Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[Untrod Tripod]

quasi-confirmed townie

the only confirmation you ever get is when the mod says "this player is town/scum"

get the rest of it out of your head because it doesn't exist

[petroleumjelly]

Day One, Vote Count #22

LlamaFluff – 4 – TellTaleHeart, Untrod Tripod, onion, ChannelDelibird
prawneater – 2 – LlamaFluff, snscompt1
snscompt1 – 2 – prawneater, Derangement
NJAC – 1 – GuyInFreezer
onion – 1 – Equinox

With

11 alive

it takes

6

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is

March 6, 2015, at 6:45 AM PST

.

Countdown

: (expired on 2015-03-06 06:45:00)

Not Voting – 1 – NJAC

[TellTaleHeart]

ChannelDelibird's post 567 is the most convincing for me re: LlamaFluff, though, so my vote might go there.

I'm screaming like a maniac about the prawn wagon and CDB's off-the-cuff, vague comment is really what's doing it for you?!

>:(

[TellTaleHeart]

This game still feels like an out-of-body experience for me.

[onion]

TellTale, wait, you suspect CBD?

[TellTaleHeart]

No. o.O

[Equinox]

I'm screaming like a maniac about the prawn wagon and CDB's off-the-cuff, vague comment is really what's doing it for you?!

>:(

To be fair, I tend to put a lot of stock on personality-based meta reads because those are more robust than tell-based meta reads, and I was already looking for a comment similar to ChannelDelibird's on any of the veteran players. Even though I've said here that I read LlamaFluff as town, I have only once in 5 years read him as scum, and it was (embarrassingly) incorrect; in all of the games where he was scum, I was snowed. A lot of that is because I

want

LlamaFluff to be town, just like I want ChannelDelibird and Untrod Tripod to be town. My lizard brain can ignore cases, but it's been conditioned to jump when someone says LlamaFluff isn't being the usual LlamaFluff.

[onion]

TellTale, then you suspect Llama? 4+ of us suspect Llama. i'm not sure what you are angry emoting about.

[TellTaleHeart]

I'm in a weird mood right now.

[onion]

well... lets dig into Bub's old posts and see what there is to see. it'll be useful tomorrow at least. something to do while waiting for lurkers to lurk and llamas to balk and all that.

[onion]

Bubs Deepish Thoughts.

There's really not that much bubs to go on but lets see...

031 Bubs liked Equinox for his meta-suspicion of Llama but
212 Bubs disliked Derangement's meta-suspicion on Tripod.

085 Bubs didn't like Llama's haphazard random thought patterns but
278 Bubs thinks Llama's thought patterns are 'clear as crystal'.

Bubs voted Prawn in 027 and again in 269, explaining that prawn was his biggest scum-read in 325, yet he did his wonky goofy temp-vote-then-move-to-Marquis thing that was rather questionable. He L-1'd Marquis in 319.

BUT Bubs argued for town transparency and pro-town good things that i really like. He wanted people to explain their votes, to not hold back information, to not lurk. all these things are good, pro-town things. Plus he was useful and active until he wasn't all of a sudden and got replaced.

It seems like Bubs sort of liked Llama. He voted for Prawn in 027 for voting for Llama, he argued to decrease the votes on Llama in 046 and 062, and supports him in 278. However, he said he didn't understand Llama in 085. EVEN THE BUBS POST IS ALL ABOUT LLAMA!

Conclusion: Bub's pro-town tirades outweigh his self conflicting stances on meta-analysis and its possible he learned llamaspeek somewhere between 085 and 278. It would be mildly suspicious for this slot to have Llama flip scum, but even then the pro-town tirades would probably still outweigh them. Bubs is rather townish.

[onion]

[LlamaFluff]

Scum are just going to stall this one to deadline it seems.

Will just claim then. I am a one shot tracker. That is why I have been trying to keep Marquis slot alive so much. My entire plan from the start was to try and either keep a VT claim alive day one or have a strong VT read, track them, and if it was a went nowhere try and depending on gamestate just open it up with two confirmed town who had no utility PR wise leaving scum stuck if any other PRs existed. That's why I have been pretty insistent on town being weak, mod isn't going to have a lot of PRs and then three scum, why I reacted more to onions odd post which mentioned three scum than most (I have been expecting two scum since getting my role) and why I went out of my way to mention N0 directly to UT earlier when confidence was being discussed.

So lets lynch Prawn. Seriously.

*His call to lynch an onion player which turned into "well it was a reaction test"
*His want to lynch Marquis for lurking until Marquis called him town
*His change of reasoning to not want to lynch Marquis when I pointed out his meta read on lurking Marquis didn't match with his treatment of them (which he hasn't responded to - will love to hear this one)

Guy does scummy and inconsistent things, gets called on him, and then changes the reason and calls people who noticed it scum.

Prawn is scum. NJAC and onion are town. Other scum I would probably say one of: GIF/Derange (who has been bugging me on a gut level). Apart from UT/TTH I have varying level of town reads on rest of game.

Seriously. Prawn lynch, lets go. Doing this with 24 hours to spare on purpose here

[TellTaleHeart]

I don't buy it.

