Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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BlueBloodedToffee Survivor
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Aneninen HeVery Important PigeonHe
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Maybe, Heartless, maybe not. Read what I posted in my "off".
Titus. I'll write a summary as soon as I have time (I'm cleaning up the flat meanwhile) and if you accept it from me. (My slot is mostly townread. Other townread slots are KillaPenguin, Wicked and maybe Vettrock – the latter one is under constant discussion.)
________
post-edit.
...WHAAAAAAAAT?????!!!!!
UNVOTE:
I need to reconsider everything.
No, BBT. I can't explain it. But I need to go on with the cleaning-up.-
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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In post 1331, Heartless wrote:ok, setup
7 letters, there's almost certainly an sk here so probably odd number of t's
flips: tracker, jk
claims: 1-shot tracker, hider, vengeful
flips: IPXXXXX
claims: IIPHKXX
not a lot of t's in the claimed scenario
someone better than me at math, what's the probability of 2 or fewer t's?
Updated:
Flips: Tracker, Jailkeeper
Claims: 1-shot tracker, Hider, Vengeful, Vigilante
Flips: IPXXXXX
Claims: IIPHKKT
Well it seems we have a slight problem here.
VOTE: Titus-
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BlueBloodedToffee Survivor
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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In post 1551, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Can someone explain to me what Titus' claim means for set-up spec?
There's a few problems:
With the claimed setup, there should be three kills at play.*
Optimal play for Tean night 1 as a vigilante would have been to shoot copper, as already discussed.*
The number of claimed T's has an approximately 5% chance of occurring.*
The "missing" kill on Night 1 could be explained by overlapping kills or a failed kill, but the other probabilistic evidence is stacked against that.-
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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Hold on, I just saw something. UNVOTE:-
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Jackal711 Mafia Scum
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VOTE COUNT 2.8
killapenwin (0) -
BlueBloodedToffee (0) -
Heartless (1) - beastcharizard
copper223 (3) - mastin2, vettrock, BlueBloodedToffee
vettrock (0) -
Aneninen (0) -
Wickedestjr (0) -
beastcharizard (2) - killapenwin, Wickedestjr
Titus (0) -
mastin2 (0) -
Not Voting: Titus, copper223, Aneninen, Heartless
With 10 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
Deadline is suspended pending resolution of the copper replacement.-
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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I am doing math now.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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Oh, I'm stupid.
Titus is clear.-
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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is she...?
no, i think you had it right tth
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beastcharizard Mafia Scum
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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In post 1553, Heartless wrote:Claims: IIPHKKT
ok
well, first off:
there's fake pr claims
...
damn, nowi'mfucking my own mind w/ math-
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beastcharizard Mafia Scum
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In post 1555, Heartless wrote:The "missing" kill on Night 1 could be explained by overlapping kills or a failed kill, but the other probabilistic evidence is stacked against that.
You also have the bus driver in the game which could also explain it or the roleblock.-
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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We have known
T and P. I am K. Vengeful is another K. Hider is H. Oneshot tracker is T.
We have (if all PRs are telling the truth), IIPKKH.
That leaves 1 T left. Which leaves an sk.
To roll at least many PRs means only one could come back vt. There are one hundred twenty eight different PR to VT combos alone.
But there are 7 different methods to get this number of PRs.
So the odds a PR is not lying are
7/128.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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Can y'all put the claims in an easy place fot me?ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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beastcharizard Mafia Scum
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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In post 1561, beastcharizard wrote:How is Titus clear?
It's due to the number of T's. An even number of T's translates to a single scum faction. An odd number of T's translates to two scum "factions", in which we would see three kills per night assuming Titus is telling the truth.
At first I thought, "If Titus was a faker, that would mean there are an even number of T's, which produces a paradox. There are no SKs at two T's and the mafia can't just pull two kills out of their ass. Therefore Titus must be town." Then I remembered that there were a bunch of other claims at play. :S
This will take some time to parse.-
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beastcharizard Mafia Scum
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beastcharizard Mafia Scum
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beastcharizard Mafia Scum
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Heartless Jack of All Trades
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In post 1553, Heartless wrote:Flips: Tracker, Jailkeeper
Claims: 1-shot tracker, Hider, Vengeful, Vigilante
flips
dave: vt
eyestott: tracker
dodgy: jailkeeper
claims
vettrock: 1-shot tracker
bbt: hider
copper's slot: vengeful
titus: vig
beast: vt
mastin: vt
heartless: vt
anen: vt
wicked: vt
killa: vt-
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beastcharizard Mafia Scum
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In post 55, Tean Samargo wrote:A haiku with love:
I don't like penguins.
Go back to Antarctica.
Vote: killapenwin
The poem spells out Vig if you rearrange the letters.-
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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So basically, we have proven that two PRs must be lying in order for me to be scum. Me plus someone else.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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Who did BBThide behind N1?ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!
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