Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[Derangement]

And I am saying that's a fundamentally flawed idea because it increases your chance of a really bad result (a went somewhere without that spot being NKed player). I play conservatively with roles. Make the plays that have the lowest chance of "very bad" as the result, which is exactly what I did.

Do you think all power roles in this game are one-shot?

[LlamaFluff]

Now that Derangement doesn't buy the claim she's magically scum too. Isn't it funny how these things work out?

Ive been calling them a scum since the same post I claimed in so... that really doesn't add up.

Try harder.

[LlamaFluff]

I see no lie, no inconsistency, and definitely no after-the-unvote change of reasoning.Please clarify exactly what you think Prawn lied about.

Pretty simple

Most folk are townreads so I'm willing to POE lynch Onion Bubs or Marquis.

His recent buddying of me seems town though. I think I'm pretty unpopular at the moment and him putting his neck out supporting me doesn't seem to serve hypothetical scum-Marquis.

Do you realize that I said Marquis is a good lynch IF he doesn't improve or he replaces out? I got him to replace out. Now I don't want to lynch him. What is hard to understand about that?

Marquis replaced out Feb 26th. So Prawn is claiming the reason he decided Marquis was town came after him publicly saying such.

Funny part is the Feb 25th post flys in the face of why TTH wanted Marquis lynched too. Remember how TTH said that the reads he was giving were useless? The same reads that Prawn appears to have said Marquis was enough to change his mind.

I still don't think that TTH has actually elaborated on the whole "doesn't look legit" for why he wanted Marquis lynched. In fact he never even said WHAT "doesn't look legit" and is really ducking that question.

Its probably because he just jumped the wagon on that reasoning as scum trying to ride a general unpopularness of the slot.

[prawneater]

@LF What are your feelings on sns?

[Equinox]

@ChannelDelibird, Equinox, snscompt1, Untrod Tripod

I'd really like to know your thoughts on LF's claim.

It's really bothering me. As I mentioned before, LlamaFluff's reasoning matches what he said in Mafia Discussion some years ago, which admittedly only tells me that his thought process has been consistent. Again, the last thing I want to do is mislynch LlamaFluff -- been there, done that -- and, having read this most recent spate of interactions, I'm finally getting the sense that this isn't the usual LlamaFluff. This is what bugs me most because I don't understand what to do with that read, as most of my experience with him has been either misreading him as town or not caring because I was scum.

If I wanted to take the onion route of doing things, lynching LlamaFluff would be an okay thing to do. He's used up his shot, so that's not a reason to keep him around anymore. I'm not writing off his reasons for tracking Untrod Tripod because that is consistent with the LlamaFluff I know, but, now that he tells Derangement in post 729 that everyone besides his town reads are "null at best," it rubs me the wrong way. LlamaFluff should have gotten a read on me by now.

Overall, I'm really hesitant to do anything right now because I don't have as great of a grip on this game as I'd like. Having a handful of solid town reads is one thing, but I can really go back and forth on everyone else and the fact that the most helpful thing I can do to fix that is to read the damned thread again is itself the roadblock to clarifying those reads. Having to write a thesis on a relatively short deadline isn't helping, either.

...that was probably way, way more than what you wanted from me. The tl;dr of it is that it's not the claim with which I take issue right now.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Two, Vote Count #4

LlamaFluff – 2 – TellTaleHeart, onion
snscompt1 – 2 – Derangement, prawneater
prawneater – 1 – snscompt1
TellTaleHeart – 1 – LlamaFluff

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch and

3

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is

March 22, 2015, at 11:30 PM PST.

Countdown

: (expired on 2015-03-22 23:30:00)

Not Voting – 3 – ChannelDelibird, Equinox, Untrod Tripod

[Untrod Tripod]

hey girls

I'm baaaaaaaack

[Derangement]

Welcome back, Tripod!

What's your take on SNS's prodge-lurking, and Llama's current oddness?

[Untrod Tripod]

I think it would be hypocritical of me to scumread someone for lurking

that being said lynching sns is something I could get behind

Llama is no odder than he has been, and I find his arguments somewhat reasonable? I don't know. at a certain point I feel like we need to just lynch him so we can learn something.

I'm really fucking tired of reading the arguments, because I don't feel like we're ever going to learn anything from them. it's all wifom and theory.

[Untrod Tripod]

that's pretty much where I stand

Llama, onion, sns

I want one of them to hang today. I honestly don't care that much which one.

[Derangement]

Whoa. Why Onion?

[Untrod Tripod]

prawn

sorry

it's been a while

[Untrod Tripod]

also I'm scumreading TTH

[onion]

i keep waffling on if llama's hypothetical use of a track was protown or not. i mean, its presented as thought out and sense making, but i keep not liking it.

i'm going to disregard any possible outcome of a llama lynch other than Scum!Llama and Tracker!Llama because if he flips anything else, he deserves nothing but scorn forever and ever.

