Newbie 1592: The Masquerade -- Game Over!

[Nero Cain]

@Nero: Who do you think is likely to be scum other than Futan?

ilholm, pist, xay but I'll explain more in depth when I get back.

[insanity018]

Xayzeck has been prodded.

[Futan]

How am I supposed to tell if you are uninterested town and scum active lurking.

If you liked Stab's replies, who do you want dead and why?

You aren't. See below.

@Futan: Overall reads if possible.

If I assume my current reads are correct then scum are Pistachion and Ilhom. I still read yourself and Xay as town. Leaning town on Stab and Nero, although Nero seems to have it in for me.

When I've got some time I'll go and see what I can find to back up my reads. Unfortunately on 16 hour work days due to nearing go live date on a project.

Project go live is Thursday, I'm V/LA till then.

[Xayzeck]

Sorry, prepping for a competition that happens tomorrow, so haven't really had time. Let me catch up now/tonight

[insanity018]

Votecount 2.9 (unchanged)

Futan

(2): Nero Cain, Xayzeck

(L-2)

Stabulous

(2): Ilhom, pistachi0n

(L-2)

pistachi0n

(2): Stabulous, juckter

(L-2)

Not Voting

(1): Futan

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-04-27 21:15:00)

[Nero Cain]

@Nero: Who do you think is likely to be scum other than Futan?

ilholm, pist, xay but I'll explain more in depth when I get back.

FOLLOW UP

me, stab and juck are still town. wich leaves the other 4.

iholm's stab case is pretty poor. Could he make a poor case as scum? Yea. There is also a line of theory that scum wouldn't draw so much attention to himself and his case is doing just that.

I think Xay's d1 case on pist was p horrible. And I felt like her "whoops, I put someone in hammer range" and "hey look, Zay is town." looked both p town but I'm worried that her constant backing down is an act and her defense of Xay is protecting a buddy/town cred. Or maybe I'm just a little salty over her scumread on me, which is totes junk btw.

but we have a 50% chance of hitting scum in Xay/Iholm/pist/futan and a 66/33% chance tomorrow depending on what happens today.

Also today is the optimal day for any claims.

[Stabulous]

Also today is the optimal day for any claims.

For scum, maybe. I don't see how a town doctor claim helps us at all given it's still 50/50 real/fake claim and we're out another PR. Can I invoke "IC's can't lie about game theory" and ask you to explain why?

[Nero Cain]

IF we go into tomorrow with both scum alive mafia could just CC and we'd have one of those silly 1v1. But I see your concern and understand. Its like risk vs. reward.

[Stabulous]

I'll ask again, how would a real doctor claiming help us right now?

[juckter]

I agree a doc claim doesn't really help us much, however what Nero says is true. If we mislynch someone, and there is a nightkill, then we'll almost certainly be in LyLo tomorrow in a pretty bad position. Please (everyone) post your reads as thoroughly as possible.

[Nero Cain]

I'll ask again, how would a real doctor claiming help us right now?

It helps avoid one of those sill 1v1s. Like its game theory bro.

[Ilhom]

Sorry about my lack of content, next few days will be busy for me too so I'm going to post a lengthy analysis. Enjoy the wall.

In a world where Stabulous is scum:
Town: Ilhom, pistachi0n, Futan
Futan and Stabulous's previous interactions, Futan putting Stabulous at L-1 early in the day, and him being the other vote on Tetaes after mafia made a night kill within the votes makes me believe they cannot be mafia partners.
I also cannot see Stabulous deflecting off himself to start a wagon on pistachi0n early in this day if they were partners. Along with pistachi0n wanting him dead.

This leaves Xayzeck, juckter, and Nero.
juckter is the second vote on pistachi0n. If he was scum I would expect him to keep a distance from Stabulous and vote on Futan, which is what Nero and Xayzeck both did. His general play has also been towny.
Xayzeck has been my towniest read for this game, although he's been sitting back a lot more this day. Nothing he's done seems scummy to me though.
Nero would probably be #2 mafia in this scenario. He came out to defend Stabulous, then puts his vote on Futan to try to distance himself from Stabulous. Him trying to discredit my argument was extremely weak after he tried to misrepresent what I was saying.

--------

If I'm wrong on Stabulous:
Town: Ilhom, Stabulous, Xayzeck, juckter
Obviously if I'm wrong on Stabulous then he's town.
Xayzeck and juckter I both read as town, and can't really find anything inherently scummy about either.

