Touhou UPick 3 - [Game Over]

[Rylai Crestfall]

Honestly I'm just bored. Can't have some fun?

[Sky_Paladin]

Ank

Your attempts to resist the JK revealing target idea after we already had the discussion about why targeting me is the optimal choice

I think jailing confirmed town, or at least claiming an intent to, is the optimal choice since scum are likely to want to hit them.
Scum killing you would be ideal since you're 1/3 of our scum targets, and since I have reason to believe scum!Katsuki and scum!Ank, I'm sure you'll happily tweet in the next day phase "Geese guys, I was totes jailed by Katsuki, we can't be scum" regardless of what actually happened in the night phase. I'm not a fan of leaving Katsuki alive this day phase regardless unless he starts playing the game.

Also I don't think anybody really agreed to this strategy in the first place. There was some argument whether a passive ability still operates when jailed. That established that your plan was

possible

, and we still have time this day phase to consider it. My vote is no, because I don't trust you, or Katsuki.

if scum (that's not Katsuki) can still block, but the chances of that is virtually nothing.

I haven't seen anything in this thread to indicate that we have eliminated a scum roleblocker. Why do you think this is so?
What's to stop Katsuki from claiming he was roleblocked and just doing whatever he pleases?

Can we just lynch Rylai today?

If you can make a case where lynching Rylai is more likely to yield scum than lynching either yourself or Katsuki, you could persuade me to vote. However it still wouldn't matter, as the person you need to convince is Shadoweh, since she is the only one who can outvote Rylai at this point.
Rylai can also just end the phase whenever he feels like, so. Yeah we probably can't just lynch Rylai today no matter how much you think it's a good idea.

However if you want to make a case about why Rylai is scum? I think that would be a very good use of your time. At the moment I've mostly seen insinuations from you in all of your cases. Yesterday you categorically failed to make any substantiative case on me, your supposed number one scum read, and critically failed to vote for actual scum when you had two to choose from. If I had to choose between keeping you or Rylai in the game, right now I'd keep Rylai. Can you give me a good reason why you are a better choice?

If Katsuki doesn't jailkeep me tonight, then lynch him immediately tomorrow.

The problem is that if either of you are scum, which seems definite, you'll just lie about your actions.
Ank: "Wow gais, Katsuki didn't jail me" Kats: "WTF I totally did"
We have no idea which of you is scum or town.
Ank: "Wow gais I was jailed and Kats targeted me" "Uh huh sure did" "Oh look two town died somehow, well it wasn't us, we were busy making out"
Totally plausible as both of you as scum or both of you as town.

I'd prefer to vote based off of in game interactions and associations with known scum flips and voting history, over unknown alignment player action claims. Your words are a lot more valuable to me once you are confirmed town by somebody else who is confirmed town (See: GiF because flipped rolecop, FF because flipped Muffin) or flipped.

I'm pretty damn sure that Kilgamayan would've been able to see if I did or not.

I don't know about that. Do scum ever have factional abilities in this forum? I've played elsewhere, where individual players have their own abilities, but the scum team have a shared pool of abilities, in addition to their individual roles.

[Ankamius]

1. You're advocating putting the jailkeep into his hands to do whatever the hell he wants with, which is strictly worse if he's scum. By forcing him to use it on me and have me confirm it, it removes his options if he's scum.
2. There's no evidence at all of a recurring block ability being in the game, and the game state with so many confirmed or probtown players makes having a hidden block very unlikely.
3. Your point about lynching being more likely to net scum or not is completely irrelevant. A lot of this game is virtually PoEable and removing one from the unconfirmed will lessen the scumpool regardless.
4. Rylai ninjalynching is awful for his alignment regardless of what it is because he'll be lynched tomorrow guaranteed if he does.
5. Saying that we'll lie if one of us is scum is nonsense. I can't lie about him targeting me because I will get lynched and lose. He can't NOT target me because he'll get lynched and lose. Lying if we're both scum is bad because the chances of us being PoEd out in the end is too high for it to be any use over confirming each other's actions.

[Sky_Paladin]

1 - The jailkeep, if it exists, is already in his hands to do whatever the hell he wants. You're under the mistaken impression Katsuki will cooperate with town

even if he is town

. I'm advocating that we don't go ahead with any plan that requires Katsuki to cooperate, ideally because he's dead.

2 - There's no evidence that a recurring block doesn't exist in the game. It may also have been used on players and just had no effect - e.g. if Pie was roleblocked, we don't know, because he didn't use an action. We suspect there is at least one roleblock in the game, since it may have been used to kill Notty in night 2. Coincidentally, the player with the claimed roleblock-type action (Katsuki) also targeted Notty night 2, the night he died. 1 + 1 = 2?

