Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[Equinox]

As it turns out, there was a question asked about town 1-shot trackers in Mafia Discussion here a few years ago... It looks like LlamaFluff responded "don't use the shot on Night 1" to the hypotheticals where 1) VT was lynched on Day 1, 2) PR was lynched on Day 1, and 3) PR (vigilante) claimed but VT was lynched. The flip side of this is that he would only hold back if he knew he was going to survive to do so, so it makes sense here that he would use his shot on Night 1. The other thing is that his reasoning in that thread is pretty similar to what he was saying here about wanting to "clear" NJAC's slot for what a "No Target" result is worth.

I think I'm just really, really scared of mislynching LlamaFluff, and that fear is now doubled because he's a claimed tracker. My instinct here is to let him go, but I also hesitate to lynch NJAC because I agree that Marquis's behavior is less indicative of scum. I'll read the thread over again later today; there's something specific I need to look for that should tell me if LlamaFluff is the way to go because ChannelDelibird's post 602 is unsettling.

[Derangement]

Ooh, thanks for the theory thread link, Equinox!
That reminds me of something important that can influence how much tracking someone who went nowhere is worth.

@mod: If scum have a power role with a night action, is that player allowed to personally do the night action

and

the factional kill in the same night?

[onion]

(less than 24, more like um... 16ish)

yawn ok back to it.

@derangement, were you prefering a not-llama lynch because you were sensing his claims? or for some other reason?

@CBD, now that i slept on it, Llama's plan isn't entirely terrible. Trackers have a hard time finding scum, because there's usually only 1 active at night. also being one-shot, pulling off a scum find would be rather difficult. But if someone VT claimed and was apparently believed, it seems that they'd feel safe enough to be the active one if they were scum. tracking that person would either catch the surprise scum, or strengthen the VT claim, both of which are good. it seems like a better waste of the power than to target someone you suspect and hope for the best.

i dislike prawn 615. we're trying to consensus here, and you are making it harder.

i'll support a policy lynch against NJAC. i don't like a sns lynch because bubs was townish.

[ChannelDelibird]

@CBD, now that i slept on it, Llama's plan isn't entirely terrible. Trackers have a hard time finding scum, because there's usually only 1 active at night.

Depends on the setup. Given night start, it's likelier that we only have two scum, in which case the chances of both having something to do at night could be higher than if there were three.

also being one-shot, pulling off a scum find would be rather difficult. But if someone VT claimed and was apparently believed, it seems that they'd feel safe enough to be the active one if they were scum.

Not if Llama drops a bunch of hints/gets himself run up for being weird so as he has to claim tracker, thus tipping himself off to the scum. At any rate, Llama's framing this as trying to strengthen a town claim rather than catch out scum claiming VT.

it seems like a better waste of the power than to target someone you suspect and hope for the best.

Given how seeing a player definitively target a dead person at night

is

strong proof of their scumminess but how seeing a player not target anyone for one night

isn't

strong proof of their towniness - not to mention that Llama should be good enough at this game to narrow down the suspect pool somewhat - I reject this notion. Finding scum by targeting someone you suspect is also less likely to risk being caught in a situation where people suspect you and your 'cleared' player of colluding with each other and being left alive as mislynch bait, which could absolutely happen to a tracker who doesn't have any shots left and is suspected as Llama has been virtually all day.

I'm also kind of uncomfortable with the idea of Llama wanting to get a VT claim out there that he trusts enough to seek to verify (he does say 'or strong VT read' but looking for that is also problematic IMO) ... isn't that rather encouraging a bad wagon or two? To push people he might not think are scum? This is the part of it that I feel is most attributable to just Llama thinking differently to me but, man, I don't love it.

[GuyInFreezer]

It's taking longer than expected. My apologies. While I finish reading I'll give you some quick first impressions.

After reaching page 6: Bubs, Derange, maybe Equinox and maybe UT look town. Llama could be scum mainly because of PoE, according to the list of potential willing-to-take-CES-out-of-the-picture players. I don't like the wagon that formed on onion. From that wagon I'd say the scummiest player is TTH.

More later...

Why arent we lynching this?

/hi

[ChannelDelibird]

Equinox's paranoia seems town; I can identify with plenty of it. I might just be that I'm a bit more stubborn about staying on here. Overall, though, I just have a hard time putting this together as a coherent example of a town player at work.

