In post 2522, ZZZX wrote:In post 2520, ooba wrote:In post 2518, ZZZX wrote:actually ooba i want to ask you something interesting.
what is your top TOWN read outside of the blok?
GreyIce - miles ahead top town for me.
another guy other than grey btw?
In post 7, Metal Sonic wrote:I am a Daycop. I have a guilty result on Sotty7. Please commence lynching of Sotty7.
VOTE: Sotty7
GreyICE, I've heard of you. They all talk about how you are a good scumhunter. Well, this is me experiencing it for myself.
In post 349, Kagami wrote:In post 348, Seraphim wrote:
Kagami, got anything to say that's especially interesting? Why are you into the vengeful thing?
Because sotty is going to flip town, and it will make this game infinitely simply when day 2 begins with a theory discussion between greyICE and hoopla about why it's important to follow our hearts and how we shouldn't let dead townies tell us what to do.
In post 350, Seraphim wrote:Why do you think sotty will flip town?
In post 351, Kagami wrote:In large part because greyICE wants to lynch him.
Why do you think he's scum, and why do you think grey is town?
In post 354, Kagami wrote:I read that, serephim. It's not compelling. I agree that sotty's play isn't amazing, but I've seen far worse from town being tunneled into the ground.
GI's posting is bizarrely inconsistent, which is ironic given he says the same of sotty. The best point he makes is the token thing.
He complains that sotty is willing to town block with players who haven't even posted against, pointing to a list that is probably just people sotty likes/has played with before. Later hoopla shows up later saying she'll sheep GI and ABR and just gamble that they're town. Hoopla gets a solid town for that because hoopla understands the need to town-block.
He should have had hoopla as town at 114, given his suspicion of sotty. Instead, there are sprinkles of "hoopla might be scum" in the token conversation and hoopla's opening is "deliberately uninteresting." He decides hoopla is town at 272 for whatever reason. I asked him about it, and apparently GI doesn't do pre-flip associations. Meanwhile, Eddie is revving a chainsaw in 258.
sotty is apparently pathetic and the worst liar ever. And is a legendary scum player in the next post.
There are other little things too. I don't believe town greyICE would ever utter "scum caught for the wrong reasons." He's just too smart to believe that. 277 is another ridiculous thing I don't think town-GI would say. "One of my townreads is scum" reads as "I'll have to 180 on one of my townreads once my scumreads are all dead."
And yes, a lot of this oddly revolves around a greyice-hoopla interaction. I think they're scum together. The early hoopla-scum sprinkles might indicate town-hoopla, but it looks like it was just distancing that grey decided not to bother with since he inexplicably has a townread from everyone.
So on to that townread. Why is greyICE town, seraphim?
In post 698, Kagami wrote:In post 697, GreyICE wrote:Do you have any thoughts that happened during your enormous lurk-fest?
You are using this "wagon" on me as an excuse to avoid everything else that happens in this game. You get to be aTabula Rasaby tunneling. Is your plan to hope to get out of it on day 2? Or just salvage the SilverWolf slot by pushing one town lynch before you go down, and leave the least information possible in your ISO?
Who is town, Kagami? Who is scum? Do you have a town read on Seraphim? I know you have one on Sotty because "I voted for her" which is hilarious in and of itself.
Scum
GreyICE (TBD)
Hoopla (Confectionery Animals)
Zar Empire (The Westeros Circlejerk)
wgeurts (Young and Beautiful)
Metal Sonic (team nocaps)
Nachomamma8 (Gestalt)
ZZZX (TEAM WITH NO NAME)
EddieFenix (The Leftovers)
Seraphim (The Unviggable Vegetables)
Sotty7 (The Kliq)
Albert B. Rampage (Blue, Meth, Blade and Associates)
Town
Now it's your turn.
In post 2527, wgeurts wrote:Ooba please explain the MS, I'm interested.
However please vote grey, we're following a plan and if grey flips town then we can look into wagoning MS or Zar.
