(Hilariously) Unbalanced Mafia 2 [Over]

[Titus]

Pretty much the exact opposite reason that I'm scumreading Titus right now; they're both against the idea of lynching me today and trying to shut down the biggest supporter of that plan. In no universe does scum do that in this situation.

Wrong. Dictator wants to be townread by you. If they feel confident of that, then there is zero need to lynch you.

No lynch today.

You shoot wrong target.
Dictator shoots other wrong target.
1 v 1 v 1 lylo is the argument. Town as kingmaker.


Or
Lynch town. You shoot other wrong townie. He takes your vest.

Same scenario.

The best scenario for town winning is to lynch you.

Also, you forget PI is the one who highlighted why you needed to be lynched. I see that and realize he was indeed right.

[Titus]

Spoiler: ika's reasoning

muffin you buys or got time to talk? i plan on going full stream of thoughts/ideas and need someone outside to bounce with me

Go for it. I will try to respond in timely fashion.

OK,

first off VOTE: ank

this is where i stand right now:
you are town by play
we are town

2 scums lie within [ns/ank/titus]
we know this due to the fact of 3 nks (fins is accounted for and dead)

ank is claimed to have a kill and FMPOV right now, the optimal play is to lynch him.
this should make sense in not only an optimal play for us as town but a suboptimal play for us as scum.

while anks shots have been very good and everything we know that there is at most one anti-town player and that right now the gamestate looks like this:

NS is VT
Ank is BP-Miller vig
We are BP
you are miller
titus is cop (insane)

however we know someone is lying due to there being 2 kills.

NS has been trible cleared by cops and tracker
ank is accounted for
we have been cleared by cop+tracker

that would technically leave you/titus

however im cutting all that cop clear crap and all the innos and stuff and everything and working that, titus is too stupid to be scum and ank pushing our lynch is scummy as fuck

i want to point out yesterday he was saying our slot was town and that now for it to lead to town win we need to be lynched by some bsitty plan. I just want to cut all these "plan craps" and just lynch from objecitve and how it should be.

---

if we lynch ank:

we go into night with 4p and 1 kill possible
that means
one of {you/ns/us/titus dies}

now im going to run each scnario and who should kill an objective POV (yes i know its all one wifom game in the end but just bear with it)

you are scum:
I would say your best option is to kill NS or no kill. you already have enough built up to persaudo get titus/me on each other. or you could wait it out and no kill

NS is scum:
he would most likely kill you and then try to get titus/me to agro it out.

titus is scum:
titus best play really is to kill one of you/ns and push that the other is scum. however she would know that i will practicy not listen to her about anything right now so she would most likely try to kill us

we are scum:
really this is where the biggest wifom comes in, but if i was scum i would most likely (since i dont play the objecitve game) kill out titus and then push that ns is last scum

if i wanted to take objective its ideal to kill you and hard push ns

His rationale is the same as mine. We enter a 3p lylo with your lynch. I am perfectly fine with that as it ensures that scum need to give us info. One of the four will be cleared.

[Pirate Ika]

Pretty much the exact opposite reason that I'm scumreading Titus right now; they're both against the idea of lynching me today and trying to shut down the biggest supporter of that plan. In no universe does scum do that in this situation.

Wrong. Dictator wants to be townread by you. If they feel confident of that, then there is zero need to lynch you.

No lynch today.

You shoot wrong target.
Dictator shoots other wrong target.
1 v 1 v 1 lylo is the argument. Town as kingmaker.


Or
Lynch town. You shoot other wrong townie. He takes your vest.

Same scenario.

The best scenario for town winning is to lynch you.

Also, you forget PI is the one who highlighted why you needed to be lynched. I see that and realize he was indeed right.

yeah no. this is the same logic you tried to use to lynch any other player than confscum bear.

I think my logic makes much more sense and are trying to sow sk!ank fear when if ank is sk he is fucked. i think there is a distinct possibility that ank is a vig here if not he won't survive lylo cos his nks are clearly tracked. what is in town's best interest is to try to work out who the last grpscum is and you are not even trying to do that this is your previous day round play of "there are a herd of commies running around!" all over again and no, that was never the case.

don't try to suck up to ika cos it isn't gonna work.

occam's razor and poe point to you.

VOTE: titus

the only way that ns can be scum is if he was godfather or he was allowed to self-tailor. I think the pulverize nk was hippie scum.

