Mini 1651: One Flew Over The Monkey's Nest(Scum Wins!)

[MonkeyMan576]

Vote Count 3.01 - up to post #1699.

No Lynch[1]: Eektor
Elyse[1]: Metalcyanide
Metalcyanide[1]: Elyse

Not Voting: Boonskiies, Bellaphant, TheDudeAbides, toolenduso, Aquanim

With 8 alive, it requires 5 votes to lynch.

Day ends on Friday, April 24th at 7:00 PM USA Mountain Time

, or when a lynch occurs

[Elyse]

I'm willing to go for a Bella or Boon lynch.

@Elyse I know you see metal as scum. Do you think that whole not voting for IL, was him WK'ing a townie instead of him defending a scum buddy?

I'm really not sure. If it comes down to it, I think Bella's handling of Metal will be very telling.

[Boonskiies]

I should probably go V/LA. I'm in dress rehearsal for my show, opening this weekend, and after we open, it should be much easier. I'm going to V/LA until 4/17. My hectic life will be becoming less hectic soon.

[toolenduso]

@Elyse

: This is probably going to be hard, but I'm going to ask you to reassess toolenduso. I townread him too for a long time... but I've begun to not like the way he's kind of tagged on the end of a lot of wagons after they gathered momentum (Taly and Metal day 1, Metal day 2).

Uh, well actually I was the second person to vote for Taly and that was after RC voted him and then switched his vote like 20 posts later.

Vote Count 1.04 - up to post #128.

Taly[1]: Toolenduso

With the metal stuff you can consider that I was trying to get people to vote for eektor for a while and was trying to avoid no-lynches.

VOTE: eektor

I want to see where this goes.

[Aquanim]

Be that as it may, I still no longer trust you, and I am concerned that Elyse does so blindly because you agreed with her on Taly and Metal.

[Elyse]

My read on tool is similar to my read on myko and I was right about that. I also have experience with tool and this feels like his town self.

[Aquanim]

I vaguely recall seeing you lose to Tool's scumgame once when I read your meta. If I'm recalling that correctly, what is the difference you're seeing between that game and here?

My concern with the Metal case is... well, it's a good case, but so was the Mykonian case. In some ways, so was the Taly case. Nevertheless, I feel-townread Taly, and I was right; you feel-townread Mykonian and you were right; TDA (and Mykonian, for that matter) feel-townread Metal, and I can at least see where TDA's coming from. Metal's... for lack of a better word, hysteria, about getting a lynch day 1, and the suicidal course of action he's chosen today (if he's scum, he's doing this with the blessing of his buddies?) do kinda feel towny, even if they're not good play.

[Elyse]

No he lost to my scum game. He feels the same here. Tool is a very cautious and methodical player.

I don't see how metal's switch onto me is town. It doesn't follow a logical town thought process. He threw his townread on me out the window and voted me for continuing my push on him.

[Aquanim]

I quite agree it doesn't follow a logical town thought process. The problem is I don't see a logical scum thought process either. What is he trying to accomplish?

[Aquanim]

No he lost to my scum game. ...

That happened too.

My recollection was correct - I was thinking of Mini 1568: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=48144

Admittedly it looks like a wacky theme game and you died n1.

[Elyse]

I don't even remember tool in that game tbh.

I think metal is just desperately trying to save himself and the best way to do that is discredit his attacker.

[Aquanim]

On some level I think that's an accurate assessment. I'm just not convinced that after consulting with his scumbuddies overnight, the best plan they could come up with is "you suicide into Elyse and we'll just watch you crash and burn". He could quite believably have gone after Eektor, Boonskiies or Bellaphant instead.

Perhaps my current line of thought is what they were hoping to accomplish. In the end, it's WIFOM.

What about desperately trying to save yourself at LYLO and attacking someone who wants you lynched (when you know you're town) is inherently untowny? I know the read's inconsistent with what he said day2, but townies do reassess the game after their scumreads flip town.

(I'm playing devil's advocate a bit here. The way the Insidious lynch on a V/LA lurker formed day 1 in opposition to the Metal wagon, and the Mykonian wagon built momentum day 2 so quickly, forms a pretty good story for Metal being scum. Nevertheless, we can no longer afford to get this wrong, so I'm trying to look at this from every angle.)