I wouldn't cry if we got an NJAC lynch but it seems based on a lot less.

[GuyInFreezer]

Gunsmith and tracker seems redundant.

I didn't like LF before the claim, and I still don't like him post-claim.

VOTE: Llamafluff

I don't get the NJAC votes. snscompt1 should be the alt-lynch. He's active on other parts of the site. Makes me think he's purposefully avoiding posting here.

uh no?

Gunsmith and tracker are two different roles with two different purposes.
Gunsmith and follower maybe, but not gunsmith and tracker.

If sns replaced onion bubs and hes most likely town.

[GuyInFreezer]

Also we have no reason to lynch claimed 1S tracker today.
By keeping him alive, if hes town he'll either get nightkilled or scum waste a valuable night action try to frame the one of the weakest investigative role. If hes scum he still wont be able to lie about it (attempting to refute this ill consider as a scumclaim. I have stuff in mind that I dont want to reveal until tomorrow and id rather not be poked and prodded about this until tomorrow.)

[GuyInFreezer]

And of course its obv that he uses his stuff tonight and report tomorrow.

[Untrod Tripod]

I mean

we could to njac I guess

I just would strongly prefer llama

[Derangement]

@derangement, were you prefering a not-llama lynch because you were sensing his claims? or for some other reason?

My initially strong recommendation to not lynch llama, despite his play day one, was because I was seeing what I thought was a Cop (or weak-role equivalent) softclaim.
That would have made it so Llama would either be NK'd, saving us a mislynch, or we could get confirmation of Marquis' alignment later, should llama ever flip town.

Once he explicitly claimed tracker, my recommendation lost some of its weight, but not all of it:

1. If llama says he tracked the scum that did the NK, then either llama or the tracked person is scum. That's fantastic!
   
2. If llama says he tracked a player who targeted someone that's
   not
   the NK, then the tracked person can confirm llama as a tracker, at the cost of confirming themself as a PR.
   If the trend of everyone being one-shot continues, then this is not an issue, since they'll have no shots left anyway.
   
3. If llama says his target went nowhere, we have no way of knowing if it's because they're a VT who took no night action, scum who took no night action, or if it's because llama is scum.
   This outcome is only helpful if it causes scum not use their PRs (if any exist, and their player can't NK on the same night) to try and achieve it, or if we lynch scum today, so it's best not to pre-announce who Llama plans to track.

My preference for not lynching Llama today is because if we lynch scum, option C now makes Llama almost as good as a cop, and even if we don't, there's still a chance Llama might be smart or lucky enough to to pull off an A or B for us.

[onion]

ok that make sense.

VOTE: Unvote: Llamafluff
Vote: NJAC because policy lynch.

[petroleumjelly]

Day One, Vote Count #24

NJAC – 4– GuyInFreezer,TellTaleHeart, Derangement, onion
LlamaFluff – 3 – Untrod Tripod, ChannelDelibird, prawneater
prawneater – 2 – LlamaFluff, snscompt1
onion – 1 – Equinox

With

11 alive

it takes

6

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is

March 6, 2015, at 6:45 AM PST

.

Countdown

: (expired on 2015-03-06 06:45:00)

Not Voting – 1 – NJAC

@mod: If scum have a power role with a night action, is that player allowed to personally do the night action and the factional kill in the same night?

As a

general

rule, a Mafiate with a power role may both send in a kill and a separate night action. Moderators may, however, place restrictions to prevent this.

[Derangement]

Also, to elaborate on the two people I'm currently okay with Lynching, SNS is my top pick (null/scumread), and NJAC is a backup one (lurker/liar policy lynch).

While some people say Bubs looked town, there's a few things of his that sounded off to me, later in the day.
Unfortunately, he replaced before he could answer my #410.
His replacement went and OMGUS-voted prawn, and is yet to return to this game after his initial blitz catch-up to explain why he did it, or follow through on his promised "next post".

With only (expired on 2015-03-06 06:45:00) to go, swapping votes away from NJAC risks a no-lynch, so unless three other players explicitly state their preference for an SNS wagon over NJAC's, and declare intent to vote him soon (I plan to be awake for another two and a half hours after this post, but probably not much longer), I'll settle for the policy lynch today.

