

to lock him into the specific one-shot tracker claim. I suppose it's not impossible, but it's really far stretch and the odds are a lot better that he's town given the way he went about the claim. There's also the fact that the people behind the vettrock push to start Day 2 are shady characters; BBT and mastin come to mind.

I think the chances of vettrock being scum are very low.

[vettrock]

I don't disagree, they literally don't make sense because the support does not allow for them, otherwise an SK would not be in the game.

I will give you the benefit of being able to realize those reads are impossible if you genuinenly thought about it as town, hence you presenting that crap makes you likely scum just pulling out some convenient scumreads.

They make no sense to YOU. Keyword there is YOU.

Town:
Anen - I feel like what they say comes from a town POV. I just like them. You could chalk this up to gut I guess.
Mastin - I feel like mastin has this ego that gets in her way. It isn't an undeserved ego persay but it still gets in her way. She reminds me of when she defended me for fake claiming the same thing as my scum partner in a large theme recently.
Vettrock - Claim
Killa - They don't shut up about wanting to lynch me. It doesn't feel like a push for a mislynch from scum because scum would eventually give up and be like: "Fuck it, beast isn't happening so lets find someone else." Also, scum would want to keep me alive because I was behind and useless.

Null:
Wicked - I don't really remember anything about them.
Tean - I don't know anything about them.

Scum:
Cooper - If any PR is scum it is you. I don't see any town motivation from this slot.
Heartless - Already said my case about them reminding me of that other game.
BBT - Kind of explained this but they have inconsistencies with their claim and actions.

We still have Tean to claim.

If we assume Tean claims VT, one of the three PR is scum. From my point of view that is copper or BBT. Like I said before, I'm leaning towards BBT, but copper is the safer lynch. Hider is much more valuable to town if true, and if copper is town and vengeful, he can take down scum with him. This is a one town for one scum trade. If copper is scum, we just lynched scum, and the hider if he chooses wisely is still around tomorrow, and is conf town along with Killa and whoever he hides behind.

If Tean claims a PR, either two of the claims are lying (I'd lean towards Tean being one of them), or all 4 are town. If 4 PRs are true this means that there was 6 PR's in the game which (assuming the earlier math is correct) is a 5% chance. This still leads me to believe with 95% certainty that one of copper and BBT is scum.

I really do think that going down the lynch beastcharizard route is still the best to go, we don't end up lynching a PR prematurely and after the night deaths we will have a good idea on who is scum.

One of the PRs is very, very likely scum. Much more likely than any other VT claimed player at this point.

[copper223]

Fine I trust you guys on this one, it's a bit scary that nobody is pushing on Vettrock now but you are right that Mastin has been shady as fuck this whole game minus the very early RVS where justification for pushes were not needed and I really don't see her scum with Vettrock.

I also fail to understand the scum fakeclaim from BBT because getting a trade with me if his teammates are along the lines of Mastin, Beast and Tean, is actually pretty bad for scum, meh.

[Heartless]

BlueBloodedToffee (1) - Heartless
Heartless (1) - beastcharizard
copper223 (5) - mastin2, vettrock, Wickedestjr, BlueBloodedToffee, Aneninen
beastcharizard (1) - killapenwin

Not Voting: Tean Samargo, copper223

how's this VCA for you, bbt?

OMG DAVEZ WAZ SO SCUMZ GUYS

BUT THIS UNOPPOSED COPPER WAGON
IS SO ABSURDLY BEAUTIFUL

[beastcharizard]

Oh, alright. For a second there I though you were changing your story again... wait a minute.

Tell me, did we kill eyestott or dodgy?

I have called you scum this whole time.

Also, I don't know you tell me.

[beastcharizard]

Beast though he is a hard read because he seems always scummy to me from looking at his games

This is really refreshing to read. We should play a game when I am actually scum.