The last scum are in Zar/Grey/Mollie/ABR in order of likelyhood.
In post 360, Kagami wrote:ICE is scum, sotty will request a venge on him. He will try to wiggle out. We'll lynch him and his team will be painfully obvious from the events of today.
You of all people should be happy about that, eddie.
In post 383, Kagami wrote:If we're lynching sotty, I want greyICE dead tomorrow on a town-flip.
If we agree on this, I'll even bring the rope to the hanging tree. Yes, I get that ABR is a maverick, but I want some recognition that this should be a thing from everyone else.
Sadly, I don't actually believe anyone is going to let sotty dictate the lynch. I don't think that will happen even if we get to 6:4 (which is pretty much identical to 7:4 in terms of town-needed-to-be-dumb), because the greyICE-hoopla theory chat was probably just soft-distancing.
It legitimately is not a bad idea, though, and despite MS's statement to the contrary, mislynched town often have the best reads. That's usually why they're mislynched.
In post 390, Kagami wrote:In post 388, GreyICE wrote: Kagami is suddenly absolutely convinced I'm scum, but willing to hang Sotty first, because he likes my points on tokens.
Nope, but nice try. Sotty is town, you are not. The reason I'm ok with lynching sotty is that there's otherwise zero chance in this gamestate of lynching you, the actual scum. For strange cosmic reasons, a lot of people think you're town and they simply can't all be partners. Once you're lynched, your team has no prayer. As you correctly stated, this setup is a snowball-fest.
And please point me to when I "suddenly" became convinced, because I had you as scum on my first read through.
In post 416, Kagami wrote:GreyICE is scum.
Grey wants to lynch sotty. GreyICE pulls back when confronted with actual repercussions on a town-flip. That makes sotty 907% town.
Grey wants to townblock with hoopla, like, really wants to. For no reason. Then he's called on it. Now hoopla is maybe, kinda, not town, but definitely not someone he wants to lynch. Hoopla is a buddy.
Reread the game fresh with a greyice-hoopla scum perspective. It's magical how much things make sense.
In post 1143, Kagami wrote:I haven't "cleared" anyone, except maybe ABR and sotty after a GI scumflip. While I recognize it to be an unpopular opinion, "townblocking" is stupid. A vengeful strat has a wildly higher EV
In post 1168, Kagami wrote:That was back at 291 and can't possibly be confused as a vote associated with
"Seraphim is the one who intercepts, asks for why, and I oblige. This is where scum-seraphim votes kagami; it's a perfect alternative wagon for divided votes that ensures town lynches stay in the lead. I don't think I had votes at the time, but had plenty of negative sentiment, which is the juciest jump of all. He doesn't, and I see no scum motivation to change direction on GI regardless of grey's alignment. (I didn't really think of it in such depth initially, but it's worth being out there)"
This is a paragraph about seraphim being town. Not scum.
In post 1835, Sotty7 wrote:I will not lynch: ABR, wgeurts, GreyICE,Kagami
I am willing to lynch:Nacho, ZZZX, Zar
I want to lynch: Metal, Mollie, Ooba
In post 573, EddieFenix wrote:Who's replacing out. Sotty is town and apart of our ideal town block (MS, Kagami, ZZZX, Zar, and Myself).
In post 255, quadz08 wrote:
Deadline is 4/9 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-09 18:00:00).
In post 482, quadz08 wrote:
wgeurts is V/LA until 4/7.
Deadline is 4/9 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-09 18:00:00).
In post 522, quadz08 wrote:
wgeurts is V/LA until 4/7.
Deadline is 4/9 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-09 18:00:00).
In post 734, quadz08 wrote:
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
wgeurts is V/LA until 4/7.
Deadline is 4/9 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-09 18:00:00).
In post 1006, quadz08 wrote:
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
A lynch has been reached.
Hoopla was aVanilla Townie.
In post 1026, quadz08 wrote:
With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
Deadline is 4/18 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-18 18:00:00).
