Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[TellTaleHeart]

This all still doesn't make sense to me. :S

Maybe it will in the morning.

[Untrod Tripod]

talk down at me much? I don't have to justify jack

vote LlamaFluff

dance, puppet, dance

[LlamaFluff]

talk down at me much? I don't have to justify jack

When you are doing something you absolutely should know better than to do if you are town: yes

You are a better player than to put someone at L-1 on the second page of a game and act like you did, so you bet I am going to call you out on doing something stupid. The more you setup the possibility for someone else to screw stuff up the more likely it might happen, and when you setup the blame to be placed on someone else before it even happens and try and chalk it up to "reaction testing", that makes you a good scum pick instead of just aloof town as well.

[Futan]

Morning. I see I'm late to the party again.

Apologies. Am travelling today, will be back full time tomorrow.

[GuyInFreezer]

Question validity... of what?

It seems odd to me that you acknowledge the existence of a list of players Equinox listed as having played with CES before by acting surprised that you were a part of it, and then ignored any merits or lack thereof. I could understand just ignoring it, but you indirectly mention it.

Also why UT

"Reaction testing" is a cop out to allow yourself to get away with scummy stuff.

Won't you be surprised when someone told you something that you weren't aware of? Flat out ignoring something that you weren't aware of is something I can not understand.
(On an unrelated note, I thought it was MoS who I played with in fortnight.)
Not every reaction test is not a cop out. L-1 reaction test is something people pulls time to time and when scums pull it off, they do it not to get away with free lynch but rather to wifom the "scum won't do it because it attracts too much attention".

I feel like you are pushing it because it was on your wagon that he put down a L-1 vote.
If as you described town - UT is not dumb enough to do it, what justifies that he's dumb as scum to do it?

Even though I say negative things like this, I don't think you're scum. Granted I've never seen your scumgame but I have seen you being biased like this as town. And my gut leans town anyway. I think you're reaching on UT.

(By the way I think UT is town too)

[GuyInFreezer]

"What bias, gif?"

Well if you look at llama's post I quoted
- "gif town would be smart enough to not show his surprise and ignore so he avoids useless suspicion but gif scum would be dumb enough to not do the same"
- "UT town would be smart enough to not lolvote someone to L-1 but UT scum would be dumb enough to do so."

These "town is smart scum is dumb" bias sounds like one coming from town.

Of course, I could be wrong and llama could be scum just grasping something hanging low to get out of l-1 from lol reason, but as I said I don't have his scum meta and I let my gut choose for me.

[LlamaFluff]

- "gif town would be smart enough to not show his surprise and ignore so he avoids useless suspicion but gif scum would be dumb enough to not do the same"- "UT town would be smart enough to not lolvote someone to L-1 but UT scum would be dumb enough to do so."

Both not quite

I think if you were town, your reaction would be a "why are you coming to this conclusion" as opposed to "why am I in this list" or at least a mix of the two
For UT I think he could have done it as either alignment, but willfully null to scum play is more likely to come from scum although it does somewhat often come from reckless town.

That's my reaction more than scum is dumb... its scum is more likely to be willfully ignorant/make suboptimal play that benefits scum if they think they can get away with it

[petroleumjelly]

Day One, Vote Count #3

LlamaFluff – 5 – ChannelDelibird, TellTaleHeart, Equinox, prawneater, Untrod Tripod
Untrod Tripod – 2 – Derangement, Onion Bubs
Derangement – 1 – onion
GuyInFreezer – 1 – LlamaFluff
TellTaleHeart – 1 – GuyInFreezer

With

11 alive

it takes

6

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is

March 5, 2015, at 6:45 AM PST

.

Not Voting – 1 – Futan

[Untrod Tripod]

can't help but notice that the main thrust of the argument we're hearing from Llama is "this play is suboptimal" not "you're about to lynch town"

[Untrod Tripod]

======[]

[Onion Bubs]

talk down at me much? I don't have to justify jack

(mindywhy.gif - now used twice in one game day)

While I wait, I'm gonna take a look at LlamaFluff's posts because, like TellTaleHeart, I'm struggling to make sense of them.

So I should vote the player that posted more because they have posted more?

I'm fairly sure that's not what TellTaleHeart was saying. Or at least, if I said the words that she said, this is not what I would've been saying.

The more someone has posted, the more you have about them to analyse, thus the more accurate your read on them can be. So how come, when you have a player who's posted twice and a player who's posted ten times, do you have more faith in your read of the person with only 20% as many posts as the other to the point that you would be willing to vote for them first? Lurking notwithstanding of course. The only thing that makes sense from a townie point of view is that you think the content of the first player's two posts is scummier than the combined content of the second player's ten posts.

The part of what Equinox posted that GIF latched onto makes more sense to make scum feel uneasy than it makes for town to feel uneasy, especially when you pair it that he basically ignored the post otherwise. UT has no real posts that read as scum or town except for trying to leave me at L-1 and immediately shift blame if I was hammered. I don't really care at all about him calling a couple of people town, its not alignment indicative at all.

And this is where my understanding of your thought processes fails me. You don't see the rush to L-1 as being at least as scummy as GuyInFreezer's response to Equinox's hypothesis? I'm sorry, but until I get an explanation (no, Untrod Tripod, a name of a technique and a basic definition of what it is doesn't count as an explanation) of why a townie would do such a thing, I cannot see rushing someone to L-1 as being anything but scummy. I can at least imagine a possible explanation for GuyInFreezer's post: perhaps he supports Equinox's hypothesis but just wants to clarify something he is puzzled about, in which case the post isn't alignment indicative.

