Paradise Lost - [Game Over]

SXTLHGaiden · Post Post #75 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:52 am

so we always just go back to case 1 then.
50% for conftown w/ scum kill

SXTLHGaiden · Post Post #76 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:56 am

Oh yeah, i forgot to mention that i'm totes conf town since it is impossible for me to roll scum in a FakeGod game.
i swear, it never damn happens.
i'm both impressed and saddened by it.

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #77 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:03 pm

In post 13, Equinox wrote:
In post 10, ArcAngel9 wrote:lets bandwagon...
VOTE: Grapes

Why grapes, ArcAngel9?

the grapes i get here in my country are not sweet. So I am not big fan of grapes. A lame reason but still true...

In post 17, Katsuki wrote:
Vote: AA

My vote is not moving for the rest of the game until he is lynched.

Get my gender correct first!!! Huh!!!!

In post 28, Glass wrote:@Elbirn
Do you subscribe to the idea submitted by farside in post 18? (ie. you find it suspect that mollie replaced out when she did).

If so, why do you think it is more likely that mollie would replace out as scum than as town?
Do you think Farside knows enough about Mollie to accurately deduce what would make her feel busy/overwhelmed?

@lufan
If it was Farside's post that piqued your interest, I would like your answers as well.

The mollie i know wouldn't replace as scum. Not sure if there are any past reference... Does she lurk as scum, yes.. replace? I haven't seen.

In post 33, Katsuki wrote:Who knows. She recently replaced out of other games too so it may be a sitewide thing.

Lets lynch AA first, then I will discuss what our optimal strat this game is.

Oh god. Would you stop chasing me for no reason. You're being silly for reason!!!

In post 41, SXTLHGaiden wrote:We no lynch until the Angel's kill doesn't go through.
Then the Angel claims and we are reduced to mountainous w/ a bulletproof IC who still has all the input of all the dead town.
We get no sin until then so the sin counter only goes up from that point.

Good point... Am not sure how this will work out but a good thought process. Keep it up.

In post 43, zMuffinMan wrote:that's a plan that favours scum heavily ftr, just from an odds perspective

i dont think losing on sin count is going to be that much of an issue this game unless town's collective reads are just plain awful in which case we're going to lose anyway so meh

ahh.... Have you forgotten the demons win condition? If sum of villagers sin equals to 9 means its auto win for Demons... do you really think that we can run till mylo or lylo with out having no sins in the lynches?

In post 44, Equinox wrote:On second thought, there may be no way to tell between the Angel's kill and the Demons' kill, so zMuffinMan has a point.

:shrug:

may be or may be not.

In post 66, lalaladucks wrote:HB Sakura Hana!

I'm thinking since there can only be one true angel, the other so-called angel must be fallen. So...

VOTE: ArcAngel9

Because 9 is 6 upside down = obviously demon

What? are you cousin of Kat?

lalaladucks · Post Post #78 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:09 pm

I didn't actually know AA was you, oops.
It's RVS, it's not supposed to make a lot of sense yet. If others say they're out of RVS, that was my first post so I was just conjuring up random nonsensical fluff~~~

zMuffinMan · Post Post #79 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:13 pm

look, gaiden, you're wrong

do any playtests with your idea and you'll see it's a largely scum-sided plan even without the possibility of basically outright losing because of the 50/50 chance

it's not good for town

like even assuming scum don't find the angel for 3 whole nights, you're looking at a 36% chance the vig hits no scum in that time and the numbers are 7:4 after that. if they block the angel the following night, 6:4 mylo

then you're gambling the game on a 50% chance of hitting only one scum

with 2 nights of being unblocked, it's a bit less than 50% chance of hitting scum with the angel shots and leaves us at 9:4. it's scum-sided here

even if the angel manages to hit one scum before they're blocked, it's still scum-sided by the time it goes into mountainous... the only way it wouldn't be scum-sided is if (a) scum players are incredibly bad / obvious, or (b) angel gets incredibly lucky

your plan is dumb. the game was designed around getting 2 town-controlled kills for every 1 scum-controlled kill

just... stop arguing it if you haven't even considered the numbers

sin is never going to be a way town loses if it's controlled properly (or if we hit scum with lynches) - like we can control it so that, assuming we lynch at least one scum by D3, the sin counter is only 2 by D4... sin is not an issue in this game unless the collective reads are just so bad that it becomes an issue, which is more a problem with the town being bad than the sin counter being an issue

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #80 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:18 pm

2 my lynches in day and 2 night kills can increase the sin count to 8. I am still worried Muffin.
I understand your point though...