In post 1049, quadz08 wrote:
With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
Deadline is 4/18 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-18 18:00:00).
In post 1074, quadz08 wrote:
With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
GreyICE is V/LA through 4/11.
Deadline is 4/18 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-18 18:00:00).[/color][/b]
In post 1288, quadz08 wrote:
With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
Deadline is 4/18 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-18 18:00:00).
In post 1425, quadz08 wrote:
With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
Deadline is 4/18 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-18 18:00:00).
In post 1720, quadz08 wrote:
With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
Deadline is 4/18 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-18 18:00:00).
*ahem*
CALM THE FUCK DOWN. IT IS A GAME.
That will be all.
In post 1764, quadz08 wrote:
With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.
Deadline is 4/18 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-18 18:00:00).
[/quote]In post 2350, quadz08 wrote:
With 10 alive, it is 6 to lynch.
Deadline is 4/27 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-27 18:00:00).
In post 2536, ZZZX wrote:So both my town reads of mollie and metal are crumbling atm....
In post 2538, ooba wrote:In post 2536, ZZZX wrote:So both my town reads of mollie and metal are crumbling atm....
Welcome to the light my friend!!
In post 2233, Albert B. Rampage wrote:So Nach do you prefer Sotty or Kagami lynch tomorrow?
LAST WORDS! LAST WILL! ANY CHANGES???? (I KNOW YOU WILL)
EVERYTHING YOU SAY IS VERY IMPORTANT
IF WE LOSE IT IS ON YOU.
YOU WILL LEAD US TO VICTORY.
BE THE KING AND LORD FOR ALL OF US AND BRING US TO VICTORY
yeah if you have any changes to your plan because of that shitty opportunistic wagon composition (note: mollie + grey on the same wagon, sotty not even voting you) you really should give them before your heart stops
In post 2473, ooba wrote:In post 2465, ZZZX wrote:In post 2455, ooba wrote:Kagami is flipping town.
- D2: I wanted to lynch Sotty when Nacho was the play
- D4: I want to present my lynch choices when Kagami is the play
See any similarities?
You WILL GODDAMN WAIT AND LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY.
See the differance is this:
while nacho was obvtown and very contenful kagami was not and a lurksack + the "follow the plan" is in motion so that affects the situation too.
Thus your analysis is misguided.
We're past the point where isolated scum tells such 'Kagami is a lurksack' is valid reasons enough to push for a lynch.
You have a scum flip. You now have proved scum-??? interactions. You analyse them - you find scum and you lynch.
When pushing for a lynch - you now have to keep asking yourself 'Who the hell is scum with this person. So Sotty + Kagami + ??? + ??? - those other two'
Ok - you say GreyIce as a possible third? You analyse 'GreyIce' ~ 'Sotty' interactions. You'll come with the feeling that "HEY - THATS NOT A BUS" - and you'll know Grey is town.
So Grey is town? Who else can it be?
- wgeurts: Improbable because he had already made comments to the tune of 'Hey if nacho flips town lynch Kagami' on D2. Not going to do that with a scum partner.
- ZZZX: "Hey Guys what about Kagami?" on D2 and the pace of voting now - impossible to be a scum partner
- ABR with his instant vote on Kagami D3? - Nope
- Zar voted Kagami D2 when bussing was the best and far superior option. - Nope
- ooba? My first entry of the game was "Nacho-Ice sure town. One of Sotty\Kagami def scum" -> Really a double bus first post? Nope
That leaves MS and mollie.I can't remember anything from memory that particularly counters these pairings.
So could be {Sotty, Kagami, MS, mollie} - literally the only pairing that makes sense with Kagami scum. But when you have a town lean on mollie - but a 'at least I townread this slot before; I shouldn't question my early town reads' on MS - you realise even that is kinda not probable.
Hence your initial assumption was wrong. The building comes crumbling down - and only one thought survives the chaos that ensues. 'Kagami is town' and you are pretty certain of it.