Mini 1651: One Flew Over The Monkey's Nest(Scum Wins!)

[eektor]

I think Bella and TDA would be the most likely to be scum on that wagon

Why?

Because their reasons for joining the wagon is more suspect than the other 2 (you and metal).

This doesn't cut it.

Would you agree with me that there is at least one scum in the myko wagon?

[Aquanim]

...
@Aquanim Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see the IL lynch forming as a counterwagon to metal's lynch. Most people were on Taly and then when he got modkilled, the wagon on Taly split into metal and IL.

I think your recollection is inaccurate. There was a significant Metal wagon even before the Taly modkill:

Vote Count 1.12 - up to post #799.

Taly[4]: Elyse, mykonian, InsidiousLemons, toolenduso[L-3]
metalcyanide [4]: RadiantCowbells, Aquanim, Boonskiies, Taly[L-3]
RadiantCowbells[1]: Metalcyanide
Not Voting[3]: eektor, pisskop, TheDudeAbides

With 12 alive, it requires 7 votes to lynch.

Day ends on Monday, March 16th at 5:10 PM USA Mountain Time, or when a lynch occurs

That being said, the Metal wagon was at that point composed of players I did not feel comfortable on a wagon with on principle. (RC, Boon and a newbie? Come on.)

It is also true that with Taly's modkill and RC going off somewhere else the only common players between this votecount and later are myself and Boonskiies. Even so the Insidious wagon was nowhere to be seen until after Taly flipped, at which stage the only lynch on the table was Metal.

[eektor]

@Aquanim You are correct. One thing though I noticed is that if you think the IL wagon was to counter metal's wagon (assuming metal is scum), the people on IL's wagon ended up being confirmed town.

From what I saw, I started voting for IL, then after a while pisskop (confirmed town) joined, later mykonian (confirmed town) joined. At the end TDA joins. If metal is scum, I would put Bella as scum buddy for him refusing until pressured to vote for IL and TDA as joining the counterwagon of his scum buddy. Which I think contradicts itself and doesn't make sense for that to be the scum team.

[Boonskiies]

VOTE: Elyse

[Aquanim]

@Aquanim You are correct. One thing though I noticed is that if you think the IL wagon was to counter metal's wagon (assuming metal is scum), the people on IL's wagon ended up being confirmed town.

From what I saw, I started voting for IL, then after a while pisskop (confirmed town) joined, later mykonian (confirmed town) joined. At the end TDA joins. If metal is scum, I would put Bella as scum buddy for him refusing until pressured to vote for IL and TDA as joining the counterwagon of his scum buddy. Which I think contradicts itself and doesn't make sense for that to be the scum team.

Yes, a fair few people on that wagon flipped town. I also have to consider the possibility that you're scum with Metal and started the counterwagon on the Insidious slot, though I suppose you don't have to. Why do you not consider the possibility that if Metal and Bellaphant are scum, the remaining scum bussed Metal instead of Insidious?

VOTE: Elyse

..............................................................................

@Metalcyanide, Boonskiies

: Would one of you please unvote Elyse? I don't think there's any immediate risk of a three-way scum hammer (not because I think Elyse is scum, mind you) but better safe than sorry.

[Boonskiies]

unvote

[Elyse]

VOTE: Elyse

Why

[eektor]

@Aquanim You are correct. One thing though I noticed is that if you think the IL wagon was to counter metal's wagon (assuming metal is scum), the people on IL's wagon ended up being confirmed town.

From what I saw, I started voting for IL, then after a while pisskop (confirmed town) joined, later mykonian (confirmed town) joined. At the end TDA joins. If metal is scum, I would put Bella as scum buddy for him refusing until pressured to vote for IL and TDA as joining the counterwagon of his scum buddy. Which I think contradicts itself and doesn't make sense for that to be the scum team.

Yes, a fair few people on that wagon flipped town. I also have to consider the possibility that you're scum with Metal and started the counterwagon on the Insidious slot, though I suppose you don't have to. Why do you not consider the possibility that if Metal and Bellaphant are scum, the remaining scum bussed Metal instead of Insidious?

So if you think me and metal is scum, why would metal have to be pushed to join the counterwagon on IL. Why would me and metal go for the myko lynch when myko was town reading metal and started to see me as town? I don't think metal is scum, but if you guys think metal is scum, it is only logical to think Bella is his scum buddy. I think Bella is scum and it's the best bet for lynching scum today.