UT I would vote because he should know better than to do what he did, but a lot of people just like to do reckless things because they apparently find doing reckless things fun or something like that. If it was someone that is super conservative as a player and takes little to no risks, I would have jumped on it hard. UT is more of a "does whatever" type who will just do scummy things that they think is justified or thinks aren't scummy when a majority of the players will think it is.

Are you saying you'll let people get away with scummy shit because of their past? Are you saying you're OK with his recklessness because it's a thing with him? That you're fine with him potentially fucking things up for the town because it's how he rolls?

(isthatwhatyouresaying.gif - wow, two animated gifs in one post!)

[Derangement]

can't help but notice that the main thrust of the argument we're hearing from Llama is "this play is suboptimal" not "you're about to lynch town"

Maybe it's just me, but as far as I can tell, saying "you're about to lynch town" is as unconvincing an argument for one's innocence as it is easy to type.

Would you really have been appeased if he'd said that, instead of actually trying to build a case on the people who he thinks are scum?

I'd also like to ask you not to simply ignore the points Llama is bringing up about you, if that's okay.

[Untrod Tripod]

it's a point of what perspective the main argument is coming from

and to me it looks like not-town

[Untrod Tripod]

like, this right here is mafia, guys. figuring out perspectives and alignments based on the types of arguments people make.

no one is going to walk in here and hand you an alignment, and this shit is subtler than "yeah only mafia would ever put someone at L-1 early"

christ almighty why are you people trying to figure this shit out on black and white tells? those DON'T EXIST outside of newbie games.

[Onion Bubs]

like, this right here is mafia, guys. figuring out perspectives and alignments based on the types of arguments people make.

And

on the way people behave, right?

[TellTaleHeart]

Morning. I see I'm late to the party again.

Apologies. Am travelling today, will be back full time tomorrow.

UNVOTE:
Need to see this.

[Untrod Tripod]

this is out of game, like a meta point, so please understand I'd say this as either alignment:

I like you bubs. you're going to be really good at this one day if you keep trying as hard as you are this game.

[Untrod Tripod]

but your motivational/behavior analysis wrt to me is based on a flawed and stubborn understanding of how people play and what motivates them

I don't really care if you learn that until after this game, but just keep it in your mind for later

[Untrod Tripod]

Morning. I see I'm late to the party again.

Apologies. Am travelling today, will be back full time tomorrow.

UNVOTE:
Need to see this.

why are you waiting of Futan? what are you waiting on him for?

do you think he's trying to wait it out so he didn't have to comment on or participate in the Llama wagon?

[Untrod Tripod]

I mean, unless you're scum and you're rolling me right now. I guess that's possible.

[TellTaleHeart]

why are you waiting of Futan? what are you waiting on him for?
do you think he's trying to wait it out so he didn't have to comment on or participate in the Llama wagon?

I have reads on everybody except him and his earlier post implies he'll be back very shortly. I'm willing to wait for the catch-up.
I doubt this is a ploy to wait out the Llama wagon.

[Untrod Tripod]

mmk

[Derangement]

like, this right here is mafia, guys. figuring out perspectives and alignments based on the types of arguments people make.

no one is going to walk in here and hand you an alignment, and this shit is subtler than "yeah only mafia would ever put someone at L-1 early"

christ almighty why are you people trying to figure this shit out on black and white tells? those DON'T EXIST outside of newbie games.

Rest assured, I respect my fellow players enough to not expect any dead giveaway scumtells (though wishful thinking remains ).

If I bring up something I see as possibly scummy, it's because I want the person who did it to talk to us about it, and hopefully elaborate on

why

they did it.
The more people share about the thoughts behind their play, the better our understanding of their alignment.

Right now, I'm not sure I can buy the idea that you would be certain enough of your scum-read on Llama to L-1 him again the way you did.

[Untrod Tripod]

without cop results, anyone who is 100% sure of anything on day 1 is deluding themselves

[Onion Bubs]

but your motivational/behavior analysis wrt to me is based on a flawed and stubborn understanding of how people play and what motivates them

I don't really care if you learn that until after this game, but just keep it in your mind for later

I just expect townies to help the town and scum to hurt the town (maybe but not necessarily pretending to help the town in the process). I still don't properly understand what townie motivation your L-1 vote had, especially since there were other things you could do to get reactions out of people that didn't have as much chance of damaging the town. If it was specific reactions you were looking for, I don't have any idea what specific reactions you

could

be looking for that you couldn't have gotten by, say, coming up with your own hypothesis of who might be scum or asking a whole bunch of questions.

Right now though, there's something else that concerns me: too many folks have been awfully quiet.

• Futan's sole post so far has been an apology for his absence and a promise of something tomorrow, which I will hold him to.
  
• prawneater and Equinox's last posts in this thread have been essentially asking what certain people think about LlamaFluff's entry to the game, although they posted enough before that I can believe they'll come forward with some more thoughts on more recent developments pretty soon. Plus Equinox did get us out of RVS with his hypothesis.
  
• onion's only posts have been his RVS vote and a proposal to better differentiate between him and me. While it was a good proposal, it doesn't do much to help in our quest to find the scum.
  
• ChannelDelibird's only two posts are his RVS vote and a "if I were scum I would've done this" statement. I don't see why a townie would feel the need to say "if I were scum I would've done this".

I was gonna end this post with an animated gif of the "Do something!" moment from Spaceballs but the only one I found didn't even loop.