[eektor]

@Elyse Why do you think I make the most likely scum buddy of metal? You have me as his scum buddy in both cases with the possible third member Bella or tool.

@Aquanim Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see the IL lynch forming as a counterwagon to metal's lynch. Most people were on Taly and then when he got modkilled, the wagon on Taly split into metal and IL.

[TheDudeAbides]

...but how can I let this post live?

It's a bizarre post. I mean I don't think that town has given up on the game, so I don't think that post really jives with what is going on, and the bit about everyone voting who they want it is silly, but I don't think that the post is scummy. I'd expect scum to say something a little more thoughtful than everyone vote who they want.

About Eelyse's case on MC:

The best points:
- Wanting to lynch an un-CC'd cop day one. This is simply something that is inherently anti-town enough that it is scummy.
- Claiming that the comment about Eelyse was a reaction test. I just reread it and I have a hard time believing that MC's telling the truth.

I think that MC believing the cute cop, pushing the policy lynch on RC (pre-hard claim), calling out Eeylse as a lurker and his hypocrisy aren't scummy.

I don't really understand that point about MC's unwillingness to lynch IL. Unless it's meant as a buddy tell.

never really going back and forth with people

I think that I have gone back and forth with people.
I certainly tried to go back and forth the Myk.

Eektor

- could you tell me what you found fake in the exchange between IL and Metal.

The exchange didn't make sense, it doesn't seem natural. I don't know how to explain it more than that.

The problem is that you were town reading metal at the end of it, and
reading IL, so this isn't specific enough.

Also Eektor, see my 1684.

My read on tool is similar to my read on myko and I was right about that. I also have experience with tool and this feels like his town self.

Do you have experience with him, when he's scum?

[TheDudeAbides]

I just re-read the exchange between Elyse and Metal again. Here is the problem that I have with metal scum.

If Metal is scum, that means that he fabricated a case on Elyse, when he saw that it wasn't going well for him, since it was wrong, he stopped, backtracked and claimed to have made up the case. Then knowing that is how things would go if he pushed Elyse, he decided to vote her today.

I don't think that this makes any sense from scum when he could have simply stuck with his town read on her.

[TheDudeAbides]

Aquanim, what games are you using for meta on Eelyse and tool?

[Bellaphant]

I'm prod dodging for today

[Metalcyanide]

Be on later tonight

[Aquanim]

Aquanim, what games are you using for meta on Eelyse and tool?

I was mostly looking for scum games of Elyse; the two I read some of were Open 502 and Mini 1511. I don't recall learning much of importance, beyond generally understanding Elyse a little better.

I haven't set forth specifically to meta Tool but in looking through Elyse's games I found a scum game of his which I've perused briefly, Mini 1568. I just took a look over some random town games of his (read: skimmed his ISOs for about a minute) and... maybe there's a difference. Something along the lines of him being more conversational and relaxed as town. I'd need considerably more reading to be sure about that and in any case I'm not sure how I'd classify him this game.

[Elyse]

Those two games you looked at are two of my fave games <3 I love being scum.

[toolenduso]

I think that MC believing the cute cop ... (isn't) scummy.

Why not?

[Bellaphant]

I think town has giving up this game anyways. So everyone just vote for you who you want then I think we can try to figure it out from there after everyone casts a vote

That's a pretty bad idea, from a town perspective. if everyon just votes for who they likes scum quite possibly get an easy hammer on a townie to close out the game.

I really want to believe that if you were town you'd have thought that through. After the Mykonian flip I no longer have a lower bound on the incompetence of townies, but...

@Aqua, is this a comment on remaining town, or myk?

TDA is someone I've had trouble reading. I generally like his content, but his style of posting a bunch of times in a row to catch up and never really going back and forth with people makes it hard to read him. There is a small amount of paranoia that he and Aqua are scum together and are buddying me and feeding into my metal read but I don't think that's the case. Aqua's townread of him is just a little unnerving because I find it hard to read TDA, but maybe it's just me. And like Aqua said, with the way this town has been playing I wouldn't even be mad about it.