[Aquanim]

I think you missed the last question: if Bellaphant and Metal are both scum, you appear to have only considered the possibility that the third scum was on the InsidiousLemons wagon (hence concluding that it's TDA). What makes you think that the third mafia would not be on the Metal wagon day 1 instead?

[Bellaphant]

It's a comment about Mykonian. I don't blame townies for sheeping the case on him.

Would you be happy with lynching Boonskiies today?

Okay, thanks. And, yes. Especially after his Elyse naked vote.

So you are town reading tool just because he thinks I'm scummy. I guess you are town reading everyone in this game as they all have me as one of their main scum suspects.

Then you say I must be scum because you are acting different than in the newbie game we were scum together and I'm still scum-reading you? Well, shouldn't you be acting different in this game if you were scum when I knew you were scum in the other game?

I have been scum reading IL from the beginning. The reason why I backed off was you replaced and I wanted to see what you did. You haven't done anything to convince me that you are town. Rereading the beginning of the game is confirming my suspicion that IL was scum and you replacing in the slot hasn't changed that. Also, with tool tunneling me these past 2 days, we are going to lose if we no lynch today.

VOTE: Belaphant

My read on Tool isn't just based on that: the case boon pushed on him was terrible, I've re-read his interactions with Taly, which look way too...invested for him to be scum, and I like his considered approach to new situations: he looks like he's legit trying to sort the game.

Yes, a fair few people on that wagon flipped town. I also have to consider the possibility that you're scum with Metal and started the counterwagon on the Insidious slot, though I suppose you don't have to. Why do you not consider the possibility that if Metal and Bellaphant are scum, the remaining scum bussed Metal instead of Insidious?

Looking at how the wagons formed, the former makes sense. Also, looking at the wagons, I can understand Elyse's frustration about not getting metal lynched.

VOTE: Elyse

Why??

I think you missed the last question: if Bellaphant and Metal are both scum, you appear to have only considered the possibility that the third scum was on the InsidiousLemons wagon (hence concluding that it's TDA). What makes you think that the third mafia would not be on the Metal wagon day 1 instead?

@eek, can you explain, other than the above, other reasons that TDA is scum?

[eektor]

I think you missed the last question: if Bellaphant and Metal are both scum, you appear to have only considered the possibility that the third scum was on the InsidiousLemons wagon (hence concluding that it's TDA). What makes you think that the third mafia would not be on the Metal wagon day 1 instead?

I think you missed the point. I expanded your thought of metal being scum and IL being a counterwagon to conclude in that situation TDA would be a most likely scum buddy. I don't think the three of them are scum, I don't think metal is scum. Feel free to add a third member to the metal, Bella scum team as you are saying you think metal is scum.

My question to you, is are you willing to vote for Bella? The only person I see you thinking of lynching so far is metal and Boon, is that correct?

[eektor]

My read on Tool isn't just based on that: the case boon pushed on him was terrible, I've re-read his interactions with Taly, which look way too...invested for him to be scum, and I like his considered approach to new situations: he looks like he's legit trying to sort the game.

I think you missed the last question: if Bellaphant and Metal are both scum, you appear to have only considered the possibility that the third scum was on the InsidiousLemons wagon (hence concluding that it's TDA). What makes you think that the third mafia would not be on the Metal wagon day 1 instead?

@eek, can you explain, other than the above, other reasons that TDA is scum?

I wasn't aware Boon had presented a case on tool, what was so terrible about his case?

Also, like I said before I don't think TDA is scum (well I'm not sure, but I definitely not going to push or vote for him today).

[toolenduso]

Boon, I would really like to know why you voted for Elyse just now and also why you unvoted.

[Aquanim]

@Toolenduso

: What do you think about the case Eektor has presented for Bellaphant, and the chat I've been having with him?

[toolenduso]

The case against Bella was pretty weak IMO. I can go into detail later if you want but the short version is: "straw man argument with a flawed premise, misunderstanding/misrep of what Bella was saying, unspecified reasonings that involves IL but not Bella."

I can't really say much about your conversation with eektor because it has revolved around one sentence in #1727 that is worded in a way I cannot understand.

[Aquanim]

The case against Bella was pretty weak IMO. I can go into detail later if you want...

Yes, I want to see your thoughts in detail.

[Metalcyanide]

Still here.

[Aquanim]

@Metalcyanide

: Same question as for Tool. What do you think about the case Eektor has presented for Bellaphant, and the chat I've been having with him?

[toolenduso]

Yes, I want to see your thoughts in detail.

OK:

So you are town reading tool just because he thinks I'm scummy. I guess you are town reading everyone in this game as they all have me as one of their main scum suspects.