[Heartless]

davesaz (7) - Tean Samargo,

Mastin2

, Heartless, beastcharizard,

Wickedestjr

,

vettrock

, copper223
copper223 (5) -

mastin2

,

vettrock

,

Wickedestjr

, BlueBloodedToffee, Aneninen

3/5 more than half the copper wagon was on dave, AND if beast hammers (he's been calling copper scum), that'll make 4

IT'S THE SAME FUCKING PEOPLE

so, i'm sorry bbt, how is it that it's

OMG SO SCUMZORZ

about the dave wagon but

OH SO TOWNIE

about the copper one given the shit distribution and lack of a counterwagon

[Heartless]

Oh, alright. For a second there I though you were changing your story again... wait a minute.

Tell me, did we kill eyestott or dodgy?

I have called you scum this whole time.

Also, I don't know you tell me.

OH FUCK NO YOU HAVEN'T YOU SHEEPED US ONTO THE DAVE WAGON YOU LIAR

[Heartless]

Also, I don't know you tell me.

as sk we shot at ppl we scum read.

we scum read neither eyestott nor dodgy.

[beastcharizard]

Oh, alright. For a second there I though you were changing your story again... wait a minute.

Tell me, did we kill eyestott or dodgy?

I have called you scum this whole time.

Also, I don't know you tell me.

OH FUCK NO YOU HAVEN'T YOU SHEEPED US ONTO THE DAVE WAGON YOU LIAR

I meant I haven't called you mafia. You made it seem like I called you mafia this whole time when I haven't.

Also, ok sure.

[Aneninen]

I've read the posts but I don't have time to answer them. There are interesting things that are worth responding to.
Also, I'll examine other possibilities in case of my theory is wrong.

[Wickedestjr]

davesaz (7) - Tean Samargo,

Mastin2

, Heartless, beastcharizard,

Wickedestjr

,

vettrock

, copper223
copper223 (5) -

mastin2

,

vettrock

,

Wickedestjr

, BlueBloodedToffee, Aneninen

3/5 more than half the copper wagon was on dave, AND if beast hammers (he's been calling copper scum), that'll make 4

IT'S THE SAME FUCKING PEOPLE

so, i'm sorry bbt, how is it that it's

OMG SO SCUMZORZ

about the dave wagon but

OH SO TOWNIE

about the copper one given the shit distribution and lack of a counterwagon

Ughh... I am getting sick of this card. vettrock is town, I am town, Aneninen is town, BBT is

probably

town... If there's scum on that wagon then it's mastin, but I'm not sure that she is scum either. Who are the scum on this bandwagon? I think copper is very suspicious and see nothing weird about the way his bandwagon formed. Have you read my points w.r.t. copper? I don't see what you're seeing.

[Wickedestjr]

Seriously hoping we can get a claim from Tean's slot before day ends. A few players have assumed that they'll claim VT, but I see no reason to make that assumption and it is the single reason why I have avoided setup speculation. If Tean's slot is scum planning to claim PR, then letting them survive this lynch without claiming is a huge advantage for them. If Tean is town, then their claim could yield very helpful information which is more powerful if earlier imo.

Again,

Mod: Can we please have a deadline extension for our replacement?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

BlueBloodedToffee (1) -

Heartless

Heartless (1) - beastcharizard
copper223 (5) - mastin2, vettrock, Wickedestjr, BlueBloodedToffee, Aneninen
beastcharizard (1) - killapenwin

Not Voting:

Tean Samargo

,

copper223

It's quite simple really, there is no CW because two scum are not voting.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I mean, you're pushing me Heartless and Copper is trying to say I'm scum so he is already set up to join my wagon if it builds.

So, it's not like scum aren't trying to get a CW going. You're just not doing a very good job of it. A 3rd scum member would help though, I'm sure. Keep reminding everyone we need to wait for a Tean replacement.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.7

killapenwin (0) -
BlueBloodedToffee (1) - Heartless
Heartless (1) - beastcharizard
copper223 (4) - mastin2, vettrock, BlueBloodedToffee, Aneninen
vettrock (0) -
Aneninen (0) -
Wickedestjr (0) -
beastcharizard (2) - killapenwin, Wickedestjr
Tean Samargo (0) -
mastin2 (0) -

Not Voting: Tean Samargo, copper223

With 10 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Tuesday, February 3rd at 10:30 pm PST which is in (expired on 2015-02-03 22:30:00)

[Jackal711]

This is getting ridiculous. This game is a bit big for most of the replacement crowd. No offers.