[Titus]

@Mollie,

Stop with the fearmongering yourself.
You keep going back to the fact I think there were commies as a reason for Ank not being an SK. Ank must be read on his own behavior and he is not conftown.
Because Ank is not conftown, we must lynch Ank. Period. If we mislynch looking for dictator today, Dictator has a good chance at winning.
Hippie is already proven imbalanced.
I also am not Hippie scum due to Grandma's pushes on me.
I can only be scum if Blizzard played extremely anti-wincon.

You are either confbias or scum yourself trying to win.

Either way, the objective thing is to lynch Ank. Have each player lay out Dictator or Hippie cases behind spoiler walls. One for is their primary suspect is scum, and one if their primary target flips in the night.Ank also articulates his suspects.

We proceed to lylo.

There's no silencing. No obvious scum win.

Your plan has that.

[pirate mollie]

titus plz explain in what world it makes sense that we are scum. cos I really wanna hear it!

we are cleared by your investigative, tracked by the flipped town tracker in which we went nowhere, townread by tammy which shld be HUGE, tried to lynch the outed scum role blocker in which you tried to save, targeted by scum on nights when there were missing nks with both protective roles dead i mean the list goes on and on. not to mention in no world wld I nk the 1 player that wld be the least likely to vote us which is fin. we are in no way no how scum in this game.

again, the only reason you are being allowed to get away with this is is cos pple think you really are this dumb and that you really are this bad as town. me personally, I wld feel insulted.

you are not even trying to work out who the last scum is you are going for the easy lynch in ank who's play this game very much points to the distinct possibility of being a vig. even if he is sk he has backed himself into a corner in which guarantees his loss. <---- you keep ignoring this and still keep trying to push for his lynch.

you have lost all credibility in this game when you tried to save bear and did nothing but fearmonger about commies.

you are scum period, end of story.

[Nobody Special]

You shoot other wrong townie. He takes your vest.

Wait, what?

[Pirate Ika]

titus plz explain in what world it makes sense that we are scum. cos I really wanna hear it!

we are cleared by your investigative, tracked by the flipped town tracker in which we went nowhere, townread by tammy which shld be HUGE, tried to lynch the outed scum role blocker in which you tried to save, targeted by scum on nights when there were missing nks with both protective roles dead i mean the list goes on and on. not to mention in no world wld I nk the 1 player that wld be the least likely to vote us which is fin. we are in no way no how scum in this game.

again, the only reason you are being allowed to get away with this is is cos pple think you really are this dumb and that you really are this bad as town. me personally, I wld feel insulted.

you are not even trying to work out who the last scum is you are going for the easy lynch in ank who's play this game very much points to the distinct possibility of being a vig. even if he is sk he has backed himself into a corner in which guarantees his loss. <---- you keep ignoring this and still keep trying to push for his lynch.

you have lost all credibility in this game when you tried to save bear and did nothing but fearmonger about commies.

you are scum period, end of story.

sorry

[Nobody Special]

Is this Pirate Ika's first game?

[Pirate Ika]

Is this Pirate Ika's first game?

yeah this is our first game in this hydra.

ns plz don't let us lose cos you don't like how I don't spell my words out. that wld be a big giant fuck you to all of the players who put in a lot of effort. if it bugs you that much just don't sign for games that I am.

[Ankamius]

Pretty much the exact opposite reason that I'm scumreading Titus right now; they're both against the idea of lynching me today and trying to shut down the biggest supporter of that plan. In no universe does scum do that in this situation.

Wrong. Dictator wants to be townread by you. If they feel confident of that, then there is zero need to lynch you.

Irrelevant. Completely and utterly irrelevant.

I already went into why lynching a player that isn't me nets scum a guaranteed loss. I went into why no lynching nets scum a guaranteed loss. The fact that you're trying to justify lynching me today by saying that dictator has a good chance of winning otherwise is pretty transparently scum. That's objectively false and there's no way you can argue that.

[Ankamius]

Pirate Ika your logic isn't entirely sound. I'm not necessarily fucked as SK since if we hit a LyLo situation where there's a scum, a town, and me, the town has to side with me to have any chance of winning. Siding against me in that situation only guarantees town a loss.