This is a version of the strawman argument because it argues that Bella townreads everybody who scumreads eektor. Obviously this is said tongue-in-cheek, but even then the premise is flawed because eektor is saying that "everyone in this game" has eektor as one of their main scum suspects.

I could go through and try to find everybody's most recent statements about eektor, but if it's true that everybody has eektor as one of their main suspects then why have I been more or less alone in trying to push an eektor lynch for like the past three days now?

Hence, flawed premise.

Then you say I must be scum because you are acting different than in the newbie game we were scum together and I'm still scum-reading you? Well, shouldn't you be acting different in this game if you were scum when I knew you were scum in the other game?

OK re-reading this now I see that I misunderstood what eektor was saying -- I thought he was arguing that Bella was acting the same as in their scum game together. Regardless, the problem with the argument is that it is only an argument for why Bella

isn't necessarily town

from that one point, which is not the same as an argument for why Bella

is actually scum.

If eektor was trying to imply that Bella is intentionally acting differently because she knew eektor would know what her scum game looked like, then eektor's point is basically a hypothetical with no support behind it.

I have been scum reading IL from the beginning ... You haven't done anything to convince me that you are town.

Fair enough, but that doesn't give me much to think about in the way of determining whether Bella is town or scum. I wasn't scumreading the IL slot before he replaced out, so I don't share this view.

[Aquanim]

...

My question to you, is are you willing to vote for Bella? The only person I see you thinking of lynching so far is metal and Boon, is that correct?

VOTE: Bellaphant
Does that answer your question?

Actually, since that's two votes.
UNVOTE: Bellaphant
while I consult with a couple of people. You may however take that as intention to vote Bellaphant.

My reasons aren't entirely the same as yours, though.

I would characterise the Mykonian wagon as being "controversial". He is an experienced player, strong-willed and argumentative; though it didn't really eventuate that way this time because he was V/LA over Easter, I can well imagine him going down all guns blazing. My experience with wagons of this kind on townie is that mafia are very hesitant to get on such a wagon, if they do so at all.

So far as I can see, that sums up Bellaphant's attitude to the wagon entirely. Despite the fact that she consistently scumread Mykonian:

...
Scum:
Myk: this is mostly gut, I don't like a lot of his pushes.
...

...
Myk seems to be defending metal; now, metal may or may not be scum, but either way he's not obv!town, as evidenced by points raised in Elyse's 1446 and his defense/counter in 1448. Regardless of Elyse's alignment (though I'm currently town-reading her), there is some suspicious activity and I can't see the advantage of town!Myk defending this.
...

Bellaphant put off voting for Mykonian until near the end of the day, and (both at the time and Day 3) tried to cast it as a vote "to avoid a no-lynch". As far as I recall, she is the only player on the Mykonian wagon who has attempted to avoid responsibility for that flip.

While Eektor may have put his first point about Bellaphant townreading Tool a bit awkwardly, it does seem a strange reason for Bellaphant to townread Tool all of a sudden. Tool's been pushing Eektor all game, what changed for Bellaphant to move Tool from a scumread to a townread?

I don't think that Bellaphant playing differently to how she played as scum with Eektor in their other game is particularly indicative either way. Knowing that Eektor would be familiar with her previous meta, she might well play differently here if she were scum, but that's not a positive argument that she is not town.

I have not reread InsidiousLemons' posts in some time; I was not particularly strongly townreading him day 1, though I felt that lynching Metal was preferable to lynching someone who had presumably been in hospital for the past week. I might do that, though I'm not sure it's necessary.

[MonkeyMan576]

Vote Count 3.03 - up to post #1744.

Elyse[1]: Metalcyanide,
Metalcyanide[1]: Elyse
Eektor[1]: Toolenduso
Bellaphant[1]: Eektor

Not Voting: Bellaphant, TheDudeAbides, Aquanim, Boonskiies

With 8 alive, it requires 5 votes to lynch.

Day ends on Friday, April 24th at 7:00 PM USA Mountain Time

, or when a lynch occurs

[TheDudeAbides]

Prod dodge.
Tomorrow.

[Elyse]

Good points about Bella.

I really want Boon to explain his vote on me and why he's not supporting a no lynch if he's wary of me.

[eektor]

@metal Is there anybody else besides Elyse you want to vote for? Would you vote for Bella?

[Metalcyanide]

Sorry I've lost a lot of interest in this game. It's been a bad few weeks. I'm trying to catch up on the current situation and I'll let you know who I want to vote for besides Boon but I'm really only against a TBA and Aqua vote right now.