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Post Post #775 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:12 am

Post by sthar8 »

catching up now. still at work so might disappear suddenly.
In post 598, pieguyn wrote: do you generally consider attempting to withhold suspicion of, and work with, scum reads as town a valid strategy?

p-edit: @sthar

Not really, no. I guess I can see a theory behind it, trying to see how your scumread interacts with other players in hopes of finding their team? But I see two major downsides. First, when confronted directly for an opinion about their partner, scum of any skill will be trying to avoid creating associatives. Since they know you're town, you're basically confronting someone who is prepared and dealing with you from a position of strength. I much prefer to associate scum through actions, like which wagons they push and who they buddy with. Second, imo obscuring your motives like that makes it harder for the town to read
you
, and harder for your thoughts to be used effectively if you die. This is a team game, and making it harder for your teammates to figure you out is not particularly helpful even if you catch all the scum alone.

How do you feel about establishing townreads and catching scum through POE?

I'm gonna do this via spam so I dont lose anything.
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Post Post #776 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:13 pm

Post by jasonT1981 »

In post 755, Trojan Horse wrote:Or perhaps scum will just sit back and hope for a no-lynch.


Does a no lynch benefit scum though? In my experience, it benefits town more.
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Post Post #777 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:14 pm

Post by jasonT1981 »

In post 772, SleepyKrew wrote:
In post 768, jasonT1981 wrote:I refuse to get any further into things I've explained it as best I can. No point beating a dead horse any further on this. Because it will just go around and around and is a waste of time explaining things further.

Nothing has been explained.


Well, that's all your getting. I refuse to get drawn back into this as it leads nowhere. If you don't understand it, tough.
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Post Post #778 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:36 pm

Post by Fenchurch »

SKrew, I agree with the point you are making in your questions, and I also don't agree with Jason's logic, but faulty logic doesn't make him necessarily scum (although it can be a tell), and I'm not interested in lynching him today, so I also think it's not helping.

Sthar, I'm not sure why you wouldn't have prioritised reading more of the game and commenting on Thor's claim, rather than writing a mini-essay on Mafia theory.

I've re-read Trojan. I still don't find him especially scummy, or especially town.

I realised that Thor declared VLA until after deadline, which is unfortunate.

This is a horrible choice. I would still like more people to consider Mala-scum, or else explain to me why Trojan is more likely scum.

I'll vote for one of Trojan or Thor by tomorrow if necessary to make sure we get a lynch, so consider my vote on one of those wagons, but I don't have any strong preference which so I'm not going to make the vote now.
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Post Post #779 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:37 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

So Thor is VLA, and he won't be able to respond to my question. Bleh.

A thought I had today: if Jason is scum and Thor is town, Jason's push to lynch me makes no sense. Jason would know that his goose is cooked if Thor survives the day, so he'd push to lynch Thor. (And he wouldn't look scummy for doing so; as has been pointed out, Thor has made a safe claim that he can get away with.) So either Jason is town, or... oh, this BETTER not be the truth... Jason and Thor are BOTH scum. So I'm certainly not going to push against Jason now.

In post 776, jasonT1981 wrote:
In post 755, Trojan Horse wrote:Or perhaps scum will just sit back and hope for a no-lynch.


Does a no lynch benefit scum though? In my experience, it benefits town more.


No. Imagine that there are two top lynch candidates, and one of them really is scum. If the town guesses wrong, bad for them, but they can then lynch the correct candidate the next day. But if there's a no-lynch, then the scum gets a free kill, and the town still doesn't know who to lynch. I'd say scum benefit from no lynch, most of the time.
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Post Post #780 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:40 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 774, VysePresident wrote:Heya, guys! I'm running off to work right now, so let's keep this simple. Who do I vote? Why?

@MOD: _now_ can we get a deadline extension? or was this an error?
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Post Post #781 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:44 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

No error, VysePresident has replaced Micc.

I think a deadline extension would be good, under the circumstances... but since Nexus said "no deadline extension" AFTER VysePresident replaced in, I don't think we're getting an extension.
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Post Post #782 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:51 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 778, Fenchurch wrote:This is a horrible choice. I would still like more people to consider Mala-scum, or else explain to me why Trojan is more likely scum.

there really isn't much of a case on TH

I have no idea why SK is voting him, jason is voting him bc he doesn't want to lynch a PR and bc he doesn't like how TH pushed him after his claim. I have no idea what Boon's reasoning is.