[LlamaFluff]

I don't buy it.

So if Prawn flips scum you instantly lynch TTH for future reference.

[TellTaleHeart]

That's fine because I don't think he would.

[Untrod Tripod]

LF/Prawn/TTH scumteam???????????????

[LlamaFluff]

That's fine because I don't think he would.

This is said with a very odd assurance that what I said is coming from town. If you thought I was scum it seems the logical response would have been "well you are scum so..." and not "well you are wrong so..."

Again. Prawn is probably scum here. If he is TTH should die next.

[TellTaleHeart]

Stretch

It's that I think you're scum and pushing a shit case.

There's your assurance.

[Untrod Tripod]

aye aye capn

[LlamaFluff]

aye aye capn

You just going to skirt everything really going on here? And you seriously think there are three scum?

Either way, if I get lynched today power lynch Prawn tomorrow. He is probably scum, worst case he is town who cant keep a story straight and will likely OMGUS vote town who looks at him funny in lylo. Either way, you want him nowhere near the late game.

Prawn/TTH

Thats your scum team.

[Untrod Tripod]

You just going to skirt everything really going on here? And you seriously think there are three scum?

everything? what everything? you claimed tracker with no results to go with. good for you. your proposed plan was real dumb, btw, if it was an actual plan coming from town. I have no earthly idea what you hoped to "confirm" from that.

and no. the question marks should have been a clue.

[onion]

587 Llama - Roleclaims One-shot Tracker.

The Tracker is an informative role that can target a player at Night and learn who, if anybody, that player targeted the same night (but not the action the player performed). If that player did not target anyone, the Tracker receives a result of "did not target anyone" or similar.
Trackers have been seen as each alignment.
This version of Tracker, and only this version of Tracker, is considered Normal on mafiascum.net.

from what i can understand of the Llamaspeek, his plan was to find someone who was very probably VT and track them N1, then roleclaim D2, revealing 2 town-aligned people without active PRs. Isn't that bad for town for the same reasons me and derangement were discussing? Revealing VTs to the scum lets them know who not to target. it seems like a bad plan to me.

and your case on prawn never had anything to do with you having a power role, so you claiming doesn't change the shittyness of it. we explored the case against Prawn already and it was not very strong.

[onion]

So either Llama is fakeclaiming or he isn't. let's check the possibilties. I'm going to assume that we autolynch him tomorrow should he survive the NK.

1) We accept Llama's fake-claim, lynch someone else, he survives the NK, tells us someone then flips scum.
This results in 1 chosen lynch, 1 NK, 1 scum. that'd be pretty good!

2) We accept Llama's true-claim, lynch someone else, he survives the NK, tells us someone then flips PR.
This results in 1 chosen lynch, 1 NK, 1 dead PR and 1 Tracker read, which is of questionable value. Tracker results are mighty fickle.

3) We accept Llama's claim, lynch someone else, then he gets NK'd.
This results in 1 chosen lynch, 1 forced NK, and no info. forcing NK's is always good.

4) We don't accept Llama's claim and lynch him.
This results in 1 chosen lynch, 1 NK, and no info.

Actually, that seems pretty in favor of letting him live. i must be doing something wrong. help!

[LlamaFluff]

from what i can understand of the Llamaspeek, his plan was to find someone who was very probably VT and track them N1, then roleclaim D2, revealing 2 town-aligned people without active PRs. Isn't that bad for town for the same reasons me and derangement were discussing? Revealing VTs to the scum lets them know who not to target. it seems like a bad plan to me.

Yeah this game is going to be weak in PRs. Looking at my role I expected at most two others, and if scum has no roles, I am it. If it looked right to claim D2 (dead scum, lots of prob town players, result on a player getting votes) I absolutely would have claimed right there.

The argument for tracking VT that has claimed, especially if I am reading number of scum right, is that if scum (before all this happened) they would be most likely to submit a kill as the player who is already claimed is usually the "expendable" one, and just statistically in a two scum setup the chance of getting a "false positive" meaning hitting scum who didn't act is low enough to justify a significant town tell. That and if they are scum with a role, they would be dead in the water. The fact that UT doesn't understand the strength of a "no action" on a VT claim from a tracker is REALLY concerning to me. Tracking a player who goes nowhere is a little below the lines of a cop clear, especially if there are two scum because there would be literally only one role that generates a false positive in that case.

Basically assuming a target lives through the night and went nowhere is about 12% more likely to be town than an average player. As tracker you want to be shooting for a player who should give you a "went nowhere" result, what better role to do that then claimed VT?

In the all, it basically produces two players scum would need to nightkill to get rid of. Which is going to limit their ability to get rid of whoever they want to each night as priorities emerge

@onion - You really think Prawn as town makes the onion comment, only says its a reaction test after Equinox and I said he was scum for it. Then calls Marquis null for lurking and says he would hammer. Then calls Marquis town after Marquis called Prawn slight town. Then decided that what he thought Marquis was town for was something that happened multiple pages AFTER Prawn called him town? He literally changed his reasoning as to why a player was town from a shifty reason to something that doesn't line up with the timeline of the game.