Touhou UPick 3 - [Game Over]

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose the cupcake-sakura thing must just be the SK thing?

[Shadoweh]

If one extra person dies tonight it will be 5 to lynch tomorrow. It will be kind of hard to use it for double-lynch purposes if that happens. How many exttra deaths is enough, you ask? Well we've had four so far and we're assuming the three users are town-sourced right now, so etc?

I mean, I guess I can just have fun lynching all by myself tomorrow (that does sound kind of fun admittedly)

[Shadoweh]

use the dual 3 plx. id prefer that to relying on kilgy's two single votes since so many things could go wrong with that (as kagami has pointed out)

Well, in that case everyone else needs to pile up and I'll go be indecisive over here. I'll play to lynch whoever has a big phat wagon, Dan and whoevver else should be put up to 5 votes.
15 hours from now = 2pm tomorrow EDT? I leave about 11 hours from now, so there needs to be wagons by 11am. See, me playing my card now also means i get to sleep in and not refresh the mafia page, why won't you let me slumber? :<

[zMuffinMan]

well, if you have to go somewhere, maybe you can leave your cards in AD's care. i'm sure he'd be willing to use them for you

[ActionDan]

Just let me know when

[zMuffinMan]

i dunno

i'm going wrong somewhere in my analysis and i'm not sure where

help, ad

[Ankamius]

Lay out your entire analysis in one post so I can get a bead on where you're coming from.

[zMuffinMan]

that would take a while to do if i wanted to bring up relevant quotes

in a nutshell, though:

gif+thd not-really masons
SB inno

below that (in no particular order)

kagami for D1 interactions with AD+sakura - meh on play overall but hasn't looked overtly scummy
pieguy for D1 interactions with AD+sakura - minor play reasons too
sky for all-game interactions with AD+sakura - minor play reasons too

below that (in no particular order)

i have minor feelings that sakura voting you at the start of d1 was because she was scared of whatever you were alluding to with your claim (e.g. it points to you being town). i think you piling onto sky with AD+sakura is actually more a point in favour of you being town than scum. play-wise, i'm kinda meh, but i've liked some of the things you've written

shadoweh's general content has looked town to me for the most part. i'm not sure her role makes sense as a scum role, especially in tandem with sakura. there are *very minor* interactions which look townish

rylai i just went over, but there are small things about rylai's play that look town and very minor interaction things that make me think town

kilgy i dunno. content *looks* town. interactions with AD were pretty bad, interactions with sakura were town~ish looking. same role reasoning as shadoweh.

ooba-slot was pushed by sakura a bit during D1 (i'm not 100% sure on how to interpret this and nobody else seems to want to) and AD didn't really interact with it much. that's as much as i can say regarding interactions. re: play, i'd say scum mostly because i feel the reads lack depth and look a bit forced

and that leaves cupcake. relentless looked town~ish to me for play and minor interactions. that's it. cupcake's pushes have been really bad, his play has been really lacking, there's no real noteworthy interactions with anyone, let alone AD or sakura (outside of the SK thing, which i'm not sure how to interpret). it's nice that he put effort into writing a wall recently, but the analysis in that wall is really weak and misses a lot of information about the game


i mean...

i'd like it if ooba and cupcake were scum and the game was that easy, but i think i'm giving too much credit to someone (or someones) and i don't know where

[Ankamius]

I am pretty sure Kilgamayan is town now, almost purely from his actions.

I think town would be more likely than scum to check the Lily pair Night 1, although granted it's entirely possible that it was a lie. I am inclined to believe that it is genuine simply because of him checking me on N2. It's technically possible for someone to figure out what I'm referring to with my posts about the other part of my role, but he stated something that basically confirms that he knows exactly what it is (or at least the general gist of it).

That's not indicative of town by itself, but I don't really see scum using that information to try to shut down Sky_Paladin's attempts to focus on that specific point. I'm "more in the PoE pool" than Sky_Paladin is (if that makes sense) and it's a really dubious scum play to go that angle.

[Ankamius]

And TBH when I look at neighborhood posts, I don't really think they're scumposts.

The entire neighborhood PT makes a lot more sense with all-town than with a scum.

[Ankamius]

I'd like you to go into more detail on why you think Rylai is town. That slot stands out since I'm not really that impressed with him and your reasoning doesn't look very solid.

I'd have to say that I'd be wrong on Shadoweh or Kagami if a townread of mine is actually scum, mostly since both of them gave me pretty big townreads early on and gave me far more sporadic town feels than I think would be justified for that strong of a read, but I'm not all that worried about it unless it gets to the point where it's virtually confirmed that a townread is scum.

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ooba

[Ankamius]

Also I decided for shiggles that I should look at interactions for a Sakura+Dan+Rylai team beyond that one post I saw and what I found doesn't really impress. It's not difficult at all to see that team.

[zMuffinMan]

i think i made it clear there weren't any strong reasons to call rylai town

i also don't think there are strong reasons to call rylai scum anymore than, say, there were 'strong' reasons to call mala scum

what i can do is look at what's been provided and tell you what i think of it. and i have

if you disagree, it'd be more helpful for you to talk about which point/s you disagree with than have me go over it again

or talk about why rylai's play is so very scummy

i mean rylai could be scum, but (like with mala) the best case i can come up with is, essentially, "hasn't done much"

[zMuffinMan]

it's not about whether it's difficult to see rylai as scum, but whether it's more likely that rylai is scum or town

i mean you can say there are limited interactions, but rylai wasn't around for over half the day phase (like i think rylai went almost a full 4.5 days without posting?) so rylai's interactions with *everyone* are limited

looking at what's there, it makes me feel more townish than scum

not by much, though

[ActionDan]

soon

[ActionDan]

there

[ActionDan]

will

[ActionDan]

be

[ActionDan]

blood

[Ankamius]

I'm a lot more skeptical of the question/answer thing than you are.

1. Sakura's wording of the first question looks staged. I don't like how she's asking him about a read on her based on scumreading GIF for the same thing, but asks what his opinion is instead of why he's not putting her in the same boat.

2. I don't like how when Sakura voted for Rylai, she stated that the last two posts were the reason she got the scumread. Since the first of the two was the post where he answered her questions, it feels odd that she decided not to comment on it before.

3. Combination of the above; Sakura pretty much ignored Rylai entirely after that point except to say that the scumread was too easy. It makes sense for this to be a play to try to gain towncred with pieguy and potentially gain some in the future if Rylai ever flipped scum.

a. I have no idea what to make of Rylai's readswitch on Sakura from town to null. Something's nagging me about it but I can't put my finger onto why.

[Ankamius]

Actually, now that I think about it, it could be possible that the question in 1 was meant to be a subtle nudge to put down a townread, then Rylai later decided on his own to put some distance between them by dropping that read later on.

[Ankamius]

ActionDan calm your tits

[Kilgamayan]

Just got home, about to sod off to bed.

Vote: ActionDan
Vote: Ooba

Still prefer the Ooba lynch by a fair amount to Katsuki or Ankamius.

[zMuffinMan]

the thing with point 3 is, again, that rylai disappeared for over half the day phase. so i mean... ok, let's use drezi as an example. after that initial case on rylai, nothing. why? because rylai wasn't here. meh.

the other two points may be correct