Egg (in addition to what you said) appears to be voting him bc he doesn't like his reaction to jason's claim - he believes TH feels way too strongly it's false - and he thinks this despite supposedly not believing jason's claim himself is true. this is also conditional around jason being town, again while he doesn't appear to believe the claim. this is a part of why I'm getting bad gut pings from the way the wagons are right now.

soooooo /shrug
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Post Post #783 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:00 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

My team is tossing me a ton of reads. Hang on...
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Post Post #784 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:07 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 756, Egg wrote:Pie, why is hider easier to fake? It's essentially confirming a townie every day
and if you confirm a buddy and one of you dies, the other is auto lynch
. Bodyguard can just say "I tried to protect X and failed" every day which works until there is an obvious protect.

the bolded isn't strictly true. if you fake claim hider as scum and clear a partner, and then get lynched yourself, the other isn't in any way an auto lynch. it's just a shitton of WIFOM regardless of how you attempt to look at it.

the only way it's an auto lynch is if the person who gets "cleared" is lynched, and if you're going to clear a scum partner you'd likely clear one who was not in danger of being lynched and you'd likely do it closer to endgame (ex. N2 or N3, although N1 isn't strictly impossible) - but again, it's just a shitton of WIFOM

the only thing that really makes it difficult is that you have to justify your continued survival, but this isn't that difficult either and even if someone does figure it out, it again opens the door for a shitton of WIFOM. this is even more so the case when you can go back sometime later and say "I was x-shot, didn't feel like claiming it, herp derp".

In post 756, Egg wrote:Also, I wasn't calling sthar scum for very long if you look at my ISO.

you were sure as hell calling him scum for longer than TH, and you appeared to feel strongly about it. this in particular

LMAO. So you think I voted you just to make you not care about the game and easy to lynch? Sorry, but it's a huge stretch to think that I'd think along those lines and even if I did you aren't the player I'd fear most if I was scum. That's not at all how I play anyway.

looked like you were at the very least skeptical of him, even if you weren't outright scum reading him.

In post 756, Egg wrote:Thor's posts since my second to last catchup look like his town meta. The way he argues with Jason and STD, specifically. And it's not that scum faking innocents on buddies "helps town". It's that the second one of them flips scum, the other is auto lynched which is risky. It's not impossible that this is what Thor is doing. It's just that calling it easy is just straight wrong.

OK

so what made the way he argued with jason/STD since your _second-to-last_ catchup any different than the way he was arguing with them _the entire fucking game before that_? in your second to last catchup there's direct questioning that indicates you're suspicious of him.


In post 775, sthar8 wrote:How do you feel about establishing townreads and catching scum through POE?

it's literally my primary strategy as both town and scum

in most of my games, I get a few scum reads but my major focus is usually on trying to form solid town reads and POE the game. usually I get somewhat solid results with it. I also tend to not get paranoid of my more solid town reads after I form them - the end goal being to hopefully be thinking about as many players as close to cleared as possible so that I don't have to worry about going wrong anywhere.

I tend to use a lot of circumstantial evidence in a way that something makes no sense if someone is scum. ex: in a recent scum game, I cleared a town player because of how one of my partners voted (he didn't attempt to save him despite previously posturing to get on the wagon that would have saved him), and I likely would have picked up on the same thing as town and pushed it harder than I did in that game.
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Post Post #785 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:15 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

Oversoul doesn't like Thor's claim; he doesn't think Nexus would put both a hider and a bodyguard in the same game, due to problems with role resolution.

Tammy thinks Thor is making up reads from his teammates; he put me down as a Nacho scumread here:

In post 521, Thor665 wrote:
In post 517, Egg wrote:Thor, I know you said it's a mild read, but can you explain why you lean scum on Trojan?

Mostly Nacho and Ffrey. Llamarble likes the slot and thinks he's team building...(?) but the other two find him a little shallow and empty. I agree with their takes. None of the reads are particularly strong but he feels opportunistic in a way to me, like he's drifting with the wind rather than planting and saying stuff - which I find extra strange in this format because, functionally, he should have lots of extra opinions being tossed at him. Makes it feel strategic.


but not here:

In post 591, Thor665 wrote:Hell, and the only other wagon of any note is *also* a Nacho town read.
Let's see; if I went off just Nachos's reads I'd be lynching sthar, Fenchurch, Micc, and maybe Delta.
Two of those are amongst my top town reads.


Also, Tammy wants jason to protect either pie or fen tonight. Two solid townreads from her (I agree with both). She also has townreads on jason, STD, and Boon (I'm iffy on Boon).

More coming...
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Post Post #786 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:26 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

In post 770, Malakittens wrote:
The only other possible lynch is Trojan Horse which I'm kinda on a null because I haven't really remembered a lot of his posts and I'm surprised Tammy hasn't been more engaging with me about my alignment, which I find as odd. I'm used to Tammy and I going head to head in games so her not trying to sort me is meh =\


She's trying to sort you. She doesn't like you attacking fenchurch for using wicked meta on you, when you are apparently doing the same thing to her. She's having a hard time reading you.