And if anyone opens mouth for turbolynch or policy lynch..please shoot them!!!

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #81 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:19 pm

Scratch that "my"

ArcAngel9 · Post Post #82 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:19 pm

If not 8 at least 6. Sorry for getting my numbers wrong there ^

Katsuki · Post Post #83 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:24 pm

In post 77, ArcAngel9 wrote:

In post 17, Katsuki wrote:
Vote: AA

My vote is not moving for the rest of the game until he is lynched.

Get my gender correct first!!! Huh!!!!

p sure I have your gender correct.

Let's make a bet - if you're a dude, you get to chop off your dick.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #84 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:26 pm

*sigh*

look

let's say we don't organise who is on the lynch in any way (which is one of the optimal plans i came up with pre-game but ignoring it for the sake of argument)

unless the angel is being incredibly stupid and hero-vig shooting from the people on the wagon and hitting town anyway, the sin counter is going to be, at most, 1 come D2

D2 we organise it so that anyone who was on the D1 wagon is off it at the next lynch and anyone who is off it is now on it, so that everyone's sin count is 1 IF we mislynch again

come D3, if the angel hits town again, the sin counter is at most 3

this is assuming worst case scenario (2 mislynches in a row with angel not hitting scum)

if we mislynch again and the angel STILL doesn't hit scum then yeah our sin counter will be high but that is the fault of an awful town with awful reads, not an issue with the sin counter

in any scenarios where town isn't incredibly bad with lynches / vig shots, the sin counter remains relatively low until much later in the game

if we hit scum with lynches, it isn't even an issue

Katsuki · Post Post #85 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:28 pm

Um

If there are 8 townies on a D1 mislynch, the sin counter going into D2 is 8, not 1.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #86 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:28 pm

sin counter only matters if someone is killed

zMuffinMan · Post Post #87 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:31 pm

or lynched

farside22 · Post Post #88 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:33 pm

In post 70, lalaladucks wrote:
In post 68, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 66, lalaladucks wrote:HB Sakura Hana!

It's not my birthday it's my scum day (and it's actually tomorrow, on my timezone at least)

Oh well, I see a cake next to your pic anyway

Have you read anything this game so far?

I'm on my (screencracked) phone as my laptop isn't cooperating, so it's a little harder to read the stuff ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I've gathered that Muffin dislikes Cupcake (Katsuki) for some reason I guess, other than rivalry...
And mollie replacing out was very strange, yes - I'd initially thought maybe because she got town and thought it was boring so left..? But the others seem to think more likely she was scum? Idk, I haven't completed any games with her so I'm not sure what she prefers.
Gaiden's lurking is annoying, the no lynch vote was kinda strange (was it a joke?)
But quite a few players haven't even joined us yet, so we can't make any hasty conclusions.

How is gaiden lurking?
Why is it weird?

Albert B. Rampage · Post Post #89 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:37 pm

Vote: lufan131

lufan131 · Post Post #90 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:40 pm

In post 85, Katsuki wrote:Um

If there are 8 townies on a D1 mislynch, the sin counter going into D2 is 8, not 1.

Yeah, which isn't terrible unless they all die. Then we lose

lalaladucks · Post Post #91 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:40 pm

In post 88, farside22 wrote:
In post 70, lalaladucks wrote:
In post 68, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 66, lalaladucks wrote:HB Sakura Hana!

It's not my birthday it's my scum day (and it's actually tomorrow, on my timezone at least)

Oh well, I see a cake next to your pic anyway

Have you read anything this game so far?

I'm on my (screencracked) phone as my laptop isn't cooperating, so it's a little harder to read the stuff ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I've gathered that Muffin dislikes Cupcake (Katsuki) for some reason I guess, other than rivalry...
And mollie replacing out was very strange, yes - I'd initially thought maybe because she got town and thought it was boring so left..? But the others seem to think more likely she was scum? Idk, I haven't completed any games with her so I'm not sure what she prefers.
Gaiden's lurking is annoying, the no lynch vote was kinda strange (was it a joke?)
But quite a few players haven't even joined us yet, so we can't make any hasty conclusions.