[snscompt1]

Hey. Going to do a catchup in my next post, however, in response to prawns questions:

Prawn, you lean scum.
CDB, you're town.

I think the Marquis slot or onion is the way to go.

Now, you asked me about the dahli llama.

What posts did I like?
72 was my first read of llama as town. Thoughts were clearly from a town pov. Same thing with 77.
His argument on UT in post 100 was misguided. It was a nice effort and made sense, but I had tripod at a town read as well at that point.
There aren't many more I agreed with.

[snscompt1]

From what you've told us about your experiences with Marquis, shouldn't your activity-based reads on him be null? Do you have any other scum-Marquis reads?

Will you make your next post before the lynch deadline? Don't Marquis on us now.

No.
No.
I didn't. Cut it close though. My bad.

that's a pretty crazy interaction right there. very anti-town out of sns, but Bubs was so townish! and they have to be the same alignment! blarg.

He annoyed me.

@sns if you're not reading me as scum, can you remove your vote please?

Paranoid much? I probably shouldve move my vote but I wasn't expecting to be gone for 2 days.

Also, are you softclaiming executioner?

Well if he's softclaiming it, he isn't outright claiming it. Ergo, stop role fishing.

Still waiting on SNS' "next" post.

Dude. Chill. Marquis went through eras of history between posts. It's been 2 days and I got busy.

SNS:
Didn't like his OMGUS;
Still waiting on why he's voting Prawn.

That's enough reason? I don't understand why keep picking at me.

I don't get the NJAC votes. snscompt1 should be the alt-lynch. He's active on other parts of the site. Makes me think he's purposefully avoiding posting here.

False. I want to say more but those games are still going on.


Caught up.
Okay. Said llama was town. #inb4roleclaim

Still down for a NJAC lynch. Especially given that Prawn isn't voting him and is pushing for llama's head.

UNVOTE
VOTE NJAC

L-1.

[Untrod Tripod]

===================[]

unvote vote NJAC

[Untrod Tripod]

let's be done with this godawful day

[GuyInFreezer]

I agree

[LlamaFluff]

I disagree with the method, but I can see how he would think it would be a good idea. I'm just mulling over how likely it is that he would use his shot on Night 2 (technically 1, but you get the idea) because I remember him being extremely conservative with vigilante shots, but I don't know if that also holds true, even if it's a lesser extent, for investigative shots.

Tracker is a role that gets greatly magnified in power if you get a better grip on the game. Hitting a VT (or claimed) is what you are going for, especially if you are one shot because if you hit town PR night one, you basically have wasted your role.

Also for vigs its not conservative, its that vigs shouldn't shoot. Town have a lower win percent when vigs are present - meaning they have at best far lower utility role than people think they are. Also at least last I ran the numbers they are inaccurate to a level where if you just shot and random you would have a better chance of hitting scum than using the role normal.

This post came out of nowhere and didn't make sense at the time, but now we can see it's a setup for the roleclaim. Scummy premeditation imo.

Would you rather me go back and point out where I assumed two scum (because of my role in part) directly mentioned investigation roles when discussing theory, or the part where I snap hard at keeping a VT claim alive because that is clearly the best player to track?

Plus I like how you are digging in saying that the buddying by Marquis isn't what made you change your opinion. Its very explicitly is what made it change, even if you want to claim something else added to it you very clearly use that post as the point that your read on them changed. If you are town you really need to stop lying about things.

[Untrod Tripod]

WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT

YOUR GOAL SHOULD BE TO TRACK SCUM TO A DEAD PLAYER

NOT TRACKING A PLAYER TO NOWHERE

[Untrod Tripod]

okay clearly this is a theory point that I'm just missing completely

explain to me why confirming that someone went nowhere is better than confirming that someone went somewhere

[snscompt1]

Confirming someone went somewhere is just proof of scum or PR. You cant prove they arent a PR. So you cant say anything. Especially of youre a 1-shot. Going nowhere though is something you can claim. If the person is a claimed VT and goes somewhere, badda bing badda boom, you got scum.

[Untrod Tripod]

or a doctor

[Untrod Tripod]

but point taken

that just seems like a reeeeeeeeeeeeeeal cute maneuver to me