Please note that I haven't felt the need to reveal every read that my teammates have given me during the game. I've read them all and taken them into consideration, but I've only revealed what I felt I needed to reveal. If there's anything you want me to talk about, ask me.
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Post Post #787 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:33 pm

Post by SleepyKrew »

Well shit deadline's probably going to hit before I wake up and I'm still not right in the head. I think a TH lynch is the best viable option. Going to go pull up the stuff that set my teammates' scumdars off.
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Post Post #788 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:36 pm

Post by SleepyKrew »

Universal hatred for .
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Post Post #789 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:39 pm

Post by SleepyKrew »

Also Quil said the way Trojan went about his early interactions with me (about me not RVSing) reminded him of scum Trojan, and Reck was on board with that.
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Post Post #790 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:41 pm

Post by SleepyKrew »

He said TH likes to strawman as scum, and that the way he was oversimplifying and misrepresenting the game seemed to fit the bill.
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Post Post #791 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:41 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 785, Trojan Horse wrote:Tammy thinks Thor is making up reads from his teammates; he put me down as a Nacho scumread here:

I endorse the fuck out of this, fwiw.

(incidentally, it ties into the point I originally made on Thor a while back: there isn't any way town Nacho if he was actually reading this game has jason as anything but strong town at the point where I started townreading him.)
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Post Post #792 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:43 pm

Post by SleepyKrew »

Fuccccckkkkkk that Nacho read stuff
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Post Post #793 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:50 pm

Post by pieguyn »

OK

care to actually explain why it's wrong, then? hint:

In post 791, pieguyn wrote:if he was actually reading this game

this is not irrelevant. it's not really a 100% strong "omg must be scum" point, but I endorse it regardless. either way, I'll take this opportunity and remind everyone that there are a hell of a lot stronger reasons for Thor being scum here.
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Post Post #794 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:51 pm

Post by pieguyn »

also I'm waiting to see if you have any more points or if that's it
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Post Post #795 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:57 pm

Post by Malakittens »

In post 786, Trojan Horse wrote:
In post 770, Malakittens wrote:
The only other possible lynch is Trojan Horse which I'm kinda on a null because I haven't really remembered a lot of his posts and I'm surprised Tammy hasn't been more engaging with me about my alignment, which I find as odd. I'm used to Tammy and I going head to head in games so her not trying to sort me is meh =\


She's trying to sort you. She doesn't like you attacking fenchurch for using wicked meta on you, when you are apparently doing the same thing to her. She's having a hard time reading you.

Please note that I haven't felt the need to reveal every read that my teammates have given me during the game. I've read them all and taken them into consideration, but I've only revealed what I felt I needed to reveal. If there's anything you want me to talk about, ask me.


She's not though. If she was, she'd be asking me questions through you. Which she hasn't to my knowledge. I retracted that part of the Wicked meta plus the way I was applying it and the way Fench was its different imo.
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Post Post #796 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:59 pm

Post by Egg »

Guys too many words. I can't keep up.........
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Post Post #797 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:01 pm

Post by Trojan Horse »

In post 789, SleepyKrew wrote:Also Quil said the way Trojan went about his early interactions with me (about me not RVSing) reminded him of scum Trojan, and Reck was on board with that.


So, you're going to use meta from a game I played three years ago to conclude that I am scum?

You are right about one thing though. That game was on my mind at the start of this one. That game taught me a lesson: townies scumhunt right off the bat. I held back from scumhunting, and thus I was caught as scum.

That first post from you made me think you were doing the same thing I did in that game.
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Post Post #798 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:02 pm

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Oh piguy I wasn't saying "fuck that Nacho stuff it sucks", I was saying "fuck, I forgot about that Nacho read stuff while I was making my panicky shitcase on Trojan".
And right now my brain can seriously not tell me whether that inconsistency is worth a vote, or if it was possibly just a mistake by a town Thor. It also cannot tell me how I should feel about Trojan not presenting his finding in anything remotely close to how I'd expect a townie in his position to present it.
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Post Post #799 (ISO) » Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:05 pm

Post by SleepyKrew »

In post 797, Trojan Horse wrote:
In post 789, SleepyKrew wrote:Also Quil said the way Trojan went about his early interactions with me (about me not RVSing) reminded him of scum Trojan, and Reck was on board with that.


So, you're going to use meta from a game I played three years ago to conclude that I am scum?

You are right about one thing though. That game was on my mind at the start of this one. That game taught me a lesson: townies scumhunt right off the bat. I held back from scumhunting, and thus I was caught as scum.

That first post from you made me think you were doing the same thing I did in that game.

I've got no clue how fresh Quil's meta is. But if you haven't played since three years ago, then three year old meta shouldn't be stale, no?
"Townies scumhunt right off the bat" is another theory thing you've got completely wrong.
Excellent strawman though. Good job proving Quil's point, I guess?


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