This leaves Futan, Nero, and pistachi0n.
This means there would be a combination of Futan/pistachi0n or Nero/pistachi0n. I could see it going either way.

--------

If Xayzeck and juckter both vote for pistachi0n, I will hammer.
If I'm wrong and she flips mafia, then it's most likely Futan or Nero as 2nd scum which backs up my Xayzeck and juckter town read. The reason is that if Xayzeck is somehow mafia he could just disagree with the pistachi0n lynch and just sit on his Futan vote (which could happen if he's town, too). Plus, he would had to set up a pretty early bus since he had a early vote on pistachi0n yesterday and still has suspicions on her. juckter is in a similar case, early scum lean on her along with his vote on her during RVS. All of that combined with their towny play, I don't see either being partners with pistachi0n especially if they both vote on her since they know I will hammer.

Now if I'm right and pistachi0n flips town, that would be okay because it would confirm that Stabulous is mafia and deflected onto pistachi0n, a person a good chunk of people had suspicion on yesterday, for the easy miss lynch. Nero would be the most likely second mafia here as stated before. juckter I can't see being the partner in this case because I would expect him to distance himself from Stabulous with his vote after putting a FoS on him. It's actually possible Xayzeck could be the second mafia in this scenario which is the thing I'm most afraid of.

[Xayzeck]

I failed to catch up last night kinda cuz I had no time and I didn't have very insightful things to add, sorry about that

[juckter]

I'll give a similar analysis to Ilhom. Assuming someone is scum, I believe these are their potential scumbuddies:

Stabulous: Nero, Futan
Futan: Stabulous, Ilhom, Xayzeck
Ilhom: Futan, pistachi0n, Xayzeck, Nero
pistachi0n: Ilhom, Xayzeck, Nero
Nero: Stabulous, pistachi0n, Ilhom
Xayzeck: Ilhom, pistachi0n, Futan

Mainly PoE:

Xay's reactions to Stab voting him earlier seem natural enough to not see it as bussing. Ilhom and pistachi0n still voting Stab and contnuing to pressure him make those teams unlikely. Stab-Futan interactions have been volatile enough to still consider them a possible team. Nero has been pushing Futan enough to make a team seem unlikely, and pist's early supposed L-1 attempt seems really cocky if she's scum with Futan. Nero/Xay seems natural enogh to not find it likely. Other teams don't really have strong enough interactions to be discarded. If I'm right and pistachi0n is scum, we ahould analyze Nero, Xay and Ilhom as possible buddies.

[Stabulous]

So doc doesn't claim today, we lynch town and someone's nightkilled. Great, we're in lylo. Two doctors immediately claim, a 1v1 where we have a 50% chance of hitting scum vs losing. Sounds good to me. Certainly no worse than doc claiming, we mislynch, doc is NK'd immediately, and we're in lylo with a 2/5 chance of hitting scum vs losing.

Explain to me how this "silly 1v1" isn't our only chance.

[Nero Cain]

I don't think that's what I'm saying.

[Stabulous]

Then tell me exactly what you are saying, and why doctor claiming isn't actually the worst possible thing they can do.

[Nero Cain]

A doc claim avoids a 1v1. That's all I was saying. You ARE right that any doctor claim isn't helpful to the town which only goes to strengthen my town read on you./

[Stabulous]

"Today is the optimal day for any claims." This is what you said. You did not say "Doctor claiming today avoids a 1v1". In actuality, claiming is one of the worst things doctor could do right now. You're not going to get out of this by buddying me.

[Stabulous]

All you have to do is justify objectively why "today is the optimal day for any claims", and since you're an IC it's unfortunately a very unfair test to see if you're scum or not.

[Nero Cain]

not buddying you.

day 2 IS the optimal day for claims, theory wise. I do have to teach theory as an IC.

but also, I read folks by reactions.

[Nero Cain]

like, reaction testing is gold.

[Stabulous]

Your argument is this: When you said "Today is the optimal day for any claims", you were not calling for a doctor claim because you agree that's a bad idea. You were just telling us that in general d2 is the best day for claims, but not in this situation.

Am I incorrect?

[Nero Cain]

si and also judging reactions

[Xayzeck]

Doc isn't the only PR possible in this game, there can still be other claims, yknow just fyi

Anyway Stab is town.I'm a little undecided on Ilhom, gut says lean town.