How is gaiden lurking?
Why is it weird?

I refer to his general behaviour, not in this game especially.
It's RVS - what does a No Lynch vote achieve? Nobody is pressured, people are distracted by it and wonder why he did it..
Did you agree with the No Lynch vote? Did it seem completely ordinary and a good way to progress the game?

Hey Albert!

SXTLHGaiden · Post Post #92 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:43 pm

Gaiden is weird since he isn't lurking right now.
i suggest we wagon him and shit.

Katsuki · Post Post #93 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:46 pm

hey albert I heard you tore your wound open are you ok bro?

zMuffinMan · Post Post #94 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:58 pm

i don't dislike cupcake

don't take it personally, cupcake, i tried to woto everyone but fakegod didn't consider me wise enough to allow that apparently

prick

RedCoyote · Post Post #95 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:59 pm

Equinox 7 wrote:What manner of role PM did you get that caused pirate mollie to replace out?

Also, RedCoyote, let's be masons together!

Nice opening question/observation. It happened so fast that I didn't see who stepped in for her.

And sure thing! You bring the sashes and robes, I'll bring some pretzels.

---

Kat 17 wrote:My vote is not moving for the rest of the game until he is lynched.

And Kat immediately sticks his foot in his mouth with a comment that comes across as scummy to me. Must mean he's town... right, Kat?

---

farside 18 wrote:Mollie hasn't replaced out pre game with me before.
I find it suspect that she replaced out when she did.
If we didn't like a player there was wotc.

I can guarantee you two things about mollie. 1) She hates playing as scum. 2) She's been able to hold down, like, 5 or 6 games at a time with 4 or 5 different hydras. Take that how you will.

---

Kat 19 wrote:Well, maybe she wasn't keeping a close eye on the signup thread and missed the chance to WOTC someone.

Have any left out.

---

lufan 22 wrote:I like this idea, of what role
could
it be?

What does your question mean? This is an open setup. Or is this a joke?

lufan 31 wrote:Others:
Yeah. Looked at the player list history to see when/if they dropped.

Hm? What does this mean?

---

STXLH 38 wrote:cause no lynch is clearly superior

See, this is what I don't get. This is why I didn't want to sign up. Are you suggesting we NL until lylo because of the sin counter?

Okay... I'm reading some of the other discussion. So we should NL until the Angel is roleblocked. Sounds like a solid strategy, but the main problem I see with this plan is it's going to be harder than you think trying to get scumreads without votes/wagons to analyze.

---

Glass 52 wrote:If only 1 kill goes through and somebody claims angel with a CC, how do you know which is the angel? I think that lynching is the optimal play here.

We should assume this unless the Angel/town is shooting/lynching well and the Demons aren't.

Glass 58 wrote:lufan probably didn't realize that Mollie was signed up for this game

Explain, please.

---

lalala 70 wrote:I'm on my (screencracked) phone as my laptop isn't cooperating, so it's a little harder to read the stuff ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I've gathered that Muffin dislikes Cupcake (Katsuki) for some reason I guess, other than rivalry...
And mollie replacing out was very strange, yes - I'd initially thought maybe because she got town and thought it was boring so left..? But the others seem to think more likely she was scum? Idk, I haven't completed any games with her so I'm not sure what she prefers.
Gaiden's lurking is annoying, the no lynch vote was kinda strange (was it a joke?)
But quite a few players haven't even joined us yet, so we can't make any hasty conclusions.

I dislike the "easyness" of this post, for lack of a better word. I hope to see something a little more substantial from lalala in her next post.

---

I like Muffin's 79, and it seems to be a good rebuttal to STXLH's plan... but,

Muffin 84 wrote:D2 we organise it so that anyone who was on the D1 wagon is off it at the next lynch

I can guarantee you that's easier said than done. I'd go so far as to say that ain't going to happen. Not on D2. Who are people going to listen to? Granted, there's self-interest in not wanting to get your sin counter up, but the players that want to vote are thinking that the person they're voting is scum anyway.

