If you agree with the statement, "In general, (in/hyper)activity at a certain point in a certain day (ex. inactivity 20% into D2) is scummy", then the same goes. I can show that the claim is
That doesn't mean that relative inactivity is never a scumtell. It means that you can't arbitrarily call a given moment of relative (in)activity scummy. Moreover, even if you're not being totally arbitrary and you call a given moment of relative (in)activity scummy only because that relative (in)activity occurred near, say, the end of D1, you're still probably doing something terrible.
There may be events more precise than "D3 is half-way done" that reliably time with differential activity. For example, maybe scum are more active or inactive when a wagon on someone in their faction is of a certain size. And that's what I want to ask you guys about - if there are other events you think might differentially affect some faction's activity for a time.