TDA is someone I would probably freak out about in LyLo but would be town, most likely.

I think scum is probably metal/eektor/Boon or metal/eektor/Bella. I don't see tool scum at all and Aqua is 99% town. If I had to guess and we made it to 3p LyLo, it would be some combination of {Bella, Boon, eektor, TDA} and all I'll say about that is I'll be glad to be dead lol.

Thanks for this. I've liked his posting a lot more since I asked you this. I'm actaully wondering if your first list is the correct one, as eek and boon I can see as scum.

@Elyse

: This is probably going to be hard, but I'm going to ask you to reassess toolenduso. I townread him too for a long time... but I've begun to not like the way he's kind of tagged on the end of a lot of wagons after they gathered momentum (Taly and Metal day 1, Metal day 2). Try to disassociate it from your Metal read. I don't know if he's scum, but I'm not really townreading him much any more.

I'll see what I can do about explaining my TDA read, but that's going to be difficult as well.
.

I like tool's response to this is really good, and I'm thinking that tool is town. I think boon's points about him were opportunistic, and if that was tVs I know who I'd be lookinh at.

I just re-read the exchange between Elyse and Metal again. Here is the problem that I have with metal scum.

If Metal is scum, that means that he fabricated a case on Elyse, when he saw that it wasn't going well for him, since it was wrong, he stopped, backtracked and claimed to have made up the case. Then knowing that is how things would go if he pushed Elyse, he decided to vote her today.

I don't think that this makes any sense from scum when he could have simply stuck with his town read on her.

But how does this mkae sense as town, either?

Anyway, one of the reasons I'm happier town-reading tool is that he is again highlighting eektor as being scummy. While his push on eek rung alarm bells for me when I replaced in, I think he's got some good points. Also, I've just won a scum-game with eek as my buddy in the newbie queue where my activity/posts were nothing like this, but he's still scum-reading me? I'd be happy with a metal/eek lynch today.

(If Aqua and Elyse are scum together, they have done a brilliant job and we should probably give up )

[MonkeyMan576]

Vote Count 3.02 - up to post #1721.

No Lynch[1]: Eektor
Elyse[1]: Metalcyanide
Metalcyanide[1]: Elyse
Eektor[1]: Toolenduso

Not Voting: Boonskiies, Bellaphant, TheDudeAbides, Aquanim

With 8 alive, it requires 5 votes to lynch.

Day ends on Friday, April 24th at 7:00 PM USA Mountain Time

, or when a lynch occurs

[Aquanim]

I think town has giving up this game anyways. So everyone just vote for you who you want then I think we can try to figure it out from there after everyone casts a vote

That's a pretty bad idea, from a town perspective. if everyon just votes for who they likes scum quite possibly get an easy hammer on a townie to close out the game.

I really want to believe that if you were town you'd have thought that through. After the Mykonian flip I no longer have a lower bound on the incompetence of townies, but...

@Aqua, is this a comment on remaining town, or myk?

...

It's a comment about Mykonian. I don't blame townies for sheeping the case on him.

Would you be happy with lynching Boonskiies today?

[eektor]

Anyway, one of the reasons I'm happier town-reading tool is that he is again highlighting eektor as being scummy. While his push on eek rung alarm bells for me when I replaced in, I think he's got some good points. Also, I've just won a scum-game with eek as my buddy in the newbie queue where my activity/posts were nothing like this, but he's still scum-reading me? I'd be happy with a metal/eek lynch today.

(If Aqua and Elyse are scum together, they have done a brilliant job and we should probably give up )

So you are town reading tool just because he thinks I'm scummy. I guess you are town reading everyone in this game as they all have me as one of their main scum suspects.

Then you say I must be scum because you are acting different than in the newbie game we were scum together and I'm still scum-reading you? Well, shouldn't you be acting different in this game if you were scum when I knew you were scum in the other game?

I have been scum reading IL from the beginning. The reason why I backed off was you replaced and I wanted to see what you did. You haven't done anything to convince me that you are town. Rereading the beginning of the game is confirming my suspicion that IL was scum and you replacing in the slot hasn't changed that. Also, with tool tunneling me these past 2 days, we are going to lose if we no lynch today.

VOTE: Belaphant