---

[quote="lalala 91']I refer to his general behaviour, not in this game especially.
It's RVS - what does a No Lynch vote achieve? Nobody is pressured, people are distracted by it and wonder why he did it..
Did you agree with the No Lynch vote? Did it seem completely ordinary and a good way to progress the game?[/quote]

lalala, you need to get up to speed. I just spent ~30 minutes reading the game and I feel sufficiently caught up with what has been discussed so far. I was willing to cut you slack with your first couple of posts being kind of lame, but with this post I get the idea that this is as far as you're able to delve into SXTLH's plan. These questions are too shallow and come across as though you're just throwing out useless filler.

VOTE: lalaladucks

zMuffinMan · Post Post #96 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:07 pm

In post 95, RedCoyote wrote:I can guarantee you that's easier said than done. I'd go so far as to say that ain't going to happen. Not on D2. Who are people going to listen to? Granted, there's self-interest in not wanting to get your sin counter up, but the players that want to vote are thinking that the person they're voting is scum anyway.

there are a number of ways this could be organised, it's not particularly hard

for example, we could have the wagon as normal but when it reaches L-3 or L-2 the next votes are just FoS such that if the person reaches lynch via those FoS votes, we organise the wagon in such a way that we can achieve this... or other similar methods of achieving the same result

it's antitown to refuse, so unless you're scum or a knobhead, you'd agree to this for the overall good of the game

assuming no one can think of a better way to keep overall sin low

(though this all assumes we won't be deadline lynching people, so i guess that's a potential issue)

zMuffinMan · Post Post #97 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:16 pm

In post 67, Sakura Hana wrote:@zMuffinMan: Now that i remember you've been scum together with Gaiden before, is he the type of person to just roll with whatever or form some sort of startegy pre-game?

what kind of answer were you expecting here? you could just go check the scum QT yourself if you were really interested, but that game wasn't an open setup and this one is and i'm not a huge fan of comparing apples and oranges (though if we're going to, orange juice is superior to apple juice, but apples are arguably a superior fruit overall) so uh... i don't know?

Glass · Post Post #98 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:18 pm

RedCoyote wrote:
Glass wrote:lufan probably didn't realize that Mollie was signed up for this game

Explain, please.

Sure.

lufan wrote:
Glass wrote:
lufan wrote:It was. He laid it out in an easier to understand way, and if both had the same reason, I decided to look.

1.
Do you mean easier to understand than what Equinox posted?
2.
Decided to look at what, exactly?

Others:

1.
Yeah.
2.
Looked at the player list history to see when/if they dropped.

So I guess "didn't realize Mollie was signed up" is incorrect. It would be more correct to say "didn't realize I replaced Mollie".

farside22 · Post Post #99 (ISO) » Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:25 pm

In post 91, lalaladucks wrote:
In post 88, farside22 wrote:
In post 70, lalaladucks wrote:
In post 68, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 66, lalaladucks wrote:HB Sakura Hana!

It's not my birthday it's my scum day (and it's actually tomorrow, on my timezone at least)

Oh well, I see a cake next to your pic anyway

Have you read anything this game so far?

I'm on my (screencracked) phone as my laptop isn't cooperating, so it's a little harder to read the stuff ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I've gathered that Muffin dislikes Cupcake (Katsuki) for some reason I guess, other than rivalry...
And mollie replacing out was very strange, yes - I'd initially thought maybe because she got town and thought it was boring so left..? But the others seem to think more likely she was scum? Idk, I haven't completed any games with her so I'm not sure what she prefers.
Gaiden's lurking is annoying, the no lynch vote was kinda strange (was it a joke?)
But quite a few players haven't even joined us yet, so we can't make any hasty conclusions.

How is gaiden lurking?
Why is it weird?

I refer to his general behaviour, not in this game especially.
It's RVS - what does a No Lynch vote achieve? Nobody is pressured, people are distracted by it and wonder why he did it..
Did you agree with the No Lynch vote? Did it seem completely ordinary and a good way to progress the game?

Hey Albert!

I liked guilds comment I was thinking of a nL stategy but I weighed pro's and con's about it.

At best the discussion gives a way to win the game if people work together as muffin suggested.
The con of nL is what you suggested it gives no pressure and no info.