3 - We

assume

the game is PoE at this point. We actually only have two properly confirmed town, FF and GiF. We have three probably scum - you, Katsuki, and Rylai, so lynching from this pool is advantageous only from the perspective of those three players are more likely to be scum by virtue of scum association or general uselessness to the team. If we kill all of you and it's not game over, then we have to assume that some of the probably-town players (Kagami, Pie, myself, any others I forgot) must be scum. To be honest, this is more likely, since I doubt the entire scum team through their weight behind killing me day 1, and underestimating the enemy is the first big mistake anybody can make. That's why I'm not satisfied with just lynching the three of you in any random order; I want the most scummy/least useful dead first (Katsuki), because there's at least a snowballs chance in hell of you doing something constructive. However, if we roll up to the next day phase with Katsuki/Rylai dead somehow and you are the last one left in our scum pool, are you going to meekly stand by and let us lynch you? I didn't think so. So why not get off your ass now and make a case on somebody you think is scum, rather than just handwave and go 'we should totes lynch this guy I say is scum', because that's the stance Katsuki took, and that's why he's getting lynched today - either auto-lynched by Rylai, or manually lynched by the rest of town. You and Pie are the only person I can see arguing for Rylai over Katsuki. So I want to see some reason for this other than 'gut'.

4 - Rylai can do whatever the hell he wants because discussion has died down and the phase is 3/4 over. You vote parked on me on day 1 further out than this in the middle of discussion as the counterwagon to flipped scum!Ooba, and refused to update your vote for no specific reason despite being present. That's why I'll vote you over Rylai at the moment.
In any case, it is not ninja-lynching. He's appealed multiple times if anybody has anything else to say before hammering. Waiting until the last minute for deadline for the sake of waiting wastes time and saps motivation.

5 -

Saying that we'll lie if one of us is scum is nonsense.

Scum lie. I just posited the most basic scenario.
You can lie about him targeting you because nobody believes Katsuki regardless of his alignment.
He can lie about targeting you because he doesn't give a fuck about anybody and doesn't care if he gets lynched.
If you are both scum (which I believe) then you'll both lie to save your necks, and when we lynch one and he flips scum, many will automatically assume "oh I guess the other is town."
Scum lie, scum always lie, town sometimes lie if they think it's a good idea, or if they think it's funny and they can get away with it.
Basically I don't trust you or Katsuki and any plan that requires us to trust you is a bad plan.

[Kagami]

While it's certainly possible there are 5 scum, the assumption is that there are 4, which is where ank's suggestion makes sense. Lying about the jailkeep results tomorrow is suicide for a 4-man team.

The issues I have is that I'm not certain there's only 4 of them given all the extra kills town appears to have and ooba's comment in the hood, and there's also the possibility that scum have either a roleblock or a strongman shot (which would be be disastrous).

I think rylai and ank are both town, btw.

Katsuki, could you check/answer something for me? If you had jailkept me night 1, and Pie's spellcard is as described, would my name be red during day 2?

[zMuffinMan]

your plan is to have cupcake target you and this tells us what?

[Kagami]

He thinks scum would potentially still make a kill and thereby clear him.

[zMuffinMan]

right...

anyway, i sincerely doubt FakeGod made a 14:5 setup

[Kagami]

I doubt it less sincerely, but I agree that 4 is more likely, which makes the jailkeep have real utility if they lack an answer to it.

[Ankamius]

No, that ensures that we know where the jailkeep goes regardless of his alignment.

[Kagami]

o right, your passive.

[Ankamius]

Should I just paraphrase everything Kilga and I said in our PT last night?

[zMuffinMan]

i think i already said somewhere what i think of the JK plan

tl;dr it gets us nowhere but if, for whatever reason, we go through with it, im fine with him targeting you

[Kagami]

Biggest problem with it is that it probably involves lynching someone who is more likely town than katsuki.

[Ankamius]

Isn't the relative PoE list for right now only consisting of three players?

[zMuffinMan]

Well, that depends on whether people agree with it. Some don't

It's not strictly confirmed to be within 3 players, there are just 3 players who I can find less reason to call town than others, and of them, I can at least find

some

reason to call the other two town.

[Ankamius]

Well, I'd be pretty surprised if there was any scum outside of {Katsuki, Rylai, Sky_Paladin}, so.

[Sky_Paladin]

You keep saying this, but you haven't established why you believe any of those players are scum. Care to clarify?

[Rylai Crestfall]

So basically you're advocating I lynch myself. I wouldn't be adverse to this plan if it weren't for the fact that it's going against my wincon and is lame. Don't know which of Anka and Katsuki I want to lynch more atm

[Ankamius]

Ooba's response to my reads list after literally never referencing me before even once makes me pretty certain I had scum besides Dan in my sights. Guess what that list contains.

Individual stuff is either stuff I went into already yesterday and hasn't changed since (Katsuki), unwilling to go into more because it would get nowhere and I'm not all that interested in pushing over the others (Sky_Paladin), and the slot that I'd have to paraphrase pretty much the entire conversation from my PT yesterday to really do justice (Rylai).

[Ankamius]

I never once said that you should lynch yourself. We have more than enough players to lynch you if we have to.

[Shadoweh]

Is there a particular reason I slept through a day and it's still not nightphase/game over here somehow? Did Katsuki become town today?

[Sky_Paladin]

Ank:
Can you please address the key points that Kilga raised, since you're unable to make a case on your own?

[Sky_Paladin]

Shadoweh: Ank wants us to lynch Rylai. Rylai doesn't feel like it. I guess it's a race between you and Rylai to see who lynches Katsuki first. I guess you could also lynch Ank, but I think Katsuki's a safer bet.

[Ankamius]

Yes that's clearly what's going on here. You figured it out.

(@2747)