Tracker!Llama would be solely interested in forwarding town win-con, and that means using his power to provide as much useful information as possible. He presented his plan as trying to do this. Llama picked someone he had strong town reads on and tracked him. because tripod produced a negative result, that makes him a little bit more townish than he was before. while that is a benefit to the town, it seems like the track could have been better spent elsewhere.

Tracker!Llama could have tracked his strongest scum read. if his scumread was accurate, he'd get a 50% chance of hitting paydirt assuming 2 scum. 50% paydirt is a lot more paydirt than a bit of townish is worth. but if he was not very sure at all about his scumreads, it would make this harder. But Llama was rabblerousing yesterday about prawn forever and ever so he had a scumread he thought was solid.

so yeah i've convinced myself. Tracker!Llama should have tracked Prawn instead of Tripod. i would have believed his claim a lot more had this happened.

Scum!Llama, on the other hand, did exactly what he ought to do to forward his win-con. There'd be 2 paths to take here, the high risk and the low risk. low risk is fake-tracking someone others have a town-read on, and saying a negative result. this would make it very hard to disprove the role claim, and improve your longevity. the high risk route would involve picking someone you want to ace and saying a positive result on them, and trying to get them lynched, and then trying to fight off your own lynch the next day. which would be dumb but a lot more fun. people have said stuff about Llama being a conservative player.

so to those people: would Scum!Llama pick the low risk or the high risk route?

-=-

drunk me brought up something about Tripod and i really ought to hash that out and figure out if its true or not. he said

"if you flip tracker i'd feel better about tripod, but not as good as i'd feel if you flipped scum, because while tripod might have been scum dodging a tracker result, you ought not be scum with tripod due to your argument early in the game. "

so Llama and Tripod ought not both be scum because Tripod L-1'd Llama. However that statement is muddled by Tripod's known anti-win-con antics, and it seems entirely possible in my mind that scum!tripod would indeed L-1 his scumbuddy because tripod is crazy. but it can still be a loose implication at least. if you flip scum i won't stop suspecting Tripod. having it be you two would be like a nice scumbasket with a ribbon on top. If you flip tracker, i would actually feel a lot better about Tripod, because he is one of MY major scumreads, and someone I would have considered tracking. Getting a true negative result on him would make him less scummy. him l-1ing the tracker wouldn't make him more scummy because he's just crazy like that.

[Derangement]

There'd be 2 paths to take here, the high risk and the low risk. low risk is fake-tracking someone others have a town-read on, and saying a negative result. this would make it very hard to disprove the role claim, and improve your longevity. the high risk route would involve picking someone you want to ace and saying a positive result on them, and trying to get them lynched, and then trying to fight off your own lynch the next day. which would be dumb but a lot more fun. people have said stuff about Llama being a conservative player.

There's also a mid-low risk variant of the first one: Scum!Llama could actually pick

anyone

, and say he got a "went nowhere" on them.
Final result's just as inconclusive, except if people didn't already have a town-read on the person, they might not accept going nowhere as a slight towntell.

I'll share more of my thoughts on the matter once Llama answers this:

Do you think all power roles in this game are one-shot?

[Untrod Tripod]

Scum tracker is a thing

[Untrod Tripod]

Tripod's known anti-win-con antic

I am getting incredibly fucking tired of reading shit like this

stop going out of your way to insult me

[Untrod Tripod]

like, there are people in the game who have said "oh I just stopped reading onion's posts because he's a derp"

and I'm not going to do that because it's pretty against the spirit of the game to behave in that way

but start acting like an adult instead of a petulant goddamn child

[Derangement]

On a slightly different note, it's now been three days since both SNS

and

CDB posted.

@mod: Could we please request a prod?

[LlamaFluff]

Do you think all power roles in this game are one-shot?

Yes. But to answer the question I can see coming from you the correct time to use each type of night action differs, and tracking a player who doesn't have any more actions while not as bad, still outs a PR

@Equinox - Yeah that concerns me a bit too, especially as the "player I cant find a reason to call town but im not reading as scum" is usually the "competent scum" in the game from my experience. Not sure if that comes from you being quiet this game or not.

[Derangement]

Do you think all power roles in this game are one-shot?

Yes. But to answer the question I can see coming from you the correct time to use each type of night action differs, and tracking a player who doesn't have any more actions while not as bad, still outs a PR

Glad you and I think alike there.

My question is, then,

why

would outing a spent PR be a bad thing?
Aren't they like a confirmed Vanilla?

[petroleumjelly]

ChannelDelibird and snscompt1 have been prodded.

[snscompt1]

Prod acknowledged. Will post tonight. I will replace out if I can't keep up with this game. Sorry.

[ChannelDelibird]

Right, I'm reading up now. On shift atm but whatever, kinda want to tell my job to shove it today anyway. Sorry for being so lame.

[ChannelDelibird]

I think I believe Llama more than I did Yesterday, for reasons I am unable to articulate to myself, let alone you.

Kind of want to lynch onion. snscompt feels scummier than prawneater.

More detail on this when I'm not at work; just wanted to get some feelings out there now rather than later.