[Nobody Special]

Is this Pirate Ika's first game?

yeah this is our first game in this hydra.

ns plz don't let us lose cos you don't like how I don't spell my words out. that wld be a big giant fuck you to all of the players who put in a lot of effort. if it bugs you that much just don't sign for games that I am.

Please understand, I am able to separate personal annoyances from game-state stuff.

And I am solidly reading your slot as town, based on ::reasons::. I am pretty sure that Titus is scum now, because Muffin ain't.

I'm at that point of teetering on the cliff, afraid to move because OHGODICOULDBEWRONG.

My next task is to focus on who to lynch. The whole "Ank must die for town to win" and "solid desire to lynch Titus" are warring within me at the moment.

If one of PI could concisely summarize those two positions and which is better for town, that's be great. (You, too, Ank. Muffin, if you want, but don't worry about it. Titus, hush.)

[Titus]

You shoot other wrong townie. He takes your vest.

Wait, what?

Do you want me to explain this or not?

I have pretty surely argued positions that would lead to my death and loss if scum.

The only answer that makes logical sense is we lynch SK Ank today.

I try to save our game tomorrow.

[Nobody Special]

Please explain the taking vest comment.

[Titus]

Please explain the taking vest comment.

It meant Dictator shoots Ank thus taking his vest instead of taking his life.

[Nobody Special]

Okay, my confusion was with the ambiguous 'he.'

Now. Why should we not lynch you?

[Titus]

Point blank NS I don't care if you are convinced I am scum today.

I care about winning for us. Arguing which of us is scum is a proDictator tactic and proSK tactic. They can only win if we lynch someone who is not them.

Dictator is focused on appearing town to Ank and stopping Ank from being lynched.

PI arguing both ways makes them hard to read.


I know there's a framer/tailor or bus driver so my results are shit.

Play based off behavior and odds.

I have faith in us in lylo due to our success so far. Do you?

If both SK and Dictator are alive, we must lynch them back to back.
If only Dictator lives, we have one mislynch if and only if no shot is taken.

You are smart. Do the math.

[Nobody Special]

Bear with me here for a moment.

Assumptions:

Ank - SK
Titus - Dictator
PI, Muffin, NS - town

Lynch Ank. Titus kills {Muffin|NS}. Alive = Titus, PI, {Muffin|NS}
PI votes Titus, Titus votes PI, Town votes...... Argh.

(Muffin who would you vote for given {Muffin-Titus-PI} LyLo?)

*****

Same assumptions.

Lynch Titus. Ank kills {?}. Alive = Ank plus two of {NS|Muffin|PI}

Ank's vote is immaterial, the other two (I am relatively sure) would vote Ank, thus winning for Town.


*******

I can't take the chance that Titus will leave me alive, so I have to vote Titus.



Can anyone not!Titus tell me if the above is even-slightly-reality-based?

[Pirate Ika]

Pirate Ika your logic isn't entirely sound. I'm not necessarily fucked as SK since if we hit a LyLo situation where there's a scum, a town, and me, the town has to side with me to have any chance of winning. Siding against me in that situation only guarantees town a loss.

are you claiming sk, ank?

cos from my perspective that is why we cannot afford a mislynch today which is why i am trying to keep it from happening. the only way that ns (or us for that matter) can be scum is if he was a tailor and self-targeted the entire game. ns wld have had to go into the game knowing that he cld self target and I spent the better part of the night searching for every piece of info on the tailor that I cld find in games, discussions I mean I was pretty thorough so that I cld quiet ika's paranoia about ns once and for all and whether or not a tailor can self-target has never occurred since most night actions are not self-targetable. there are other roles to play that out.

so ns is town.

I have already said why muffin is town.

the same logic that applies to ns as well, plus we were tracked and went nowhere and there are missing nks on the nights when we were hit. so we are town.

so we have 3 town who have to vote correctly and lynch scum!titus who is like confscum at this point or lynch you if you are the sk. which up until this very point I was thinking that you weren't but wow your angle is weird.

there is no way in hell we are voting muffin or ns. so if you are sk your only option is to band together with scum!titus and convince either muffin or ns to vote town which wld look quite awkward at this point since she is pushing for your lynch cos she is saying that you are the sk. any backpedaling you do know and will reveal anti-town motives.