Deadline is suspended

and will be set to

3 days (72 hours)

after the replacement is found.

[killapenwin]

Everyone seems pretty convinced Tean is scum regardless of any claim he makes, yet focus is on the lynching of PR's? Even if 1 of them is certain scum we have the ones remaining after the night to grill tomorrow.

Need I remind you that Vettrock is not conf tracker or conf town, he has not used his ability and scum would know day 1 that Eyestott was town, which isn't proof either.

PR's should be dealt with tomorrow, mislynching any of them now just helps scum.

[Aneninen]

Catching-up.

@Aneninen
Have fun reading that after I flip.

At least it means you are likely town, not that that helps much, I will scumread you on purpose from now on.

If my teammate the Tean slot fake claims, lynch him tomorrow.¹@Killa
I already claimed, Vettrock already softed (at least 3 players saw it) so

if he is real he was already dead, you fishing for his role together with genius Aneninen ensured his death if anything

, BBT is fake claiming.²

(1) How does that make sense? You think that I'm town but you're scumreading me because of ...?
(2) Okay, I believe that some players got his hints. But still, you should have waited until he claims, instead of outing him. I don't understand the highlighted part at all.

As for Beast–MonkeyMan, in general. Because of the site rules I'm not explaining my reads but I can tell this: it's very unlikely that he's Mafia, according to my knowledge his Mafia-play is entirely different. However, it's possible that he's the SK. His gameplay is similar to the town-Monkey–Beast I saw before... but, not identical. I can't explain this difference but it's there.

Copper, 1416/1492 –

"I want a poll from each of you about who I should shoot, between the PR's and someone else if you think it would be better (if so add why)."

That idea is very bad and I don't think it could have come from a town mindset.
But, okay, let's assume for a second that you're a Vengeful. If your Vengekill is discussed and you're about to kill a Townie, at least one of the scums will jump on your wagon and you'll end up hammered, killing a Townie and eventually, the game is most probably lost.

Heartless, 1497 – what you're saying about Copper might be true... but it has come from the wrong slot.

"I would have to think copper's teammates would be making their move on BBT or vettrock."

– it

look

good, but your vote is on BBT, and the Tean-slot is empty. What if this post has been a blatant hard-defense?
As for 1501 – can you point out where Vettrock made it obvious (via his hints) that he's a 1-Shot?

Vettrock, 1502 – I know that I'm talking against my Copper-case now, but you're wrong. Lynching Copper is

much more

risky than BBT. (That'swhy I had been hesitant for a long time to vote for Copper before I did so.) If Copper's scum – which I think the case is –, hurray, and you're right, BBT might be able to confirm another townie Tonight. But if Copper's town, everything can be lost if he Vengekills a townie. If we mislynch BBT, we lose a powerful PR indeed, but our chances are better later.

Heartless, 1507 – Whut? Are you telling that the scumteam consists of Mastin, Wicked and Vettrock?! WTFLMAO!

________

Also, I'm going to summarize my thoughts about all the "possible scenarios". I also know that even if I'm confident about my theory posted in 1468, I'll lose the game for the town if I'm wrong.

[copper223]

@Aneninen
Because if you are town, a read I gave mid day 1, you are so mafia sided here I want you policy lynched so I will just D1 lynch you out of my games, at least that is what I was saying there, which I admit is pretty harsh but the ideas you are coming up with, while they make some sense as a paranoid townie, are pretty crazy if you actually are town. The highlighted means scum would have NK'd him tonight anyway if he actually is 1-shot so what we got from the mass claim is 1 almost sure fake claim and a decent shot at lynching scum today, which (Killa) is absolutely vital if town wants to have a chance.

I never said I was going to follow your suggestions reagarding the poll, that was a probe to find out if someone is still pushing on Vettrock, because other than Mastin and partly you everyone else seems happy to scumread BBT but is finding some reason to vote for me instead, I really dislike Wicked's push for instance, and there is a world where Heartless is just pocketing me so I go ahead and shoot the wrong guy, it's scary to think that if Vettrock is scum we just lose with my shot and his soft is not impossible to do as scum, I would think about it for instance.