I will shoot down every piece of wifom that is thrown our way by using evidence based on cold hard facts. no way am I letting this game go to a kingmaking scenario if I can help it if it goes there it will not be because of me.

muffin and ns are not derps. I believe that they work this out.

what I am saying is that if you really are the sk I think you are fucked and probs your best bet is to just say fuck it and work for town.

[Titus]

That presumes I am scum though. I am not.

If I am town, lynching me means you lose.

You would vote me in the scenario after Ank. So there's hesitation on your part on me being scum, otherwise you would not have the scenario with lynching Ank with a ??? PI and you would quickhammer me.

You know the scenario with a redirector must be true. Fin3 doesn't shoot Elk. I am the one with the proven ability. Therefore I cannot be scum. Ank cannot be redirector either.

[Pirate Ika]

Bear with me here for a moment.

Assumptions:

Ank - SK
Titus - Dictator
PI, Muffin, NS - town

Lynch Ank. Titus kills {Muffin|NS}. Alive = Titus, PI, {Muffin|NS}
PI votes Titus, Titus votes PI, Town votes...... Argh.

(Muffin who would you vote for given {Muffin-Titus-PI} LyLo?)

*****

Same assumptions.

Lynch Titus. Ank kills {?}. Alive = Ank plus two of {NS|Muffin|PI}

Ank's vote is immaterial, the other two (I am relatively sure) would vote Ank, thus winning for Town.


*******

I can't take the chance that Titus will leave me alive, so I have to vote Titus.



Can anyone not!Titus tell me if the above is even-slightly-reality-based?

fwiw I think so. cos that is where I am at.

[Titus]

Pirate Ika your logic isn't entirely sound. I'm not necessarily fucked as SK since if we hit a LyLo situation where there's a scum, a town, and me, the town has to side with me to have any chance of winning. Siding against me in that situation only guarantees town a loss.

are you claiming sk, ank?

cos from my perspective that is why we cannot afford a mislynch today which is why i am trying to keep it from happening. the only way that ns (or us for that matter) can be scum is if he was a tailor and self-targeted the entire game. ns wld have had to go into the game knowing that he cld self target and I spent the better part of the night searching for every piece of info on the tailor that I cld find in games, discussions I mean I was pretty thorough so that I cld quiet ika's paranoia about ns once and for all and whether or not a tailor can self-target has never occurred since most night actions are not self-targetable. there are other roles to play that out.

so ns is town.

I have already said why muffin is town.

the same logic that applies to ns as well, plus we were tracked and went nowhere and there are missing nks on the nights when we were hit. so we are town.

so we have 3 town who have to vote correctly and lynch scum!titus who is like confscum at this point or lynch you if you are the sk. which up until this very point I was thinking that you weren't but wow your angle is weird.

there is no way in hell we are voting muffin or ns. so if you are sk your only option is to band together with scum!titus and convince either muffin or ns to vote town which wld look quite awkward at this point since she is pushing for your lynch cos she is saying that you are the sk. any backpedaling you do know and will reveal anti-town motives.

I will shoot down every piece of wifom that is thrown our way by using evidence based on cold hard facts. no way am I letting this game go to a kingmaking scenario if I can help it if it goes there it will not be because of me.

muffin and ns are not derps. I believe that they work this out.

what I am saying is that if you really are the sk I think you are fucked and probs your best bet is to just say fuck it and work for town.

If you feel he is the SK, lynching him is the best play. Otherwise we fall into tradegy of the commons/prisoner's dillema.

[Titus]

Mollie has doubtcasted/tunnelled me with 4th Hippie wifom which is unbalanced as fuck. Ika reset. Ika knows not try cry wolf.

[Nobody Special]

Okay, here we go.

VOTE: Titus

I'll probably do an unofficial VC later today. If anyone else has time, feel free.

[Pirate Ika]

That presumes I am scum though. I am not.

If I am town, lynching me means you lose.

You would vote me in the scenario after Ank. So there's hesitation on your part on me being scum, otherwise you would not have the scenario with lynching Ank with a ??? PI and you would quickhammer me.

You know the scenario with a redirector must be true. Fin3 doesn't shoot Elk. I am the one with the proven ability. Therefore I cannot be scum. Ank cannot be redirector either.

there is no evidence of a redirector. this is your wifom spreading which is what you tried to do in order to save bear.

fin was having doubts about scum!you towards the end of the day round. it makes sense for her to target elk boy.