It doesn't really matter anymore because the posturing BBT has been doing in this last few pages, especially that comment about him not being the lynch for today so I should self hammer, the gloating about getting me lynched and that massive slip about the vengeful plus the association with Mastin who has been a giant lurksack today other than to quickly jump on me after your "case" means I am likely not changing my mind on him.

[Aneninen]

Copper. Wait for my next post. You might find it informative.

[copper223]

Sure

[BlueBloodedToffee]

If you somehow flip town and shoot me you lose the game for town.

I'm telling you that right now.

[Aneninen]

So, here are the possible scenarios I can see. Feel free to post more if I've left out some things and correct my thoughts if I've made some mistakes.

(1) My original theory (posted in 1468): the mafia-team is Copper–Tean–Heartless and the SK may be Beast (or Mastin?). See that in the linked post. Keep in mind that this is possible regardless of the Tean-slot's forthcoming claim.

In all of my following points I'll assume that this theory is

wrong

.

(2) Tean claims VT and he's telling the truth. In this case, exactly one of the PR-claims is fake. According to my reads, the most probable fake is Copper, the least probable is Vettrock. The best gameplay seems to be this: lynching Copper and he Vengekills BBT. This won't work if Vettrock is scum.

Overall possibility: it's possible

(I must admit.)

(3) The situation is the same as (1), but vice versa: the scumteam is BBT–Tean–??? (regardless of Tean's claim). In this case BBT would be a better lynch than Copper. Question: who's the third Mafia in this case? According to BBT's gameplay, I can't see a clear answer.

Overall possibility: not impossible

– but I find Copper scummier than BBT.

(4) Tean claims VT, all of the claims are real. According to the setup it has very little chance. Also, this would mean that Heartless, Wicked, Mastin and Beast are scum. (BBT's Hiding clears Penguin.) I've never met Wicked before, but if all of the other three players were scum, they would have ended this Day by now, most preferably before Tean's claim. Right now we can find these four players on four different wagons. In this case, our best gameplay would be lynching Beast or Heartless.

Overall possibility: almost impossible

(5) Both Copper and BBT are scum. This possible only if Tean claims a PR. In this case it'll be very hard to catch them both, lynching BOTH of them (one of them Today, the next one Tomorrow) would be very risky. A couple of days ago I thought their interaction with each other were fake but now I think that it's a "genuine" fight, not a "scum-vs-scum" faking. In this case BBT would be a better lynch, I think. But how to catch Copper if BBT flips scum...? Who else is scum in this case? I really, really hope that this point is not true.

Overall possibility: not too likely

(6) Vettrock and either Copper or BBT is faking. Frankly, I have no idea what to do in this case. Maybe we should talk about this after a scum-flip. Vettrock might have planned his hints and his fake-claim on Day1... but if he indeed hinted 1-shot, that would have been a very risky thing to do. (What if there were a real 1-shot Tracker?)

Overall possibility: almost impossible

– but, might be more possible if Vettrock never hinted 1-shot

(7) The Tean-slot claims VT and the SK is faking a PR. / The Tean-slot claims PR and one Mafia and the SK is faking a PR. I doubt these, if Copper or BBT were the SK, they would have been lynched by now since there would be no buddies around to defend him (either by direct defense, or by pushing another wagon). So, in this case Vettrock might be the SK... but, I don't think this point is likely at all.

Overall possibility: almost impossible

(8) Copper is faking as town and he's a Vigilante. I'd hate this. Personally, I don't think it would have been a good idea from Copper but it's possible that he wanted to help the town and it went very wrong. In this case, there's no SK and Tean must claim a PR.

Overall possibility: ???

– Copper, this is your last chance to admit this! If you do so, I'll unvote you.

(9) "Lying Townies". I'd include everything that involves a faking townie, eg. claiming a PR as VT or vice versa. There's nothing we can do if this is the case, I think.

Overall possibility: impossible

(...or at least I hope so.)

________

So, I'm open to all suggestions and corrections.